Baker estimates Anthropic could do $100-200B in unconstrained revenue if compute weren't limited.
“So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained. I'm gonna make up a new number. URR, unconstrained revenue.”
Baker estimates Anthropic would do $100-200 billion ARR unconstrained by compute, valuing it at 5x URR.
“I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.”
Baker estimates Anthropic could be doing $100-200 billion in revenue if unconstrained by compute availability.
“So I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.”
Baker says understanding frontier AI now requires enterprise usage-based plans, not $250 monthly subscriptions which are rate-limited.
“To understand what Frontier AI is capable of today, even for a non coding use case, need to have Cloud Code or Codex five point Codex.”
Baker estimates Anthropic would be doing $100-150B ARR if not compute-constrained, versus current $50B.
“And I think maybe a true statement is that Infantropic could just wave a magic wand and get all the compute they wanted. They'd probably be doing well north of $100,000,000,000 today, maybe 150.”
Baker predicts OpenAI and Anthropic will exceed $200B ARR this year due to shift to usage-based pricing.
“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over $200,000,000,000 in ARR this year.”
Baker says Anthropic adding $11B ARR in one month is unprecedented in capitalism's history.
“Anthropic added their combined businesses in one month. Nothing like that has ever happened in the history of capitalism.”
Baker says Anthropic added $11B ARR, comparing it to the entire SaaS revolution's $5-10T value creation.
“Anthropic, they added $11,000,000,000 of AR. And what is astonishing to me about this is that the SaaS and cloud revolution it created, we'll call it between 5 and $10,000,000,000,000 of value.”
Baker says Anthropic added $11B ARR in one month, matching what Palantir, Snowflake, and Databricks built in ten years combined.
“And these three companies employ thousands of people, tens of thousands collectively. They've all spent ten years building their businesses and Anthropic added their combined businesses in one month.”
Baker predicts OpenAI and Anthropic will exceed $200B ARR this year due to usage-based pricing shift.
“I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over $200,000,000,000 in ARR this year.”
Baker believes Anthropic is likely already generating cash or will start this year.
“I think Anthropic probably starts generating cash this year if they are not already generating cash, which I think is probably the case.”
Baker asks where Anthropic's and OpenAI's combined 150b ARR came from, disputes that leveraging up is only funding path
“@dampedspring Where has Anthropic’s and OpenAI’s combined 150b of ARR come from? I don’t think the idea that leveraging up is the only way to fund this is at all correct.”
“@jukan05 4 gigawatts this year and another 4 next year per this report. Spot price for compute has gone up since they signed their Anthropic and Google deals.”
Baker says incredible Anthropic results made him comfortable with Blackwell air pocket risk.
“I think one reason to the podcast two months ago, I got comfortable with that risk was just that you were seeing such incredible things out of anthropic.”
Baker notes FT reports three trillion dollar Anthropic valuation, says public markets struggle to value this high growth
“$3 trillion for Anthropic in the FT. I feel like I’ve heard that somewhere else. Although public markets generally struggle to accurately value growth when it is this high. https://t.co/2R80q18GUH”
Baker notes the Financial Times reported a three trillion dollar valuation for Anthropic and suggests public markets struggle to value high growth.
“$3 trillion for Anthropic in the FT. I feel like I’ve heard that somewhere else. Although public markets generally struggle to accurately value growth when it is this high.”
Baker notes that a three trillion dollar valuation for Anthropic appeared in the Financial Times, suggesting he predicted this figure earlier.
“$3 trillion for Anthropic in the FT. I feel like I’ve heard that somewhere else. Although public markets generally struggle to accurately value growth when it is this high.”
Baker predicts Anthropic will price its IPO around two trillion dollars then trade upward to three to four trillion.
“ Baker said. His working prediction: price around $2 trillion, then let the stock trade upward to roughly $3 trillion, possibly toward $3–4 trillion. Polymarket traders, for what it's worth, were already pricing an 80 percent probability of an Anthropic IPO this year and 67 percent odds that the company holds the top model at year-end. The strategic reason this pricing matters extends far beyond one company. Sacks argues that Anthropic's quarterly disclosures will become the industry's single most important demand signal — the pace car for NVIDIA, TSMC, Micron, SK Hynix, and everyone else in the chain. ”
Baker reports hearing from multiple sources that Dario Amodei believes Anthropic could become the only private company in the world, with only governments remaining.
“Internally, Anthropic is very confident. I have been told by multiple people I trust that Dario has said that Anthropic might be the only private company in the world at some point. Think about that. In this vision, an Anthropic maximalist vision, there's Anthropic, and then there are governments, and that's it. So there's a lot of confidence. I'm sure they have more advanced checkpoints than Fable up their sleeve. They've executed really, really well. I would probably take the under on them being the only private company in the world. Yeah, I think it's gonna be a long time before they land a rocket.”
