Rowan predicts good risk managers will make record profits this year and next from defensive positioning.
“If you were a good risk manager, you are going to make more money this year and next year if it continues than you ever have before because you've been risk off.”
Rowan predicts two quarters of negative growth if tariff uncertainty continues without resolution.
“We likely will cause two quarters of negative growth if we, in fact, don't resolve the uncertainty. So until we have resolution of what the rules of the game are, it's gonna be slow.”
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“US and Mexico together should be the driving economic force in the world for the next fifty years.”
Rowan sees US moving from hyperexceptionalism to merely exceptional, though alternatives could emerge over time.
“What I've said is I see us moving from what was hyperexceptionalism to merely exceptional because I don't think there are good alternatives to The US today, but that can change over time.”