Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
3 of 11 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 1 May 2023 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Bill Gurley
8
1 Oct 2010 – 31 Jul 2025
-4595 d
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Gavin Baker
6
26 Nov 2019 – 9 Dec 2025
-1252 d
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David Friedberg
17
21 May 2020 – 8 Aug 2026
-1075 d
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Sir Richard Dearlove
3
thin
29 Oct 2020 – 9 Jan 2026
-914 d
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Brad Gerstner
9
3 Mar 2023 – 15 Jun 2026
-59 d
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Marc Rowan
8
1 May 2023 – 16 Apr 2026
+0 d
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Howard Marks
5
21 Feb 2024 – 12 Jun 2026
+296 d
- Dylan Patel 5 21 Jan 2025 – 13 May 2026 +631 d
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Howard Lutnick
4
thin
12 Mar 2025 – 27 Aug 2026
+681 d
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David Sacks
6
10 Jan 2026 – 4 Sep 2026
+985 d
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Chamath Palihapitiya
4
thin
30 Jan 2026 – 4 Sep 2026
+1005 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Bill Gurley
Gurley predicts staying private will eventually cost more than going public for some companies.
“Well, at some point, I think they're gonna be spending more dollars avoiding public than being public. It's just going be more of a hassle.”
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“we spent the last thirty to forty years putting computing technology inside the enterprise Right. And we're gonna spend the next ten pulling it out.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley recalls predictions from five years ago that venture capital would become obsolete due to cheap startup costs.
“If you go back about five years, a whole bunch of people said, well Venture's dead because there's infinite angel money and you can start a company for cheap and you won't need Venture anymore.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley predicts the next ten years will involve removing enterprise technology and moving systems outside via SaaS.
“I say we spent forty years cramming technology into the enterprise. We're going to spend the next ten yanking it out. It's just so wholesale that you're moving systems outside.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley predicts Hyperloop will achieve over 700 mph on a two-mile track within twenty-four months.
“So the prediction is we'll have Hyperloop working in about twenty four months on a two mile track and hit over 700 miles per hour, and we can go faster than that.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker predicts most people will spend most waking hours in virtual worlds within current lifetimes.
“I think it is inevitable that a majority of people will spend a majority of their waking hours in virtual worlds within our lifetimes.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker predicts a majority of people will spend most waking hours in the metaverse within his lifetime.
“The metaverse is simply a series of connected virtual worlds that I firmly believe a majority of people will spend a majority of their waking hours in within my lifetime.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg admits he vastly overestimated lockdown effectiveness, predicting under 20,000 deaths and return to work by April 7.
“I was like, Oh, April 7, we'll be back to work. And I also had a bet going with you guys and I said, gonna have less than twenty thousand deaths in The US.”
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“One of the things that, you know, I have a strong belief in is like, I think in twenty years we could kind of eradicate all infectious disease.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg predicts all infectious disease could be eradicated in 20 years if not for regulatory obstacles.
“I think in twenty years we could kind of eradicate all infectious disease. The only thing holding that up is regulation because the science is known.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg predicts staged vaccine release starting Q4 of 2020 with parallel production ramp-up underway.
“I think there's gonna be a staged release of vaccines that'll probably believe it or not, start in q four of this year, and there's been production ramp up going on in parallel to testing.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg admits he was wrong about vegetarian meat alternatives; consumers pay premiums for sustainability.
“I've been fucking shocked by how many people are choosing to pay a premium for vegetarian meat alternatives. I was wrong on this.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg admits he was wrong about plant-based meat, having bet against companies because he thought consumers needed cheaper prices.
“I didn't bet against them, but I chose not to bet for them because I made the argument consumers will only buy stuff that's cheaper and taste as good, and I was wrong.”
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Sir Richard Dearlove
Dearlove predicts US and China will establish a new security system within five years, replacing Pax Americana.
“So Pax Americana will become for those of you who are Latinists, Pax Americana et Sericana.”
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Sir Richard Dearlove
Dearlove predicts a return to nineteenth-century style congress of nations forming alliances and groups.
“what we're going to see is some sort of congress of nations along the line of the nineteenth century, where nation states enter alliances or groups, and that will sort of order the international scene.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley predicts more vertical-specific talent marketplaces will emerge, fragmenting LinkedIn's horizontal model.
