Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
4 of 5 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 22 May 2025 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Brad Gerstner
6
28 Sep 2023 – 20 Jun 2025
-602 d
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Howard Marks
4
thin
21 Feb 2024 – 21 Feb 2026
-456 d
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David Friedberg
1
thin
22 May 2025 – 22 May 2025
+0 d
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Marc Rowan
1
thin
10 Dec 2025 – 10 Dec 2025
+202 d
- Dylan Patel 1 thin 22 Jul 2026 – 22 Jul 2026 +426 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner cites Kashkari's June 2021 forecast of no rate hikes until 2024 as evidence of Fed miscalculation.
“He says we're not gonna have rate hikes until 2024. That's how wrong the Fed's forecast was in June 2021 because they were making the argument that inflation was transient.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner recalls NVIDIA data center revenue forecasts shifted from -6% to +25% last year.
“Think about NVIDIA at the start of last year. Data center revenues were expected to shrink by 6%. Right?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Altimeter's NVIDIA numbers remain well above Street consensus for this year.
“Our numbers are still well above the street for this year. I think there's a lot of doubt. You know, the the common, discussion at the end of last year”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner cites Morgan Stanley research showing super cycles are systematically underestimated by about 40% at their start.
“When I think about what's going on here of course they show they went back and did some math against initial estimates and said, you know, super cycles are about 40% underestimated at the start.”
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Howard Marks
Marks criticizes daily market commentary writers who predict the future and are only right half the time on average.
“And if if they ever kept a scorecard on the things that they wrote about what's gonna happen tomorrow, they would see that on average they get it right half the time”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says NVIDIA EPS was forecast at $5.70 but ended up at $25, far exceeding expectations.
“The EPS at the beginning of last year, the earnings per share was expected to be $5.70, and now it looks like it's gonna be $25.”
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“I can design a project plan to get me to the moon in five years for less than a billion dollars.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes 1990s experts wrongly predicted debt-to-GDP would rise to 80%; instead it fell from 60 to 40.
“in 1993, debt to GDP was supposed to go from 40 to or 60 to 80 by experts, it in fact went from 60 to 40. Yes. So experts can be wrong by a lot.”
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Howard Marks
Marks cites JPMorgan chart showing negative correlation between S&P 500 PE ratios and subsequent ten-year returns.
“And it was a negative correlation, which means the higher the PE ratio you pay, the lower the return you should expect.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan says consulting firms' 2030 energy forecasts are wildly inconsistent, resembling a scattered plot.
“And each of the good and the great consulting firms have weighed in, and it looks like a child scattered dark plot.”
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Howard Marks
Marks cites Dimson saying the future is a probability distribution, not a single outcome that can be predicted.
“The future is not a set single thing that if you're smart enough, you can figure it out what it's going to be and it's going to materialize and make you right.”
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Howard Marks
Marks argues the future is a probability distribution of possibilities, not a single predictable outcome.
“It's a probability distribution. It's a range of possibilities in each thing, whether it's GDP growth next year or inflation next year, or who's going to win the next election,”
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Dylan Patel
Patel claims AI task length is doubling every seven months, leaving no time for companies to wait.
“AI task length, right? The amount of time that an AI model can work on any specific job is increasing by 2x every seven months.”
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