Who is on this subjectordered by the date of their first quote here
2 of 6 lanes rest on fewer than 5 quotes and are marked thin. Offsets are days from the middle first-quote date, 14 Aug 2025 — a date, and nothing else. It is not a claim about who reached a view first.
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Brad Gerstner
5
2 Feb 2024 – 5 May 2026
-559 d
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Bill Gurley
17
21 Nov 2024 – 21 Jul 2026
-266 d
- Dylan Patel 36 14 Aug 2025 – 25 Aug 2026 +0 d
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Gavin Baker
12
20 May 2026 – 4 Aug 2026
+279 d
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Howard Marks
1
thin
26 May 2026 – 26 May 2026
+285 d
- David Sacks 3 thin 25 Aug 2026 – 25 Aug 2026 +376 d
The chronologysourced and dated, oldest first
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner predicts Anthropic models will match GPT-4 and 4.5 turbo quality in the near term.
“They're gonna have models which are every bit as good, you know, in the near term as chat GPT four and four point five turbo, etcetera.”
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“And and I playing around with credit card data, I think OpenAI is about 2,000,000,000, Anthropix about a 100,000,000, and Perplexity is at like 25,000,000. Yeah. Just I'm guessing”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley argues OpenAI and Anthropic expected continued scaling twelve months ago, not current limits.
“Like, because they were promoting a thesis that it was just gonna keep going up”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley praises Anthropic's decision to open source their MCP data connection tool with GitHub and Slack integrations.
“They released several integrations already in the initial pack, with good GitHub and Slack and a few others so that you can start having your agents interact with these things.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Anthropic and investor Eric Schmidt have been pushing for more AI oversight and regulation.
“based on what I've heard and seen and read and listened to on podcast, Anthropic and their investors like Eric Schmidt have been some of the people that have been encouraging, you know, more and more AI oversight and AI regulation”
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Bill Gurley
Patel says Amazon and Anthropic building 400,000 chip Trainium supercomputer proves they believe scaling continues.
“And and because of this, right, Amazon and Anthropic have decided to, you know, make a 400,000 Trainium server supercomputer. Right? 400,000 chips. Right? Going back to the whole scaling law is dead.”
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Bill Gurley
Patel reveals Amazon and Anthropic are building a 400,000 Trainium chip supercomputer as evidence scaling continues.
“Amazon and Anthropic have decided to, you know, make a 400,000 Trainium server supercomputer. Right? 400,000 chips. Right? Going back to the whole scaling law is dead.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner says Anthropic raising $5B at $170B valuation on $5B revenue, unprecedented venture scale.
“I think that Iconic is going to lead a $5,000,000,000 round into Anthropic at $170,000,000,000 In the case of Anthropic, it's, you know, 170,000,000,000 on rumored $5,000,000,000 in revenue.”
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“So this is something that I've found very interesting is that we've been trying to build a lot of alternative data sources for token usage, who's using tokens, what models, where, etcetera, why, and it's very clear that people aren't actually using the reasoning models that much in API. Anthropic has eclipsed OpenAI and API revenue,”
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Dylan Patel
Patel claims Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI in API revenue, primarily from Claude 4 non-reasoning mode for code use cases.
“Anthropic has eclipsed OpenAI and API revenue, and their API revenue is primarily not thinking. It's Cloud four, but it's not in the thinking mode, code being the biggest use case that's skyrocketing.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel questions xAI's valuation exceeding Anthropic's despite no leading model, crediting only their fast Colossus infrastructure build.
“What has xAI actually done to deserve their prior funding rounds? They haven't released a leading edge model, and yet their evaluation's higher than Anthropic today.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel questions xAI's valuation exceeding Anthropic's despite lacking a leading model, crediting infrastructure execution over product.
“They haven't released a leading edge model, and yet their evaluation's higher than Anthropic today. At least Anthropic's racing, It's Elon, A, and B, they've tackled a problem creatively”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says OpenAI and Anthropic are receiving 30% of all GPU chips being produced this year.
“30% of the chips are going to them, just those two companies. But that's actually like, okay, well, 70% of the stuff, who's making off well, one third of it is ads, whether it be ByteDance or Meta or many of the other people who are doing ads.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts Anthropic's revenue growth will match OpenAI's by 2027 based on current trajectory.
“Their revenue growth rate right now implies that they would be OpenAI sometime in 2027, which is a really, really big deal in terms of revenue.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel describes Anthropic as cult-like with more unified AGI vision and mission focus than OpenAI.
