Williams says inflation is at 4 percent, driven first by higher tariffs on imported goods.
“This elevation primarily reflects three drivers. The first is the effect of higher tariffs on imported goods.”
Williams expects new tariffs to replace expiring ones without adding significant additional price pressure.
“My expectation is that any new tariffs will primarily replace those that were curtailed or will soon expire, so we shouldn’t see a significant additional impulse on prices from this source going forward.”
Williams expects tariffs to boost overall prices by 1 to 1.5 percent through first half of next year.
“All in all, I expect tariffs will boost overall prices by a total of between 1 and 1-1/2 percent, with these effects continuing through the first half of next year.”
Williams forecasts tariffs will add roughly 1 percentage point to inflation through early 2026.
“Overall, I expect tariffs to boost inflation by about 1 percentage point over the second half of this year and the first part of next year.”
Williams expects tariffs to have one-off price effects and inflation to decline later this year after peak tariff impact.
“Given the lack of second-round effects and well-anchored inflation expectations, I expect the tariffs largely to have one-off effects on prices.”
Williams forecasts inflation peaking at 2.75 to 3 percent in first half 2026, reaching 2 percent goal in 2027.
“I anticipate inflation will peak at around 2-3/4 to 3 percent sometime during the first half of this year, before starting to fall back.”
Williams expects GDP growth of 2.5 to 2.75 percent in 2026, driven by fiscal policy and AI investment.
“I expect the economy to grow above trend this year, with real GDP growth between 2-1/2 and 2-3/4 percent.”
Williams expects GDP growth near 2.5 percent this year from fiscal policy, financial conditions, and AI investment.
“I expect real GDP growth to be close to 2-1/2 percent this year, reflecting tailwinds from fiscal policy, favorable financial conditions, and investment in AI.”
Williams expects inflation around 3 percent this year, reaching 2 percent target in 2027.
“Looking ahead, my base case is for inflation to be about 3 percent this year, before dropping to our 2 percent target in 2027”
Williams expects inflation around 2.75 percent this year, reaching 2 percent target in 2027.
“I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-3/4 percent this year, before reaching our longer-run 2 percent target in 2027.”
Williams expects GDP growth of about 2.5 percent this year driven by fiscal stimulus, financial conditions, and AI investment.
“I expect real GDP to grow about 2-1/2 percent this year, supported by stimulus from fiscal policy, favorable financial conditions, and robust investments in artificial intelligence.”
Williams expects real GDP growth to slow considerably to just over 1 percent this year.
“I expect real GDP growth this year will slow considerably from last year’s pace, to just over 1 percent.”
Williams forecasts GDP growth of 2 to 2.25 percent and unemployment of 4.25 to 4.5 percent.
“Consequently, with growth around its trend pace, I expect the unemployment rate will remain in its recent range of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.”
Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation hitting 3 percent in 2025 before declining to 2 percent.
“With this deceleration of real GDP, I expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 4-1/2 percent by the end of this year.”
Williams forecasts unemployment declining, inflation at 2.5 percent in 2026, then falling to 2 percent in 2027.
“And with the effects of tariffs on inflation waning later in the year, I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-1/2 percent in 2026, then fall to 2 percent in 2027.”
Williams expects real GDP growth of about 1 percent in 2025.
“As a result, I expect real GDP growth this year to be about 1 percent.”
Williams forecasts unemployment rising to around 4.5 percent by end of 2025.
“With this slowdown in growth, I expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 4-1/2 percent by the end of this year.”
Williams forecasts inflation of 3 to 3.5 percent in 2025, declining to 2 percent by 2027.
“I anticipate inflation will come in between 3 and 3-1/2 percent in 2025, and then fall back to about 2-1/2 percent next year before reaching 2 percent in 2027.”
Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation at 3 to 3.25 percent this year, reaching 2 percent in 2027.
“And I expect PCE inflation to come in between 3 and 3-1/4 percent this year, before declining to around 2-1/2 percent next year, and reaching 2 percent in 2027.”
Williams estimates tariffs have added 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to current inflation without second-round effects.
“My estimate is that increased tariffs have contributed about one half to three quarters of a percentage point to the current inflation rate.”
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“Looking ahead, I expect real GDP growth to be around 2 to 2-1/4 percent this year and over the next two years.”
Williams forecasts GDP growth of 2 to 2.25 percent with unemployment declining to 4 percent by 2028.
“With growth running modestly above my estimate of its potential rate of 2 percent, I expect the unemployment rate to edge down very gradually to 4 percent in 2028.”
Williams expects inflation to fall to 3.25 percent by year-end, reaching 2 percent target in 2028.
“For the reasons I outlined a moment ago, I expect overall inflation to decline to around 3-1/4 percent by year-end, then continue on a glide path toward our 2 percent goal in 2027 and land on target in 2028.”
Williams notes Treasury estimates TGA balances could peak around $1.025 trillion by late April, drawing down reserves.
“In fact, the U.S. Treasury recently estimated that TGA balances could peak around $1.025 trillion by late April, amid tax season inflows, likely resulting in a notable drawdown in reserves.”