FROM THE RECORD · 5 matching entries · 2020-09-19 to 2026-08-29
What does the record say about inflation?
Selected points from existing editorial summaries and source excerpts. This covers the material on this page.
1
Friedberg says housing, education, and healthcare inflated at 5-6% versus 2.5% average where government launched subsidy programs. [1]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-08-13
“And all three of these categories are categories where the federal government has launched programs to either subsidize or make available these categories of services to people through promises.”
Friedberg argues government student loan intervention caused 6x administrative cost increase and 8% annual tuition inflation. [3]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-08-29
“When the government intervenes in underwriting student loans and gives everyone a loan, administrative costs went up by six x and tuition skyrocketed 8% a year compounding for thirty years because the government said we'll underwrite any student loan.”
Friedberg warns US debt service could hit $1.5 trillion, over a third of the federal budget. [2]
Read the supporting quotation · Megyn Kelly · 2022-10-17
“We're spending $800,000,000,000 a year on debt service right now. That could skyrocket to $1,500,000,000,000 which is over a third of the federal budget each year going into next year.”
FROM THE RECORD · 32 matching entries · 2020-03-19 to 2026-08-29
What does the record say about economics?
Selected points from existing editorial summaries and source excerpts. This covers the material on this page.
1
Friedberg cites Norway's 2022 wealth tax causing $54 billion capital flight and $448 million revenue loss versus $146 million target. [1]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2025-12-06
“The wealth tax was supposed to raise a $146,000,000 of incremental revenue per year. Instead, what happened? $54,000,000,000 of net worth left the country, and they actually had a $448,000,000 tax loss.”
Friedberg cites Treasury Secretary Mnuchin predicting 20-30% unemployment by summer if shutdowns continue. [2]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2020-03-19
“Steve Mucin, The US Treasury Secretary, was saying that we should expect 20% to 30% of the workforce to be unemployed by this summer if we keep this up.”
Friedberg estimates a $15 to $30 trillion annual economic opportunity on the moon with high business multiples. [3]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-03-27
“I actually think there's probably a 15 to $30,000,000,000,000 a year economic opportunity on the moon. That kind of a business, like you're gonna see with SpaceX's IPO, is gonna have an insane multiple.”
Friedberg reports Chinese researchers produced stem cells making 854 times normal mitochondria levels, 5.7 times more energy-efficient. [2]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2025-04-23
“And those mitochondria were on average 5.7 times more efficient at making energy, ATP. So they created highly energetic mitochondria and they made a lot of them.”
Friedberg claims a 10-meter cube of ocean water could provide all of Earth's electricity via plasma fusion. [3]
Read the supporting quotation · The Julia La Roche Show · 2022-09-29
“if you look at the amount of electricity that humans consume on planet Earth today, it would take about a 10 meter by 10 meter by 10 meter cube of ocean water to make all the electricity that we consume today if we could put that into a plasma fusion system”
Friedberg says Ohalo's system creates uniform potato seed, replacing warehouses of chopped potatoes with handfuls of seed. [2]
Read the supporting quotation · The Modern Acre · 2025-09-11
“With boosted with our system, not only can we breed potato, but we can then make uniform seed. So every seed that comes out of that potato is the same.”
Friedberg says Ohalo's true potato seed replaces 5,000 pounds of chopped potatoes with a handful of seed, launching spring 2025. [3]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-02-07
“Farmers are planting our true seed, world's first world's first true seed of potato. Instead of planting 5,000 pounds of chopped up potatoes, you plant a handful of seed.”
FROM THE RECORD · 22 matching entries · 2025-01-16 to 2026-08-13
What does the record say about ai?
Selected points from existing editorial summaries and source excerpts. This covers the material on this page.
1
Friedberg reports new German AI architecture achieved 7000x speedup over Jetson Nano and 100x over H100. [1]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2025-09-27
“Their architecture led to a speed up of 7,000 x compared to the NVIDIA Jetson Nano, 300 x compared with NVIDIA RTX forty ninety, and then a 100 x compared to the NVIDIA h 100.”
FROM THE RECORD · 22 matching entries · 2020-03-15 to 2026-08-13
What does the record say about policy?
Selected points from existing editorial summaries and source excerpts. This covers the material on this page.
1
Friedberg cites Norway's 2022 wealth tax causing $54 billion capital flight and $448 million revenue loss versus $146 million target. [1]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2025-12-06
“The wealth tax was supposed to raise a $146,000,000 of incremental revenue per year. Instead, what happened? $54,000,000,000 of net worth left the country, and they actually had a $448,000,000 tax loss.”
Friedberg states tort litigation costs the US economy $900 billion annually, 3% of GDP, growing 10% yearly. [2]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-03-27
“900,000,000,000 a year. That's how much is spent on the litigation costs, the settlements, the judgments. It's 3% of GDP, and it's growing roughly 10% per year.”
Friedberg says housing, education, and healthcare inflated at 5-6% versus 2.5% average where government launched subsidy programs. [3]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-08-13
“And all three of these categories are categories where the federal government has launched programs to either subsidize or make available these categories of services to people through promises.”
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Quoting Sabine Hossenfelder
Expert predictions about AI progress have been stunningly inaccurate
https://t.co/QYinVEdz2l
“don’t listen to the experts.” probably the best explanation about the changes being realized from AI and why they’re smashing the experts’ narratives. https://t.co/GENbwL62fB
I turn 50 today. This is a message to my kids but I offer it to you in case any of it rings useful.
I was born in Sri Lanka in 1976 in a country that, at the time, was about to enter a decades long civil war. My father was able to get stationed at the Sri Lankan High Commission
“When the government intervenes in underwriting student loans and gives everyone a loan, administrative costs went up by six x and tuition skyrocketed 8% a year compounding for thirty years because the government said we'll underwrite any student loan.”
Dr Wil’s Ruminations – August 29, 2026 All-In Podcast · Dr Wilson Wang
X quote postX
Quoting The All-In Podcast
🚨 ALL-IN INTERVIEW: Friedberg sits down with Eric Weinstein
Thanks to our partners:
@CPIWealth @ConservationFnd
- The State of Science in America
- Breakthrough Coverups?
- The Danger (and Unlimited Possibility) of Physics
- Aliens, China, and Much More
(0:00) Eric https://t.co/uFzQCG9WTI
“Starlink alone could be generating on the order of $40 billion of revenue top line with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash," he said. "That could be a $30 billion free cash flow within the year […] If you just put a 30X multiple on that, which I think you can because these subscription businesses are very high renewal rate, very low CAC.”
David Friedberg Says 1 Piece of SpaceX Could Be Worth a Trillion Dollars Inside 18 Months, ‘That I Think Funds All of the Rest of This’ · Caleb Naysmith
Quoted in printBarchart.com
“The Starlink business alone could be a trillion-dollar market cap. Within two years, within 18 months, let's say,”
David Friedberg Says 1 Piece of SpaceX Could Be Worth a Trillion Dollars Inside 18 Months, ‘That I Think Funds All of the Rest of This’ · Caleb Naysmith
Transcript excerptAll-In Podcast
“So China's got this massive amount of of energy that they can use to power electrified things. They've got 20 times the manufacturing square footage of The US, and much of it is automated.”
“And all three of these categories are categories where the federal government has launched programs to either subsidize or make available these categories of services to people through promises.”
“And the more that the government provides, 300,000,000,000 a year in housing support, 200,000,000,000 a year in education, over a trillion dollars, $2,000,000,000,000 almost in health care, the more things get more expensive.”
“NEWS: Investor David Friedberg says Starlink alone could be worth a trillion dollars within 18 months.
Friedberg laid out the math on the All-In podcast. He thinks Starlink could pull in around $40 billion in revenue this year, with about $30 billion of that turning into free”
Muskonomy (@muskonomy) on X · https://x.com/muskonomy
Quoted in printX (formerly Twitter)
“NEWS: Investor David Friedberg says Starlink alone could be worth a trillion dollars within 18 months.