“They are a bit of a cult. Right? They've they believe in the mission much more than any other lab. Not that OpenAI people aren't cultists as well.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel explains Anthropic's strategy prioritizes solving software engineering and computer use to accelerate AGI development recursively.
“First, we have to solve software engineering, and then we can use that to build all the other pieces. Right? First, we have to solve computer use.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel notes Anthropic's seven cofounders have equal equity and left OpenAI with clear unified mission focus.
“Anthropic, you know, sort of has you know, they had seven cofounders all with, like, equal equity. And these these cofounders were, like, very focused on exactly this mission.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel contrasts Anthropic's multiple technical cofounders with OpenAI where Sam Altman is not technical.
“They've got cofounders who are extremely technical, whereas OpenAI, right, you know, they they they don't have necessarily like, Sam's not super technical. You know, the obvious Greg Greg is a cofounder, he's super technical.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts AWS revenue growth will reaccelerate after consistent deceleration due to Anthropic and new data centers.
“AWS has been decelerating revenue. Year on year revenue has been falling consistently. And and our big call is that it's actually going to start reaccelerating.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner predicts Anthropic and OpenAI will go public within twelve to eighteen months.
“Over the course of the next twelve to eighteen months, both Anthropic and OpenAI will come public would be my guess.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Anthropic's $300 billion revenue target for end of decade is actually too conservative.
“when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have $300,000,000,000 of revenue by the end of the decade. And it's like, actually, I think that number's too low.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel states Anthropic now adds $23 billion revenue monthly versus few hundred million earlier.
“Anthropics, you know, adding $23,000,000,000 of revenue a month now Mhmm. Versus they were just adding a few 100,000,000 of revenue a month earlier. So clearly, we're in the take off period.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel calculates Anthropic added $1.5 billion in compute infrastructure in one month to serve new revenue growth.
“If Anthropic added 2,500,000,000 of revenue, and their gross margin is 40%, they added like $1,500,000,000 of compute in one month. Mhmm. Right?”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports $19 billion Anthropic revenue is driven by code spend, implying industry-wide $20 billion expenditure.
“You look at like quad code spend, right, it's freaking nuts. Right? 19,000,000,000 of revenue for Anthropic now. All of that is, you know, at some multiple is code.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel criticizes Dario's response to hypothetical nuclear scenario as inadequate for government AI policy discussions.
“If a nuclear missile's heading from China to America and we can use AI to stop it, but it requires surveillance and autonomous weapons, what do we do?”
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Dylan Patel
Patel criticizes Dario Amodei's response to a hypothetical nuclear defense scenario as the dumbest possible answer.
“And Dario was like, well, you can call us. I'm sure we can figure something out. Like, this is just the dumbest response you could ever come up with.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel predicts Anthropic revenue will grow from $19B to $60B by year end amid majority-negative AI sentiment.
“The sentiment is already more than half Americans have a negative view of AI. As we fast forward to the end of this year, as Anthropix revenue goes from 19,000,000,000 to maybe 60, and OpenAI is similar, if not higher, the amount of jobs that get supplemented, the amount of change that happens in society,”
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Dylan Patel
Patel estimates Anthropic needs to reach well above five gigawatts of compute capacity by year-end to support revenue growth.
“Anthropic needs to get to well above five gigawatts by the end of this year, and it's gonna be really tough for them to get there, but it's possible.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel cites Anthropic adding $67 billion ARR per month as evidence of expanding AI revenue beyond hyperscalers.
“You're starting to see it with Anthropix revenue adding $67,000,000,000 of ARR a month, but there's so many more firms coming online with revenue streaming in,”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley claims Anthropic has lobbied as much early in its life as FTX did, with people in every state.
“Anthropic's lobbying the only company that has lobbied as much as Anthropic early in its life was was FTX and SBF. Like, they he also lobbied heavily.”
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Brad Gerstner
Gerstner cites hyperscaler revenue growth: Amazon 28%, Azure 39%, Google 63%, and Anthropic at historic rates.
“28% revenue growth out of Amazon at tremendous scale or 39% for Azure, 63% for Google, extraordinary. And of course, Anthropic is adding revenues at rates we've never seen before.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel argues Anthropic trapped itself in an innovator's dilemma by focusing on CLI instead of app experience.
“But the CLI experience is not the end all be all of agent orchestration and therefore they've really cooked themselves into sort of like an innovator's dilemma where they keep making the CLI better.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel distinguishes OpenAI hiding reasoning chains from Anthropic showing them in code generation models.