“People have talked about kind of, you know, the opening up of LinkedIn where people go into more specific verticals and are able to drive better outcomes, real work opportunities right away.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg describes his childhood prediction about superconductors transforming the world, noting thirty years later not much has changed.
“And I said and I have my board, and I said, here's all the things you're gonna be able to do with superconductors in the future, and it's gonna totally change the world.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg predicts energy production should increase 100-fold over the next century versus 20-fold in the last.
“So we've increased energy production by about 20 fold in the last hundred years on earth. I think in the next hundred years, we can and should increase energy production by over a 100 fold.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says AI is a platform shift as big as internet or mobile, potentially bigger.
“I have to agree with Doug that this is a platform shift on the same magnitude as the internet or mobile itself. In fact, it may be bigger than both of those.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan predicts regional banking business models will fundamentally transform within five years.
“I'll be shocked if five years from now the business model of a regional bank looks like what they do today.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan predicts high net worth retail investors will allocate 50% to alternatives within five years.
“I think retail investors high net worth are gonna be 50% allocated to alternatives in the next five years. Now 50.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner predicts next year will see more compute deployed globally than in all of human history combined.
“We're going to deploy more compute on a global basis next year than all the compute ever deployed by humanity combined. That's how much compute is going to drive these training models.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner claims AI will be bigger than the Internet in economic productivity impact despite near-term disillusionment ahead.
“But my my sense here is, you know, and I've said the AI is gonna be bigger than the Internet itself in terms of impact on economic productivity.”
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Howard Marks
Marks criticizes daily market commentary writers who predict the future and are only right half the time on average.
“And if if they ever kept a scorecard on the things that they wrote about what's gonna happen tomorrow, they would see that on average they get it right half the time”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley predicted black car marketplace would work better than taxi due to less friction before finding Uber
“Because there's going to be less friction and we're going to be able to use the tools that entrepreneurs know how to use to be successful.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg predicts the world will be surprised by ag and food productivity acceleration in the next ten years.
“I think the world will be surprised by how much we see acceleration and advancement in productivity in ag and food systems in the next ten years.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg predicts the world will be surprised by acceleration in agricultural productivity over the next decade.
“I think the world will be surprised by how much we see acceleration and advancement in productivity in ag and food systems in the next ten years.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan predicts investors won't distinguish between public and private investment grade credit within 18 months.
“Eighteen months from now, I do not believe investors will actually know the difference between investment grade public and investment grade private.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner predicts AI super cycle will be bigger than internet, mobile, and cloud combined.
“I think this super cycle is going to be bigger than all the other super cycles put together like I think this is what we're going to be investing again against for decades to come.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker predicts big businesses will pay a million dollars for AI to think for six weeks on key questions.
“I think you're if you're a big business and you can pay a million dollars to let an AI think for six weeks about the most important question for your business, that's gonna be a profound advantage relative to small businesses that can't afford that.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker predicts America will achieve over 5% real GDP growth in one year due to AI and deregulation.
“I think that America over the next at some point over the next four years will print at least one year of greater than 5% GDP growth, real GDP growth.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg explains LLMs are text predictors, reframing AI as prediction engines applied to genomics.
“They were able to suck up all the text on the internet and use that text to make a prediction on what the answer should be”
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“Or or that's what it looks like based on or, you know, one gigawatt in twenty twenty six ish. And Meta's Meta's, like, trying to do, like, two gigawatts by early to mid twenty seven.”
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Howard Lutnick
Lutnick predicts Trump will balance the budget and interest rates will drop 150 basis points during his term.
“Let Donald Trump is going to balance the budget of The United States Of America. Interest rates are gonna drop a 150 basis points during his term.”
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Howard Lutnick
Lutnick predicts interest rates will drop 150 basis points during Trump's term along with energy prices.
“Interest rates are gonna drop a 150 basis points during his term. Oil and our gas prices are gonna come smashing down. Egg prices come smashing down.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg predicts mitotherapy could become a major new treatment modality for many diseases based on recent research.
