Williams reports tariff receipts as share of imports rose from 2.25 percent early year to 8 percent in May.
“Net tariff receipts as a share of imports rose from about 2-1/4 percent in the first three months of the year to about 8 percent in May.”
Williams notes productivity growth swings from minus 2 to 7 percent yearly versus 2 percent long-run average.
“Year-over-year productivity growth swings from minus 2 percent to 7 percent, compared to the long-run average of just over 2 percent ( Figure 1 ).”
Williams says inflation fell from 7.25% in mid-2022 to 2.75% in 2024, below December projections.
“Inflation declined from a peak of 7-1/4 percent in mid-2022 to 2-3/4 percent in 2024.”
Williams reports PCE inflation rose to 3.5 percent in March.
“On the price stability side of the Fed’s dual mandate, overall inflation—as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index—rose to 3-1/2 percent in March.”