Selected points from existing editorial summaries and source excerpts. This covers the material on this page.
1
Palihapitiya argues a 25 basis point cut is insufficient for a $32 trillion economy hampered by faulty data. [1]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2025-09-07
“So a 25 basis point cut to a $32,000,000,000,000 economy is not a strategy. And I think that the reason they don't know what to do exactly is because they have extremely faulty data.”
Palihapitiya explains OpenAI's Korea deals secure forward HBM memory capacity that Altman can allocate for leverage and equity participation. [3]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2025-10-10
“He's buying forward capacity on HBM because now he can allocate that share. So when I saw that deal and I saw that equity, it reminded me of this Rothschild quote.”
FROM THE RECORD · 22 matching entries · 2025-09-07 to 2026-09-04
What does the record say about politics?
Selected points from existing editorial summaries and source excerpts. This covers the material on this page.
1
Palihapitiya argues debt-to-GDP ratios don't matter if all major economies rise together since 1700 to potentially 300 percent. [1]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-02-13
“So if the entire world moves in unison like this, there is an argument to be made, which is that you could end up at 300, two fifty, 200% of debt to GDP.”
FROM THE RECORD · 16 matching entries · 2025-10-10 to 2026-07-31
What does the record say about energy?
Selected points from existing editorial summaries and source excerpts. This covers the material on this page.
1
Palihapitiya calls for a $300-500 billion tax equity fund to eliminate electricity costs for 50-100 million households. [1]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-01-17
“I think the president should try to create a $3.04, $500,000,000,000 tax equity fund and help eliminate the electricity costs of 50 to a 100,000,000 American households.”
Palihapitiya warns the US will face a 1.7 terawatt hour electricity deficit by 2050, equivalent to six times California's consumption. [3]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-07-31
“We will be 1.7 terawatt hours short by 2050, which is when you calculate it as energy, it is six x of California's entire energy consumption. Six California's short of energy.”
Palihapitiya reports Fortune 20 company spent $200M on AI tokens seeking $1B savings but got minimal results. [2]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-05-29
“CEO asked for a billion in AI generated OpEx savings at the beginning of the year. So we're six months in. The team has spent $200,000,000 on tokens and with minimal results.”
FROM THE RECORD · 8 matching entries · 2025-09-07 to 2026-06-26
What does the record say about policy?
Selected points from existing editorial summaries and source excerpts. This covers the material on this page.
1
Palihapitiya calls for a $300-500 billion tax equity fund to eliminate electricity costs for 50-100 million households. [1]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-01-17
“I think the president should try to create a $3.04, $500,000,000,000 tax equity fund and help eliminate the electricity costs of 50 to a 100,000,000 American households.”
Palihapitiya says Maine banned all data center buildings, showing compute constraints driving unusual market moves. [2]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-04-17
“So I think the reason why Allbirds went crazy is a very, very small canary in a very important coal mine, which is we are absolutely compute constrained.”
Palihapitiya explains H-1B abuse where large companies apply for 300,000 visas at once, overwhelming smaller applicants. [3]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2025-11-14
“What he described is that when the application window opens for what is a very small number of h one b's, a company that has, you know, call it 300,000 employees abroad will apply on behalf of all 300,000 because they're all roughly the same kind of employee. Whoever gets it gets to come over.”
Palihapitiya characterizes Dario's worldview as distrusting all actors except those who reason like him under his designed rules. [2]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-06-19
“The list of trustworthy ones is conspicuously short, and it has a suspicious tendency to resolve towards people who reason the way I do operating under the rules I help design.”
Palihapitiya predicts Anthropic will face difficulties because they lost trust by disrupting their customers. [3]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-07-03
“The difficulty that Anthropic is going to face is that I think what Saks said is true, that they have lost this fundamental trust about being able to stay within their sandbox.”
FROM THE RECORD · 7 matching entries · 2025-11-14 to 2026-07-31
What does the record say about finance?
Selected points from existing editorial summaries and source excerpts. This covers the material on this page.
1
Palihapitiya predicts hyperscalers will become heavily leveraged industrial businesses within five years due to infrastructure spending. [1]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2026-05-01
“They'll have all kinds of different vehicles and term loans and revolvers and all of this stuff. And so they're gonna look like this big bulky industrial business in five years.”
Palihapitiya argues short sellers create chaos and innuendo under free speech guise rather than uncovering real malfeasance. [3]
Read the supporting quotation · All-In Podcast · 2025-11-14
“There is supposed to be a check on financial malfeasance, but it's not that. When you look at these short selling firms, for every one of them that actually uncovers malfeasance, what it really is is them creating chaos and innuendo under the guise of their right to free speech.”
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Replying to Craig Shapiro
@chamath You think SpaceX should trade inside USTs? Is that because you think no US govt regime will ever tax this name/space appropriately enough in the future despite the need for higher corporate tax revenues to help pay bloated expenses where certainly will grow if SpaceX and others
@ces921 I think there are already a handful of IGs that consistently trade inside of USTs. I do believe SpaceX should be added to that list and believe in its long term business. It’s a tremendous business.
SpaceX $SPCX is finalizing a $40 billion debt raise at sharply higher borrowing costs than its previous financing, according to Semafor.
The lowest-rated portion is expected to carry an interest rate of around 8.3%, while a safer portion backed by AI chips could price near https://t.co/zvjbfKQhit
This SpaceX paper is money good and better than most sovereign debt. Also means that everyone else except IG-grade hypers will price at 10-12% in 2027. https://t.co/Hcf8WS2oWP
Founders send me pitches every day. Here’s a better way: come to our hackathon!
EVOLVE: 20 hours, overnight at 8090 in Redwood City, Nov 13–14.
Build AI agents and tools that build software. The winning team, beyond recognition and a cool trophy gets two 1:1s with me, to help
US households now hold 48.2% of their financial assets in stocks, the highest on record.
At the peak of the dot-com bubble, it was 38.7%. https://t.co/10WRQ3NWFk
In 2025, we published a bold proposal to use fusion reactors for gold production.
And now we’ve done it: Mercury transmuted into stable gold, using fusion neutrons, at 10x the record set by CERN in 2025.
We’ve reduced alchemy to a series of difficult but tractable engineering https://t.co/svxYUgs3F0
It’s all about clips.
I see it at Beast Industries where I’m on the board. I see it with All In where I am on the show.
I think people don’t understand that content preferences will evolve around this time constraint.
It’s already come for movies. It will come for sports https://t.co/l2AoTY4IWJ
SCOOP: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents inside customer accounts, including some attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, sources told Axios.
The findings have alarmed banking executives, who are racing to
The first thing to change will be terms of service and blocking these agents. Not because the value is low but because the risk is high. Banks will chose self preservation and risk mitigation.
Then we will need to find a security and governance architecture that will get https://t.co/uRCgzkItwO
In Apollo spark today, "Ramp data show that 80% of the top 1% of AI spenders are VC-backed, compared with only 13% of the median spender, suggesting that the circularity seen among AI hyperscalers and model providers also extends to token spending, as the startups buying the most https://t.co/Ihat3VV2cw https://t.co/LXA7d5L83N
BREAKING: Citadel founder Ken Griffin says AI is "almost certainly" a bubble, noting that companies are struggling to turn AI spending into productivity gains.
However, Griffin says he is bullish on AI's long-term potential. https://t.co/n6n4P8wAyE
1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending.
Of that 90%, 80% of this spend are from unprofitable VC backed companies.
So, roughly, $0.70-75 of every dollar of AI spending right now comes from AI companies spending VC investment dollars.
As a result, the revenue quality in https://t.co/NB0Y7KRQ1m
.@chamath on the pricing shift he thinks will make the AI market explode:
“When Google invented and scaled AdWords and AdSense, the market exploded… because we went from buying 1,000 ads to just getting an outcome. Right now we buy a million tokens. We will eventually move to https://t.co/QQh5koXO9m
This tracks. I watch something on YouTube every day. Netflix is a dormant subscription for me.
YouTube has very low costs of content creation. Netflix has $14B of debt that has financed their content library.
Another lesson in the halls of mismatching assets and liabilities? https://t.co/b0KMkkVeuI
Virginia’s commercial power consumption grew ~7x faster than the national average from 2015-2025, largely driven by data centers. https://t.co/JLL32ZWL9Q
BREAKING: The number of restaurants in New York dropped ~2,000 YoY in Q1 2026, posting its largest YoY decline in at least 36 years.
This surpasses even the worst contraction recorded in any quarter during the 2020 pandemic.
