Baker predicts xAI will release the first Blackwell model because Elon builds data centers fastest.
“I think the first Blackwell model will come from xAI. And the reason for that is just according to Jensen, no one builds data centers faster than Elon.”
Baker argues reasoning saved AI by enabling progress during an 18-month gap when Blackwell delays would have halted everything.
“Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid twenty twenty four through essentially Gemini three. There would have been none. Everything would have stalled.”
Baker argues reasoning models saved AI by bridging an eighteen-month gap while Blackwell was delayed.
“Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid twenty twenty four through essentially Gemini three. There would have been none.”
Baker predicts xAI will release the first Blackwell-trained model in early 2026 because Elon builds fastest.
“One, we will see the first models trained on Blackwell in early twenty twenty six. I think the first Blackwell model will come from xAI.”
Baker explains Blackwell racks weigh 3,000 pounds and consume 130 kilowatts, equivalent to 130 American homes.
“The rack goes from weighing round numbers, a thousand pounds to 3,000 pounds. Goes from round numbers, 30 kilowatts, which is 30 American homes to 130 kilowatts, which is 130 American homes.”
Baker predicts Blackwell models will be amazing because pre-training scaling laws remain intact.
“We know that scaling laws for pre training are intact, And this means the Blackwell models are going to be amazing.”
Baker details Blackwell transition: racks triple in weight and quadruple in power from 30 to 130 kilowatts.
“Goes from round numbers, 30 kilowatts, which is 30 American homes to 130 kilowatts, which is 130 American homes.”
“And the reason for that is it was by far the most complex product transition we've ever gone through in technology. Going from hopper to Blackwell, first you go from air cooled to liquid cooled.”
Baker explains Blackwell's complexity created deployment challenges that reasoning models had to bridge.
“Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid twenty twenty four through essentially”
Baker argues reasoning models saved AI from an eighteen-month progress gap during Blackwell delays.
“Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid twenty twenty four through essentially Gemini three.”
Baker details Blackwell's complexity: racks tripled in weight and quadrupled in power consumption versus Hopper.
“Going from hopper to Blackwell, first you go from air cooled to liquid cooled. The rack goes from weighing round numbers, a thousand pounds to 3,000 pounds.”
Baker notes the startup is renting an identical B200 cluster seven months later at nearly double the price.
“They're renting the exact same cluster, exact same size cluster, essentially identical in every way, b two hundreds, no no differences.”
Baker reports a top startup rented several thousand Blackwells at mid-$2 per GPU hour recently.
“And they had rented a cluster of several thousand black wells, And we'll just call it, you know, somewhere in the mid $2 per GPU hour.”