Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
4 of 5 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 12 Mar 2025 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Howard Marks
10
30 Mar 2015 – 12 Jun 2026
-3635 d
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Brad Gerstner
3
thin
12 Mar 2025 – 6 Feb 2026
+0 d
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Gavin Baker
1
thin
9 Dec 2025 – 9 Dec 2025
+272 d
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Marc Rowan
1
thin
21 Dec 2025 – 21 Dec 2025
+284 d
- John Williams 2 thin
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Howard Marks
Marks argues investors must not assume likely outcomes will occur, unlike in physical sciences where determinism applies.
“you should not act as if the things that should happen are the things that will happen. Again, in the world of the physical sciences, you can probably bet that that's true.”
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“Even when it's over, you can't tell. Was that a safe investment that it was sure to produce a double? Or was it a risky investment where you got lucky?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says CEO uncertainty from tariff negotiations forces real decisions on pricing and supply chains.
“They gotta make real life decisions about what do I do with prices, what do I do with my supply chain, etcetera.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner explains recent market decline as rising uncertainty increasing discount rates and compressing multiples.
“When uncertainty goes up, discount rates go up, risk premiums go up, multiples come down, markets come down. That's that's the explanation for the last four weeks in the market.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says no one on earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre-training work, it's an empirical observation.
“And that's important because no one on planet earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre training work. It's actually not a law.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan says consulting firms' 2030 energy forecasts are wildly scattered, showing data center equity is a fundamental bet.
“The fact is if experts looking out not all that far have no idea, we are making a fundamental bet on equity.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner describes exponential AI change creating fog of war where investors cannot predict 35 years of cash flows.
“Fog of war. I can't predict thirty five years into the future of those free cash flows, so I have to pull it in a little bit.”
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Howard Marks
Marks cites Dimson saying the future is a probability distribution, not a single outcome that can be predicted.
“The future is not a set single thing that if you're smart enough, you can figure it out what it's going to be and it's going to materialize and make you right.”
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Howard Marks
Marks argues the future is a probability distribution of possibilities, not a single predictable outcome.
“It's a probability distribution. It's a range of possibilities in each thing, whether it's GDP growth next year or inflation next year, or who's going to win the next election,”
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Howard Marks
Marks argues anyone claiming to know AI's trajectory doesn't understand the situation; we're in the first inning.
“I would say if you think you know what's gonna happen, you don't know understand what's going on. We're at the we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable game.”
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Howard Marks
Marks says if you think you know what will happen with AI, you don't understand what's going on.
“I would say if you think you know what's gonna happen, you don't know understand what's going on.”
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Howard Marks
Marks says we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable AI game with unknown rules.
“We're at the we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable game. We don't know what the rules are or or have any idea how many innings there are in the game.”
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Howard Marks
Marks questions whether AI models trained on same history can produce different investment outcomes.
“Are some AI models smarter than others? Since they all have super IQs, computing power, and they all are trained on the same history, are some smarter than others?”
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Howard Marks
Marks states nobody can specify what AI will do, when, for whom, or how much profit it will produce.
“I've never heard anybody tell me exactly what AI will be able to do or when or for whom or how much profit it'll produce and for whom.”
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Howard Marks
Marks calls AI the hardest thing he has ever seen in investing due to enormous uncertainty.
“This is the hardest thing I think I've ever seen in the investment world because of this enormous degree of uncertainty.”
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John Williams
Williams states optimal reserve supply under uncertainty is unequivocally higher than without uncertainty when no lending facility exists.
“Absent a lending facility, the optimal supply of reserves under uncertainty is unequivocally higher than it is without uncertainty.”
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John Williams
Williams says high uncertainty can make abundant reserves optimal even when target spread suggests ample reserves region.
“Indeed, if the uncertainty is great enough, the optimal level of reserves can exceed the cutoff for abundant reserves under no uncertainty.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- CNBC Television also carries Brad Gerstner and Howard Marks on this subject, at different times.