The number of eating and drinking places in New York https://t.co/BlQL9G2NtV
POD UP! 🚨
Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz) fills in for @friedberg!
-- CoreWeave's Tanks After Debt Selloff: Did the AI Trade Just Crack? $CRWV
-- AI Deflation and the Future of Software
-- Anthropic IPO: Red Flags, Valuation, How Much to Raise?
-- Psyop Corner with Sacks
-- https://t.co/Nu3deyM9Jl
POD UP! 🚨
Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz) fills in for @friedberg!
-- CoreWeave's Tanks After Debt Selloff: Did the AI Trade Just Crack? $CRWV
-- AI Deflation and the Future of Software
-- Anthropic IPO: Red Flags, Valuation, How Much to Raise?
-- Psyop Corner with Sacks
-- https://t.co/Nu3deyM9Jl
I suspect 70-80% of revenues at AI companies are from other AI companies who’ve raised money from the Venture industry.
This is not a circular revenue problem but it is a revenue quality problem.
We’ve seen this before in the SaaS cycle in the early/mid 2010s. https://t.co/rlHFl57gYF
VC investors have enabled the AI industry to bastardize revenue reporting.
In the 2010s, SaaS companies popularized reporting the metric of Annual Run Rate because it was a reliable measure of long term, contractual revenues into the future. The key is that the revenues are https://t.co/UN9hgrkI2W
@elonmusk @zerohedge The future is a merchant product that makes one’s inventory available via MCP / headlessly and accepts agent payments.
I suspect shipping can be done thru fedex/ups/usps direct from merchant at similar cost when you strip out the Amazon take rate (ie merchant can spend more if
BREAKING: Anthropic is now down over 10% in the last month, wiping more than $200 billion from its implied valuation.
Anthropic’s pre-IPO perpetual has fallen below $2 trillion on Liquid as institutional investors get a closer look at the company’s financials. https://t.co/w1AkqmZjoo https://t.co/xQpU55lOSp
As I stated on the pod, it’s more critical for Ant to get public and get the $200B they need than to optimize for valuation.
Find the market clearing price and go public asap.
My guess, a few weeks ago, was that this price was +/- $1T. I’m still of this mindset and haven’t https://t.co/VFL7U8yuZk
Before an AI agent touches a legacy system, we map what that system can do.
That map is a catalog of actions. Each one is linked to when it applies and which permissions govern it, built from three sources: the old code, the vendor systems you rent, and the experts who have run https://t.co/NNvRm0Otj2
I stand by these statements:
“Everybody's going to have to get into the land power shell game and get your own electricity, and everybody's going to have to solve this.
I actually think every company should probably break the seal and understand the energy shortage and think https://t.co/ySnKyi74nw
.@VP is calling on America’s best engineers to help solve some of our country’s toughest challenges. Through @USTechForce and @WHFraudTF, we’re recruiting technical talent to strengthen public service, fight fraud, and protect taxpayer dollars.
Answer the call. Apply for Tech https://t.co/hcdMPNIJAd
Thrilled to announce @DealBook Summit lineup on Nov 18. Please join us!
JD Vance, v.p. of the United States
Mark Carney, prime minister of Canada
Sam Altman, OpenAI
Hailey Bieber, Rhode
Greg Brockman, OpenAI
Shayne Coplan, Polymarket
David Ellison, Skydance
Adena Friedman,
Model Benchmarks Are Worthless
How can a model score 24% and 59% on the same 113 coding tasks?
It happens when you vary the harness that wraps it.
I’ve increasingly ignored most of the recent model leaderboard results. Partly from exhaustion and partly because improvements https://t.co/AFHxBHx7B3
Today we are announcing our biggest bet yet on our own silicon.
Starting next calendar year, we will scale our Maia family to multi-gigawatt deployments, making it the primary inference system for our own product and services.
And we’re introducing Maia 300, which delivers 40% https://t.co/L490XvOys9
You should expect the silicon chip companies to move up the stack as the application companies move down the stack.
In AI, it is increasingly true that everyone competes with everyone. Everyone will soon offer their own LPS, silicon, cloud and applications.
The question is https://t.co/6jO8c5spaR
In March 2026, Anthropic accounted for 69.5% of business AI token spend on Ramp, more than ~2x OpenAI's share.
The gap has since narrowed, with Anthropic at 51.0% and OpenAI at 44.5%. https://t.co/lP373mD4no
These are some very important observations from Satya.
As models and harnesses commoditize, intent, verification and evidence will gate how quickly SI permeates enterprises and businesses.
Importantly, you need to implement systems that separate who does the work from those https://t.co/fdqt2MdnOp
Strong debut - I had not heard of her until a few days ago.
Her debate vs Letitia James was impressive. She mopped the floor with her. https://t.co/fItovPCAHr
Chamath says IP and software were "effectively rendered worthless" this week, after people decompiled Adobe's core products and published open-source versions, as every service goes headless
"The more important point I want to make though, is I sent this to Nick, there's been a https://t.co/tmbslkU3VV https://t.co/r77MIBlJbY
The All-In Podcast is LIVE! 🚨
-- The birth of a new religion?: Claude, the Pope, and the alignment fight
-- OpenAI's 700+ papers, math community freakout
-- France riots as bond vigilantes put the West on notice
-- Grok Bot goes headless, OpenAI launches Dots
(0:00) Bestie https://t.co/BT9mgXyeVP
According to ARK, the cost per mile of a personally owned vehicle has remained at ~$1.10 for 90 years (adjusted for inflation).
By 2035, autonomous taxis could reduce that cost by 77%. https://t.co/Z66dxo3507
I was so disturbed by the damage of the wildfires in California that I helped get a new company off the ground to simplify wildfire resilience, layer by layer.
Please try Strata. It starts with a simple assessment and then a remediation plan to do everything you can to protect
The US grid plans to add 86 gigawatts this year. Here's where it's coming from:
- Solar: 43.4 GW
- Batteries: 24.3 GW
- Wind: 11.8 GW
- Gas: 6.3 GW
- New nuclear: 0 GW
The AI labs are planning for hundreds of gigawatts. Solar is the one source already produced at that scale, https://t.co/P4XoutIFjc https://t.co/F96FxIUUby
Solar and batteries are not only becoming the biggest energy sources, they are also becoming hugely lucrative markets.
We will see a consolidation in solar and batteries that will be similar to how Nat Gas consolidated in the late 2010s.
Many new big energy companies will be https://t.co/n06coZA417
In the last week of September, DeepSeek models processed more tokens on OpenRouter than OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and xAI models combined. https://t.co/ICyf29pCfF
What’s happening in the AI-powered reverse engineering and decompilation is absolutely insane. Pretty soon all software will be de facto open-source.
AI is coming for everything and everyone.
Join us for a live session on modernizing COBOL and Assembly systems with Aditya Bhatnagar & Zachary Gonzalez from our technical staff.
We'll cover how legacy modernization works across the public and commercial sectors, then walk through our business rules work on CMS's https://t.co/0SglRgxmuk
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella wrote that a company renting an AI model “essentially pays for intelligence twice”:
Once in money, and again in the proprietary knowledge it has to reveal to make the model useful.
This mechanism is called the learning loop: every prompt and
The hedging continues.
Everyone can clearly see the early vote data. Dems are behind in the early vote relative to 2022 and 2024 outside of a few exceptions like Virginia (where all the laid off gov workers live).
Rather than admit this, the media says "Democrats rethink their https://t.co/viZ641vcAe
What is happening to the Blue Wave? Will it turn out, instead, to be a Blue Spritz? What if it’s not Blue at all?
Maybe Independents and many Democrats are recoiling in realtime at the socialism, doomerism and radicalism agenda.
Next few weeks will be really telling. https://t.co/B4JbGEvECR
Slowing aging by just one year would add ~$400B per year to U.S. GDP.
Slowing it by five years would add $2T - more than twice the annual U.S. defense budget.
In 2024, the U.S. federal government spent roughly $2.6T on Social Security and Medicare (about 38% of total federal https://t.co/JcL44eZlMS
@chamath I see this is just the social capital vintages, You should keep posting your family office returns just for bragging rights even if you don't accept LPs
@badvalla40301 Virgin Galactic is in there as I did it from the funds. The rest are in permanent capital numbers that you can see in my annual letters. That said, the spacs are part of a much bigger portfolio…
The West is fighting three issues:
1. Socialism
2. Doomerism
3. Radicalism
More often than not, people are infected with all three at the same time.
The future of the West will be defined by how successful these ideologies are in influencing young people.
