Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
7 of 10 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 5 May 2025 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
- Sir Richard Dearlove 4 thin 14 Dec 2017 – 9 Jan 2026 -2699 d
-
Brad Gerstner
12
11 Aug 2023 – 28 May 2026
-633 d
-
Howard Marks
1
thin
4 Oct 2023 – 4 Oct 2023
-579 d
-
David Friedberg
2
thin
25 Jun 2024 – 20 Jan 2025
-314 d
-
Marc Rowan
4
thin
5 May 2025 – 3 Mar 2026
+0 d
- Dylan Patel 7 22 Jun 2025 – 25 Aug 2026 +48 d
- Jensen Huang 2 thin 5 Feb 2026 – 16 Jun 2026 +276 d
-
Gavin Baker
1
thin
15 May 2026 – 15 May 2026
+375 d
-
Scott Bessent
2
thin
3 Jul 2026 – 3 Jul 2026
+424 d
- John Williams 24
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
-
-
Sir Richard Dearlove
Dearlove rates UK's Brexit position as near five out of ten, predicting strength after turbulence.
“two years of turbulence? Probably near a five. I would pick near a five. I think we can emerge from that in a pretty strong position”
-
Sir Richard Dearlove
Dearlove rates Brexit turbulence near five out of ten and believes UK can emerge strong with self-confidence.
“I would pick near a five. I think we can emerge from that in a pretty strong position if we do not lose self belief and self confidence.”
-
-
-
Sir Richard Dearlove
Dearlove predicts US and China will negotiate a new global security system within five years.
“at some point in the next two, three, four, five years, I think The United States and China will sit down to work out how a new security system will, as it were, operate across the world to replace Pax Americana.”
-
-
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner forecasts 5-7 good-sized IPOs in Q4 2023 and closer to 10 in Q1 2024.
“I think we're gonna see five, six, seven IPOs, good sized IPOs in q four. We'll probably see closer to 10 in q one,”
-
Howard Marks
Marks forecasts Fed funds rate will settle between two and four percent, not zero to two.
“what I said in the memo is that rates are likely to be between two and four, not between zero and two, the Fed funds rate.”
-
-
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes consensus forecasts Uber reaching almost $10B in free cash flow in a few years.
“if you look at the consensus forecast for the business, which is pretty mind boggling, it's estimated by the consensus that it'll reach almost 10,000,000,000 in free cash flow, just a few years from now.”
-
David Friedberg
Friedberg cites UN estimate requiring over 50% increase in global food production by 2050.
“And so by the year 2050, the UN estimates we'll need to increase global food production by north of 50%.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner frames NVIDIA debate as 6 million GPUs versus bearish 4.5 million estimate for next year.
“We're kind of at 6,000,000 GPUs for next year. The bearish people are at like 4,500,000. The numbers will ultimately tell.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner posits 30% annual infrastructure expense growth requires matching inference revenue growth from enterprises and consumers.
“if you think that infrastructure expenses are going to grow at 30% a year, then I think you have to believe that the underlying inference revenues, right, both on the consumer side and the enterprise side are gonna grow somewhere in that range as well.”
-
-
-
David Friedberg
Friedberg predicts emerging markets will adopt new breeding technologies faster than developed markets due to economic benefits.
“And that's because I think that the benefit, the economic benefit to the smallholder farmer in emerging markets is so profound.”
-
Marc Rowan
Rowan predicts two quarters of negative growth if tariff uncertainty continues without resolution.
“We likely will cause two quarters of negative growth if we, in fact, don't resolve the uncertainty. So until we have resolution of what the rules of the game are, it's gonna be slow.”
-
“US and Mexico together should be the driving economic force in the world for the next fifty years.”
-
Marc Rowan
Rowan sees US moving from hyperexceptionalism to merely exceptional, though alternatives could emerge over time.
“What I've said is I see us moving from what was hyperexceptionalism to merely exceptional because I don't think there are good alternatives to The US today, but that can change over time.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner now forecasts $300 billion in tariffs, 4x last year's $77 billion revenue.
“Okay? I just told you that last year tariffs were 77,000,000,000. So that's still a four x increase in tariff revenue,”
-
Dylan Patel
Patel forecasts that 70% of robots deployed in China in 2025 will be domestically manufactured Chinese robots.
“'24, it's, it's rapidly growing Chinese share. And '25 is it looks clear, like, the the market shares is, you know, gonna be 60 is gonna be, like, 70% Chinese robots for China's domestic usage.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes Jensen raised compute buildout forecast from $2 trillion to $3-4 trillion through decade end.
“Jensen said, you know, when he was on our pod last year, he said, we think the build out between now and the end of the decade's $2,000,000,000,000 of total compute.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner calculates 50% growth would bring NVIDIA to $300 billion datacenter revenue, about $8 per share.
