Williams notes unemployment has stayed in a 4.3 to 4.5 percent band since July.
“The unemployment rate has fluctuated in a narrow band of 4.3 to 4.5 percent since last July, and unemployment insurance claims remain low.”
Williams forecasts unemployment declining, inflation at 2.5 percent in 2026, then falling to 2 percent in 2027.
“And with the effects of tariffs on inflation waning later in the year, I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-1/2 percent in 2026, then fall to 2 percent in 2027.”
“Looking ahead, I expect real GDP growth to be around 2 to 2-1/4 percent this year and over the next two years.”
Williams forecasts 2.5 percent GDP growth this year with unemployment edging down through next year.
“With growth running above potential, I expect the unemployment rate to edge down over this year and next.”
Williams forecasts unemployment rising to around 4.5 percent by end of 2025.
“With this slowdown in growth, I expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 4-1/2 percent by the end of this year.”
Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation hitting 3 percent in 2025 before declining to 2 percent.
“With this deceleration of real GDP, I expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 4-1/2 percent by the end of this year.”
Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation at 3 to 3.25 percent this year, reaching 2 percent in 2027.
“And I expect PCE inflation to come in between 3 and 3-1/4 percent this year, before declining to around 2-1/2 percent next year, and reaching 2 percent in 2027.”
Williams forecasts GDP growth of 2 to 2.25 percent and unemployment of 4.25 to 4.5 percent.
“Consequently, with growth around its trend pace, I expect the unemployment rate will remain in its recent range of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.”
Williams forecasts GDP growth of 2 to 2.25 percent with unemployment declining to 4 percent by 2028.
“With growth running modestly above my estimate of its potential rate of 2 percent, I expect the unemployment rate to edge down very gradually to 4 percent in 2028.”