Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
5 of 7 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 12 Mar 2025 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Gavin Baker
4
thin
2 Apr 2020 – 4 Aug 2026
-1805 d
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Bill Gurley
2
thin
7 Dec 2021 – 7 Dec 2021
-1191 d
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Brad Gerstner
18
21 Mar 2024 – 2 Jul 2026
-356 d
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Howard Lutnick
2
thin
12 Mar 2025 – 20 Mar 2025
+0 d
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David Friedberg
2
thin
16 May 2025 – 16 May 2025
+65 d
- Dylan Patel 15 18 Sep 2025 – 25 Aug 2026 +190 d
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Scott Bessent
4
thin
20 Aug 2026 – 20 Aug 2026
+526 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Gavin Baker
Baker argues software at 30% of IT spend today versus 7-10% in 2008-09 means it will get cut.
“And I think that is dangerous because in 'eight, 'nine software was seven to 10 of IT spend. And today it's roughly 30% excluding spending on the big cloud hyperscale infrastructures”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Second Life grew from zero to $70 million revenue in under eighteen months.
“I think the company went from 0 to 70,000,000 in revenue in less than eighteen months. And so you had this vision and excitement about what was possible.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Second Life went from zero to 70 million dollars in revenue in under eighteen months.
“I think the company went from 0 to 70,000,000 in revenue in less than eighteen months.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner explains that ARR (annual recurring revenue) gets high multiples because it's predictable like cable subscriptions.
“ARR stands for annual recurring revenue. And recurring revenue, like a monopoly cable subscription, gets a really high multiple. That's why softwares have gotten high multiples. They're very predictable.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner estimates OpenAI's consumer business represents $2.1 billion of roughly $3-4 billion total revenue.
“It would imply that there are about 2.1 of the three four is the consumer business”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner calculates OpenAI's rumored $150 billion valuation represents 15 times forward revenue of roughly $10 billion.
“If that trajectory were to continue, right, that'd give you like roughly $10,000,000,000 next year. And the round's rumored to be at $150,000,000,000 so that's about 15 times forward revenue.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes NVIDIA's 2023 revenue was $60B versus analyst forecasts of $26B in January 2023.
“The forecast for Nvidia at that dinner in January 2023 was that you would do 26,000,000,000 of revenue for the year 2023. You did 60,000,000,000, right?”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says OpenAI will do $5B revenue this year, $10B next, twice Google's IPO revenue.
“Reports are that they'll do 5,000,000,000 ish of revenue or run rate revenue this year, maybe going to 10,000,000,000 next year.”
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Howard Lutnick
Lutnick says Musk will cut $1 trillion in waste while administration earns $1 trillion revenue to balance budget.
“Elon Musk is gonna cut a trillion of waste, fraud, and abuse, and we are gonna earn a trillion dollars of revenue, and we are gonna balance the budget for Donald Trump.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports OpenAI will exceed $11 billion in revenue this year per recent CNBC disclosure.
“OpenAI, you could see the pacing from the launch of their first consumer product relative to Google and Meta. Sarah just talked on CNBC last week, this year will be over $11,000,000,000”
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Howard Lutnick
Lutnick claims the administration will cut a trillion in expenses and raise a trillion in new revenues.
“I think we're going cut a trillion dollars a year in expense, and then I think we can, through tariffs and other means, we're going to get revenues of a trillion dollars.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg states Google's search ad revenue runs at $200 billion annually out of $360 billion total revenue.
“the core search business, which the ad revenue in search is about a $200,000,000,000 run rate out of $360,000,000,000 of your total revenue, most of your profits.”
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David Friedberg
Friedberg states Google's search ad revenue runs at $200B annually out of $360B total revenue.
“the ad revenue in search is about a $200,000,000,000 run rate out of $360,000,000,000 of your total revenue, most of your profits.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner states OpenAI is four times the size Google was at IPO in revenue and searches.