Baker claims Anthropic is losing market share to OpenAI, open source, and Grok while still posting exceptional growth numbers.
“On the margin, Anthropic is losing share to OpenAI, to open source, and to Grok, and they're still growing so fast the numbers are still exceptional.”
Baker says he would discourage Dario Amodei from repeating a particular statement to anyone.
“I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.”
Baker advises Dario not to repeat a particular statement to anyone.
“I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.”
Baker suggests extreme confidence from Anthropic leadership could be a negative signal comparable to Sam Bankman-Fried's hubris.
“I might interpret that as a negative signal because it's so hubristic. This is getting into SBF land a little bit.”
Baker says he was told by multiple trusted sources that Dario believes Anthropic could be the only company left in the world.
“Gavin Baker: Anthropic Believes They Could Be the ONLY Company Left in the World “I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.” @GavinSBaker: “Internally, Anthropic is very confident. I have been told by multiple people I trust that Dario ha… / X Post Log in Sign up Post The All-In Podcast on X: ”
“@altcap @_sholtodouglas @DarioAmodei Yes!”
Baker posts his reply about Anthropic comments from All-In podcast
“Posting my reply to @_sholtodouglas given that some of my comments about Anthropic on @theallinpod yesterday have been widely discussed here on X and I think the topic is important. https://t.co/NF7MaO8wl1”
Baker says multiple serious Silicon Valley people believe Anthropic wants to be only private company, consistent with Dario's messaging
“@_sholtodouglas Sholto, thank you for setting the record straight. Larger issue is that multiple very serious people in Silicon Valley have heard some variation of this and believe it to be true. And the reason it is believable to so many is that it is consistent with Dario’s public messaging”
“@DarioAmodei Many thoughts. Most of all, I think it is great that you are engaging here in such a constructive, thoughtful way. Open dialogue is a great way to build trust with the public and these are difficult, weighty issues that I think deserve to be debated in the proverbial “town”
Baker says Dario's public commentary makes it believable he said Anthropic might be the only private company
“@sashadem @theallinpod I believe both you and Sholto. This issue is that Dario’s own public commentary makes it believable to many serious people in Silicon Valley that Dario might have said something similar to “Anthropic might end up being the only private company.” I would love nothing more than to https://t.co/NF7MaO8wl1”
The Anthropic S-1 filing will challenge the assumptions of macro and value investors.
“The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications”
Baker notes someone described Dario Amodei as having resting smiling face while discussing dark AI scenarios.
“He seems like a great guy, you know? Although it is funny, somebody said he was cursed with resting smiling face, and it is a little weird to listen to him talk about this terrible vision for humanity while he's smiling happily.”
Baker predicts that Anthropic's S-1 filing will reveal that AI tokens are not subsidized, contradicting assumptions held by many macro and value investors.
“The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized.”
Baker predicts the Anthropic S-1 filing will challenge assumptions by macro and value investors who believe AI tokens are subsidized.
“The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized.”
Baker argues AI should be distributed rather than centralized and opposes Anthropic deciding what is in users' best interests.
“I think Anthropic and people in the effective altruism movement believe that this technology is too dangerous to distribute. And what Mark Zuckerberg and I think Elon and Jensen believe is that this technology is too dangerous to centralize. And history has spoken, and when given the choice, it is always better to distribute and decentralize. There's really no counter example that I can think of. And just forget as an American, but as a human, I want an AI that looks out for me, and my conception of what's good for America. I do not want Dario Amodei or Anthropic deciding what's in my best interests. I just fundamentally don't want that.”
Baker argues AI is too dangerous to centralize and rejects letting Anthropic decide what serves his interests as an American.
“I think Anthropic and people in the effective altruism movement believe that this technology is too dangerous to distribute. And what Mark Zuckerberg and I think Elon and Jensen believe is that this technology is too dangerous to centralize. And history has spoken, and when given the choice, it is always better to distribute and decentralize. There's really no counter example that I can think of. And just forget as an American, but as a human, I want an AI that looks out for me, and my conception of what's good for America. I do not want Dario Amodei or Anthropic deciding what's in my best interests. I just fundamentally don't want that.”
Baker advises Dario Amodei to stop making certain statements to people.
“I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.”
Baker says multiple serious Silicon Valley figures have heard and believe claims about Dario that align with his public statements.
“@_sholtodouglas Sholto, thank you for setting the record straight. Larger issue is that multiple very serious people in Silicon Valley have heard some variation of this and believe it to be true. And the reason it is believable to so many is that it is consistent with Dario’s pub… / X Post Log in Sign up Post Gavin Baker on X: ”