Gavin Baker on

memory

10 quotes · 9 posts · Jan 2025 – Aug 2026

Saidverbatim, newest first

  1. Baker argues breaking memory supply agreements could destroy franchises due to allocation loss risk.

    “I just think given that this is, the axis around which kind of everything is revolving, man, like, might blow up your entire business and your franchise by breaking an LTA.”

    40:49 · Invest Like The Best · 4 Aug 2026 · permalink
  2. Baker suggests memory companies should copy NVIDIA's credit wrapper model despite business instability risks.

    “I would be going to the buyers of GPUs, Traniums, and whoever and say, I'll participate in the NVIDIA credit wrapper. Now their business is just inherently less stable and predictable,”

    43:57 · Invest Like The Best · 4 Aug 2026 · permalink
  3. Baker identifies memory as the single most important factor for increasing token output per compute unit.

    “It's the single most important thing you could do to increase token output per unit of compute, and then that obviously, definitionally, actually lowers costs,”

    32:26 · Invest Like the Best · 4 Aug 2026 · permalink
  4. Baker explains breaking memory LTAs could destroy companies by losing allocations when market tightens again.

    “Well, if they're breaking their LTAs, it probably means, you know, your oversupply, prices are coming down, and then, you know, capacity naturally contracts. Well, what do you think is gonna happen to Google's allocations?”

    33:39 · Invest Like the Best · 4 Aug 2026 · permalink
  5. Baker suggests memory companies should copy NVIDIA's credit wrapper model while they have cash and credit markets are tight.

    “I'm just making this up. But, like, do something. Like, you can because you have money now and credit markets are revolting.”

    36:37 · Invest Like the Best · 4 Aug 2026 · permalink
  6. Baker predicts GPUs will have 10-15 year useful lives due to prefill-inference disaggregation, extending older chips' value.

    “The disaggregation of inference means that I think these GPUs are going to have ten or fifteen year lives.”

    47:11 · listen · Invest Like the Best · 20 May 2026 · permalink
  7. Sohn Conference Foundation

    “I would say based on every memory cycle we have had for the last twenty five years, this is the time to be selling memory 100%.”

    8:20 · Sohn Conference Foundation · 15 May 2026 · permalink
  8. Baker believes NVIDIA could sell $11.52 trillion in chips next year if TSMC tripled capacity but bubble risks prevent it.

    “And if they doubled or tripled capacity, like, NVIDIA could probably sell $11,520,000,000,000 worth of chips next year. I really believe that. But the other side of that might be very painful for everyone.”

    11:49 · Sohn Conference Foundation · 15 May 2026 · permalink
  9. Baker warns a true DRAM capacity cycle could see prices increase 10X, not the typical 30-50%.

    “If the price of DRAM, if like a DRAM wafer is valued at like a five carat diamond.”

    1:06:16 · listen · Invest Like the Best · 9 Dec 2025 · permalink
  10. Baker reveals high bandwidth memory is a bigger cost component for NVIDIA than Taiwan Semi, with only two capable manufacturers.

    “High bandwidth memory is a bigger part of NVIDIA's cogs on GPUs than Taiwan Semi is. And today, there's two companies that can make it, Hynix and Micron.”

    1:14:22 · listen · All-In Podcast · 4 Jan 2025 · permalink

Postedtheir own words, on X

  1. post Baker predicts every accelerator company will do some variant of 3D DRAM or zHBM discussed at HotChips

  2. post Baker credits Jalapeño as first good ASIC outside TPU and Trainium but says disaggregated GPU plus SRAM will outperform

  3. post Baker dismisses SRAM scaling concerns as settled for anyone close to logic, memory and packaging roadmaps at wafer scale

  4. post Baker says no one thought someone was crazy and everyone will likely do 3D DRAM or zHBM

  5. post Baker announces Micron executive Sumit Sadana as speaker and says memory per FLOP drives tokens per watt

  6. post Baker argues game theory suggests memory LTAs are durable and Nvidia may have significant cloud revenue shares

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