Friedberg calculates median startup founder payoff at $300,000 over 49 months, or $73,000 annualized—less than Google.
“And assuming three founders, your median expected payoff to the founders would be about $300,000 each, which works out to an annualized salary equivalent of $73,000”
Friedberg states the odds of building a billion-dollar company are 0.0006%, yet that's what gets all the attention.
“The odds of the guy of being the guy on the left are according to a study and I put the URL up there, point 0006%.”
Friedberg claims 99% of startup assumptions are wrong and success comes from iterating to find the right approach.
“Most people don't realize when you haven't built a business from the ground up, but 99% of your assumptions are wrong going into it.”
Friedberg argues AI enables small startups to pursue multi-billion dollar markets previously requiring much larger teams.
“I actually think the addressable economic opportunity for startups has actually grown. So startups that otherwise might not have been able with 50 or 100 people to go after a multi billion dollar seed market, which is kind of the market that we're in, can now do so because of the leverage they get with AI.”
Friedberg argues AI enables building deep tech companies with 100 to 200 people instead of thousand-plus person teams.
“there's the opportunity to build deep tech companies, to build technically difficult companies, to build businesses that historically may have been the realm of thousand plus person companies with a 100 to 200 people.”