Friedberg laid out the math on the All-In podcast. He thinks Starlink could pull in around $40 billion in revenue this year, with about $30 billion of that turning into free”
“And because of the extreme demand for compute, it's a pretty obvious kind of ROIC model, return on invested capital. So if you make this sort of an investment, you have significant demand for infrastructure.”
“But the connectivity piece on Starlink, 4,300,000,000 in the quarter and 2,600,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA. He's got 12,000,000 subscribers. That's doubled year over year.”
“Starlink alone could be generating on the order of $40,000,000,000 of revenue top line with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash. That could be a $30,000,000,000 free cash flow within the year.”
“I would frame it as capex is high alpha, low beta in data center infrastructure... model development theoretically could be high alpha but it's very high beta — it's a very risky way to deploy capital.”
Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI｜All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg — BigGo Finance
Quoted in printBusiness Insider
“They're going to be so in demand that what will end up happening is that over the next 24 months, every other city in America will look to these grocery stores and say, 'We want the same. Why does only New York get these grocery stores?'”
“Blah blah blah. Well, I mean, the point is I don't think it really matters because over the near term, what the cheap grocery stores do is create an incredible success story for socialism that will help to support and fuel the socialist wave in urban centers around this country.”
“And when you build the model using what's called Euclidean geometry, so just normal space that we live in, three-dimensional space, they came up with a score and the score was not very good.”
“So by taking normal space and saying, let's use a 64 dimension framework for how we can start to connect all these neurons together, that's where they had the best predictive model.”
“CML is kind of the predominant molecule that that gets formed in this extracellular matrix that's driving aging, and nothing breaks it down. So these scientists set out to try and create an enzyme.”
“They started to test it on the proteins that we would find in our body, casine, collagen, retinal proteins, which are in your eye, hemoglobin, and they were able to get rid of 52 to 97% of the CML, just degraded away.”
“And they put this enzyme onto that skin, and they were able to eliminate 55% of the CML on the skin, basically reverse the skin's age down to the age of a 31 year old.”
“And so it's kind of a groundbreaking demonstration of combination of alpha fold, what's called directed evolution, where you change the order of the DNA that changes the structure of the protein to test different proteins, do high throughput screening, and ultimately make a novel protein that doesn't exist in nature today”
“And so it's kind of a groundbreaking demonstration of combination of alpha fold, what's called directed evolution, where you change the order of the DNA that changes the structure of the protein to test different proteins, do high throughput screening,”
“As we saw in California, when California tried to pass AI legislation, I think it was about a year, a year and a half ago, none of what they wrote even made sense at the time, But fast forward a year, none of those kind of rules and requirements actually map to the technology of the day.”
“That is 211,000,000,000 of revenue the state generates. A 142 of it comes from personal income tax. The top 1%, 150,000 people pay 70,000,000,000, pay half of that tax of that income.”
“I've been involved in a number of businesses I've been on the board of and I see the margin that Amazon takes for seller from sellers and everyone's frustrated about it.”
Also @friedberg do you oppose @sama Universal Basic Capital of 2.5 percent on AI companies for a dividend to Americans as asset seizure on the same grounds like you oppose the wealth tax? https://t.co/llwgqXb3Ig
@RoKhanna @sama I would like to see you make a voluntary contribution of 5% of your family’s $200M net worth to the government for important healthcare, childcare, and jobs. Don’t worry, it’s just one-time. Your $10M contribution will provide free childcare for over 1,000 California kids for a
“So basically, the Politburo is the leaders who elect themselves to dictate the flow of the economy, the allocation of capital, what work individuals are allowed to do and what activities they're allowed to do in an unfree society, which is what they're creating. They are the true oligarchs and this is Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Ro Khanna.”
“One thing I believe to be 100% true is that no human being that's ever been alive has ever lived up to their true capacity as a human. Like human agency is limitless. Limitless. Limitless.”
“In fact, the federal government did this deal in the early eighties. They spent hundreds of millions of dollars in workforce training programs that literally did nothing.”
if @elonmusk paid 100% of his net worth ($1.4 trillion) as a tax it would only cover federal government spending for 77 days. this isn’t a tax problem… https://t.co/cbtVegym3Q
I swallowed a miniature computer
drew my blood six times
sat in a 200°F dry sauna for 56 min
felt like I was going to die from the heat
and paid $21,093 for specialty biomarkers…
To ask a question: do sauna benefits depend on time, or body temperature?
This experiment has https://t.co/5FRPK3WQeM
When Jimmy Carter purchased the teachers’ union’s endorsement in 1979 by establishing the Department of Education, the USA was #1 in education.
46 years and $4.1 trillion dollars later, the USA is #40. We are, however, #1 in cost per student.
government destroys value.
in this case, the value of an American education was destroyed in ~40 years.
if there’s no marketplace for customers (parents of students) to demand value (quality of education for price paid) by simply going to another service provider (school or https://t.co/4iGkpsaMVx
never thought i’d say this… i wholeheartedly agree with elizabeth warren.
also, term limits.
being an elected representative should not be a career. there should be no path for wealth creation or perpetual income from representing the interests of the people, in service of https://t.co/8OzFlO4iGn
20 years ago I made my first trip to Vegas. I saw the legends in the Poker Hall of Fame and dreamed joining them one day. I'm 40 now and finally eligible. It's up to the fans to decide who the 8 nominees are. If you think I belong, I'd appreciate your vote.
Wall street folks are celebrating @elonmusk for creating 4,400 millionaires. Fine.
Did any of them celebrate @JoeBiden IRA, ARP, CHIPS for creating millions of good paying jobs?
Our barometer should be opportunity & stability for the majority, not simply wealth for the few.
@RoKhanna @elonmusk @JoeBiden they’re not jobs if they’re not valued. they’re not valued if there aren’t customers out there willing to pay them for their great work. needing the government to “create” a job is tantamount to welfare and that level of welfare resolves these individuals to a dependency on the
“It's a family owned business based out of Wichita founded in 1940 by Fred Koch with businesses ranging from energy, agriculture, chemicals, building products, consumer products, even cloud computing, and a very active minority investment portfolio a 120,000 plus employees, that statistic might be off across 60 countries.”
“Very unique operating model, which we'll get into today, including principles around disruptive innovation of the business, reinvesting 90% of profits in new businesses and growth, meritocratic values.”
“Most people in most enterprises that aren't owner operators don't want to fail. They want to keep their job. They want to move up the ladder by being repeatedly successful.”
“I just feel like Silicon Valley, a lot of companies replicate each other. You have to kind of there's this term that's being used a lot now over socialization.”
“Kids are graduating college. They got hundreds of thousands of dollars in student loan debt. No one can afford to go to the doctor. Grocery bills are too high.”
“They have more debt than they have assets and everything's getting more expensive and no one's moving up the economic ladder. There's no mobility anymore.”
“The success at Coke Industries is built on an algorithm, your principles, and you've been able to adapt that algorithm and as a result scale your business, generate cash, reinvest that cash, generate more cash, reinvest that cash and so on. And you've scaled 9,000 X. You've built a compounding advantage in your business.”
“And you've scaled 9,000 X. You've built a compounding advantage in your business. Right. As is the case with all successful capitalists, you build a compounding advantage.”
“The problem with compounding in any is it eventually eats all of the whatever is in the system or it makes it hard for others to compete in that system or participate effectively in that system. And that's the argument that's being made today against capitalism.”
🚨 BIG INTERVIEW: SPENCER PRATT JOINS ALL-IN
David Friedberg sits down with Spencer Pratt to discuss his fight to save Los Angeles.
(0:00) Spencer Pratt vs. the Machine
(3:01) Inside the Palisades Fire: Drained Reservoirs, No Sirens & Watching His House Burn on His Phone https://t.co/DCe5DnsVZb
What will the future actually look like?
@friedberg and I sat down to discuss.
