Baker reports Larry Page has said internally he is willing to go bankrupt rather than lose the AI race.
“Larry Page has evidently said internally at Google many times, I am willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race.”
Baker claims tech founders believe creating AGI first is worth tens or hundreds of trillions.
“And if you create that first digital god, we can debate whether it's tens of trillions or hundreds of trillions in value, and we can debate whether or not that's ridiculous.”
Baker predicts GPT-7 or GPT-8 will cost $500 billion to train, ending commodity status of models.
“By the way, these models are commodities today, but I am suspicious once we get to scaling laws continue, GPT seven or eight literally cost $500,000,000,000 to trade.”
Baker says no one on earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre-training work, only that they do.
“They stated that unequivocally. And that's important because no one on planet earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre training work.”
Baker says no one on earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre-training work, it's an empirical observation.
“And that's important because no one on planet earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre training work. It's actually not a law.”
Baker predicts Blackwell models will be amazing because pre-training scaling laws remain intact.
“We know that scaling laws for pre training are intact, And this means the Blackwell models are going to be amazing.”