“So the consensus for next year is 250,000,000,000 of data center revenue. If they grow up 50%, that's gonna be closer to 300,000,000,000 or closer to $8 a share.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes Altman tweeted OpenAI will exit the year at $20 billion in revenue.
“And he just said in his tweet that they're gonna exit the year at $20,000,000,000 in revenue.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports Altman expects OpenAI to exceed $100 billion in revenue in 2027 or 2028.
“What Sam said multiple times on the pod and since is that he expects that they'll do over 100,000,000,000 in revenues in twenty seven or '28.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says NVIDIA indicated a $100 billion run rate expected by end of next year.
“And they just told us that we should expect a run rate by the end of next year of a $100,000,000,000.”
-
-
-
Sir Richard Dearlove
Dearlove publicly predicts Iran's regime will fall in 2026, standing by his forecast.
“I had to make a podcast prediction for 2026 three weeks ago, and I said fall of the Iranian regime in 2026. I think I'm going to see that or we're going to see that.”
-
Dylan Patel
Patel predicts semiconductor shortages will return as primary constraint in 2027 affecting both TSMC and memory manufacturers.
“But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC. It's also memory both.”
-
Jensen Huang
Huang cites estimates of eighty-five trillion dollars in infrastructure investment over the next ten years.
“Trillions of dollars, tens of trillions of dollars. Estimates have it close to $100,000,000,000,000 $85,000,000,000,000 in the next ten years.”
-
Marc Rowan
Rowan predicts good risk managers will make record profits this year and next from defensive positioning.
“If you were a good risk manager, you are going to make more money this year and next year if it continues than you ever have before because you've been risk off.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner cites a trillion dollars in Nvidia orders over the next six to eight quarters.
“But I think if you just look at the numbers, a trillion dollars over the course of the next, you know, six to eight quarters, I think speaks for itself.”
-
Gavin Baker
Baker takes the over on every AI capex and memory forecast number given by other speakers at the conference.
“And I would just say, I take the over on every number that they gave. Every single number.”
-
Brad Gerstner
Gerstner warns the market could see a 10 to 20% consolidation after recent gains.
“But the bigger risk right now is simply that we've come a long way quickly. Right? We could have a 10 to 20% consolidation in the socks or these other technology and AI markets,”
-
Jensen Huang
Huang forecasts tens of trillions of dollars in new computer infrastructure over the next decade.
“We're now in the process of reinventing all of that, which is the reason why over the course of the next ten years, we're going to be building tens of trillions of dollars of new computers to replace the old computers that we built over the last sixty years.”
-
Dylan Patel
Patel predicts OpenAI and Anthropic alone will deploy over 100 gigawatts of compute by 2030.
“by 2030, just OpenAI and Anthropic will have over 100 gigawatts combined, and then you'll add Meta and Google and so on and so forth.”
-
Scott Bessent
Bessent expects real wage growth to resume as soon as next month after April spike.
“But we had had before April, we had seen real wage growth for working Americans every month during President Trump's presidency, and I would expect maybe even as soon as next month we will go back to that.”
-
Scott Bessent
Bessent forecasts real wage gains could return as soon as this month after inflation spike.
“I would expect that perhaps as soon as this month, we're going to see real wage gains.”
-
Dylan Patel
Patel forecasts AI CapEx will exceed $2 trillion by 2028, up from just over $1 trillion in 2025.
“As we go forward into the future, the the numbers for computer ballooning, right, we're at, you know, you know, a little bit over a trillion dollars of CapEx this year.”
-
Dylan Patel
Patel says OpenAI and Anthropic represent 30% of new compute in 2025, rising to 40-50% in 2026.
“When you when you look at the incremental compute added, that's about 30% of the compute added this year.”
-
Dylan Patel
Patel predicts Anthropic and OpenAI will take 40-50% of all new compute in 2026, accelerating centralization.
“You've got Anthropic OpenAI are taking as much as 40% to 50% of compute next year. And the centralization doesn't look like it's slowing down or stopping. In fact, it looks like it's only accelerating.”
-
Dylan Patel
Patel's models show $11 trillion AI CapEx through 2029, requiring over $5 trillion in new debt.
“In the modeling that we do, we have about $11,000,000,000,000 of CapEx from 2024 to 2029. Total. Total.”
-
-
-
John Williams
Williams says inflation is at 4 percent, driven first by higher tariffs on imported goods.
“This elevation primarily reflects three drivers. The first is the effect of higher tariffs on imported goods.”
-
John Williams
Williams expects new tariffs to replace expiring ones without adding significant additional price pressure.
“My expectation is that any new tariffs will primarily replace those that were curtailed or will soon expire, so we shouldn’t see a significant additional impulse on prices from this source going forward.”
-
John Williams
Williams expects tariffs to boost overall prices by 1 to 1.5 percent through first half of next year.
“All in all, I expect tariffs will boost overall prices by a total of between 1 and 1-1/2 percent, with these effects continuing through the first half of next year.”