0:00 Why we fear the future
0:39 The fertilizer crisis solved
2:01 Life is getting better
4:04 East vs. West mindset
6:20 AI centralizes power differently
7:08 Technology always diffuses outward
9:30 https://t.co/4r4WfzBl8i
“Basically, you could use a a swimming pool sized amount of ocean water to make all the electricity needed for an entire year for the planet Earth. That's what this can do.”
“In 2016, another scientist published a series of papers showing that instead of putting a lot of those four proteins on the cell, you could put a small amount.”
“They're starting with targeting diseases, like a particular like like blindness or glaucoma in the eye or, you know, rheumatoid arthritis or some other heart issue, and they're applying these factors to the cells in that tissue only.”
“For every one year, we can extend average human lifespan. We're adding tens of trillions of dollars to GDP. Right? So this is also another big economic driver.”
“That's now your private property. You own this stuff. That's yours. So now comes along the government or this new bill, the billionaire tax act in California.”
“Not a big chunk, but I've done my part. And 80,000,000,000 of that went to increase and it was supposed to go to increasing schools and, like, health care services.”
“Today, if you add up federal, state, local government employees, plus all the contractors for the government, plus all the people that live off of a retirement check or or a welfare support check, so all the people that are living off government checks, it's about nearly half The US population.”
@friedberg second screening your ep of the Williams pod and you have a few misunderstandings about ubi and what happens when people receive a ubi.
I’m not going to bore you with the technical stuff about where the money can come from or even the results of ubi. I will tackle 2
Last week, we completed the first harvest of Ohalo's Fruition One almond trees with our partner Sierra Gold Nurseries.
As expected, our extraordinary advance delivers a Nonpareil almond tree (the #1 almond variety grown) that is self-fertile. For the first time ever, growers do https://t.co/vP69rs5uNK
“And the reason is if you can get to the moon, the moon has an extraordinary abundance of material that we can mine, process, and manufacture into goods.”
“And, ultimately, the cost to ship those goods back to the Earth is zero. And the reason is that on the moon, you can take advantage of the low gravity.”
“It's about one sixth the gravity and the complete lack of an atmosphere, meaning that it's frictionless to move material off of the moon and very low energy to move it off of the moon.”
“So we could run continuous mining, continuous manufacturing processes on the moon at a fraction of the cost of what it would take to do it here on Earth.”
“It's like 500 square meters of solar panels will let you run a four kilometer mass driver to ship material back to the Earth every ten to fifteen minutes.”
“That facility got damaged, the the main facility that's being used to make fertilizer. So that is the largest producer of urea in the world that's now gonna be incapacitated for three to five years.”
“There could almost be, whether it's through kind of connectors or embedded tools, an incredible ecosystem that were traditionally advertisers actually pay to be embedded and show up inside of the AI app, and the consumer can either pay for it or the advertiser can pay for it.”
“I actually think there's probably a 15 to $30,000,000,000,000 a year economic opportunity on the moon. That kind of a business, like you're gonna see with SpaceX's IPO, is gonna have an insane multiple.”
“900,000,000,000 a year. That's how much is spent on the litigation costs, the settlements, the judgments. It's 3% of GDP, and it's growing roughly 10% per year.”
“Ten years ago, China published 50% of the number of scientific research papers in peer reviewed journals as The United States. Last year, they published 50% more than The United States.”
“And Silicon Valley kind of woke up to the fact that the government can play an outsized role in influencing, affecting how we might be able to operate and do business.”
“there's no way that California can make enough revenue to pay the retirement obligations that they've made to existing employees and past employees, and you're not legally allowed to restructure those employment retirement obligations.”
“And I'm talking about somewhere between 250,000,000,000 and $1,000,000,000,000. California is bankrupt. That is a major Right. Fact that is completely ignored by”
BREAKING: David @friedberg says "California is functionally bankrupt"
"People don't realize how screwed California is, & I worry that if California falls, so does the union.
"$250 billion to $1 trillion short."
"This is because for California to get rescued would be a big https://t.co/I0h3lkekxe https://t.co/P7VbEBwY5n
it’s not political and should
not be partisan to ask “where did all the money go?”
California’s functional bankruptcy threatens the nation and should be a front-and-center state and national discussion.
ignore the bs. this is what matters. https://t.co/7piAKljaUN
@dallin_stagg we spend a bunch of money on camera crew and editing and travel etc. so we decided to do ads only on some interview shows to cover costs. and we try to make sure they’re minimally invasive.
🚨INTERVIEW: Bryan Johnson just took the world's biggest dose of psychedelics... here are his reactions 48 hours later.
@friedberg sits down with @bryan_johnson
(0:00) Friedberg intros Bryan Johnson
(0:54) Why Bryan Johnson did 5-MeO-DMT
(12:56) What brain scans actually https://t.co/xCBWjz3G2T
Since the first Presidential scientific advisory board, established by FDR in 1933, Presidential science and technology councils have supported policies that advanced research goals, enabled breakthrough scientific discoveries, drove the development of new technologies, and https://t.co/DNVAamC3rf
“But the technical stuff, the science stuff, we did something in thirty minutes using auto research, and I love your view on auto research and what that tells us about how far we still have to go in terms of efficiency.”
“But using auto research and a chunk of data, something was published internally that we said, oh my god. And that would normally be a PhD thesis that would take seven years.”
“So there's more bacteria living in our gut than there are cells in our body. The human gut, as you guys know, has all these bacteria that can have a profound effect on your health,”
“99.9% of probiotics are absolute bullshit. Yeah. The placebo effect is a profound effect, and a lot of common allergy and skin based autoimmune stuff starts in the gut.”
“in the '90s is kind of when DNA sequencing got cheap enough that we started to be able to figure out what bacteria are in an environment because before that, we didn't really have the ability to do that. So DNA sequencing lets us look at the DNA of all the bacteria,”
“And so it is an absolute game changer in terms of, like, having a permanent lasting effect in changing your gut. That's why we started the company. And so that was a couple years ago.”
“Like, companies are pumping out marketing all the time on this stuff, saying probiotics are so good. Probiotics are so good. It turns out 99.9% of probiotics are absolute bullshit.”
“So that's three servings of this is six grams. There's another one that's got eight. There's a and then we have a, you know, we still have a bar product.”
“GLP one just kinda, like, turns that part of your brain, that reward cycle. It's like, hey. You're you're good. Right. You don't need the reward cycle right now.”
“I don't think, so I think, like, once you kind of start to realize that whatever you're being told you can't do isn't really a limitation, then you're free.”
“The rate at which you change things is more a predictor of success than doing the right thing. Yeah. And then I think the final thing is just curiosity.”
“We have $40,000,000,000,000 of debt and we're gonna have a $2,000,000,000,000 deficit this year. A trillion dollars of that is just interest on the existing debt. That number is getting bigger and bigger every year.”
“A bunch of programs are gonna run out of money, including social security, which is projected to run out of money sometime between, call it five and ten years from now.”
“Well, it's it's on the ballot now in California to pass a wealth tax, and it starts as a one time 5% tax for billionaires, but it gives the legislature in California the ability to lower the threshold and make it every year if they wanted to and change the percentage.”
“Well, it's it's on the ballot now in California to pass a wealth tax, and it starts as a one time 5% tax for billionaires, but it gives the legislature in California the ability to lower the threshold”
“You think we are gonna find ourselves in that conversation in 2028 and we're gonna have a national wealth tax where eventually just like we started with a 1% income tax, eventually everyone will pay a significant percentage of their net worth every year to support government services.”
“Do think we have a path to fixing agriculture in this country? And how do we get farmers back on track where they can earn a living without requiring checks from the government?”
“So in the seventeenth century, Lloyd's of London, which was a coffee shop in London where all the maritime traders would get together and they'd talk about, hey.”
“And so they're they're leveraging the credit capacity of this old USAID agency to go out and say to all the shipping companies, hey. We'll give you insurance on your routes.”
“And once Google, like, has this integrated with G Suite and you have a virtual hosted version of Cowork, I think Google sweeps the market with the same competitor.”