“In the case of OpenAI, they don't show you the whole reasoning chain. In the case of Anthropic, they do.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley criticizes Dario for being both top cheerleader and doomer while raising billions and cashing out employee shares.
“Dario, the guy leading a company that's raising billions of dollars and cashing out billions in secondary to his employees is simultaneously the top cheerleader and the top doomer.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says Anthropic added $11B ARR, comparing it to the entire SaaS revolution's $5-10T value creation.
“Anthropic, they added $11,000,000,000 of AR. And what is astonishing to me about this is that the SaaS and cloud revolution it created, we'll call it between 5 and $10,000,000,000,000 of value.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says Anthropic added $11B ARR in one month, matching what Palantir, Snowflake, and Databricks built in ten years combined.
“And these three companies employ thousands of people, tens of thousands collectively. They've all spent ten years building their businesses and Anthropic added their combined businesses in one month.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says Anthropic adding $11B ARR in one month is unprecedented in capitalism's history.
“Anthropic added their combined businesses in one month. Nothing like that has ever happened in the history of capitalism.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker estimates Anthropic would be doing $100-150B ARR if not compute-constrained, versus current $50B.
“And I think maybe a true statement is that Infantropic could just wave a magic wand and get all the compute they wanted. They'd probably be doing well north of $100,000,000,000 today, maybe 150.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker estimates Anthropic could be doing $100-200 billion in revenue if unconstrained by compute availability.
“So I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker estimates Anthropic would do $100-200 billion ARR unconstrained by compute, valuing it at 5x URR.
“I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker estimates Anthropic could do $100-200B in unconstrained revenue if compute weren't limited.
“So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained. I'm gonna make up a new number. URR, unconstrained revenue.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker believes Anthropic is likely already generating cash or will start this year.
“I think Anthropic probably starts generating cash this year if they are not already generating cash, which I think is probably the case.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says understanding frontier AI now requires enterprise usage-based plans, not $250 monthly subscriptions which are rate-limited.
“To understand what Frontier AI is capable of today, even for a non coding use case, need to have Cloud Code or Codex five point Codex.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker predicts OpenAI and Anthropic will exceed $200B ARR this year due to shift to usage-based pricing.
“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over $200,000,000,000 in ARR this year.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker predicts OpenAI and Anthropic will exceed $200B ARR this year due to usage-based pricing shift.
“I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over $200,000,000,000 in ARR this year.”
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Howard Marks
Marks argues AI innovation speed with Claude and coding models is faster than any previous technology.
“I think innovation, I think if you look at the Claude and all the coding models and the way they've progressed and the way and the way Anthropix revenues have progressed, I think you have to say that this is faster than anything we've ever seen before.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Anthropic uniquely both leads AI development and is the most negative public commentator on AI risks.
“I have to tell you that Anthropic is a mystery to me. I've never ever seen a company that is both leading their field and the most negatively outspoken commenter on what they do.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Anthropic uniquely leads AI while being the most negatively outspoken about their own field.
“I've never ever seen a company that is both leading their field and the most negatively outspoken commenter on what they do. I've just never seen it.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley cites Dario envisioning AI systems deciding resource allocation to humans based on what AIs think makes sense to reward.
“And then he says, it could be a capitalist economy of AI systems, which then give out resources to humans based on some secondary economy of what the AI systems think makes sense to reward in humans.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley quotes Dario envisioning AI systems deciding resource allocation to humans in a secondary economy based on AI judgment.
“he says, it could be a capitalist economy of AI systems, which then give out resources to humans based on some secondary economy of what the AI systems think makes sense to reward in humans.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Anthropic is midwifing a deity, and he's uncertain which theory is scarier: regulatory capture or Doctor Frankenstein.
“I think they're midwifing a deity gear. And and I don't know which one I'm more afraid of, the regulatory capture or the second theory I call the Doctor.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Anthropic is midwifing a deity and he fears that more than regulatory capture.
“I think they're midwifing a deity gear. And and I don't know which one I'm more afraid of, the regulatory capture or the second theory I call the Doctor. Frankenstein theory.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley critiques circular deals where cloud providers fund AI companies to spend on their own services.
“Imagine you're a cloud service provider and you notice that this company, Anthropic, wants to develop this model. It's gonna cost maybe $5,000,000,000, but they don't have that money.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel states Anthropic is profitable excluding stock compensation in Q2 with 80% margins on Opus tokens.
“Anthropic in Q2 is profitable, their net income profitable, excluding stock based compensation. And I think by Q3 they may even be profitable, including stock based compensation.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports Anthropic is Q2 profitable excluding SBC, expects Q3 profitability including SBC with 80% margins on Opus tokens.