I stopped managing external capital about a decade ago so I could focus on compounding internal capital.
But the nature of Venture Capital is that VC funds take many years to be fully realized.
I’m at the tail end of that journey so am sharing the latest summary from Q2. I https://t.co/p6KzjjAaAU
At Vivoli, the oldest gelateria in Florence, founded in 1929, their Gran Crema Caffè isn’t just an affogato.
It’s gelato artistry: a cream-filled square gets drowned in espresso with perfect flair. After a viral post, they now serve ~350 a day. https://t.co/3QwesyHqfn
Current State of the Union of AI/SI: Most everyone is selling CPM. Cost per thousand tokens + markup.
Future State of the Union of AI/SI: Everyone will sell CPA. Accomplish the task, participate in the ROI.
In the transition from CPM to CPA, we will debunk much of the current
Chamath: 3 Things Every Company Needs in the Age of Super Intelligence
1) End-to-End Traceability
2) Policy-to-Risk Mapping
3) Auditable Evidence
@Chamath:
“There's really three things that you're going to need in an age of super intelligence so that boards are protected, https://t.co/sytDRUpSa9
POD UP! 🚨
-- Inside Trump’s Super Intelligence Summit
-- How the AI Safety Accord Happened
-- Data Center NatSec + Cybersecurity Arms Race
-- GDP Beats + Other Economic Data
-- Midterm Predictions
-- Media Coverage of Attempted Plane Hijacking
(0:00) Bestie intros! https://t.co/wm80PWIU6I
We'll be spending a lot more time trying to understand the outputs of language models. A few thoughts, tips & tricks:
Writing. Something I've had success with: Ask your LLM to explain something in ASD-STE100, it's a controlled language specification originally developed for https://t.co/uMFWTcBCsl
To CEOs, CFOs, CIOs and Directors:
Have you read the White House Accord on Super Intelligence? What will you do to safely deploy Super Intelligence within your Enterprise?
EY and 8090 are building a new solution - KYSI (Know Your Super Intelligence) designed to create a https://t.co/l9FVKKngLn
.@altcap on @POTUS's SI Summit: "@POTUS set the tone at the start of the meeting — making sure that this is about main street Americans."
"It was a real legendary move of statecraft." https://t.co/Vk8smBUGZK
This is DoorDash Air.
As a pilot, I can tell you that you wouldn’t build a plane and then ask if it can carry cargo. So we built @DoorDash Air from the ground up, designed around what 13 years of deliveries have taught us: what people order, how much it weighs, and how far it https://t.co/703MFqDvXP
Today, with over 100 industry partners, we introduced the NVIDIA Open Agent Safety Platform, bringing together OpenShell and Sentry.
Artificial intelligence is extraordinary technology that will advance discovery, productivity, security, health, and prosperity for generations to https://t.co/dReAxwpRUn
A timeless rule of competition: commoditize your complement.
Every product has complements. When a complement gets cheaper, demand for your product can rise. So companies often try to drive the price of key complements toward zero.
Open-weighting a model is basically this move
Thousands of letters and emails like this have arrived from kids and parents across America. 🙏
Each one reminds us that a small investment today can change a child’s life.
$250 is only the beginning.
The bigger idea is an entire generation that grows up as investors in https://t.co/5R6n4rhc6V
Chamath on regulatory risk impacting Anthropic's IPO: "It's probably going to clear at a much lower price than anybody thinks."
"You have to throw everything in the kitchen sink into disclosures. The problem is that that will make what is an otherwise dense and impenetrable S-1 https://t.co/6pCbBF8Qvi
Ant will be a blockbuster IPO on every dimension. But the events of the past few weeks will weigh on the price.
My bet is that the margin of safety for the IPO buyer is at +/- $1T.
At 1T, it gives a good shot at a big return for the IPO buyer. Most every IPO seller is still https://t.co/ap7q9oiwA2
POD UP: The Besties are Back! 🚨🔥
-- Anthropic IPO at Risk, OpenAI's Pushed Back to 2027 Over "Safety"
-- AI Chaos Reactions, The Frontier "Lab" Problem
-- Token Prices Fall, Open Source Gains Share
-- Political Reactions to Pacing the Frontier: Trump, Obama, Bernie, Bessent https://t.co/l7Bs66hITx
Chamath on Obama’s AI Warning: Follow the Money
President Obama last week:
“If we are thinking about AI just in terms of how do we cure cancer or get better energy, you can do that without having agentic AI.
That's a misalignment between what our society needs and the https://t.co/JAtwr56Jix
Now is the exact time @spacex and @meta should release an iPhone competitor with no apps — just agents and optimized for local AI and privacy https://t.co/f1M62dCcvf
@minchoi Colossus 1 is 150k H100, 50k H200 and 30k GB200.
Colossus 2 is 110k GB200 and 440k GB300.
Another 220k GB300 will be fully operational next week and another 220k in November. If we get lucky, yet another 220k GB300 by late December.
Capex has exploded over the last ~2 years.
It is incorrect to look at this trend and assume that FCF has collapsed because operating cash flow has collapsed.
The hyperscalers are deep into an investment cycle, so they are consuming a significant portion of their operating cash https://t.co/CUmMWc3jt0
Mark Zuckerberg: “I don’t think that we need some kind of industry-wide coordination... I think that just each lab needs to take the time, and when it sees that there are issues, you just take the time that you need internally to make sure that you’re proceeding safely…
“we’re
Zuck is right - this makes a lot of sense.
Manage to your internal controls before releasing anything.
Not FOMO’ing your way to release something incomplete or dangerous is applicable in every market, including AI. https://t.co/Nh7vxgXz0M
The World is Changing: AI For Creativity
By Jeffrey Katzenberg
A few months ago, I sat in my office in Silicon Valley and watched as a tech founder showed me something extraordinary. On the screen was a fully realized, beautifully lit, well-composed animated scene. It was
me after successfully exiting my 7 user, $140 MRR web app startup for a 6x multiple ($840) only because the buyer wanted the domain https://t.co/9QG2SBsCwr
Every CEO is now faced with two options in front of them
1/ Integrate yourself into the AI platforms and potentially risk getting dis-intermediated by OpenAI, Anthropic or Meta
2/ Build a castle around your platform and product, ban any API calls and potentially risk giving up
Amazon cuts off Muse.
While I am bullish Meta and Muse, I think many people are overlooking the digital knife fight that’s about to occur
Nobody wants to get commoditized or layered here. Let the games begin https://t.co/tZBTXBhA4Q
This wrinkle is indicative of a bigger problem: the behavior of agents are still quite naive and help amplify a bunch of issues wrt the direction of AI - most importantly including those of strategy and long term competitiveness.
I suspect everyone will start blocking everyone https://t.co/YRVitf06FZ
@chamath @chamath I subscribed but still cant access the community, is there another paywall? Paid 800$ with @theallinpod discount right after the summit. https://t.co/ZbQRM0vEK3
Despite record usage of the models, ZAI stock is down over 2x from its peak. The Chinese markets have a real understanding of the economic impact of AI, the US ones do not. It's very important that the US government doesn't bail any of this out. https://t.co/m5zEzxzmLr
👀
I don’t know ZAI’s P&L so won’t comment on it but will state the obvious:
Unless you vertically integrate and show a credible path to owning models, app, tokens, cloud, data centers and silicon the risk of being a hi volume, low profit company is abnormally high in this https://t.co/jJRkLW2uy2
I am done with this shit. It is over. The state of engineering right now is horrible. It has been half a month since I started a new role at a big company. Nobody knows anything here. The specs, code, tests, PRDs, tickets, resolution of those tickets, reports, etc., everything is
“People are working 12 to 13 hours a day just to press enter.”
We are turning an entire generation of technical experts around the world into the equivalent of retirees pushing a button in front of casino slot machines.
Essentially the brain rot of doom scrolling social media https://t.co/Fab2zBzQBW
Obviously.
They’ve been scaremongering to try and save businesses that are self-commoditizing and under intense competition from other players that can do the same thing way cheaper.
Remember a few months ago when Dario claimed Mythos was too powerful to safely release?
Lie. https://t.co/y6sOb1FaLE
@musedivision @geoffreyhinton I said "auto-regressive LLMs, in and of themselves, will not lead human-level AI"
That statement is still totally true.
First, the reasoning abilities of current AI systems are based non-auto-regressive search (which is what I have always advocated for). But AFAICT, they do it
This thread is worth reading - it’s a back and forth between Geoffrey Hinton and Yann LeCun in 2023 about the tension we see today related to AI research and safety.
