Friedberg argues the market punishes companies for capital expenditure, which prevents most from making SpaceX-scale investments.
“ and a pathway off the US dependency on Taiwan and China. The structural irony the hosts noted: the market's reflexive punishment of capex — DoorDash taken to the woodshed for investing too much, Google smacked for its AI buildout — is exactly why most companies won't do what SpaceX is doing. Friedberg's verdict on handing Starlink's profits to Elon for the next bets: ”
Friedberg reports Starlink generated $4.3 billion revenue and $2.6 billion EBITDA with 12 million subscribers doubling year over year.
“But the connectivity piece on Starlink, 4,300,000,000 in the quarter and 2,600,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA. He's got 12,000,000 subscribers. That's doubled year over year.”
Friedberg projects Starlink could reach a trillion-dollar valuation within 18 months based on revenue and free cash flow estimates.
“NEWS: Investor David Friedberg says Starlink alone could be worth a trillion dollars within 18 months. Friedberg laid out the math on the All-In podcast. He thinks Starlink could pull in around $40 billion in revenue this year, with about $30 billion of that turning into free”
Friedberg predicts Starlink could reach a trillion-dollar valuation within 18 months based on projected revenue.
“NEWS: Investor David Friedberg says Starlink alone could be worth a trillion dollars within 18 months. Friedberg laid out the math on the All-In podcast. He thinks Starlink could pull in around $40 billion in revenue this year, with about $30 billion of that turning into free”
Friedberg suggests Starlink revenue could fund the rest of SpaceX projects as science experiments with upside potential.
“That I think funds all of the rest of this as kind of science projects and upside.”
Friedberg projects Starlink will generate $40 billion in revenue with $30 billion in free cash flow within a year, potentially justifying a trillion-dollar valuation at a 30X multiple.
“Starlink alone could be generating on the order of $40 billion of revenue top line with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash," he said. "That could be a $30 billion free cash flow within the year […] If you just put a 30X multiple on that, which I think you can because these subscription businesses are very high renewal rate, very low CAC.”