“OpenAI today is four times the size that Google was when it went public in terms of revenue, in terms of searches.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts Anthropic's revenue growth will match OpenAI's by 2027 based on current trajectory.
“Their revenue growth rate right now implies that they would be OpenAI sometime in 2027, which is a really, really big deal in terms of revenue.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Substack monetization reached hundreds of thousands in months, then millions before he left the platform.
“It got to a few $100,000 of revenue and I was like, Holy crap. And then I was able to start hiring. And then I left when we hit a few million of revenue.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel left Substack initially after reaching a few million in revenue to avoid the 10% fee.
“And then I left when we hit a few million of revenue. More and more of the revenue was coming from not Substack. The reason was like, Hey, Substack takes 10%.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says his Substack revenue alone reached multi-million dollars, sufficient to fund significant coverage.
“Now, scaled to be And it has scaled to be multi million dollar Substack revenue.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Substack revenue alone reached multi-million dollars before expanding beyond the platform.
“Now, scaled to be And it has scaled to be multi million dollar Substack revenue. Obviously, built a lot of business beyond that, even that is good enough”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner contrasts OpenAI's $13 billion revenue with its $1.4 trillion compute commitment over four to five years.
“OpenAI's revenues are still a reported $13,000,000,000 in 2025. And Sam, on your live stream this week, you talked about this massive commitment to compute, right? 1,400,000,000,000 over the next four or five years”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues $100-200B annual capex is responsible if OpenAI hits $100-200B revenue in 2028-29.
“Now if they're doing a 100 to 200,000,000,000 in revenue in 2829, then now we're in the zone of responsible.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports Altman disclosed OpenAI is doing more than $13 billion in revenue.
“Sam came on the podcast. He was a little bit feisty. And he said, listen. We're doing more than 13,000,000,000 in revenue.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes Altman tweeted OpenAI will exit the year at $20 billion in revenue.
“And he just said in his tweet that they're gonna exit the year at $20,000,000,000 in revenue.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports Altman expects OpenAI to exceed $100 billion in revenue in 2027 or 2028.
“What Sam said multiple times on the pod and since is that he expects that they'll do over 100,000,000,000 in revenues in twenty seven or '28.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel states AI labs are projecting one hundred billion dollars in revenue by 2027-2028 with 2-3x growth.
“So, these labs are now projecting revenues of 100,000,000,000 in 2728, and they're projecting revenue keeps growing at this rate of like 3x, 2x”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says neo clouds that ranked highest on ClusterMax benchmarks booked significantly more revenue.
“And since then we just released the second version, but in the middle, the clouds that ranked the highest actually ended up booking way, way, way more revenue.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner notes NVIDIA added almost $200 billion of revenue in the last three years.
“You know, you've seen NVIDIA add almost $200,000,000,000 of revenue in the last three years. Yeah. Truly extraordinary.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says NVIDIA indicated a $100 billion run rate expected by end of next year.
“And they just told us that we should expect a run rate by the end of next year of a $100,000,000,000.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner argues AI must generate $1 trillion revenue to justify current CapEx versus $400 billion for all software.
“then you've gotta earn about a trillion dollars of AI revenue for all of this CapEx to be worth it.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner reports OpenAI added one billion dollars in API revenue in the last thirty days.
“OpenAI just announced last in the last few days that they've added $1,000,000,000 of API revenue in the last thirty days.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Anthropic's $300 billion revenue target for end of decade is actually too conservative.
“when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have $300,000,000,000 of revenue by the end of the decade. And it's like, actually, I think that number's too low.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel states Anthropic now adds $23 billion revenue monthly versus few hundred million earlier.
“Anthropics, you know, adding $23,000,000,000 of revenue a month now Mhmm. Versus they were just adding a few 100,000,000 of revenue a month earlier. So clearly, we're in the take off period.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports $19 billion Anthropic revenue is driven by code spend, implying industry-wide $20 billion expenditure.
