Baker notes that a three trillion dollar valuation for Anthropic appeared in the Financial Times, suggesting he predicted this figure earlier.
“$3 trillion for Anthropic in the FT. I feel like I’ve heard that somewhere else. Although public markets generally struggle to accurately value growth when it is this high.”
Baker explains that losing banks in IPO processes have financial incentive to leak numbers that embarrass the winning bank.
“ Losing that role costs a bank enormous fees and prestige, so the losers have an incentive to float numbers that make the winner look foolish. As Baker put it: ”
Baker suggests the two trillion dollar figure may actually be too low rather than inflated.
“ Here is the twist. The $2 trillion figure that set off the week's panic may not be a hype number at all. It may be a lowball. Baker's explanation starts with how IPO leaks actually work. The bank running an IPO is called the ”
Baker predicts Anthropic will price its IPO around two trillion dollars then trade upward to three to four trillion.
“ Baker said. His working prediction: price around $2 trillion, then let the stock trade upward to roughly $3 trillion, possibly toward $3–4 trillion. Polymarket traders, for what it's worth, were already pricing an 80 percent probability of an Anthropic IPO this year and 67 percent odds that the company holds the top model at year-end. The strategic reason this pricing matters extends far beyond one company. Sacks argues that Anthropic's quarterly disclosures will become the industry's single most important demand signal — the pace car for NVIDIA, TSMC, Micron, SK Hynix, and everyone else in the chain. ”
The Anthropic S-1 filing will challenge the assumptions of macro and value investors.
“The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications”
Baker predicts the Anthropic S-1 filing will challenge assumptions by macro and value investors who believe AI tokens are subsidized.
“The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized.”