Baker notes SpaceX added massive compute capacity instantly without any market price impact.
“they put a vast amount of compute into the market overnight, and it wasn't even really a blip. It was like the market just utterly absorbed it.”
Baker argues silicon will eat the world because AI is far more computationally intensive than deterministic software.
“And the nature of AI just as AI eats the world, silicon is going to eat the world because it's so much more computationally intensive than deterministic software written by humans.”
Baker explains AI recomputes answers probabilistically each time, enabling superhuman capabilities but requiring extreme computational expense.
“AI, even if you put a harness on it, even if you do the chain of thought, even if you have multiple agents, it's probabilistic that it is recomputing the answer each time.”
Baker estimates Anthropic could be doing $100-200 billion in revenue if unconstrained by compute availability.
“So I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.”
Baker estimates Anthropic could do $100-200B in unconstrained revenue if compute weren't limited.
“So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained. I'm gonna make up a new number. URR, unconstrained revenue.”
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2082817582667796992
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2082506941226721745
post Baker hypothesizes tomorrow's Ultrafast will be GPUs or Jalapeño with CS-4 or CS-5
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2092666151520411790
post Baker speculates Ultrafast will use GPUs plus CS-4/5, notes Jalapeño not financeable at GPU rates
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2092667328651800694
post Baker questions whether AFD is compatible with data locality, disputes OpenAI bet against disaggregation
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2092630582471823849
post Baker notes compute brought on in June may show Q3 acceleration
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2082209435506872408