“In 2008, we traced back twelve and a half years. And so far we've only traced back thirteen months to the S and P where it was thirteen months ago.”
Friedberg compares market retracements: 1987 saw 33%, 2000 saw 47%, 2008 saw 56%, but we're only 20% into this one.
“1987, we saw 33% retracement. 2000, we saw 47%. 2008, we saw 56% and we're only 20 into this one.”
Friedberg admits he was wrong about vegetarian meat alternatives; consumers pay premiums for sustainability.
“I've been fucking shocked by how many people are choosing to pay a premium for vegetarian meat alternatives. I was wrong on this.”
Friedberg admits he was wrong about plant-based meat, having bet against companies because he thought consumers needed cheaper prices.
“I didn't bet against them, but I chose not to bet for them because I made the argument consumers will only buy stuff that's cheaper and taste as good, and I was wrong.”
Friedberg notes only 3% of beverage brands reaching retail achieve $10 million in sales.
“only 3% of beverage brands that launch and get retail space actually make it to 10,000,000 in sales.”
Friedberg states two-thirds of post-COVID IPOs now trade below total cash raised.
“I think two thirds of the companies that went public since COVID are trading at less than the cash they raised to date as public companies now.”
Friedberg reports 40% of biotech companies now trade below cash due to shifted investor time horizons.
“40% of biotechs are trading below cash now, because historically you've bet on a biotech company, and then if they hit their mark, they go and raise more money, And then they hit that mark, they raise more money.”
Friedberg states potatoes are the third largest calorie source globally, with India's market being 90% table potatoes.
“Around the world, potatoes are a very significant staple crop, third largest source of calories for humans on earth.”
Friedberg explains prediction markets concentrate profits in large accounts with edge while small accounts burn through capital.
“So the the accounts that have a lot of money, they generally only trade in things where they have an edge, where they make markets, Sharp.”
Friedberg predicts anti-aging enzyme application will create a trillion dollar market opportunity.
“It will be a trillion dollar market. Yeah. You can create a If you could”
Friedberg argues the market punishes companies for capital expenditure, which prevents most from making SpaceX-scale investments.
“ and a pathway off the US dependency on Taiwan and China. The structural irony the hosts noted: the market's reflexive punishment of capex — DoorDash taken to the woodshed for investing too much, Google smacked for its AI buildout — is exactly why most companies won't do what SpaceX is doing. Friedberg's verdict on handing Starlink's profits to Elon for the next bets: ”