“Looking ahead, I expect real GDP growth to be around 2 to 2-1/4 percent this year and over the next two years.”
Williams forecasts 2.5 percent GDP growth this year with unemployment edging down through next year.
“With growth running above potential, I expect the unemployment rate to edge down over this year and next.”
Williams says GDP growth has been around 2 percent for the past year and a half.
“For the past year and a half, we’ve seen solid GDP growth, at around 2 percent.”
Williams expects real GDP growth of about 1 percent in 2025.
“As a result, I expect real GDP growth this year to be about 1 percent.”
Williams expects GDP growth in 2025 to be between 1.25 and 1.5 percent.
“As a result, I expect GDP growth this year to be between 1-1/4 and 1-1/2 percent.”
Williams expects GDP growth near 2.5 percent this year from fiscal policy, financial conditions, and AI investment.
“I expect real GDP growth to be close to 2-1/2 percent this year, reflecting tailwinds from fiscal policy, favorable financial conditions, and investment in AI.”
Williams says real GDP grew 2 percent in 2025 and expects that pace to continue this year.
“Real GDP grew 2 percent in 2025 and is poised to maintain that pace for the rest of this year.”
Williams says SOMA portfolio is now $6.4 trillion or 20 percent of GDP, down from pandemic peak of $8.5 trillion.
“Assets are now slowly growing in dollar terms, via RMPs, to maintain ample reserves and accommodate growth in the demand for Federal Reserve liabilities.”
Williams says first-half GDP growth was about 1.5 percent, well below last year's 2.5 percent pace.
“Looking through the downs and ups in the data, growth in the first half of the year was about 1-1/2 percent, well below last year’s 2-1/2 percent pace.”
Williams expects real GDP growth to slow considerably to just over 1 percent this year.
“I expect real GDP growth this year will slow considerably from last year’s pace, to just over 1 percent.”
Williams expects GDP growth of about 2.5 percent this year driven by fiscal stimulus, financial conditions, and AI investment.
“I expect real GDP to grow about 2-1/2 percent this year, supported by stimulus from fiscal policy, favorable financial conditions, and robust investments in artificial intelligence.”
Williams expects GDP growth of 2.5 to 2.75 percent in 2026, driven by fiscal policy and AI investment.
“I expect the economy to grow above trend this year, with real GDP growth between 2-1/2 and 2-3/4 percent.”
Williams says the balance sheet has fallen from 35 percent of GDP in early 2022 to around 22 percent now.
“Our balance sheet has fallen from the equivalent of around 35 percent of GDP, in early 2022, to around 22 percent of GDP now.”
Williams forecasts GDP growth of 2 to 2.25 percent and unemployment of 4.25 to 4.5 percent.
“Consequently, with growth around its trend pace, I expect the unemployment rate will remain in its recent range of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.”
Williams forecasts GDP growth of 2 to 2.25 percent with unemployment declining to 4 percent by 2028.
“With growth running modestly above my estimate of its potential rate of 2 percent, I expect the unemployment rate to edge down very gradually to 4 percent in 2028.”