“One of the things that, you know, I have a strong belief in is like, I think in twenty years we could kind of eradicate all infectious disease.”
Friedberg admits he vastly overestimated lockdown effectiveness, predicting under 20,000 deaths and return to work by April 7.
“I was like, Oh, April 7, we'll be back to work. And I also had a bet going with you guys and I said, gonna have less than twenty thousand deaths in The US.”
Friedberg predicts all infectious disease could be eradicated in 20 years if not for regulatory obstacles.
“I think in twenty years we could kind of eradicate all infectious disease. The only thing holding that up is regulation because the science is known.”
Friedberg predicts staged vaccine release starting Q4 of 2020 with parallel production ramp-up underway.
“I think there's gonna be a staged release of vaccines that'll probably believe it or not, start in q four of this year, and there's been production ramp up going on in parallel to testing.”
Friedberg admits he was wrong about vegetarian meat alternatives; consumers pay premiums for sustainability.
“I've been fucking shocked by how many people are choosing to pay a premium for vegetarian meat alternatives. I was wrong on this.”
Friedberg admits he was wrong about plant-based meat, having bet against companies because he thought consumers needed cheaper prices.
“I didn't bet against them, but I chose not to bet for them because I made the argument consumers will only buy stuff that's cheaper and taste as good, and I was wrong.”
Friedberg describes his childhood prediction about superconductors transforming the world, noting thirty years later not much has changed.
“And I said and I have my board, and I said, here's all the things you're gonna be able to do with superconductors in the future, and it's gonna totally change the world.”
Friedberg predicts energy production should increase 100-fold over the next century versus 20-fold in the last.
“So we've increased energy production by about 20 fold in the last hundred years on earth. I think in the next hundred years, we can and should increase energy production by over a 100 fold.”
Friedberg predicts the world will be surprised by acceleration in agricultural productivity over the next decade.
“I think the world will be surprised by how much we see acceleration and advancement in productivity in ag and food systems in the next ten years.”
Friedberg predicts the world will be surprised by ag and food productivity acceleration in the next ten years.
“I think the world will be surprised by how much we see acceleration and advancement in productivity in ag and food systems in the next ten years.”
Friedberg explains LLMs are text predictors, reframing AI as prediction engines applied to genomics.
“They were able to suck up all the text on the internet and use that text to make a prediction on what the answer should be”
Friedberg predicts mitotherapy could become a major new treatment modality for many diseases based on recent research.
“So this opens up the door to this whole new therapeutic modality, a new type of therapy called mitotherapy or mitochondrial therapy that based on the series of papers that we're seeing coming out recently, I believe could end up becoming a really incredible new therapy that may ultimately lead to the treatment for many diseases”
Friedberg predicts democracies end with a whimper not a bang, referencing his own All In episode seven forecast.
“Pull this up, this clip from this is episode seven of All In. I don't think democracies end with a bang. I think they end with a whimper.”
Friedberg estimates a $15 to $30 trillion annual economic opportunity on the moon with high business multiples.
“I actually think there's probably a 15 to $30,000,000,000,000 a year economic opportunity on the moon. That kind of a business, like you're gonna see with SpaceX's IPO, is gonna have an insane multiple.”
Friedberg predicts wave of AI-native operators acquiring stale first-generation digital businesses to unlock AI opportunities.
“And when you take a look at those businesses as a modern day AI operator, you're like, what the hell? This thing is so underutilized.”
“Starlink alone could be generating on the order of $40,000,000,000 of revenue top line with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash. That could be a $30,000,000,000 free cash flow within the year.”
Friedberg predicts Starlink alone could reach trillion dollar market cap within eighteen months.
“The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within two years, within eighteen months, let's say.”