“And I think by Q3 they may even be profitable, including stock based compensation. That's how profitable they're getting, and their margins on an Opus token, at least Opus 4.8 token, is north of 80”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports Anthropic achieved over 80% margins on Opus tokens and expects full profitability including stock compensation by Q3.
“That's how profitable they're getting, and their margins on an Opus token, at least Opus 4.8 token, is north of 80 for the API price.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel argues OpenAI models are optimized for GPUs while Anthropic and Google models are optimized for TPUs due to co-design.
“And the way that Anthropic and Google's models are headed, it's actually a terrible decision potentially for them to train with GPUs.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports Anthropic achieved profitability and positive free cash flow in April and May 2025.
“Anthropic is free cash flow positive, and they are profitable in q two. Even in April. In April, they closed April's books. They were profitable.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reveals Anthropic turned first profit in Q2 and will hit billion-dollar operating profit in Q3 before IPO.
“So Anthropic turned their first gross profit in Q2 in June. And then in Q3, they will be turning a billion dollars of operating profit, slightly over.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Anthropic will turn over a billion dollars of operating profit in Q3 2025.
“Anthropic turned their first gross profit in Q2 in June. And then in Q3, they will be turning a billion dollars of operating profit, slightly over.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Anthropic's billion-dollar operating profit figures will appear in their IPO.
“And so this is this is their financials that they're going to be putting out in their IPO.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley says Anthropic's early lobbying efforts are comparable only to FTX and SBF, with people in every state.
“There's Anthropic's lobbying the only company that has lobbied as much as Anthropic early in its life was was FTX and SBF.”
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Bill Gurley
Gurley compares Anthropic's early lobbying intensity to FTX, noting ground presence in every state.
“Anthropic's lobbying the only company that has lobbied as much as Anthropic early in its life was was FTX and SBF.”
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“Like, they he also lobbied heavily, but they have people on the ground in every state. They're the ones pushing for state by state regulation.”
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Gavin Baker
Baker says incredible Anthropic results made him comfortable with Blackwell air pocket risk.
“I think one reason to the podcast two months ago, I got comfortable with that risk was just that you were seeing such incredible things out of anthropic.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports Anthropic delayed Mythos release for months after February completion.
“Anthropic took months to release Mythos. Right? They they said it was done in February. They did not release it until like what?”
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Dylan Patel
Patel suggests labs may still use unreleased models internally despite not releasing them publicly for safety reasons.
“have they prevented themselves from using Meetos two internally to make Meetos three better? Or have they prevented themselves from using Astra to make Astra plus one better?”
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Dylan Patel
Patel argues labs haven't prevented internal use of unreleased models, maintaining gap between internal and public capabilities.
“So I think that's the you've got the public and and and, you know, if anything, like, the gap between Mythos and public models is still there.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports Anthropic employee stopped ADHD medication after getting Mithos, becoming more effective managing multiple agents.
“the moment Mithos was good, and available internally Yeah. I I I she told me that she stopped taking her ADHD medicine. Oh, come on. And that made her a better employee.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel says Anthropic generates $50 million per megawatt revenue, enabling 5x return on inference spending.
“In the case of Anthropic, the the revenue has gone as high as $50,000,000 per megawatt.”
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Dylan Patel
Patel reports Anthropic now generates up to $50 million per megawatt, a 5x return on compute costs.
“And and what that now enables them to do is, hey, if I spend $10 on inference capacity, actually generate $50 of revenue,”
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David Sacks
Sacks claims Dario's regulatory vision would have prevented Anthropic from achieving a successful IPO.
“Because I think if he had if he had realized his dream of this highly regulated AI apparatus, I don't think that company would be set up for a hugely successful IPO.”
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David Sacks
Sacks says Anthropic's premium pricing depends entirely on maintaining a six-month lead over open models.
“Because their whole right to charge this massive premium for tokens is because they're six months ahead of those open models.”
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David Sacks
Sacks describes Anthropic and OpenAI as trapped on a hamster wheel, needing constant leadership to justify premium pricing.
“A decent subset of the market is willing to pay a premium for true frontier intelligence, but Anthropic and OpenAI are on that hamster wheel.”
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Where they overlapsame programme, same subject
- All-In Podcast also carries Bill Gurley and David Sacks on this subject, at different times.
- BG2 Pod also carries Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on this subject, at different times.
- CNBC Television also carries Brad Gerstner and Dylan Patel on this subject, at different times.