Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
4 of 5 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 2 May 2022 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Gavin Baker
1
thin
2 Apr 2020 – 2 Apr 2020
-760 d
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Howard Marks
5
2 May 2022 – 2 Mar 2026
+0 d
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Brad Gerstner
4
thin
9 Aug 2024 – 2 Dec 2025
+830 d
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Marc Rowan
3
thin
10 Dec 2025 – 6 Feb 2026
+1318 d
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John Williams
3
thin
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Gavin Baker
Baker says valuation spreads within sectors reached 4.5 standard deviations, now at 3.5 standard deviations.
“Valuation spreads within a sector between individual stocks are at all time highs. It was a 4.5 standard deviation relative to the norm only a few days ago.”
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“I think that one of the things you're taught here is that volatility is a measure of risk. Volatility is risk.”
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Howard Marks
Marks states risk cannot be quantified in advance and historical volatility is not a good risk indicator.
“risk is unquantifiable in advance. You can make reference to the historical volatility, the historical standard deviation, but number one, that's not a very good indicator of risk.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner estimates 20 trillion dollars in yen carry trades with Buffett borrowing 200 billion yen.
“there are estimates that up to $20,000,000,000,000 of yen was borrowed, and then you invest that in rate yielding assets around the world and you pocket the spread.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports NASDAQ moved 30 percentage points in sixty to seventy days from trough to recovery.
“It's a 30 move in about sixty or seventy days, which is extraordinary even by the historical patterns that we've seen over the course of the last five years.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes NVIDIA dropped to $92 on tariffs but has recovered to $180.
“Remember the deep sea moment? Stock stock was down 25%. And then on the tariff moment, the stock got down to $92 a share. It's at a 180 today.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says AI added 100 basis points to GDP this year despite NVIDIA's 225% drawdowns.
“It added a 100 basis points to GDP this year. But remember, this year, we had 225% drawdowns in Nvidia.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan contrasts tolerance for equity volatility with outsized reaction to single private credit defaults.
“We don't think anything of Nvidia or the S and P going up or down 10 or 15%, and yet one private credit loan or one broadly syndicated loan defaults and people lose their mind.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan says investors use levered lending to reduce risk compared to equities and high yield bonds.
“We don't think anything of Nvidia or the S and P going up or down 10 or 15%, and yet one private credit loan or one broadly syndicated loan defaults and people lose their mind.”
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Marc Rowan
Rowan contrasts tolerance for daily equity volatility with outsized reaction to small private credit moves.
“In fact, every day the market goes up or down, but we don't think of those as losses. And yet, the private credit market moves down two points and the world comes apart.”
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Howard Marks
Marks quotes Buffett preferring lumpy 15% return over smooth 12%, challenging volatility aversion.
“Buffett again. Buffett says, I'd rather have a lumpy 15% return than a smooth 12.”
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Howard Marks
Marks quotes Buffett preferring a lumpy 15% return over a smooth 12%, challenging excessive focus on volatility.
“And I would say to people, if you'd rather have a smooth 12 than a lumpy 15, you have to ask yourself what's going on.”
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Howard Marks
Marks quotes Buffett preferring lumpy 15% returns over smooth 12% if you can survive volatility.
“And if you can survive long enough to enjoy the long term benefit of the lumpy 15, it beats the hell out of the smooth 12.”
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John Williams
Williams notes productivity growth swings from minus 2 to 7 percent yearly versus 2 percent long-run average.
“Year-over-year productivity growth swings from minus 2 percent to 7 percent, compared to the long-run average of just over 2 percent ( Figure 1 ).”
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John Williams
Williams says the FX market withstood April volatility with stable spreads and increased platform volumes.
“The market withstood those pressures, as evidenced by fairly stable bid-ask spreads, market depth, and price impact measures. Trading volumes on primary platforms also increased notably, as is typical during highly volatile periods.”
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John Williams
Williams says non-reserve liabilities have swung by up to $460 billion over one-month periods recently.
“In recent years, aggregate non-reserve liabilities (excluding ON RRP) have increased by as much as about $250 billion on certain days and by as much as roughly $460 billion over a rolling 1-month time horizon ( Panel 10 ).”
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