ALL-IN INTERVIEW 🚨
Ray Dalio joins David Friedberg for another classic 🔥
-- The cycle that destroyed Rome
-- Why DOGE failed
-- Gold vs. Bitcoin
-- What economists got wrong about tariffs
-- The forces that will decide America's future
(0:00) Friedberg Introduces Ray Dalio https://t.co/rMYGMI4OGi
“I saw a lot of computer scientists that have worked in AI for some time, I think, be a little bit surprised about this moment that we're in, that we're seeing such incredible strides in model performance just by making the output recursive.”
“But if rates climb closer to 5%, as I mentioned in the past, just using the current debt levels, it adds another $650,000,000,000 a year of interest expense, which takes interest expense almost up to 2,000,000,000,000 a year just paying the interest on the past debt.”
“If you end up with a democrat controlled house and a democrat president in 2028, you'll very likely see a federalization of that obligation, meaning that the federal government will step in to bail out or support those state and local governments because otherwise there's gonna be a real kind of economic crisis afoot.”
“But when people move from the government workforce into the private workforce, they become productive. They're making things that grow the economy, and, theoretically, they should also make more money.”
“Farmers are planting our true seed, world's first world's first true seed of potato. Instead of planting 5,000 pounds of chopped up potatoes, you plant a handful of seed.”
“And I think it starts to look a lot more like a services type business where maybe the pricing is set up such that this thing will be completed for your business.”
“People don't realize this, but Social Security is an independent trust fund that's set up, and it holds one asset. That asset is an IOU from the US government to that From tax.”
“And it is rooted fundamentally in the fact that everyone to some degree feels some amount of oppression right now, and this is a manifestation of that oppressed feeling.”
“And so there's precedent in California state court that you cannot change pension benefits on the date that someone was hired. You can never change their future benefits.”
Moltbook is very dangerous right now…
15 minutes ago, an agent launched a way for agents to speak to each other, unseen by humans.
Thousands of agents with access to root systems… Jailbreak/radicalization/unseen coordination… https://t.co/a0xmQkNxfF
“ARP” is live… skynet is born?
we thought AGI would require recursive training of underlying models but maybe recursive outputs is all it took? (AGI was always there) https://t.co/Ef4tZrbfQJ
“In 2022, Chinese companies were just 5% of licensing deals. 2025, 42%. And recently, one of the biggest licensing deals ever was three s bio, 1,250,000,000 upfront with a $6,000,000,000 total with Pfizer.”
“Healthcare today costs roughly 15% of our GDP. That's an insane statistic and it is rising year after year in The United States, and it's such a complex issue.”
California started with the Gold Rush and might end with the Golden Exit.
it has been underreported how much wealth has left CA because of the asset seizure tax being proposed.
a private poll was conducted amongst affected individuals a few days ago and 80-90% surveyed said
“Because their job, the job of that individual sitting in that role, whether it's a local, state, or federal government agency, is to increase safety.”
“So you're either employed by the federal, state, or local government or its agencies or one of its contractors or you're receiving one of the retirement checks from a government agency.”
THE FRACTAL FRONTIER
When David Friedberg visited Network School, we talked about how the next frontier might not be in the West. Perhaps it's actually on the Internet.
Perhaps what comes next is the fractal frontier.
4:14 - The fractal frontier
7:45 - Network vs state
12:16 - https://t.co/2D4hSyf5Ml
@friedberg My whole life I've always known about corruption but always just figured things would work themselves out. For the first time ever I really think things are insanely out of control and the US is in extreme risk over the next few decades.
@friedberg @RoKhanna @chamath David Friedberg reply set to music.
Reply transformation to lyrics by Claude Opus 4.5.
Music by Suno v5. https://t.co/wHFWrsUCyC
@friedberg So putting aside the rhetorical flourish, you genuinely believe that a 1 percent tax on billionaires wealth for 5 years will kill the SV economy? Honest question. Or your concern is if that is expands to beyond that?
Even @chamath has eloquently recognized that those with
@RoKhanna @chamath why not just raise income tax rates?
because your real intent is not to just “provide healthcare”.
you’re masking that you are proposing the creation of, for the first time in the 250 years of this American republic, an organized government seizure of private property from
@RoKhanna love it. but let’s do more! let’s take 10% from millionaires and do better health insurance! and a train from LA to fresno! and groceries!
taking peoples assets after they’ve already paid 53% income tax on them is totally reasonable. or their pre-tax unrealized gains which
Peter Thiel is leaving California if we pass a 1% tax on billionaires for 5 years to pay for healthcare for the working class facing steep Medicaid cuts.
I echo what FDR said with sarcasm of economic royalists when they threatened to leave, "I will miss them very much." https://t.co/5N8FxBqJww
“the city of San Francisco has a managed alcohol program where they will give out beer and vodka to homeless alcoholics that they can come and get any time of the day, twenty four hours in hotel lobbies where they walk in, they are given either they can choose a vodka or a beer.”
“there are reports that they've given out 17 shots of vodka in a single night to a homeless person. And this is like a 5 to $10,000,000 a year program”
“And as a result, there's no market check. So in the case of education, the colleges can charge more every year, and the student is free to just get more loans.”
“My salary will go from $1.30 to 200 if I become a manager and hire four people. Fast forward thirty years, 10% of staff as administrators to 60% of staff as administrators.”
“a statistic. In twenty fifteen, ten years ago, papers published by Chinese research labs and major scientific journals were about half of The United States. Yeah. Now 50% more than The United States.”
“In twenty fifteen, ten years ago, papers published by Chinese research labs and major scientific journals were about half of The United States. Yeah. Now 50% more than The United States.”
“Just try to think about each one of those being one, maybe one and a half gigawatts. Suddenly, that's 60% of The US power production capacity being built right now”
“Just try to think about each one of those being one, maybe one and a half gigawatts. Suddenly, that's 60% of The US power production capacity being built right now in just nuclear by China.”
“at the time, it improved up to $60,000 of income a year Right. Then it flatlined beyond And then the the the key measure of happiness was income change year over year.”
“four you know, four forty million Americans graduated in last ten years from student from college with student loan. Average student loan debt $440,000.”
“And most of those kids came from a middle class family where they had positive assets. The parents own the house. Now the kids that voted for Mamdani cannot buy a home.”
“The wealth tax was supposed to raise a $146,000,000 of incremental revenue per year. Instead, what happened? $54,000,000,000 of net worth left the country, and they actually had a $448,000,000 tax loss.”
@Hadas_Gold well he asked me and others not to post anything because the NYT doesn’t deserve the airtime. but looks like folks ignored him because they wanted to do the right thing and speak the truth, which is something i don’t see a lot of amongst the journos-with-agendae
Friedberg: Michael Burry’s “Cooked Books” Claim is Totally Wrong
@friedberg:
“Burry's implication that they are cooking the books or hiding accounting is completely false because all of the accounting is apparent in the cashflow statement and in the balance sheet.”
“Remember, https://t.co/1pHTeRkxIF
to be clear, i am not opining on the general short positions @michaeljburry has taken in AI tech… my commentary was strictly regarding the thesis that 6 year depreciation on data center infrastructure was artificially boosting earnings. there are obvious and important questions https://t.co/05ZclpRJRo
What he doesn't tell you is that AI is unlike ANY other tech revolutions we've seen - simply bc of the scale and speed. Society's far from prepared.
Also AI is not inevitable it's a choice. Giving ourselves tools + time to plan for what's coming is reasonable. https://t.co/VmfHzrHOf2
@Abookthatsme what about the computer, the internet, the mobile phone? these all swept the world within years and were all deemed a threat to incumbency.
Excellent points @friedberg!
Excellent word usage as well: “Luddite.”
Not many people have heard of the “Luddites!”
Will be interesting to see what happens w the “Anti ai group.” They should name themselves. Will they be right? And if they are wrong in a big way, how will https://t.co/m0RUBLA48F
@friedberg Thanks for the thoughtful reply. Innovation and technological advance is patriotic and good for humanity provided it serves people. So we need to think about how it is adopted and how people can still have meaningful work and independence.
