Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
5 of 5 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 2 May 2022 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Gavin Baker
1
thin
2 Apr 2020 – 2 Apr 2020
-760 d
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Howard Marks
4
thin
2 May 2022 – 2 Mar 2026
+0 d
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Brad Gerstner
1
thin
15 Oct 2025 – 15 Oct 2025
+1262 d
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Marc Rowan
2
thin
10 Dec 2025 – 21 Dec 2025
+1318 d
- John Williams 1 thin
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Gavin Baker
Baker says valuation spreads within sectors reached 4.5 standard deviations, now at 3.5 standard deviations.
“Valuation spreads within a sector between individual stocks are at all time highs. It was a 4.5 standard deviation relative to the norm only a few days ago.”
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“I think that one of the things you're taught here is that volatility is a measure of risk. Volatility is risk.”
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Howard Marks
Marks states risk cannot be quantified in advance and historical volatility is not a good risk indicator.
“risk is unquantifiable in advance. You can make reference to the historical volatility, the historical standard deviation, but number one, that's not a very good indicator of risk.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes NVIDIA dropped to $92 on tariffs but has recovered to $180.
“Remember the deep sea moment? Stock stock was down 25%. And then on the tariff moment, the stock got down to $92 a share. It's at a 180 today.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan contrasts tolerance for equity volatility with outsized reaction to single private credit defaults.
“We don't think anything of Nvidia or the S and P going up or down 10 or 15%, and yet one private credit loan or one broadly syndicated loan defaults and people lose their mind.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan says investors use levered lending to reduce risk compared to equities and high yield bonds.
“We don't think anything of Nvidia or the S and P going up or down 10 or 15%, and yet one private credit loan or one broadly syndicated loan defaults and people lose their mind.”
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Howard Marks
Marks quotes Buffett preferring a lumpy 15% return over a smooth 12%, challenging excessive focus on volatility.
“And I would say to people, if you'd rather have a smooth 12 than a lumpy 15, you have to ask yourself what's going on.”
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Howard Marks
Marks quotes Buffett preferring lumpy 15% returns over smooth 12% if you can survive volatility.
“And if you can survive long enough to enjoy the long term benefit of the lumpy 15, it beats the hell out of the smooth 12.”
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John Williams
Williams notes productivity growth swings from minus 2 to 7 percent yearly versus 2 percent long-run average.
“Year-over-year productivity growth swings from minus 2 percent to 7 percent, compared to the long-run average of just over 2 percent ( Figure 1 ).”
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