-
John Williams
Williams forecasts tariffs will add roughly 1 percentage point to inflation through early 2026.
“Overall, I expect tariffs to boost inflation by about 1 percentage point over the second half of this year and the first part of next year.”
-
John Williams
Williams expects tariffs to have one-off price effects and inflation to decline later this year after peak tariff impact.
“Given the lack of second-round effects and well-anchored inflation expectations, I expect the tariffs largely to have one-off effects on prices.”
-
John Williams
Williams forecasts inflation peaking at 2.75 to 3 percent in first half 2026, reaching 2 percent goal in 2027.
“I anticipate inflation will peak at around 2-3/4 to 3 percent sometime during the first half of this year, before starting to fall back.”
-
John Williams
Williams expects GDP growth of 2.5 to 2.75 percent in 2026, driven by fiscal policy and AI investment.
“I expect the economy to grow above trend this year, with real GDP growth between 2-1/2 and 2-3/4 percent.”
-
John Williams
Williams expects GDP growth near 2.5 percent this year from fiscal policy, financial conditions, and AI investment.
“I expect real GDP growth to be close to 2-1/2 percent this year, reflecting tailwinds from fiscal policy, favorable financial conditions, and investment in AI.”
-
John Williams
Williams expects inflation around 3 percent this year, reaching 2 percent target in 2027.
“Looking ahead, my base case is for inflation to be about 3 percent this year, before dropping to our 2 percent target in 2027”
-
John Williams
Williams expects inflation around 2.75 percent this year, reaching 2 percent target in 2027.
“I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-3/4 percent this year, before reaching our longer-run 2 percent target in 2027.”
-
John Williams
Williams expects GDP growth of about 2.5 percent this year driven by fiscal stimulus, financial conditions, and AI investment.
“I expect real GDP to grow about 2-1/2 percent this year, supported by stimulus from fiscal policy, favorable financial conditions, and robust investments in artificial intelligence.”
-
John Williams
Williams expects real GDP growth to slow considerably to just over 1 percent this year.
“I expect real GDP growth this year will slow considerably from last year’s pace, to just over 1 percent.”
-
John Williams
Williams forecasts GDP growth of 2 to 2.25 percent and unemployment of 4.25 to 4.5 percent.
“Consequently, with growth around its trend pace, I expect the unemployment rate will remain in its recent range of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.”
-
John Williams
Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation hitting 3 percent in 2025 before declining to 2 percent.
“With this deceleration of real GDP, I expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 4-1/2 percent by the end of this year.”
-
John Williams
Williams forecasts unemployment declining, inflation at 2.5 percent in 2026, then falling to 2 percent in 2027.
“And with the effects of tariffs on inflation waning later in the year, I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-1/2 percent in 2026, then fall to 2 percent in 2027.”
-
John Williams
Williams expects real GDP growth of about 1 percent in 2025.
“As a result, I expect real GDP growth this year to be about 1 percent.”
-
John Williams
Williams forecasts unemployment rising to around 4.5 percent by end of 2025.
“With this slowdown in growth, I expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 4-1/2 percent by the end of this year.”
-
John Williams
Williams forecasts inflation of 3 to 3.5 percent in 2025, declining to 2 percent by 2027.
“I anticipate inflation will come in between 3 and 3-1/2 percent in 2025, and then fall back to about 2-1/2 percent next year before reaching 2 percent in 2027.”
-
John Williams
Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation at 3 to 3.25 percent this year, reaching 2 percent in 2027.
“And I expect PCE inflation to come in between 3 and 3-1/4 percent this year, before declining to around 2-1/2 percent next year, and reaching 2 percent in 2027.”
-
John Williams
Williams estimates tariffs have added 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to current inflation without second-round effects.
“My estimate is that increased tariffs have contributed about one half to three quarters of a percentage point to the current inflation rate.”
-
“Looking ahead, I expect real GDP growth to be around 2 to 2-1/4 percent this year and over the next two years.”
-
John Williams
Williams forecasts GDP growth of 2 to 2.25 percent with unemployment declining to 4 percent by 2028.
“With growth running modestly above my estimate of its potential rate of 2 percent, I expect the unemployment rate to edge down very gradually to 4 percent in 2028.”
-
John Williams
Williams expects inflation to fall to 3.25 percent by year-end, reaching 2 percent target in 2028.
“For the reasons I outlined a moment ago, I expect overall inflation to decline to around 3-1/4 percent by year-end, then continue on a glide path toward our 2 percent goal in 2027 and land on target in 2028.”
-
John Williams
Williams notes Treasury estimates TGA balances could peak around $1.025 trillion by late April, drawing down reserves.
“In fact, the U.S. Treasury recently estimated that TGA balances could peak around $1.025 trillion by late April, amid tax season inflows, likely resulting in a notable drawdown in reserves.”
-