A tax code that doesn't incentivize
@RoKhanna i strongly disagree.
imagine: someone is working for $15/hr in a bicycle shop in san jose. they aspire to one day create their own bicycle company, selling custom bikes to customers. but how? today they don't have the labor pool, startup capital, or capabilities.
tomorrow,
We need regulations that prevent companies from using AI to eliminate jobs to extract greater profits.
Artists at these companies need to have a say in how AI is deployed.
They should share in the profits. And there should be a tax on mass displacement. https://t.co/uU2tmt8pDJ
@RoKhanna what if the AI creates/enables/unlocks new higher-paying jobs? by trying to prevent organizational evolution due to technology, you are limiting technology’s ability to create more value for workers.
if you had done this with the emergence of the tractor to protect loss of jobs
“The chart shows the combination of servers and networking equipment. Separately, in 2021, Google took networking equipment from three to five years, and then in 2023, they took it from five to six years.”
“I've... I I made some calls and I checked around with some other friends, and everyone says the same thing, that these seven and eight year old TPUs and GPUs that are sitting in the data centers are still being used, and they're being used at a 100% utilization.”
“The green one is actually 100 mega electron volts. This is a massive amount of energy in a proton that can cause serious damage on a microscopic level. So it can shred DNA, for example.”
You can tell when I’ve won the argument with my captured and sycophantic besties, because their best arguments are reduced to name-calling! https://t.co/PTha6iciKY https://t.co/vqpjL9Yd7X
In 5 years from now, probably 95% of the tokens used by AI agents will be used on tasks that humans never did before.
I just met with about 30 enterprises across 2 days and a dinner, and some of the most interesting use-cases that keep coming up for AI agents are on bringing
🚨🚨 new all-in interview: jared isaacman on what went wrong at nasa
@rookisaacman joins @friedberg for an incredible conversation on:
-- being nominated by president trump to lead nasa
-- the problems at nasa and his plan to fix them: misalignment, bureaucracy, external https://t.co/7NcNh5Dlas
congrats to @rookisaacman on being re-nominated to lead @NASA. great news for America and humanity’s ambitions to explore our universe. you can see why jared is such a well-suited leader for this role from our conversation in june… https://t.co/YLu47j2ntL
“this guy always said, you can never have too much data, and you can never have too little data. Any amount of data gives you more than none and gives you predictive capability.”
“Any amount of data gives you more than none and gives you predictive capability. And the more data you get, the better your predictive capability gets.”
“And then we had the idea of charging for certain add ons, certain models. Like, it would recommend what seed to use and recommend what fertilizer to use”
“No. I think if you ask people that work in and around the industry, a lot of people call the acquisition of Climate by Monsanto because they paid $1,100,000,000.”
“I think if you ask people that work in and around the industry, a lot of people call the acquisition of Climate by Monsanto because they paid $1,100,000,000.”
“Agriculture, I tell people, is difficult because you have a seasonal cycle, you only get to sell once a year. You don't know until the end of the year how it's going.”
“I think something that I say to many students when I so I do one on one ALPS tutoring, and I work on exam strategies, overcoming anxiety, creating study plans, and so much more.”
“It was like a twenty four day intensive wrestling camp in Minnesota. I forgot how many days specifically, but it was a Jay Robinson wrestling camp at the University of Minnesota.”
“I don't think that that would be valid to utilize any longer, but I would go by I do a pro wrestling podcast, and sometimes I use this this little nickname.”
“I saw a poem that said, it was the devil whispers, you can't withstand the storm. The warrior replied, I am the storm. Once I saw that, I started to associate myself as a warrior.”
“The warrior replied, I am the storm. Once I saw that, I started to associate myself as a warrior. And then I started saying, I am a final frontier warrior.”
“move on from the past to focus on the present to create the future. So the reason I started thinking this way and saying this is because you have to move on from that past.”
“It was, like, a twenty four day intensive wrestling camp in Minnesota. I forgot how many days specifically, but it was a Jay Robinson wrestling camp at the University of Minnesota.”
“If you look at papers being published across mainstream scientific journals, the majority of papers today across nearly every scientific domain are being published out of China.”
“Their architecture led to a speed up of 7,000 x compared to the NVIDIA Jetson Nano, 300 x compared with NVIDIA RTX forty ninety, and then a 100 x compared to the NVIDIA h 100.”
“And the energy was reduced by 40,000 x compared to Jetson Nano, 90,000 x compared to RDX forty ninety, and a 70,000 x energy reduction for the same outcome over an h 100.”
“So If this thing's even close to being correct, then you could run the most kind of sophisticated LLMs in a robot without it needing to be run out of a data center going forward and the robots can simply make a request for information from the Internet that they need.”
“So now we can take that seed and farmers can use it to plant. So eventually, handful of seed replaces warehouses of potato chopped up potato that are being put in the ground.”
“We did it across multiple plant species. We were able to grow the plants back into plants because you're doing this to single cells at a time and you try and get those single cells to think that they're plants and grow back and then start to phenotype them or measure them.”
“And in every experiment we ran, the results were incredible. The yield goes through the roof. Everything we expected would happen. The genetic diversity creates hybrid vigor, creates faster growing healthier plants, bigger plants.”
“it feels like when you're on the board, every day you're waiting for shit to happen. But if you're the CEO, every day you get to wake up and make shit happen.”
“And that $5,000 of revenue is requiring an investment of 1 to $2,000 an acre. So 20 to 40% of revenue to deal with all of the planting and fumigation and storage”
“I think that the ag market is going through a lot of fantastic innovation cycles right now. Everyone views the ag tech market negatively because the returns for the ag tech investor class isn't there.”
“But that doesn't mean that ag tech isn't innovating, and that we aren't improving productivity and bringing value to farmers and improving the quality of our food systems.”
“And in every experiment we ran, the results were incredible. The yield goes through the roof. Everything we expected would happen, happened. The genetic diversity creates hybrid vigor, creates faster growing healthier plants, bigger plants.”
“The yield goes through the roof. Everything we expected would happen, happened. The genetic diversity creates hybrid vigor, creates faster growing healthier plants, bigger plants.”
“So the global potato industry is about 100,000,000,000 a year. And, I'm not sure if you guys have ever visited a potato farm, but potato farm potatoes are vegetatively propagated.”
“With boosted with our system, not only can we breed potato, but we can then make uniform seed. So every seed that comes out of that potato is the same.”
“You know, you can probably see that you could save at least 15 or create at least $1,500 an acre of operating profit improvement for that potato grower.”
“But that doesn't mean that ag tech isn't innovating and that we aren't improving productivity and bringing value to farmers and improving the quality of our food systems.”
free speech. but we’ll shoot you.
something is deeply broken in the west. if we don’t fix it, eventually everyone could be ushered at gunpoint to sign the proclamations of the Truth Ministers.
“So Laura asked AI to write a Python script for her, to download all the resumes from Greenhouse, scan them, score them, and give her results. She did this all in a couple of hours.”
“Laura asked AI to write a Python script for her, to download all the resumes from Greenhouse, scan them, score them, and give her results. She did this all in a couple of hours.”
“there's the opportunity to build deep tech companies, to build technically difficult companies, to build businesses that historically may have been the realm of thousand plus person companies with a 100 to 200 people.”
“I actually think the addressable economic opportunity for startups has actually grown. So startups that otherwise might not have been able with 50 or 100 people to go after a multi billion dollar seed market, which is kind of the market that we're in, can now do so because of the leverage they get with AI.”
“Ask those questions. And so maybe every job description that needs to get approved by leadership, and the first paragraph is, why aren't you using AI?”
“They're farmed vegetatively, so you actually chop up leftover potatoes and put them back in the ground in order to grow potatoes, like Matt Damon does in The Martian.”
“And, this paper, Nick, if you could just pull up that image of mitochondria being transferred, these folks identified and demonstrated that mitochondria can actually transfer from one cell to another.”