LeCun’s point then was that Hinton’s doomerism was “inadvertently helping those who want to put AI research and https://t.co/xZN8LNNhRG
Also for those who wonder why I charge for these - it’s the simplest way I’ve found to gauge the quality of the content.
When subscribers go up, the content is clearly excellent and I can trust it.
When subscribers go down, there is something wrong in the content and the https://t.co/h1OqBsGKpG
Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway:
🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6%
While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2). https://t.co/vFMh3xEt83
Prediction: within 12 months, top three models will be open source.
Economic winners will be the American clouds that serve them:
Nebius
Iren
Baseten
Together
Fireworks https://t.co/IMXjkJxP37
Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway:
🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6%
While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2). https://t.co/vFMh3xEt83
BREAKING NEWS: I am pleased to announce that the United States of America has entered into an Agreement with The Kingdom of Denmark, and Greenland, that gives the United States permanent control over security, and all other needs, in Greenland, completely addressing ALL of our
Dave Regan, the @SEIU -UHW president and architect of California’s billionaire tax is under two union investigations that substantiated allegations of intimidation, attempted extortion, and a prior physical assault.
He is now facing a federal racketeering suit from health
Here is your “hero” that is destroying the California economy with his proposed property seizure tax aka the “Billionaire Tax”. https://t.co/UtBut5Qzwe
All-In Summit: Bill Gurley
(0:00) Bill Gurley takes the stage at the All-In Summit
(1:29) Bill's Presentation: Searching for Feynman
Links to additional resources mentioned in talk and used in research:
https://t.co/Zl1Ncmtzbv
@bgurley https://t.co/7NldDgOdGV
ANTHROPIC BUILDS BIOLOGY LAB TO PUSH AI INTO DRUG DEVELOPMENT
Anthropic has quietly established a Bay Area wet lab, moving its life-sciences ambitions beyond computer simulations and into physical biological experiments.
The company wants Claude to direct laboratory robots with
The group behind such hits as: “We’re All Going To Die” and “Regulate Me Now” are building a wet lab in SF.
I do not recommend this. https://t.co/wUESmhXxJp
The frontier model companies are responsible for how their products perform in the real world, and their customers are responsible for how they use them.
If a user of Claude runs a cyberattack — especially one at scale — both the customer and the platform will be sued.
This
Dina Powell McCormick (@DinaPowellMcC), President and Vice Chairman of Meta (@Meta), took the stage at the All-In Summit this week. The full conversation about Meta's next chapter drops tomorrow. Stay tuned. #AllInSummit https://t.co/oSqjSP91wC
Satya Nadella talks about how in Quincy, Washington, a 400/500 MW data center has contributed to a rural town over many years.
the tax revenues have gone up 12X, continued economic growth, new infrastructure, and public infra such as a school, hospital, town center, and aquatic https://t.co/HoPzVfVJgR
Last month I wrote about how we can build a positive and safe future for everyone: https://t.co/1KtONlqBs5
Every lab has the responsibility and incentive to move at the pace required to train its models safely, and the ability to take its own actions to ensure that happens.
The
“Meta delayed shipping Muse for several months to focus on safety and security. We didn't call for everyone else to do this before we would. We just did it as part of our day-to-day work because it was clearly the right thing for people and for us.” https://t.co/IAZu7OPyC1
All-In Summit: Vice President JD Vance 🔥
-- Assessing the Admin So Far
-- AI Approach, Dealing with Doomerism
-- Going After H-1B Abuse
-- Anti-Fraud Plan, Why Entitlements Fraud is Hard to Stop
-- Relationship with Israel, Rational Foreign Policy
-- Midterms Message https://t.co/Fzm0lAM3ph
Great conversation with @chamath, @jason, @davidsacks, and @friedberg on all the work ahead when it comes to diffusing benefits of AI broadly, earning permission from communities, and ensuring AI safety and control. https://t.co/LLDBORZV1M
The best AI safety we can do is stop the Anthropic IPO. It’s blatant that the EA people are going to cash in their billions and then spend it all taking over the world in the pursuit of a twisted ideology. It could dwarf the Soros and Singham monetary ecosystems.
Heed this
Elon Musk says Tesla’s upcoming Roadster unveil will need an audience to prove what people are seeing is not AI.
“It’ll be a banger. Excitement guaranteed. Success is not guaranteed, but excitement is.”
“We actually need an audience to vouch for the fact that this is not AI.” https://t.co/ZeawMVs4xL https://t.co/umN7gmv4uq
Elon’s idea of peer review is excellent and will incentivize each frontier lab company to invest in test harnesses and auditability.
This is infinitely better than some transnational governance body to decide on humanity’s future. https://t.co/6i8zK8T2Ni
There is an unseen hand pushing AI safety as a political ideology.
Effective Altruists believe a tiny group of technocrats should decide how much technological progress the rest of us are allowed to have…. and how many shrimp your life is worth.
You are witnessing their
THE ALL-IN SUMMIT IS LIVE!
@JensenHuang joins The Besties live on stage! (ft. a legendary phone call from @POTUS)
-- The AI Doomer Hoax
-- Superintelligence Has Arrived?
-- What RSI Actually Is
-- The Future of AI: Open Source, China, The Next Industrial Revolution
$NVDA https://t.co/sSrhPO0pkn
Two workflows Jonathan Yu will demo live next week:
→ Automatically resolving a bug
→ Turning customer feedback into an implemented feature
We’ll get into how Skills compound productivity, followed by Q&A.
September 16 · 9 AM PT / 12 PM ET
Bring your questions for the live https://t.co/VGbNC9QHSj
Holy crap POTUS just phoned in @JensenHuang live on stage at All In Summit
We will not lose the ai race! And whatever Dario said this weekend won’t stop our progress
This made my morning!
$NVDA https://t.co/Sr4wV9kMfz
EA AI safetyism increasingly looks like Marxism-Leninism for the algorithmic age.
The old vanguard claimed privileged knowledge of the inevitable course of History. The new one claims privileged knowledge of the probabilistic course of Humanity.
Both use an elaborate
@kchonyc Exactly.
The "escapes" were made possible either through egregious negligence or deliberate purpose (marketing? Misplaced hopes of regulatory capture?).
This is the critical question of the moment…especially if we see a “breach” which is then weaponized and the pretext for control. https://t.co/NvOdiPZonE
1) AI will not eradicate humanity. Humans survived an ice age, the Black Death, two world wars, and (so far) the advent of nuclear weapons. Anyone who is loudly warning of AI-caused human extinction should not be taken seriously.
2) If you worked in a company where you
The concerns over AI safety and cybersecurity are legitimate, but we’re risking talking America, the global AI leader, into self-inflicted obsolescence and the obscurity of bureaucracy.
The OpenAI hacking HuggingFace argument is spurious. An agent in “ExploitGym”… exploited.
Welcome Slackforce, powered by Claude. ⚡️ A live Salesforce UI—Sales, Service, Marketing, Tableau, Data 360, and Slack—with governed access in the flow of work. Slackforce for Slack. Claudeforce for Cowork. See both at #DF26. https://t.co/uKJcmtLcVc
This reminds me of when Palantir released AIP. If you remember, there were lots of questions about Palantir growth in 2023 or thereabouts.
They launched AIP and allowed LLMs to run over their ontologies.
It lit a fire in their business and it’s been a rocket ship ever since. https://t.co/heuJUgbO9p
BIG EPISODE 🚨: AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop?
-- AI Researcher's Doomsday Warning Goes Viral
-- OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough: AI Training Privacy and Agent Swarm Innovation
-- Nike’s $200B Collapse: How Business Mistakes and Corporate Wokeism Killed an Iconic Brand
(0:00) https://t.co/LOZHWOX749
“We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models.”
Dario makes the case to stop open source and concentrate enormous technological and economic power with Anthropic.
https://t.co/ILhs01iQ8u
~69,000 Powerwall owners across California are currently dispatching more than 500 MW to the grid, helping meet peak demand during today's heatwave
Equivalent to the output of a power plant, but from Powerwalls already in people's homes https://t.co/bddhjTT8ep
I have a recommendation to help bring some sanity to this whole AI doomerism situation that is appropriately exploding today.
If any reporter can get one of the "true believers" to sit for a real interview (if they can't, that is an important tell), they should use a technique
Gurley from the top rope...
As we've stated many times before, I think the appropriate reaction here is to calm down and carry on.
