Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
2 of 4 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 6 May 2025 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Brad Gerstner
7
26 Oct 2023 – 11 Jul 2026
-558 d
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David Friedberg
3
thin
6 May 2025 – 16 May 2025
+0 d
- Dylan Patel 12 18 Aug 2025 – 25 Aug 2026 +104 d
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Gavin Baker
1
thin
15 May 2026 – 15 May 2026
+374 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says professional analysts predicted NVIDIA data center revenue would decline 6 percent, highlighting how wrong forecasts were.
“The consensus estimate for NVIDIA this year was that data center growth revenue growth was gonna be negative 6%. Right? That's the pros. They got it that wrong.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner states consensus Nvidia estimate for next year is around $3.50 per share.
“the consensus estimate for next year for Nvidia, I think is around $3.50 per share.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner's Nvidia estimate is closer to $5 per share, ahead of consensus since fall 2022.
“we're we're closer to $5 a share. We've been ahead of the consensus estimate since the fall of twenty two.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg states US will add one terawatt by 2040 while China adds five terawatts, excluding gen four nuclear.
“The US is forecasted to increase its electricity production capacity from one to two terawatts by twenty forty, fifteen years from now.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg predicts robotics breakthrough in one to two years will add 100 million electrified robots in US.
“There's gonna be a breakthrough in the next year or two that's gonna unleash this additional demand curve. We're gonna have a 100,000,000 robots in The United States. They're all electrified.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg notes US electricity capacity doubles to 2040 while China's triples from three to eight terawatts.
“Terawatt is roughly the power production or the electricity production capacity of the entire United States. US is going from one to two between now and 2040.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner calculates Microsoft could reach $7 trillion market cap in ten years growing at just 7% annually.
“the largest company, Microsoft, today is like 3 and onetwo trillion. Let's say that Microsoft, I don't know, doubles in ten years. It would only be growing at 7% per year.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel forecasts NVIDIA revenue exceeding $300 billion next year as infrastructure spending reaches nation-state scale.
“NVIDIA's revenue this year is gonna be, like, over $200,000,000,000, and next year expects over 300,000,000,000 plus Google's gonna spend, like, $50,000,000,000 on TPU data centers.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel forecasts hyperscaler CapEx at $455-500 billion for next year versus Wall Street consensus of $360 billion.
“The consensus for the banks is $360,000,000,000 of spend next year across all of them. And my number is closer to, like it's, like, $45,500.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner cites NVIDIA forecast of $200B revenue this year growing to $350B in five years, equating to specific gigawatts.
“This is the NVIDIA sell side forecast. Okay? Forecast this year is for about 200,000,000,000 in revenues, growing to about 350,000,000,000 in revenues over the next five years.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel states Oracle will grow from one fifth Microsoft's size to bigger by end of 2027 at 35% margins.
“Oracle is going from like one fifth your size to bigger than you by end of twenty twenty seven.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel estimates Microsoft's 2028 capacity is three and a half gigawatts lower than forecasted due to paused buildouts.
“And then the other one is, given our estimates on what your capacity is in 2028, is three and a half gigawatts lower? Sure, you could have dedicated that to OpenAI training and inference capacity.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel states AI labs are projecting one hundred billion dollars in revenue by 2027-2028 with 2-3x growth.
“So, these labs are now projecting revenues of 100,000,000,000 in 2728, and they're projecting revenue keeps growing at this rate of like 3x, 2x”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says the major tech companies will spend over $500 billion on AI capex this year.
“The spending, the CapEx from that group alone is gonna be over $500,000,000,000 this year.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts AI startup revenue will exceed $100 billion by end of year, calling it unbelievable to most.
“by the end of the year do how many people even believe by the end of the year AI startup revenue is over a $100,000,000,000?”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts AI startup revenue will exceed $100 billion by end of year, a claim few believe.
“I think that's an insane statement for a lot of people, but that's what it's gonna be. Yeah. Right? And who believes that number? Right? It's like Yeah. Very few people.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Anthropic's $300 billion revenue target for end of decade is actually too conservative.
“when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have $300,000,000,000 of revenue by the end of the decade. And it's like, actually, I think that number's too low.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts AI industry will hit $100 billion ARR by end of 2025, with China 10x lower.
“And then what's the economic value of that $100,000,000,000? Now, how much of that is in China? Right? Like, China's number is probably 10 x lower.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts Google will have zero cash flow profit in 2027, spending all revenue on AI infrastructure.
“There's no reason why Google will have any profit in '27 at all, right, in terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make on on AI infrastructure.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts Anthropic revenue will grow from $19B to $60B by year end amid majority-negative AI sentiment.
“The sentiment is already more than half Americans have a negative view of AI. As we fast forward to the end of this year, as Anthropix revenue goes from 19,000,000,000 to maybe 60, and OpenAI is similar, if not higher, the amount of jobs that get supplemented, the amount of change that happens in society,”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says he would take the over on every AI capex and demand number given by other speakers.
“And I would just say, I take the over on every number that they gave. Every single number. As what I think, you know, they're conservative guys.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner predicts AI companies ending the year over $100B could triple to quintuple revenue next year.
“If these guys end the year over 100,000,000,000, I think that they're on a revenue trajectory that they could three to five x again next year.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts AI labs will scale from tens of billions to trillions in annual spending by decade's end.
“As we go out into '28, it's gonna be more than $2,000,000,000,000. The labs are also taking an increasing percentage of this.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- All-In Podcast also carries Brad Gerstner and David Friedberg on this subject, at different times.