Baker estimates SpaceX monetizes compute at $50B per gigawatt versus $73B consensus, with Grok and Cursor hitting $10B ARR quickly.
“And they're monetizing at something like 50,000,000,000 a gig and consensus estimates for next year are 73,000,000,000. So forget Starlink v three, forget Starlink direct to sell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor.”
Baker calculates eight gigawatts at $50B per gigawatt implies $400B revenue versus $73B consensus for SpaceX.
“If they bring on anywhere near that, the consensus estimate is 73,000,000,000. That's eight gigs at 50,000,000,000 a gig. And, obviously, that would not all be lit up at the beginning of twenty seven.”
Baker argues software at 30% of IT spend today versus 7-10% in 2008-09 means it will get cut.
“And I think that is dangerous because in 'eight, 'nine software was seven to 10 of IT spend. And today it's roughly 30% excluding spending on the big cloud hyperscale infrastructures”
post Baker argues game theory suggests memory LTAs are durable and Nvidia may have significant cloud revenue shares
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2084699467010195882
post Baker endorses data centers as beneficial for America, reacting to Quincy Washington's economic transformation
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2093071802972999851