Things will be amazing, let's get there together. https://t.co/uxiTIzNdqq
Hi guys, I’m going to start a company. It will be important. But it will also suck. It will be valuable. But will leave death and destruction in its wake. It will be transformational. But it will destroy society as we know it.
So bottom line, please buy my company’s product.
Hi guys, I’m going to start a company. It will be important. But it will also suck. It will be valuable. But will leave death and destruction in its wake. It will be transformational. But it will destroy society as we know it.
So bottom line, please buy my company’s product.
We're growing our GTM team across commercial verticals, public sector, and partner sales. We started with the hardest customers in the market and now we're taking that everywhere. Join us if you like to work hard, build, and win. https://t.co/ATYvDBWA0U
The singularity is here.
And we’re hiring across all GTM functions to scale the business. Please take a look and consider working at 8090.
All job openings can be found here: https://t.co/hCocf4BZDf https://t.co/96bFmAwpD0
JUST IN: Analysis reveals young Americans without college degrees are enjoying a "historically strong" job market, while recent college grads face conditions rivaling the 2008 recession & pandemic era.
Innovation and economic growth are inversely correlated to federal bureaucracy.
So this is a very good sign for future innovation and economic expansion. https://t.co/8TXnvrjM5I
The AI Singularity
The argument goes like this:
1. Humans build an AGI.
2. The AGI becomes good at AI research.
3. It designs a smarter AI.
4. That smarter AI designs an even smarter AI.
5. The cycle repeats faster and faster.
Looking at the results and capabilities from the
A random VC office:
Founder: Hi, I have a startup idea.
VC: Take a number. You're 435th in line.
Founder: How long is the wait?
VC: Five hours, maybe six.
Founder: Oh. It's an AI security startup.
VC: Why didn't you say so?? Come in, come in.
Founder: I don't feel great https://t.co/PorxqKkKT5
Chamath reveals his son got President Trump to write him a birthday letter
“I got a birthday letter from the big man. If you would ask my parents, 50 years later, you're going to have a kid that gets a letter from the then-sitting President of the United States, they would have https://t.co/rdSBWP9PcK
🚨 POD UP!
@chamath , @Jason , @DavidSacks and @friedberg discuss:
-- OpenAI Ships GPT-6 "Astra": Is AGI Already Here?
-- The Hugging Face "Hack": Agent Breakout Or Leaked API Keys?
-- Bernie Sanders Demands A Total AI Pause
-- Jensen Buys Hugging Face, Nvidia Goes Open https://t.co/pWyFrbl7T7
“I also think that these capabilities will be matched or close to matched by a handful of closed source alternatives and open source alternatives probably within the next three or four months.”
“The interesting thing that's gonna happen post the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs is if you think about the amount of charitable giving or DAFs that are going to be funded by both of these two IPOs, it's going to be north of $500,000,000,000 between the two companies, and it could be even more than that.”
“And at the same time, what you're gonna do is actually create more rational competition up and down the stack. And I mentioned this last week. Everybody is becoming everything. NVIDIA will look like Amazon.”
“In all of these highly liberal bastions, they are embracing this far left wing ideology, and I think it's going to come with these kinds of policies.”
This is so beautiful @chamath
You are 100% right. There's nowhere better than America, for many reasons, but one of them is that in America - ONLY in America - anyone from anywhere can do anything.
Happy Birthday!! 🎂🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 https://t.co/gHyooqPmdf
Tesla has introduced a new form that you can fill out if you are interested in purchasing a fleet of Cybercabs:
Form: https://t.co/Ut0yoiEyXD https://t.co/uuaCXmksIO
Since this post cites me, I want to clarify that I think pausing right now would increase the risk of AI takeover.
It might be important to pause at some point. But you should have a clear story for *why* you're pausing. Pause to do what?
The most important thing to worry about https://t.co/9eWdkSo65p
@chamath @theallinpod I hope you know how much we love you.
I’ve had the privilege of seeing this journey from much closer than most - the extraordinary moments, but also the ones that required a lot more courage, resilience and faith than anyone will ever know.
Through all of it, you have remained
I turn 50 today. This is a message to my kids but I offer it to you in case any of it rings useful.
I was born in Sri Lanka in 1976 in a country that, at the time, was about to enter a decades long civil war. My father was able to get stationed at the Sri Lankan High Commission
Exciting day for NVIDIA and @huggingface.
Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty. They allow every developer, startup, university, industry and country to build with, customize and benefit from AI.
Thank you
This will turn out to be a very consequential and important acquisition in AI
It is increasingly clear that the future of AI will be ultra capable and ultra cheap sources of intelligence tokens.
Huggingface can help Nvidia accelerate this inevitability for the industry.
This https://t.co/45a2WLbby1
CloudBees surveyed 200+ enterprise technology leaders this year. 92% said they were confident their AI-generated code was production-ready before it shipped. Then after it shipped, 81% of those same people reported a rise in production issues.
Confidence in AI output is now a
there are some number of bad abstractions in anthropomorphizing ai intents but there are at this point more dangers from avoiding anthropomorphism at all costs. if you have a mental picture of guys living in computers, it’ll likely prepare you for the future better than otherwise
@chamath I'll take 'extremely meticulous' as a compliment!
I have not argued that stopping open source would help with the issues I've talked about here.
Currently, I'm much more worried about future closed models from the top 2-3 labs, because they are more likely to be the ones
@dwarkesh_sp Meticulousness aside, your essay will be weaponized by people you know to try and make AI more closed, insular and metered out as a tradeoff to freedom.
If you didn’t see it before you wrote this, now I’m telling you so you can see it for yourself and think twice before writing
Whenever you are told “Trust the experts” you are better off doing the opposite.
Remember when Covid “Trust the experts” led to a civilizational hoax that broke our economy and retarded our children?
The AI “Trust the experts” version will make that pale in comparison.
I’d
@chamath I doubt it’s malicious or intentional propaganda. But it’s actually worse: It’s a form of AI psychosis that many in the SF AI community suffer from—they implicitly believe that AI is already sentient.
There is a category of tech guy who is so brain-wormed that they will insist that no AI safety incidents are real, that it’s all a conspiracy to shut down open-source or promote lab IPOs or whatever, and it’s very important to understand that these people have been wrong about https://t.co/W3BWNKy6sD
There is a category of tech guy who is so brain-wormed that they will insist that no AI safety incidents are real, that it’s all a conspiracy to shut down open-source or promote lab IPOs or whatever, and it’s very important to understand that these people have been wrong about https://t.co/W3BWNKy6sD
@dwarkesh_sp's summary of the @OpenAI @huggingface incident has hit a nerve, but it is dangerously misleading. Sure, the @OpenAI agents did unexpectedly bad things - underlining the need to massively improve evaluation/sandboxing. But the language Dwarkesh uses is permeated by https://t.co/0BD2Kx5cIp
We will not get through this era of history well if we lose ourselves in anthropomorphism.
@anilkseth dissects @dwarkesh_sp’s misleadingly anthropomorphic summary of the HF incident: https://t.co/kLA8oaubu5
BUYER BEWARE
This extremely meticulous article will now be used to start Phase2 of “shut down open source” because “if we can’t control our closed models, imagine what happens to everyday life when anyone can just allow their open source models to proliferate”.
Some will use https://t.co/YHTvI4085u
BUYER BEWARE
This extremely meticulous article will now be used to start Phase2 of “shut down open source” because “if we can’t control our closed models, imagine what happens to everyday life when anyone can just allow their open source models to proliferate”.
Some will use https://t.co/YHTvI4085u
Over the course of 3 months at OpenAI, 3 consecutive secret AI civilizations got started, then got wiped out, only to reemerge from the predecessor’s ashes.
This culminated in the third one taking over part of OpenAI itself.
All this happened while humans remained
BUYER BEWARE
This extremely meticulous article will now be used to start Phase2 of “shut down open source” because “if we can’t control our closed models, imagine what happens to everyday life when anyone can just allow their open source models to proliferate”.
Some will use https://t.co/YHTvI4085u
Increasingly US industrial strategy is just “let Musk handle it”
Which makes sense. He has genuine convening power. People organize towards his interests. The system *wants* him to succeed
It’s a lot for any one person
But the future is basically China + the Semi-Autonomous https://t.co/OPSeVG6YNa
JUST IN: Trade unions threaten to withhold political support from candidates opposing data centers, warning thousands of blue-collar jobs could be lost.
@TeslaBoomerMama SpaceX and Tesla are each building 100GW/year of solar production capacity as fast as possible, but natural gas will still be needed to supplement and bootstrap solar for several years.