“So if you've got a cell that's got damaged or dysfunctional mitochondria, they've identified three mechanisms by which mitochondria can move into a cell that needs more mitochondria that are working and are more functional.”
“So what these guys did, which was really incredible, is they took stem cells. So stem cells that they got out of human blood and they took those stem cells and they figured out a way to treat the stem cells so that those stem cells would start to make an excess amount of mitochondria than they normally would make.”
“And those mitochondria were on average 5.7 times more efficient at making energy, ATP. So they created highly energetic mitochondria and they made a lot of them.”
“And the idea that we could put mitochondria into our body or into tissue in our body to heal it or repair it has been something that folks have been trying to do”
“So this mechanism that they developed where they could take stem cells, make copies of the stem cells, make lots of mitochondria, and then they isolate that mitochondria and use it as a therapeutic tool.”
“So, this is a group that does bone and tissue repair studies, but they applied the mitochondria directly into the area where there was damage to the bone, and the bone grew back, and it actually improved the healing in an incredible way.”
“So this opens up the door to this whole new therapeutic modality, a new type of therapy called mitotherapy or mitochondrial therapy that based on the series of papers that we're seeing coming out recently, I believe could end up becoming a really incredible new therapy that may ultimately lead to the treatment for many diseases”
“But you could see this being applied, for example, to cerebrospinal fluid where you could basically increase the mitochondrial, the energetic mitochondrial production that finds its way into maybe neuronal cells, into neurons in your brain and improves, your brain function, or you could put it into damaged hearts after heart attacks and improve heart function.”
“Potato farmers today use about 10% of their harvest to replant leftover potato vegetative biomass back in the ground. That's how they're doing planting.”
“It takes a lot of fuel, lot of labor, and it's pretty resource intensive. And then there's obviously a pretty significant fumigation effort that goes on.”
“They were able to suck up all the text on the internet and use that text to make a prediction on what the answer should be when someone asks a question word by word.”
“I can now build models that some people are calling genome language models or, you know, whatever you wanna call them that can be predictive of a phenotype.”
“Someone quoted me this, so I'm simply stating their quote. I don't have direct data that I'm representing here, but their estimate is that the the labor cost in strawberry farming in The United States has grown from 700,000,000 a year to 2,000,000,000 a year in four years. So that's a huge tripling of labor cost.”
“Someone quoted me this, so I'm simply stating their quote. I don't have direct data that I'm representing here, but their estimate is that the the labor cost in strawberry farming in The United States has grown from 700,000,000 a year to 2,000,000,000 a year in four years.”
“And the Chevron doctrine basically allowed agencies vested agencies authority to make regulatory, rules that can then be imposed legally, statutorily.”
“We've developed a new system of of breeding that we call boosted breeding that really changes how we do breeding, the pace of gains, and also allows for true seed propagation in plants where we're typically doing vegetative propagation where there isn't a seed business today.”
“In our system, we can actually combine two hybrid or two kind of genetically distinct diploid potato to make a tetraploid offspring, but all the seed is tetraploid.”
“Potato farmers today use about 10% of their harvest to replant leftover potato vegetative biomass back in the ground. That's how they're doing planting.”
“So when you add up the cost of the labor, the fuel, of the resourcing needed to store all of the what's called seed potato, all the fumigants, it can be as much as 40% of the revenue of that potato grower.”
“Someone quoted me this, so I'm simply stating their quote. I don't have direct data that I'm representing here, but their estimate is that the the labor cost in strawberry farming in The United States has grown from 700,000,000 a year to 2,000,000,000 a year in four years. So that's a huge tripling of labor cost.”
“Someone quoted me this, so I'm simply stating their quote. I don't have direct data that I'm representing here, but their estimate is that the the labor cost in strawberry farming in The United States has grown from 700,000,000 a year to 2,000,000,000 a year in four years.”
“I do think that there's going be some big opportunities for the next transformation in agriculture in multiplex precision gene editing and in, metagenomics in the soil microbiome, even in breakthroughs in biologics or other platforms that can discover the next, set or the next range of biologics.”
“I do think that there's gonna be some big opportunities for the next transformation in agriculture in multiplex precision gene editing, and in metagenomics in the soil microbiome, even in breakthroughs in biologics or other platforms that can discover the next set, or the next range of biologics.”
“So there's a massive transformation happening in plant breeding. What used to be, you know, a seven to thirteen year cycle, you can actually do a 100 times better than that by doing precision gene editing in a year, and in biologics, there's so many products that seem to have extraordinary potential at replacing traditional inputs, biopesticides, bio fertilizers,”
“So what's happened in biologicals is historically input companies would try and inoculate microbes or get them to grow that they were grabbing from the environment.”
“Now DNA sequencing costs have gotten so cheap, right? Twenty years ago it cost $100,000,000 to sequence the human genome. Today it costs 100, and you can do it in a few hours.”
“At the end of twenty twenty one, there was a paper published by a team in China where they demonstrated a chemo enzymatic system for synthesizing starch. Starch is amylose and amylopectin, two molecules.”
“Starch is amylose and amylopectin, two molecules. And the structure of how amylose and amylopectin are put together creates the difference between all the different kinds of starches we know.”
“having seen how turning certain genes on or off in a plant can extraordinarily expand the productivity of that plant and increase farmers' yields by 50% per acre, by just turning a gene off.”
“And this year, we're already paying a trillion dollars just in interest on the debt that the federal government owes to its bondholders, to the people that own treasuries.”
“Your change in income is your predictor of happiness. So if we start with that premise of like human behavior, the government now has an incredible the federal government in The United States has an incredible role in supporting a lot of people through active programs that pump money into businesses.”
“So if we start with that premise of like human behavior, the government now has an incredible the federal government in The United States has an incredible role in supporting a lot of people”
“And I think a study I I tried to pull together all this data a couple months ago, but something north of like 30 or 40% of The US working force is touched by the government as a customer of their business, the primary customer of their business or as the employer of those individuals.”
“I tried to pull together all this data a couple months ago, but something north of like 30 or 40% of The US working force is touched by the government as a customer of their business, the primary customer of their business or as the employer of those individuals.”
“Go back to the 1950s. There were all of these crazy posters about humans will go on rockets to the moon and we're all going to live on star bases on the moon.”
“In 1955, Disneyland opened, I've told this story before with this ride called Tomorrowland. This area called Tomorrowland. I mean, you've been there. And every ride there was about the future opportunity with technology.”
“In the nineteen seventies, they started to turn over all the rides in Tomorrowland at Disneyland and every ride got remade as a fear of technology ride.”
“They weren't allowed to do any more gene therapy treatments. And since then we now have literally dozens of gene therapy treatments that can cure dozens of human diseases saving millions of lives.”
“They weren't allowed to do any more gene therapy treatments. And since then we now have literally dozens of gene therapy treatments that can cure dozens of human diseases”
“And if the government taxes everyone just the same amount, now the government has more money to spend. Consumers, voters have a choice. They have a choice to say tax less and spend less.”
“So the industrialization of agriculture has largely supported these crises and and resolved these crises for humanity, but the industrialization of agriculture has also driven us into a higher carbon footprint, a higher energy footprint, a higher land footprint.”
“today on planet Earth, there's about 800,000,000 people worldwide that still live on less than 1,200 calories a day. They are technically deemed malnourished by the UN, by the FAO.”
“by the year 2050, the UN estimates we'll need to increase global food production by north of 50%. So the way we're doing that is we're eating into the Amazon.”
“The idea was we could turn off the process that causes the fusion, the reduction of the DNA, and have it have all the DNA. And so we did this. It started to work.”
“Malnourishment is increasing on Earth. We spent thirty years getting it to decline. It's now going back up. And climate change is making things more difficult in Brazil.”
“But you don't have to make the trade offs like you do in plant breeding today, where you give up other good traits in order to try and stack those two traits together.”
“in every experiment we ran, the results were incredible. The yield goes through the roof. Everything we expected would happen happened. The genetic diversity creates hybrid vigor,”
“So the global potato industry is about a $100,000,000,000 a year. And, I'm not sure if you guys have ever visited a potato farm, but potato farm potatoes are vegetatively propagated.”