“So this opens up the door to this whole new therapeutic modality, a new type of therapy called mitotherapy or mitochondrial therapy that based on the series of papers that we're seeing coming out recently, I believe could end up becoming a really incredible new therapy that may ultimately lead to the treatment for many diseases”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says they overestimated short-term internet impact but dramatically underestimated the long term.
“We thought we knew everything about the internet. We knew it was going to change the world forever. And it turns out we overestimated what it was going to do in the short term, right?”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts China will stop open sourcing AI models once ahead and closed source will ultimately win.
“China's open sourcing stuff only because they're behind the moment they're ahead, they will stop open sourcing stuff. And at the end of the day, closed source will win. Unfortunately, closed source will win.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley predicts new US entrants will co-evolve with Chinese models without national identity like Linux.
“I think you're gonna see new entrants pop up that try to co evolve with the Chinese models. You know, is Linux American? Is Linux Chinese?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner forecasts major China deal after Trump visit planned for September through November timeframe.
“They've invited the president to China. The president has suggested he's going to go to China the first week of September, sometime between September and November.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says neo clouds must scale massively, add software, accept real estate returns, or go bankrupt.
“you either have to go, like, really, really big, or you need to move into the software layer, or you just make commercial real estate, or you go bankrupt.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan predicts large manufacturing and consumer companies will remain private in the future.
“It will not surprise me to have large manufacturing consumer companies that are private in the future.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan predicts a private company index will exist alongside the S&P 500.
“It will not surprise me that we end up with an S and P 500 index and an index of companies that are private.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg predicts democracies end with a whimper not a bang, referencing his own All In episode seven forecast.
“Pull this up, this clip from this is episode seven of All In. I don't think democracies end with a bang. I think they end with a whimper.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker predicts xAI will release the first Blackwell model because Elon builds data centers fastest.
“I think the first Blackwell model will come from xAI. And the reason for that is just according to Jensen, no one builds data centers faster than Elon.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker predicts data centers in space will be the most important development in three to four years.
“I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world, in this world, in the next three to four years is data centers in space.”
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Sir Richard Dearlove
Dearlove previously predicted Iran's regime would fall in 2026 and stands by it.
“I had to make a podcast prediction for 2026 three weeks ago, and I said fall of the Iranian regime in 2026. I think I'm going to see that”
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David Sacks
Sacks predicts a rush for the exits from California if the wealth tax gets on the ballot in April.
“If it gets on the ballot, you know, again, we'll know in just a few months, there's gonna be a huge freak out.”
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David Sacks
Sacks argues AI will increase demand for knowledge workers by making code cheaper, following Jevons Paradox.
“So the amount of software generated in the economy was limited by that. I think it's gonna increase massively now because the cost of generating code is coming down so much.”
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Palihapitiya predicts marrying next-gen systems to open source will cut AI costs by 90 percent.
“If you take these next generation systems and you marry them to open source, you're gonna cut the cost of AI by 90%.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts AMD will remain in single-digit percentage market share despite being credible competitor.
“I don't think they'll go beyond, like I think they'll stay in single digits market share, single digit percentage market share. Yeah. Single digit percentage market share”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan predicts individuals will match institutions in size for alternative investments.
“All of a sudden, we have this second thing called individuals. And I predict that individuals will be at least as big as institutions in their alternative bucket.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan predicts individual investors will match institutional scale in alternative investments.
“I predict that individuals will be at least as big as institutions in their alternative bucket.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says AI will be bigger than the Internet, the fourth super cycle he has lived through.
“I've lived through four, the Internet, cloud computing, mobile computing, and now we're entering the age of AI. It will be bigger than the Internet itself.”
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Howard Marks
Marks argues anyone claiming to know AI's trajectory doesn't understand the situation; we're in the first inning.
“I would say if you think you know what's gonna happen, you don't know understand what's going on. We're at the we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable game.”
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Howard Marks
Marks says if you think you know what will happen with AI, you don't understand what's going on.
“I would say if you think you know what's gonna happen, you don't know understand what's going on.”
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Howard Marks
Marks warns that anyone claiming to know AI's future doesn't understand the situation, comparing it to the first inning.
“if you think you know what's gonna happen, you don't know understand what's going on. We're at the we're in the first inning”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg estimates a $15 to $30 trillion annual economic opportunity on the moon with high business multiples.