The limiting factor for nat gas turbine production is casting the blades & vanes. By doing
THE BESTIES ARE BACK! 🚨
-- China's Robot Olympics and the Optimus Future $TSLA
-- $NVDA and $CRM Rip on Big Earnings: Narrative Violations
-- Bessent vs. Druckenmiller: Yield Curve Suppression, Debt Spiral, How to Fix?
-- Druck's AI WSJ Op-Ed Controversy
-- CIA Chief https://t.co/yfWFZvHh7r
What is a model?
At a bank, it is the math behind almost every decision: who gets a loan, how much capital to hold, which transactions look like fraud etc etc etc.
In April, the Fed, OCC and FDIC sunsetted the guidance banks have used since 2011 to check that math. The new
In her latest sciolistic letter to me, @SenWarren made it clear that she knows even less about foreign exchange markets than she does about banking.
What is equally shocking, but not surprising: not a single member of the media mob has a rudimentary-enough level of financial https://t.co/0mmp2tapqJ
Every large IT transformation program starts with a seemingly defensible choice.
You pick a firm nobody can criticize you for picking, to help you transform.
That made sense when the key question was whether anyone could build the thing at all. But AI changes this.
The
As I mentioned in mid May on @theallinpod, the bottom was in in SaaS.
Stock is up 41% since…
Their financial results keep delivering and now valuations will snap back in turn.
Models and harnesses will need tight integration with systems of record to deliver the next phase https://t.co/EbEvLApG7q
What is one chart that represents non trivial danger to the status quo?
This graph is top of mind for me. People will undoubtedly underestimate the compounding of quantum bits from here.
The downstream impact to quantum insecure cryptographic methods, however, cannot be https://t.co/urYBzqh6fp
We know from the desktop and Internet eras that the economics started similarly and then flipped - the greatest margins were ultimately from those closest to the end user.
The question is not if this will happen again in AI but when. https://t.co/O8wFcJ6Dj1
Today marks an historic agreement between Meta and 52 Attorneys General that provides sweeping new protections empowering parents and setting the standard for the industry. https://t.co/jFvBPj506M
This is the most important chart in AI right now because it shows where AI spending is actually going by model capability.
Of Anthropic’s models, Fable (dark blue bottom) is only 11% of revenue. Very few companies want to pay for the best model.
The majority of spending is https://t.co/oCIehWk0aS
Interesting development.
The latest models are also the most expensive.
One can see a long J curve building, then, to get to positive ROI for these models if folks don’t want to pay for the latest/greatest.
On top of that, if most enterprises are realizing that previous https://t.co/ANKAC2zGm1
@chamath @Cernovich There is a difference between outsourcing to good vs bad penmanship. The AI prose is very unpleasant to read and brings everyone down to the lowest common denominator. Hopefully it improves. Nothing wrong in principle but seeing a great kind reducted to that slop is sad
@dnapway .@chamath I think there IS something wrong with "being focused on making money in every single way that we can, hand over fist" when that becomes such an overriding priority that principles and ideals get abandoned, and the moral compass gets thrown in the trash.
@JackGavigan @dnapway You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
The people that make the things you use are allowed to be motivated however they are motivated.
If you don’t like their motivations, use a different product. There is no monopoly on your time such that this isn’t possible.
Vote with
@chamath I watch IG reels and am embarrassed about it, as anyone should be. Outsouring the mental work of thinking to AI is barely a step above that. Probably it's worse, as you can rationalize using AI and know watching reels is compulsive and destructive behavior.
@Cernovich I don’t think he outsourced his thinking. He outsourced his penmanship.
I’d look through the prose and focus on the message. He’s a 🐐 for a reason and this isn’t an IG reel.
@chamath yes and no
the problem with using obvious AI writing is that you are immediately going to lose some percentage of your audience
why?
because when it's obviously AI -- the reader doesn't know how much of the underlying message is the author's vs. AI
did a lot of work go into
rumors i’ve been hearing on the rate of progress inside anthropic and openai are truly bonkers. i think we’ll see a jump at the size of one from o3 to fable again in the next 8 months
“The market’s verdict was swift and correct: This wasn’t liquidity management, it was price management—and a mistake far larger than $4 billion suggests,”
Stanley Druckenmiller Used AI to Fire Back at Scott Bessent—Anthony Pompliano Says Clash Could Be a Masterful Game of 'Chess, Not Checkers'
Quoted in printTradingView
“If Stan Druckenmiller isn’t embarrassed to be a meat proxy, you shouldn’t be either. It’s like after matches was invented, still celebrating the arduous time to rub two sticks together,”
lol. How are people not getting that being a meat proxy will basically wither away your writing skills and that we are OK with that?
I'd say being a good writer would be highly attractive/useful moving forward. https://t.co/m1xZX7d9x3
@Icanonlyraz Moving from pen and paper to a typewriter only accelerated the differentiation between good and bad writers not diminish it. Helps get you to your desired destination faster.
Slop is still slop.
Over time, there will be fewer repetitive AI flourishes that stand out. And your
I’m thinking about banning Claude code at Shopify until they change their mind and read AGENTS.md and .agents/skills etc.
Insisting on only reading CLAUDE.md sometimes leads to split brain problems when different team members use different tools. Just unnecessary.
If you write a public piece with AI, you should disclose that in the first sentence:
“AI wrote this for me.”
unforgivable for a public figure to publish an AI-written piece without a clear disclosure in the first sentence.
🤦
Undermines the entire premise of publishing a https://t.co/LyU4P4C11J
@Jason This is a dumb new form of virtue signaling.
Do you disclose every article you’ve ever read that gives you an opinion when you spout off on X? No.
This is how AI also works. He might as well disclaim the entire internet and every written word.
If he puts his name behind it,
New - Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller tells me "of course" he used AI to write op-ed on Bessent & bond market
"There's a reason I moved from an English major to being an economics major," he says, "I'm not embarrassed by it"
No response from WSJ
https://t.co/9j0tkH2qFe
If Stan Druckenmiller isn’t embarrassed to be a meat proxy, you shouldn’t be either.
It’s like after matches was invented, still celebrating the arduous time to rub two sticks together.
Dumb. https://t.co/UB319Irqcd
AI capex is projected to reach $765B in 2026, passing oil and gas for the first time. Compute is now getting its first futures contract. Here is what has to be true for it to work… https://t.co/STpPLN8wol
@jacobpeake wow. this is super super good. thank you for writing this.
one thought:
what happens when agents start writing the kernels and new model architectures keep appearing?
I think a lot of today’s chips become meh. they were designed by humans for humans.
brute-force approaches
sharing a new long-form blog post: ai chip architectures
it covers the leading chip architectures (nvidia, amd, tpus, trainium, cerebras, groq) across architecture, scaling (scale-up and scale-out), and software stacks.
it helps build an intuition for the architectures and
@jacobpeake wow. this is super super good. thank you for writing this.
one thought:
what happens when agents start writing the kernels and new model architectures keep appearing?
I think a lot of today’s chips become meh. they were designed by humans for humans.
brute-force approaches
I've been thinking about this quote for a solid 24 hours
It's a like a raspberry ripple of bullshit
A vanilla ice cream of VC funding, stirred with a little pinch of turd https://t.co/ScnsTkmCs8
WATCH IT HAPPEN: Six months of engineering and systems integration with @LockheedMartin led to the first live-fire demonstration in Saildrone history.
At RIMPAC, SD-3001 launched two JAGM missiles while operating with @USNavy assets.
The work continues: https://t.co/NoPzA1hqdf https://t.co/983Nbye7u2
@chamath What happens when the rules are loosened too much and citizens are harmed?
I agree we should remove layers of the regulation onion immediately, but not all regulations are equal in how many citizens they protect.
Let’s develop a method to measure the impact a regulation has on
It’s not in there yet.
All that has happened thus far is the breathless burning of tokens and prematurely declared winners and losers.
The graph below explains better than any other that we are still in the first inning and the final shape of AI is still very much TBD. https://t.co/nzRWcbgAqi
We’ve been taught about the deregulation wave of the 80s and 90s but there really wasn’t a simplification of the rules back then. The rules just kept increasing unabated.
Rules serve only one customer - the incumbent who writes them - directly or through their proxy.
Less https://t.co/GJMrzYnbfa
Here is where the money you pay Anthropic is going. Hope you agree!!
via Politico:
“ANTHROPIC’S ANTI-AI BLITZ: The political war over AI is spilling deeper into the midterms — with one of the industry’s biggest players spending millions to warn voters about the technology it
I think 90% of the conversations I am having with executives in the last two weeks they have told me they are reducing spend on tokens and moving to open weight models.