“You look at like quad code spend, right, it's freaking nuts. Right? 19,000,000,000 of revenue for Anthropic now. All of that is, you know, at some multiple is code.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts Anthropic revenue will grow from $19B to $60B by year end amid majority-negative AI sentiment.
“The sentiment is already more than half Americans have a negative view of AI. As we fast forward to the end of this year, as Anthropix revenue goes from 19,000,000,000 to maybe 60, and OpenAI is similar, if not higher, the amount of jobs that get supplemented, the amount of change that happens in society,”
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Dylan Patel
Patel cites Anthropic adding $67 billion ARR per month as evidence of expanding AI revenue beyond hyperscalers.
“You're starting to see it with Anthropix revenue adding $67,000,000,000 of ARR a month, but there's so many more firms coming online with revenue streaming in,”
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Dylan Patel
Patel claims code agent revenue grew from a couple billion to over $10 billion in a very short time.
“code agent revenue has gone from a couple billion to north of 10,000,000,000 in like a very short amount of time. And these, the horizon of these has also increased dramatically,”
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Gavin Baker
Baker estimates Anthropic could be doing $100-200 billion in revenue if unconstrained by compute availability.
“So I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says SpaceX moved to $27 billion AI hyperscaler revenue in six weeks with Anthropic and Google deals.
“In literally six weeks, they went from not in the game to $27,000,000,000 of AI hyperscaler revenue with big deals Google? With big deals from Anthropic and Google.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner predicts a robust back half if OpenAI hits $100 billion exit revenue and IPOs this year.
“If that revenue is on track, right, if they're headed to a $100,000,000,000 of exit revenue, you know, this year and and and have an IPO in the back half, I think you could see a really robust, you know, back half of the year.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker estimates SpaceX monetizes compute at $50B per gigawatt versus $73B consensus, with Grok and Cursor hitting $10B ARR quickly.
“And they're monetizing at something like 50,000,000,000 a gig and consensus estimates for next year are 73,000,000,000. So forget Starlink v three, forget Starlink direct to sell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker calculates eight gigawatts at $50B per gigawatt implies $400B revenue versus $73B consensus for SpaceX.
“If they bring on anywhere near that, the consensus estimate is 73,000,000,000. That's eight gigs at 50,000,000,000 a gig. And, obviously, that would not all be lit up at the beginning of twenty seven.”
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Scott Bessent
Bessent forecasts 2026 tariff revenue will match 2025 levels and contribute to budget consolidation.
“I would expect that our 2026 tariff income is gonna be roughly what it was in '25, and we're gonna be able to keep that in terms of the budget consolidation.”
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Scott Bessent
Bessent expresses confidence that tariff income will match or exceed last year's level, attributing most deficit increase to tariffs.
“I am confident that we will be back to a, the same level, if not higher, of tariff income for last year, and that is most of the increase in the deficit.”
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Scott Bessent
Bessent argues the American people already had the tariff money through the U.S. treasury.
“The American people had that money. And if I hear another Democratic legislature say make the inane remark, the American people should get the money.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Anthropic generates $50 million per megawatt revenue, enabling 5x return on inference spending.
“In the case of Anthropic, the the revenue has gone as high as $50,000,000 per megawatt.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports Anthropic now generates up to $50 million per megawatt, a 5x return on compute costs.
“And and what that now enables them to do is, hey, if I spend $10 on inference capacity, actually generate $50 of revenue,”
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Scott Bessent
Bessent cites estimates that cocaine trafficking through Mexico produces billions in annual cartel revenue.
“With Mexico as the primary destination for drugs leaving Ecuador, it is estimated that cocaine trafficking produces billions in revenue for cartels annually.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- CNBC Television also carries Brad Gerstner, Dylan Patel and Scott Bessent on this subject, at different times.
- All-In Podcast also carries David Friedberg and Howard Lutnick on this subject, at different times.
- Invest Like the Best also carries Bill Gurley and Gavin Baker on this subject, at different times.