Palihapitiya argues progressive Democrats fundamentally hate Silicon Valley and won't let tech companies they don't control thrive.
“But I think that if they think that they have the Democrats, that's fleeting as well because I think progressive Democrats fundamentally just hate Silicon Valley and technology, and so there's no way they're gonna let some god king over here that they don't control either.”
Palihapitiya says OpenAI and Anthropic must IPO immediately as no other companies are as important.
“These two companies need to get out as quickly as possible. And the reason is every single company that comes after it, all those companies that you just named, Jason, are not nearly as important and do not need the money nearly as badly as these guys do.”
Palihapitiya argues GPT-2's 2019 doomsday rollout by Dario was theater that ended as a nothing burger
“In February 2019, when Dario was still at OpenAI, they did the same thing with GPT two. That was a 1,500,000,000 parameter model, which sounds like a total fart in the wind in 2026.”
Palihapitiya characterizes Dario's worldview as distrusting all actors except those who reason like him under his designed rules.
“The list of trustworthy ones is conspicuously short, and it has a suspicious tendency to resolve towards people who reason the way I do operating under the rules I help design.”
“And the good news is we were able to hold the line in some of these key places, but just barely.”
Palihapitiya predicts Anthropic will face difficulties because they lost trust by disrupting their customers.
“The difficulty that Anthropic is going to face is that I think what Saks said is true, that they have lost this fundamental trust about being able to stay within their sandbox.”
Palihapitiya compares AI token pricing: Anthropic charges $26-56 per million tokens while OpenAI charges $26.
“You can buy that barrel for $26 Mhmm. From Anthropic's really good model. You can buy from OpenAI for $26. Anthropic's latest model cost you $56.”
Palihapitiya accuses Anthropic of shipping tokenmax with Opus 5, optimized for ARR instead of performance
“They shipped tokenmax. Like softmax but optimized for ARR… https://t.co/smD0eXM637”
Palihapitiya accuses Anthropic of shipping tokenmax with Opus 5, optimized for ARR instead of performance
“They shipped tokenmax. Like softmax but optimized for ARR… https://t.co/smD0eXM637”
Palihapitiya agrees OpenAI and Anthropic cannibalizing customers is natural as models commoditize
“@itsolelehmann I agree and it’s the natural resting place as the models themselves get commoditized.”
“As of today, let’s assume 99% of all code written on the internet is still human written and 1% is agentic. That means 99% of code is sloppy and error ridden. Humans make errors that agents don’t. As agentic code replaces human code, both the error rates and security https://t.co/mZ2Aa0d1ZS”
Palihapitiya heard SALP's Anthropic position went unsold and questions why no one reports on valuation concerns
“I heard second hand (so ymmv) that SALP’s Anthropic position was marketed but went unsold. Is this true? Why, if accurate, is no one reporting why nobody bought the private Anthropic portion SALP tried to sell? What does smart, public money think of valuation? Is the below https://t.co/TxfXErosR7”
Palihapitiya heard SALP's Anthropic position went unsold and questions why no one reports on valuation concerns
“I heard second hand (so ymmv) that SALP’s Anthropic position was marketed but went unsold. Is this true? Why, if accurate, is no one reporting why nobody bought the private Anthropic portion SALP tried to sell? What does smart, public money think of valuation? Is the below https://t.co/TxfXErosR7”
Palihapitiya claims Anthropic's funding mechanics and FUD drove Dario's position on open source more than belief
“In many ways, Anthropic’s funding mechanics - claims made, FUD, post money valuations have dictated Dario’s position more than anything else. Even if he really believed this. https://t.co/tbBmvnCO0x”
Palihapitiya claims Anthropic's funding mechanics and FUD drove Dario's position on open source more than belief
“In many ways, Anthropic’s funding mechanics - claims made, FUD, post money valuations have dictated Dario’s position more than anything else. Even if he really believed this. https://t.co/tbBmvnCO0x”