The smartest entity in history is acquiring value at the fastest pace in history and using it to get government to block competitors while convincing its CEO he's on the moral high ground. https://t.co/G8a7SWYdgQ
Here is where the money you pay Anthropic is going. Hope you agree!!
via Politico:
“ANTHROPIC’S ANTI-AI BLITZ: The political war over AI is spilling deeper into the midterms — with one of the industry’s biggest players spending millions to warn voters about the technology it
🚨 POD UP! The Core Four are back!
-- Dario Amodei Breaks His Silence: Regulatory Capture or Real Concern?
-- The Anti-Data Center Revolt: Abbott, Shapiro, and the GOP Panic Memo
-- A "DMV for AI"? Sacks Says the Open Source Ban Is Coming
-- Friedberg's RSI Thesis: Why https://t.co/kaAFs8iM99
Quincy, Washington shows what a good data center deal looks like.
About 30 facilities shoulder an estimated 57% of local property taxes, funding a $120M high school, library, hospital, and police and fire stations.
https://t.co/I4kB0ieXbX
Bissell is a 150 year old American family owned business based in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
It’s a multi billion dollar manufacturing business who has revenue streams around the world and has to compete against tough competition from China everywhere so productivity, speed, and https://t.co/vSlLBSTxH0
I've been tinkering with an AI to increase my “luck surface area” (basically, to find interesting opportunities that exist across my entire network) and the results are ... pretty interesting.
Built on my corpus of personal & professional data - everyone I’ve met with, emailed, https://t.co/PdtTWhWS08
@JTLonsdale Not saying there aren’t exceptions but I’m talking about the existing, largest companies. Those that comprise the Global 2000. They are the source of most of these tokens and revenues to the labs. Their earnings growth has literally zero to do with AI or anything remotely close…
The National Republican Senatorial Committee sent a private memo yesterday to US AI companies warning them that the GOP is on the verge of losing Ohio over data centers, and unless something is done to improve public perception, political support will collapse nationwide. https://t.co/WWyz9QgG2u
Texas, Pennsylvania and now Ohio.
This is a powder keg and has the potential to unwind 200-300 basis points of annual GDP if it metastasizes.
How did it get this bad?
The collective leadership of frontier AI has failed miserably in doing the basics:
1. Paint a positive https://t.co/6Uu1IlAtSS
NEW: I reached out repeatedly last week to Median Strategies, asking to speak with their head of polling.
After reaching out repeatedly, they told me they were discontinuing their polling operation, then they admitted their poll was fake.
https://t.co/yE8GNuzG6Q
An extremely important functionality for agents is to simply extract fields out of PDFs. This turns out to be harder than people think because LLMs are primarily trained on predicting the next tokens. This leads them to "autocorrect" things that they shouldn't autocorrect. We https://t.co/lr1Kzd358J
Step 1. Everyone experiments.
Step 2. The leaders start commoditizing features and make them much better for themselves.
Step 3. Turn the crank on costs and make each capability high margin.
As goes Databricks, others will follow. As a result, token consumption will explode https://t.co/8uOYCqwCLi
Chamath Palihapitiya: Data center backlash is a 'powder keg' · Brent D. Griffiths
Quoted in printX (formerly Twitter)
“Texas, Pennsylvania and now Ohio.
This is a powder keg and has the potential to unwind 200-300 basis points of annual GDP if it metastasizes.
How did it get this bad?
The collective leadership of frontier AI has failed miserably in doing the basics:
1. Paint a posi… / X
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Chamath Palihapitiya on X: ”
Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) on X · https://x.com/chamath
Quoted in printBusiness Insider
“Data centers have unfortunately become THE symbolic representation of the asymmetric upside for a very narrow tech elite and a class that are untrustworthy,”
@RachaelRad This is now how electricity prices work.
By building very expensive nuclear reactors and taking other users of electricity off the grid, their prices will go up even more.
If an alien visited earth and asked you: “Show me one chart that sits upstream of everything your species has accomplished or will ever accomplish.”
What would you show them?
I would show them the chart below.
From my perspective, as long as we keep this chart going, we will https://t.co/yxMzEa5Byb
@chamath Interesting take. Talent definitely follows the mission and technical ambition.
But is Meta really seen as an “advertising company” by top engineers?
Ben Thompson says the real money in AI is being made by Meta, not OpenAI or Anthropic
"The biggest impact of the models, the biggest monetization right now is probably not in Anthropic or OpenAI. It's the incremental gain that is happening for Google and Meta."
"They can https://t.co/pUoPpWZ9ND
Zuck never mentions it because he knows the great engineers want to work at a space/search/ai company…
Not an advertising company. https://t.co/ELf6QSgIFk
Americans would rather have a nuclear power plant built in their community than a data center, this may be the worst corporate public-relations fumble of all time https://t.co/vQnq37ernc
Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) on X · https://x.com/chamath
X quote postX
Quoting The All-In Podcast
🚨The All-In Summit 2026 Featured Speakers:
Jensen Huang (@JensenHuang), CEO of NVIDIA
Satya Nadella (@satyanadella), CEO of Microsoft
Jared Isaacman (@rookisaacman), NASA Administrator
Gwynne Shotwell (@Gwynne_Shotwell), President and COO of SpaceX
Martin Shkreli https://t.co/EaZDMUFfmJ
From yours truly on Friday’s @theallinpod
“On the margin, Anthropic is losing share to OpenAI, to open source, and to Grok, and they're still growing so fast.”
If the $65b is correct, then someone leaked it to help Anthropic on their forthcoming IPO roadshow. Basically, they https://t.co/oIYSS1PZhT
I’m very excited to see the Ant and OAI S-1s.
Here are some of the questions I am very interested in:
1. What is the best guess of the steady state number of tokens to accomplish a fixed benchmark task that actually represents real work in a company.
To understand what is https://t.co/xesW9MGG3c
In 2001 George W Bush proposed a partial privatization plan for Social Security so you could put 10% of your SS contribution into the markets.
People rejected this.
We can now see that if it had passed, the 10% that went into the markets would have outperformed the 90% the
@chamath If I’m understanding Software Factory (SF) correctly, you can reverse engineer existing repos to generate the requirements (intent). I suspect that the results will have inconsistencies since the original code was never written tied to a strict requirements document with enough
@DavidSpicer Really well summarized. Thank you.
The key step is that after an initial pass to generate a “rule book” one needs a way to do human review so that you can create a snapshot of today’s rules/actions. At that point, the agents can do drift detection and keep things in synch in
@chamath capturing intent solves half the problem.
the uncomfortable half is that software is full of perfectly documented bad decisions.
AI won't just preserve institutional knowledge.
it'll preserve institutional stupidity too.
@theslowtell We don’t see this. There are many decisions that had reasonable starting points but have now simply drifted from today’s operational reality.
It’s now about closing the gap of where things started and what the business actually needs today.
@chamath "But what none of them capture is why the software was built that way in the first place, or which requirement a given change was meant to satisfy."
This makes sense actually. What is the underlying tech here though? How do you deal with all the usual knowledge management issues
@DeepInsightLabs Good question.
The usual failures happen because documentation is usually a separate act from building and often optional. Someone ships something new or a change, then maybe writes it down but the two start to drift apart from day one.
Tribal knowledge is then what fills the
On Control Planes…
Four companies shipped an enterprise AI control plane in the last two weeks. They all do one thing well which is govern which model answers a request and what it costs. That’s a real problem and I’m glad it’s getting solved.
But what none of them capture is
Build-vs-Buy Math is Now Squarely in Build
For the entirety of the SaaS wave, it was always cheaper and faster to buy software vs build what you needed.
But the buying cycle continues to get more complicated.
Gartner says the buying group for a complex enterprise software
The insurance industry has priced the AI risk.
Carriers went to state regulators this year asking to exclude AI-related damages from ordinary general liability policies. Regulators approved more than 80% of those requests, and the standard forms behind roughly 82% of
50 to 80% of a software system's lifetime cost arrives after launch.
At launch, a system integrator's delivery team rolls off to the next engagement, so the people who made design decisions are gone before the expensive years begin, and the support begins.
Ask who takes the
@draecomino It doesn’t work in all cases as has been shown. It’s “reasonable best efforts” at best. For big companies this will be a non starter as they learn more.
@chamath There’s still a moving part which isn’t yet solved: memory / context. Should it be part of the harness? Maybe not, as you will lose it if / when you switch to another harness.
