Williams says average effective tariff rate estimates range between 15 and 20 percent.
“Combining enacted and announced tariffs, estimates of the resulting average effective tariff rate range somewhere between 15 and 20 percent.”
Williams suggests centrally clearing standing repo operations could improve participation and efficacy, noting other central banks moving this way.
“Centrally clearing SRPs would be one way to reduce such cost and thus could further improve counterparty participation and the efficacy of SRPs in curbing rate pressures and maintaining the stability of funding markets.”
Williams says regular engagement helps central banks fine-tune approaches by learning from each other's experiences.
“I’ve found that regular engagement allows central banks to fine-tune their individual approaches, so that we can learn from one another’s experiences to better meet the needs of our constituencies.”
Williams reports the FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent.
“Accordingly, at its meeting last week, the FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.”
Williams says the Committee will consider stopping runoff when reserves reach ample levels.
“The Committee has indicated that it will consider stopping balance sheet runoff when we reach that point.”
Williams argues gradual recognition of productivity shifts causes both consumption and investment to grow with delayed interest rate increases.
“With gradual recognition consistent with empirical evidence, an acceleration in productivity results in faster growth of both consumption and investment.”
Williams announces FOMC will end balance sheet runoff on December 1.
“At its meeting last week, the FOMC decided it would conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1.”
Williams confirms the FOMC ended balance sheet runoff effective December 1.
“the Committee made that decision at its October meeting, with portfolio runoff ending effective December 1.”
Williams says the Fed will resume growing the balance sheet when reserves reach ample levels.
“When market conditions suggest reserves are ample, we will provide those liabilities by beginning to grow our balance sheet once again.”
Williams argues central banks should support economic historians because they can efficiently provide complementary research inputs.
“This observation to me provides a compelling reason for why a central bank Research Group should support economic historians.”