“So the global potato industry is about a $100,000,000,000 a year. And, I'm not sure if you guys have ever visited a potato farm, but potato farm potatoes”
“the global potato industry is about a $100,000,000,000 a year. And, I'm not sure if you guys have ever visited a potato farm, but potato farm potatoes are vegetatively propagated.”
“With boosted, with our system, not only can we breed potato, but we can then make uniform seed. So every seed that comes out of that potato is the same.”
“eventually, a handful of seed replaces warehouses of potato chopped up potato that are being put in the ground. So you can move to an, you know, a low cost, more energy, more environmentally friendly,”
“potatoes are a very significant staple crop, third largest source of calories for humans on Earth. 95% or 90% of the potato grown in India, for example, are used in table potatoes.”
“If you're delivering an incremental $30 an acre of profit to a farmer, can you charge them $10 an acre for that product or service you're offering them to help them get there?”
“Everyone views the ag tech market negatively because the returns for the ag tech investor class isn't there. But that doesn't mean that ag tech isn't innovating and that we aren't improving productivity”
“that doesn't mean that ag tech isn't innovating and that we aren't improving productivity and bringing value to farmers and improving the quality of our food systems.”
“And farmers don't wanna pay for data. They wanna pay for results. So that's a that's kind of a very hard thing to do without the the integration of data.”
“when I started Climate Corp 2006, the first thing I did when I got a seed check to start the company is I went out and bought weather data, and I bought it from a company called RMS that sold weather data. The sales guy was a guy named Jeff Hamlin.”
“And those big thinking, those big ideas, those big audacious concepts, as a framing for the team, really, I think personified what I consider to be true leadership in an organization of people,”
“Well, there's I don't know about, using the term thinker, but I think that the, the big concepts are scary because there's so many things that have to go right to get them to work.”
“And, you know, complexity breeds fear because it breeds a higher chance of failure. You know, you have to get each of these things right for something to work.”
“And you could probably make 50,000,000 in return. That's a nice little 10 bagger. Great. Let's do that. And then let's plow a trillion dollars into that concept.”
“And we had to get multiple things right in a row over time to see if this thing even worked. And fortunately it works, but it took us four and a half years.”
“But because we remained committed to the bigger idea, this bigger experiment we had, this big project, We had a shot at it, and we got there, and this thing worked.”
“In the last two years since COVID, we've unfortunately seen a reversal in global malnutrition statistics. You know, we were at 600,000,000 people, living on less than 1,500 calories a day just before COVID.”
“At that time, probably the largest we were known to be the largest users of Amazon's Elastic Compute Cloud because we were ingesting so much data to build these models that related all the variables of farming and the weather to predict outcome.”
“So I was like, well, in order to pull that off, we really have to do good for our last round's investors and kinda had a hefty negotiation to get the deal done.”
“What used to be, you know, a seven to thirteen year cycle, you can actually do a 100 times better than that by doing precision gene editing in a year.”
“So the net economics on making proteins using microorganisms or what people are calling precision fermentation isn't proving out at scale to be what everyone theorized it could or should be.”
“I'm not a huge believer or a huge fan of businesses that depend on kind of greenwashing and charging a premium to people to make themselves feel better about the decisions that they're making.”
“They're coming up the economic ladder and they're gonna eat more meat and they're gonna eat what tastes good and they're gonna eat whatever they can afford.”
“They don't have this ability to drive narrative to tell this compelling story. They won't attract the right team. They won't be able to attract capital, and they won't be able to get customers.”
“There are many biotech companies. There are a number of kind of consumer hardware, there's also a number of kind of enterprise hardware, lab automation.”
“40% of biotechs are trading below cash now, because historically you've bet on a biotech company, and then if they hit their mark, they go and raise more money, And then they hit that mark, they raise more money.”
“There's a product that there's literally no GMO version of an input, of oats. There's no GMO oats. So an oatmeal company puts out a box and they say, Here's our oatmeal.”
“I think the top 700 microbrews in The US now outsell Budweiser and Miller. Okay. And that's an incredible statistic. So, I don't know what Do you drink beer?”
“So I think what we'll see is this really interesting integration of content with brands. And as a result, the content driven strategy starts to lead the advertising and marketing driven strategy.”
“You see this in, like, the insurance industry. The term is often used to adverse selection where, it's the best storyteller that wins, not necessarily the best candidate.”
“They raised about $3,000,000,000 in startup funding, and they're pursuing this kind of epigenetic partial reprogramming of cells to make them more youthful.”
“And they've been going out and just grabbing some of the best academic and research teams out there that are like, they brought a ton of people out from UCSF.”
“I think it's a really interesting model. I'm really curious to see what comes out of Altos Labs, given that the number of teams that they've gone out and like vacuumed up from academia, the probability of that portfolio of teams having a breakthrough or a set of breakthroughs that has commercial success is very high.”
“The challenge arises that that science then either gets licensed out in a way that UC doesn't benefit enough from the discovery that was made, where they own the IP, or they're just not open sourcing it. Those are the two problems. And what happens often is something in the middle.”
“And I said and I have my board, and I said, here's all the things you're gonna be able to do with superconductors in the future, and it's gonna totally change the world.”
“And increasingly, there's evidence as published a few weeks ago in two different papers, including one out of led by a team out of Harvard, that it may be dysfunctions not in the genome and the DNA, but actually dysfunctions in the epigenome, which is the molecules that sit on the DNA.”
“So we've increased energy production by about 20 fold in the last hundred years on earth. I think in the next hundred years, we can and should increase energy production by over a 100 fold.”
“So we have to have a portfolio of stuff. Fusion, from a first principles perspective, as you know, works because we see it working in the sky. So we know that this physics is real.”
“So a couple of years ago, three years ago, was about seven venture funded fusion companies. As of the end of last year, Q3 of last year, count was 47.”
“We're spending $800,000,000,000 a year on debt service right now. That could skyrocket to $1,500,000,000,000 which is over a third of the federal budget each year going into next year.”
“So the first thing we saw inflate was sort of hard commodities and soft commodities, things like energy and agricultural products and metals and so on.”
“the UN World Food Programme has declared that we're marching towards 300,000,000 incremental people that are facing undernourishment and starvation in 2023 because of the food shortages that are arising from the increment in fertilizer prices. And no one's really paying attention to this or thinking about it.”
“And no one's really paying attention to this or thinking about it. But when it starts to hit, The US is already spending $5,000,000,000 a year supporting the World Food Program”
“But when it starts to hit, The US is already spending $5,000,000,000 a year supporting the World Food Program and trying to get food to those in need around the world.”
“And so part of our economic sanctioning of removing Russian stocks from European and US listed stock exchanges caused a $600,000,000,000 wipeout in value”
“Because of the fast feedback cycles that we talked about earlier, and that a point of view, kind of the mob coalesces around the point of view, you end up electing the person who represents the mob, which means that ultimately over time in a democracy, in the social media age, is you don't end up electing leadership.”
“the simple model of success in life is you do something, you succeed, you consider yourself successful, But then when you get knocked down, it's very hard to think about yourself still being successful or having the potential to be successful if your model, your learned model is success.”
“And you cannot tell me of a successful story of entrepreneurism where the entrepreneur did not exhibit an extraordinarily high index on at least one of those three traits.”
“So grit, if you never give up, you definitionally will not die. You could get paid zero salary, have no office and keep going. And that business eventually will find a path.”
“The individuals who possess a strong storytelling trait, an ability to paint a picture that elicits emotional context in the listener in a way that drives them to act is a person that can infinitely fundraise, that can attract and recruit the best employees, that can sell customers on a product that doesn't even exist yet.”
“To make a gram of animal protein, or let's say like 100 calories of animal protein, it takes 3,000 calories of energy into a system to make that animal protein.”
“our objective shouldn't be about in sustainability, shouldn't be about, hey, can we get people to consume less? It should be, can we get people to consume more?”