Palihapitiya confirms Claude wrapped in Software Factory is 1.4x cheaper and 1.5x faster, open models 16.4x cheaper
“This is accurate. That said, we are currently working through a rigorous experiment testing closed and open models with and without Software Factory. Early data is super fascinating and backs up the experiment below. https://t.co/vqWV7ISaeX”
Palihapitiya says trillion-dollar question whether OpenAI-Anthropic duopoly holds resolves by end of 2026
“The resolution of this trillion dollar bet will happen before EOY 2026. Stakes are enormous on the outcome. Path1: Markets price the Ant IPO and public valuation answers this question. Path2: Harness + Open Model math becomes more precise and well known. It shows material https://t.co/2SgB4KY43S”
Palihapitiya says trillion-dollar question whether OpenAI-Anthropic duopoly holds resolves by end of 2026
“The resolution of this trillion dollar bet will happen before EOY 2026. Stakes are enormous on the outcome. Path1: Markets price the Ant IPO and public valuation answers this question. Path2: Harness + Open Model math becomes more precise and well known. It shows material https://t.co/2SgB4KY43S”
Palihapitiya says trillion-dollar question whether OpenAI-Anthropic duopoly holds resolves by end of 2026
“The resolution of this trillion dollar bet will happen before EOY 2026. Stakes are enormous on the outcome. Path1: Markets price the Ant IPO and public valuation answers this question. Path2: Harness + Open Model math becomes more precise and well known. It shows material https://t.co/2SgB4KY43S”
Palihapitiya lists questions for Anthropic and OpenAI S-1s on token efficiency and steady state usage
“I’m very excited to see the Ant and OAI S-1s. Here are some of the questions I am very interested in: 1. What is the best guess of the steady state number of tokens to accomplish a fixed benchmark task that actually represents real work in a company. To understand what is https://t.co/xesW9MGG3c”
Palihapitiya lists questions for Anthropic and OpenAI S-1s on token efficiency and steady state usage
“I’m very excited to see the Ant and OAI S-1s. Here are some of the questions I am very interested in: 1. What is the best guess of the steady state number of tokens to accomplish a fixed benchmark task that actually represents real work in a company. To understand what is https://t.co/xesW9MGG3c”
Palihapitiya highlights Anthropic spending millions via Politico to warn about technology it builds
“Here is where the money you pay Anthropic is going. Hope you agree!! via Politico: “ANTHROPIC’S ANTI-AI BLITZ: The political war over AI is spilling deeper into the midterms — with one of the industry’s biggest players spending millions to warn voters about the technology it”
Palihapitiya highlights Anthropic spending millions via Politico to warn about technology it builds
“Here is where the money you pay Anthropic is going. Hope you agree!! via Politico: “ANTHROPIC’S ANTI-AI BLITZ: The political war over AI is spilling deeper into the midterms — with one of the industry’s biggest players spending millions to warn voters about the technology it”
Palihapitiya questions whether recurring in ARR actually means recurring for Anthropic
“@zerohedge Because the word “recurring” in ARR may not actually mean recurring?”
Palihapitiya questions whether recurring in ARR actually means recurring for Anthropic
“@zerohedge Because the word “recurring” in ARR may not actually mean recurring?”
Palihapitiya notes Anthropic's Fable model only 11% of revenue, sees long J-curve to positive ROI
“Interesting development. The latest models are also the most expensive. One can see a long J curve building, then, to get to positive ROI for these models if folks don’t want to pay for the latest/greatest. On top of that, if most enterprises are realizing that previous https://t.co/ANKAC2zGm1”
Palihapitiya notes Anthropic's Fable model only 11% of revenue, sees long J-curve to positive ROI
“Interesting development. The latest models are also the most expensive. One can see a long J curve building, then, to get to positive ROI for these models if folks don’t want to pay for the latest/greatest. On top of that, if most enterprises are realizing that previous https://t.co/ANKAC2zGm1”