Williams notes unemployment has stayed in a 4.3 to 4.5 percent band since July.
“The unemployment rate has fluctuated in a narrow band of 4.3 to 4.5 percent since last July, and unemployment insurance claims remain low.”
Williams sees increased downside employment risks and lessened upside inflation risks as labor market cools.
“My assessment is that the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat.”
Williams sees no significant second-round tariff effects or labor market inflation pressures.
“There are no signs of significant second-round effects from tariffs spilling over to the rest of the economy, and the labor market is not adding to inflation pressures.”
Williams says New York City employment growth has broadened from healthcare to include technology sector.
“After being driven primarily by healthcare over the past few years, employment growth in and around New York City has broadened to include the technology sector.”
Williams sees no second-round effects from tariffs, citing anchored expectations and no supply chain bottlenecks.
“In particular, inflation expectations are very well anchored, no broad-based supply chain bottlenecks have emerged, labor markets are not creating inflationary pressures, and wage growth has moderated.”