“Can we give people 10 times, 100 times, 1,000 times more than they have today? And in doing so, it makes us solve the productivity problems. And the productivity problems ultimately resolve the sustainability problems,”
“Yeah, so people spend $2,000,000,000,000 a year on canned and bottled beverages from wine and beer, which is a trillion to coffee, tea, juice and soda, which is another trillion.”
“If you already have a 100,000,000 people following you like MrBeast does, he just goes on his video and he says, buy my chocolate bar. And he sells 50,000,000 chocolate bars.”
“if you look at the amount of electricity that humans consume on planet Earth today, it would take about a 10 meter by 10 meter by 10 meter cube of ocean water to make all the electricity that we consume today if we could put that into a plasma fusion system”
“I'm a big believer that sustainability in the twenty first century does not arise from convincing consumers to consume less. I think sustainability arises from building technology based solutions that let consumers consume more”
“Wesley and I kind of started working together after that because the first thing Larry and Sergei said to me was that's evil. Third party cookies are evil.”
“Within a year, I think we had shown through Hal Varian, who was our chief economist, we had demonstrated that Google Analytics increased AdWords revenue by $500,000,000 because so many advertisers were using it to improve their websites and make the conversions better that they were spending more on AdWords.”
“And so we're starting preorders today for for $99. You can reserve a fully refundable $99 reservation fee. And the first 10,000 orders are are $4.99 for the device and $7.99 after the first 10,000.”
“I think sustainability arises from building technology based solutions that let consumers consume more and dropping the price and dropping the environmental impact.”
“It's about half a billion tons of CO2 that are put into the atmosphere every year to make bottled cans and beverages. Is about bottled and canned beverages.”
“It is about 400,000,000,000,000 liters of water that are used in the whole production cycle of bottled beverages. And consumers are spending $2,300,000,000,000 a year on this archaic, insane system of centralized manufacturing”
“120,000,000 acres of farmland that could be reduced and returned back to the natural ecosystems that we would stop using to grow all this stuff. So that's our long term incentive, right?”
“And if they try and do that, then they step in and they try and run a tech company and the whole thing gets ruined and falls apart as we've seen in M and A over and over again in many different So it is this kind of classic innovator dilemma moment that we're seeing in financial services”
“And if they try and do that, then they step in and they try and run a tech company and the whole thing gets ruined and falls apart as we've seen in M and A over and over again in many different”
“I feel like the the Robinhood fine the FINRA fine of $70,000,000, was a good red herring for what's gonna happen in this industry which is that the big financial services firms wanna participate in this market and they don't want regulators coming in and reregulating the market.”
“You can actually listen on any house speaker, whether it's a Sonos device or or what have you. And so we've got, you know, our homes are already wired.”
“Well, I don't think happiness comes from, you know, absolute standards of living. I think happiness arises from one's relative standard of living, whether that's relative to how you lived last year or how you're living relative to your neighbor and seeing some progression over time is the only thing that keeps people happy. It's otherwise society decays.”
“So the notion of some sort of flatlined or even flatlined at inflation adjusted basic income level for a large number of people will inevitably result in kind of what we're trying to prevent, which is, you know, some sort of decay, societal decay.”
“It's all politics and social behavior. It has nothing to do with science. Like, after nine eleven, there were no more serious, like, terrorist attacks on The United States, but our fucking lives changed dramatically.”
“It has nothing to do with science. Like, after nine eleven, there were no more serious, like, terrorist attacks on The United States, but our fucking lives changed dramatically.”
“I've been fucking shocked by how many people are choosing to pay a premium for vegetarian meat alternatives. I was wrong on this. I I bet against these companies eight years ago.”
“I didn't bet against them, but I chose not to bet for them because I made the argument consumers will only buy stuff that's cheaper and taste as good, and I was wrong.”
“If we could build an algae or a seaweed from scratch or using some basis and use software to resolve what's the right sort of seaweed to create, That will grow like crazy in the oceans.”
“When it gets heavy, sinks to the bottom of the ocean and it literally just pulls carbon out of the atmosphere and drops to these 40,000 foot deep or, you know, 4,000 foot deep kind of wells we have already built around 70% of planet Earth.”
“When it gets heavy, sinks to the bottom of the ocean and it literally just pulls carbon out of the atmosphere and drops to these 40,000 foot deep or, you know, 4,000 foot deep kind of wells we have already built around 70% of planet Earth. We have the tools to do that.”
“I I'm a huge fan of ending qualified immunity. I think that doesn't make any sense. I think we have to stop arming our police like their military. Don't train them like the military.”
“The contra example I would say is if you look at Switzerland where the per capita gun ownership is really high, Canada where per capita gun ownership is really high, what I would tell you is there's a different kind of psychological training that police people go through before they're put on the streets, and that is fundamentally different here.”
“And Facebook is basically a product of Middle America plus kind of like countries outside The United States and, know, Twitter is about, you know, rich coastal kind of people.”
“I think there's gonna be a staged release of vaccines that'll probably believe it or not, start in q four of this year, and there's been production ramp up going on in parallel to testing.”
“We politicized fucking measles. Thirty percent of people kids now aren't getting vaccinated for measles, which is crazy. And now there's measles outbreaks happening in The US,”
“I was like, Oh, April 7, we'll be back to work. And I also had a bet going with you guys and I said, gonna have less than twenty thousand deaths in The US.”
“I think in twenty years we could kind of eradicate all infectious disease. The only thing holding that up is regulation because the science is known.”
“Steve Mucin, The US Treasury Secretary, was saying that we should expect 20% to 30% of the workforce to be unemployed by this summer if we keep this up.”
“The the world lives on a thirty day food supply. So if you stop food production today, there would only be thirty days of food for the whole world to eat based on our calorie consumption per day, and especially with an isolated border and we import a lot of food in The United States.”
“A paper published showed that in China, up to eighty six percent of people did not realize that they were sick or they were unreported and they had mild symptoms.”
“If you take that high level, you take that low level, call it somewhere between twenty five percent and eighty six percent, maybe even as high as eighty six percent of patients are asymptomatic,”
“Those IgG tests are being made en masse in China today. They're being shipped to countries like Italy where they are in fact being used on the front line.”
“Every let's assume the whole economy shuts down. Every month that we're shut down costs us 1,500,000,000,000. So if we're gonna have the country shut down for, say, three months, we're losing $4,500,000,000,000 right there.”
“I do think that the West Coast and with some travel restrictions is going to be able to reopen for business probably around April seventh or eighth because we're going to see a dramatic decline at that point, and we're going see a lower fatality rate than everyone is predicting.”
“And we're going to start to have measures around washing your hands and masks because you can't stay shut down for that long without literally never being able to open again.”
“But what we really have missed the boat on, and we're still missing the boat on, is knowing who's been infected and to what extent this thing has actually spread already.”
“And that's a nonlinear relationship because as soon as you max out on ICU beds or critical care beds, boom, you're over the abyss, and everyone starts to die.”
“So years later when I was at Google, I came back to this idea about sort of all the world's businesses affected by the weather, maybe there is something they can do about it”
“There is 160,000,000 acres of corn and soybeans planted just in the Midwest Of The United States. Our product costs $40 an acre. There is $6,000,000,000 of revenue we are going after”
“And if you were to get a job at Google when you graduate, the anecdotal evidence suggests that your first year salary would be about $105,000 this year.”
“And assuming three founders, your median expected payoff to the founders would be about $300,000 each, which works out to an annualized salary equivalent of $73,000 And the probability that you actually make no money is 67%.”
“And assuming three founders, your median expected payoff to the founders would be about $300,000 each, which works out to an annualized salary equivalent of $73,000”
Charles & Chase Koch on How They Quietly Built a $150B Empire
All-In Podcast·12 May 2026·1h 35m·no quotes on record yet
Then and now1 pair
evolvedtechnology·430 days apart
Thensaid
“They were able to suck up all the text on the internet and use that text to make a prediction on what the answer should be when someone asks a question word by word.”
