Baker predicts OpenAI and Anthropic will exceed $200B ARR this year due to shift to usage-based pricing.
“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over $200,000,000,000 in ARR this year.”
Baker asks where Anthropic's and OpenAI's combined 150b ARR came from, disputes that leveraging up is only funding path
“@dampedspring Where has Anthropic’s and OpenAI’s combined 150b of ARR come from? I don’t think the idea that leveraging up is the only way to fund this is at all correct.”
Baker suggests NVIDIA accelerators have residual value that distinguishes them from first-party ASICs, responding to concerns about financing OpenAI hardware
“@dylan522p @TShirtnJeans2 @maxkan Some accelerators (the green ones) are not like the other accelerators.”
Baker suggests NVIDIA accelerators have residual value that distinguishes them from first-party ASICs, responding to concerns about financing OpenAI hardware
“@dylan522p @TShirtnJeans2 @maxkan Some accelerators (the green ones) are not like the other accelerators.”
Baker questions whether AFD is compatible with data locality, disputes OpenAI bet against disaggregation
“@maxkan Hmm. I might ask @dylan522p if Attention-FFN disaggregation (AFD) is compatible with data locality and not moving the KV cache. That constraint is what OpenAI focused on with Jalapeño. They absolutely did not make an “explicit bet that disagg is not the way to go.” There are https://t.co/2lVjH2M5vS”
Baker speculates Ultrafast will use GPUs plus CS-4/5, notes Jalapeño not financeable at GPU rates
“@dylan522p @maxkan Maybe GPUs plus CS-4/5 for Ultrafast at scale. Jalapeño not financeable at comparable rates to GPUs and probably not that big of a wafer allocation next 2 years. Jalapeño still a really impressive achievement from OpenAI. I remember being sad when they hired Thomas away from https://t.co/a0jIXXahXN”
Baker agrees that Jensen is competing with OpenAI and predicts American open-weight models will approach the frontier.
“@dnapway Directionally accurate imo. I think we are going to see American open-weight models approach the frontier one way or another.”
Baker agrees that Jensen is competing with OpenAI and predicts American open-weight models will approach the frontier.
“@dnapway Directionally accurate imo. I think we are going to see American open-weight models approach the frontier one way or another.”