Baker says incredible Anthropic results made him comfortable with Blackwell air pocket risk.
“I think one reason to the podcast two months ago, I got comfortable with that risk was just that you were seeing such incredible things out of anthropic.”
Baker says Anthropic added $11B ARR, comparing it to the entire SaaS revolution's $5-10T value creation.
“Anthropic, they added $11,000,000,000 of AR. And what is astonishing to me about this is that the SaaS and cloud revolution it created, we'll call it between 5 and $10,000,000,000,000 of value.”
Baker says Anthropic added $11B ARR in one month, matching what Palantir, Snowflake, and Databricks built in ten years combined.
“And these three companies employ thousands of people, tens of thousands collectively. They've all spent ten years building their businesses and Anthropic added their combined businesses in one month.”
Baker says Anthropic adding $11B ARR in one month is unprecedented in capitalism's history.
“Anthropic added their combined businesses in one month. Nothing like that has ever happened in the history of capitalism.”
Baker estimates Anthropic would be doing $100-150B ARR if not compute-constrained, versus current $50B.
“And I think maybe a true statement is that Infantropic could just wave a magic wand and get all the compute they wanted. They'd probably be doing well north of $100,000,000,000 today, maybe 150.”
Baker estimates Anthropic could be doing $100-200 billion in revenue if unconstrained by compute availability.
“So I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.”
Baker estimates Anthropic would do $100-200 billion ARR unconstrained by compute, valuing it at 5x URR.
“I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.”
Baker estimates Anthropic could do $100-200B in unconstrained revenue if compute weren't limited.
“So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained. I'm gonna make up a new number. URR, unconstrained revenue.”
Baker believes Anthropic is likely already generating cash or will start this year.
“I think Anthropic probably starts generating cash this year if they are not already generating cash, which I think is probably the case.”
Baker says understanding frontier AI now requires enterprise usage-based plans, not $250 monthly subscriptions which are rate-limited.
“To understand what Frontier AI is capable of today, even for a non coding use case, need to have Cloud Code or Codex five point Codex.”
Baker predicts OpenAI and Anthropic will exceed $200B ARR this year due to shift to usage-based pricing.
“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over $200,000,000,000 in ARR this year.”
Baker predicts OpenAI and Anthropic will exceed $200B ARR this year due to usage-based pricing shift.
“I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over $200,000,000,000 in ARR this year.”
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2082817582667796992
post Baker asks where Anthropic's and OpenAI's combined 150b ARR came from, disputes that leveraging up is only funding path
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2082208605210919404
post Baker says multiple serious Silicon Valley people believe Anthropic wants to be only private company, consistent with Dario's messaging
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2088611616577253502
post Baker notes FT reports three trillion dollar Anthropic valuation, says public markets struggle to value this high growth
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2087938897741242777
post Baker says Dario's public commentary makes it believable he said Anthropic might be the only private company
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2088617771072360864
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2088764430980947988
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2088764027786641570
post Baker posts his reply about Anthropic comments from All-In podcast
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2088613126614757429