“I actually think there's probably a 15 to $30,000,000,000,000 a year economic opportunity on the moon. That kind of a business, like you're gonna see with SpaceX's IPO, is gonna have an insane multiple.”
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David Sacks
Sacks predicts AI-generated code will grow from 5% today to 95%, offering to bet any amount.
“So number one is, with respect to this market for code or code tokens, whatever you wanna call it, it might be 5% today, meaning 5% of the codes AI generated versus human generated.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan predicts five tech companies will be among ten largest investment-grade issuers within five years.
“The 10 largest issuers of IG five years from now, if everything holds, are gonna be five large tech companies and five large banks.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner predicts NVIDIA will be the first $10 trillion company and still believes this in May 2026.
“I've said before, I think NVIDIA will be the first $10,000,000,000,000 company. I you know, as I sit here, you know, in in May '26, I believe that to be true.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts reasoning chains will close as AI response times extend from immediate to hours or days.
“And then as the horizon of AI models gets longer, right, rather than a question answer immediately, the question answer becomes ten minutes, hours, days, the value of all the reasoning is gone.”
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David Sacks
Sacks claims vindication as AI job narrative shifted from loss to gains, matching his January prediction.
“And over the past week, you've now seen the narrative shift, I would say almost completely, towards that position.”
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Howard Marks
Marks wrote that if AI exuberance doesn't produce a money-losing bubble, it will be the first technological innovation not to.
“So I wrote in a memo recently this year, and I think it's true that if this technological innovation with its exuberance doesn't produce a money losing bubble, it'll be the first.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner predicts SpaceX will become the largest AI hyperscaler in the United States within a few years.
“My estimate is in a few years, they're gonna be the largest AI hyperscaler in The United States.”
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Palihapitiya predicts CEOs and CFOs will discover unexpected AI token spending when earnings miss by pennies.
“I suspect what'll happen is one day, you're gonna have a miss, and EPS will be off by a few pennies.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg predicts wave of AI-native operators acquiring stale first-generation digital businesses to unlock AI opportunities.
“And when you take a look at those businesses as a modern day AI operator, you're like, what the hell? This thing is so underutilized.”
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David Sacks
Sacks predicts AI capex will deliver returns and calls current volatility temporary and leverage-amplified.
“I think there will be a return on all of this capex and this is temporary market volatility amplified by leverage.”
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“Starlink alone could be generating on the order of $40,000,000,000 of revenue top line with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash. That could be a $30,000,000,000 free cash flow within the year.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg predicts Starlink alone could reach trillion dollar market cap within eighteen months.
“The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within two years, within eighteen months, let's say.”
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Howard Lutnick
Lutnick predicts Canadian negotiators will return after October elections to complete the deal.
“These are elections in October. So he's making this a political thing for Canada, and my guess will be as soon as his elections are over, you're gonna see a plane full of Canadian negotiators flying down and go, come on.”
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Howard Lutnick
Lutnick predicts Canadian negotiators will return immediately after October elections to finalize the deal they walked away from.
“So he's making this a political thing for Canada, and my guess will be as soon as his elections are over, you're gonna see a plane full of Canadian negotiators flying down”
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Palihapitiya predicts AGI-level capabilities will be matched by open source alternatives within three to four months.
“I also think that these capabilities will be matched or close to matched by a handful of closed source alternatives and open source alternatives probably within the next three or four months.”
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Palihapitiya predicts AI euphoria will continue for another three years before market correction.
“I honestly, I don't see this stopping. We're at the beginning of the beginning. I think it's gonna be like this for another probably three years.”
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David Sacks
Sacks predicts San Francisco ultra luxury real estate could reach $5,000 per square foot.
“I think the ultra luxury market in San Francisco could easily go to 5,000 a foot.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- Chamath Palihapitiya and David Sacks — All-In Podcast, 1 appearance together
- Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner — BG2 Pod, 1 appearance together
- CNBC Television also carries Bill Gurley, Chamath Palihapitiya, Howard Marks and Marc Rowan on this subject, at different times.
- All-In Podcast also carries Brad Gerstner, David Friedberg and Gavin Baker on this subject, at different times.