Rowan argues the US should reconsider being the freest trading market and could rank tenth or twentieth instead.
“The US is the second freest trading market in the world financially after Japan and is the freest trading market in the world considering non tariff barriers.”
Rowan dismisses disappointment from investors who expected a God-given right to 11% annual returns.
“Those people who are tied to asset prices who thought we were had a God given right that everything move up at 11% annually are disappointed.”
Rowan sees US moving from hyperexceptionalism to merely exceptional, though alternatives could emerge over time.
“What I've said is I see us moving from what was hyperexceptionalism to merely exceptional because I don't think there are good alternatives to The US today, but that can change over time.”
Rowan identifies the expectation of daily liquidity in everything as the biggest risk buildup in the world.
“What I worry about and the biggest buildup of risk I see in the world is we are brought up with an expectation of being able to trade everything every day. Everything is daily liquid.”
Rowan observes yield curve steepening with ten-year rates rising despite lower short rates.
“And what we're seeing is a steepening of the yield curve. Rates that matter, the ten year, are higher even if short rates are lower.”
Rowan mocks recent market reaction to AI's software impact as obvious rather than surprising.
“lo and behold, we think that AI might impact software. Is that news? Did we just discover that two weeks ago?”