Baker says GPUs got 50x faster while data centers only 4-5x faster, creating investment opportunity in infrastructure.
“GPUs have gotten 50 times faster, and the rest of the data center has only gotten four to five times faster.”
Baker explains GPUs got 50x faster while data center infrastructure only got 4-5x faster, causing low utilization.
“GPUs have gotten 50 times faster, and the rest of the data center has only gotten four to five times faster. And that is why MFU is so low.”
Baker predicts disaggregation extends GPU lives to 10-15 years, lowering financing costs and saving private credit.
“This is going to be really good for the whole private credit industry. It's going to help finance the AI build out.”
“Market is overreacting to hyperscale credit spreads widening from my perspective. TL;DR Spot pricing for renting GPU compute materially above contracted rates implies hyperscalers are underearning while operating cash flow acceleration is an underestimated source of funds for AI https://t.co/D9FSHXQ8F8”
Baker says no one in 2024 or 2025 expected that prices for older GPUs would still be rising sharply in 2026.
“I don't think anyone in '24 or '25 thought that the prices of old GPUs would still be going vertical in 2026,”
Baker hypothesizes tomorrow's Ultrafast will be GPUs or Jalapeño with CS-4 or CS-5
“@dylan522p @maxkan And they also said this followed by “Cerebras FTW.” I would be surprised if their head of Codex was unaware of their roadmap. Reasonable to hypothesize tomorrow’s Ultrafast will be either GPUs or Jalapeño working with CS-4 or CS-5. We shall see! https://t.co/QM0vs809x7”
Baker speculates Ultrafast will use GPUs plus CS-4/5, notes Jalapeño not financeable at GPU rates
“@dylan522p @maxkan Maybe GPUs plus CS-4/5 for Ultrafast at scale. Jalapeño not financeable at comparable rates to GPUs and probably not that big of a wafer allocation next 2 years. Jalapeño still a really impressive achievement from OpenAI. I remember being sad when they hired Thomas away from https://t.co/a0jIXXahXN”