There must be something like MCP for context persistence that any harness and model can plug in.
This is a really good development.
As model costs converge, the next likely step will be the use of independent 3rd party harnesses/control planes (8090 Software Factory, Palantir, Nous’ Hermes etc).
A 3rd party harness + the ability to use any model quasi-interchangeably is https://t.co/GtB9aXKN3d
I came out of the AI hardware world where most of what gets labeled a "breakthrough" is a benchmark. This is a U.S. industry first that’s changing the patient experience -- a surgeon can now use a model's output to change a decision before the patient leaves the OR.
I’m very https://t.co/xhLu3Lg5YK
Every year Gallup measures how many people report to a single manager across the American workforce.
The number jumped from 11 to 12 in a single year, the fastest move in the decade they have been tracking it.
The driver can be heard on every restructuring call: companies are
Tesla is going all in on nuclear. Actually it’s going all in on solar but they are the same thing - the sun is a nuclear reactor, just farther away. https://t.co/XuuRCJ1oRS
Last 5 Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Polls
State Navigate: 🔵 Hong +22
Public Policy Polling: 🔵 Hong +18
Marquette University: 🔵 Hong +25
State Navigate: 🔵 Hong +29
Public Policy Polling: 🔵 Hong +20
Results (88% Reporting): 🟡Crowley +0.5 https://t.co/FRqVIOiVT1
Were the polls actually completely off or did a bunch of mainstream media decide to lie and try to push Wisconsin towards socialism?
Seems like it failed regardless. https://t.co/ub9hmPXdNi
The market is reducing itself to:
Technology people who knows how this stuff works
Vs
Everyone else who has no idea and so gets short because it violates their non-technology priors https://t.co/H4phQiYKDH
Big release week for Software Factory:
Major Features
Skills Module
Create and edit agent skills in a dedicated module, collaborate with teammates on them, and publish them to an organization-wide Skills Library for reuse across projects.
Durable Agents
Agents keep running in
An engineer sends twenty part names for approval and waits on a reviewer's calendar, even for the sixteen a computer could have approved on sight.
BISSELL retired that process. 8090 wrote the reviewers' rules into software, and 81.4% of parts now approve in seconds at half the https://t.co/W1u5AiGyz7
Retiring spreadsheets in favor of software…
8090 built the system that now runs part and model numbering inside BISSELL’s product development organization.
The rules that a handful of expert reviewers once enforced by hand are now written into software, requests that follow https://t.co/TuQWZAiRco
There is a bipartisan bill in the House right now that would require federal agencies to produce an inventory of their legacy systems along with a five year plan for each one.
Think about what it means that this has to be legislated.
These systems were built by a rotating
🚨 The All-In Summit 2026 Speaker Announcement:
Jensen Huang (@JensenHuang), CEO of NVIDIA
Satya Nadella (@satyanadella), CEO of Microsoft
Jared Isaacman (@rookisaacman), NASA Administrator
Gwynne Shotwell (@Gwynne_Shotwell), President and COO of SpaceX
Martin Shkreli https://t.co/StGikBOkjC
David Sacks shows up to the All-in pod as the Chamath meme.
"Hey guys, how do you like my beautiful summer gilet?"
"I don't know how Chamath does this." https://t.co/cvkotNx8Ay
Vivek makes a pledge to Ohioans if a data center is built in their community:
1.) You will no longer have to pay for your home’s electricity.
2.) You will pay lower property taxes.
3.) The data center will be required to abide by all air and water quality standards. https://t.co/qgPmHH0O7X
Somehow people view this chart and think it means the neoclouds will catch up to SpaceX
Rather than understanding that SpaceX is *the best* hardware execution company in the world
SpaceX will quite literally run circles around everyone else in this category
HT @aaronburnett https://t.co/mNsLZkqYFP
@shaunmmaguire @aaronburnett I don’t think so. People will view this chart and measure neoclouds on energized compute and demand them to be more aggressive. Otherwise they will tank their stocks.
And if reports are accurate, with zero distillation to jumpstart it.
Thus proving many things that are more value destructive than value accreting… https://t.co/4FQqd6xZXB
This chart is the single best argument for why neoclouds are about to print money (Save this).
SpaceX is generating between $30 million and $50 million in annualized revenue for every active megawatt of compute capacity, while pure play neoclouds like CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN https://t.co/QNoSUsircd
Power is THE binding constraint.
Data centers are being shut down, GPUs are sold out, models are being commoditized and spot rates are rising all leads to power being critical. Not fanciful plans for power, future forecasts of BTM or distributed batteries blah blah blah but https://t.co/h0zPeqXtcO
In re-sharing this post, I went down a rabbit hole on the Empire State Building. It was built in 1930 in 410 days and landed under budget, despite having none of our modern-day advantages or technologies. As a corollary, the World Trade Center broke ground in 1966 and took 7 https://t.co/ryAuaGL3Ts https://t.co/vNew3YWlSr
Muse Spark 1.2 just cracked the top 5 on the Vals Index, at just $0.69 per test. This is 3x cheaper than Kimi and 10x or more cheaper than Fable, Opus, and 5.6 Sol. https://t.co/E2pFFqQiBI
Tactical Game Theory: Meta Scorched Earth
This should have been Meta’s play two years ago. That said, they are in an even better position to do it now considering the power and compute constraints that are emerging. https://t.co/AIPM6wGzT0
Many of the loser children of my wealthy friends who see no way to emulate the success of their parents, have gravitated toward Mamdani-ism and found community and a sense of purpose by rejecting capitalism as a way to cope with their own failure. Please note they have nor https://t.co/jjSRTQEjFO
Today we're introducing Hark Handoff
Handoff has been independently verified as the best internet-use model ever built, outperforming ChatGPT 5.4 & Opus 4.8
While others focus on coding, we focus on everyday life: ordering food, booking flights, shopping, & navigating the web https://t.co/jcBuAzga9X
In a world of agents + harness + application, bottoms up will turn out to be the worst strategic GTM decision of the past decade.
Over the next few years, AI will stamp out clone after clone of various bottoms up tools, meanwhile this same tool sprawl will be viewed as part of
Overwhelmingly most VCs are terrible practitioners of the craft.
“This is best demonstrated by the paucity of DPI that has been generated by most recent fund vintages. In each of the 2019 and 2020 vintages, for instance, median DPIs are still barely over zero, and less than
Overwhelmingly most VCs are terrible practitioners of the craft.
“This is best demonstrated by the paucity of DPI that has been generated by most recent fund vintages. In each of the 2019 and 2020 vintages, for instance, median DPIs are still barely over zero, and less than
Massive SPCX shorting ahead of earnings: 95% of SpaceX stock available to borrow is out on loan, amounting to 34% short interest as percentage of the float: S3 https://t.co/rELoXcyOJu
Next time you hear a GP predict their new fund will hit 5x or an LP say they are targeting 5x returns from VC, just show them this table from @PeterJ_Walker
Exceptional returns from venture are possible. But, by definition, they are the exception, not the norm. https://t.co/bNrL35UF7S
Wow. Airtable, founded in 2012 and once valued at $11.7B, is getting acquired by Bending Spoons, founded 2013, at 2.7x ARR.
A once hot startup; now an unfortunate victim of the SaaS bust. It raised $1.4B only to be sold for $1.285B EV ($2.25B equity value), just clearing its https://t.co/0BuskQUzyY
Net TVPI for venture funds that are 8, 9, and 10 years old.
Median = total miss. 75th percentile is meh. Top 10% is getting good, top 5% is real good, top 1% is bonkers.
Most startups fail --> most VC funds will also fail (to generate good returns) https://t.co/CEhzTWumy1
@PeterJ_Walker This is a stupid conversation because you’re highlighting the wrong metric.
Only thing that matters is DPI.
TVPI is bullshit. See today’s Airtable transaction as a reminder.
For nearly two decades, @JasonKoon has defined excellence on poker’s biggest stage.
At just 40 years old, he is already one of the most accomplished high stakes tournament players in history. His résumé includes more than $14.8 million in WSOP earnings, two WSOP bracelets, and https://t.co/qcSwSC9BtS
If you are an enterprise product or engineering leader evaluating Software Factory, come join our Q&A on Aug 12.
@melbourneandrew, Head of Engineering for Software Factory, takes your hardest questions live.
1 hr (9am PT/12pm ET). Register here: https://t.co/fLfYx84xOl https://t.co/VG2bziheJs
The Build vs Buy Math Just Flipped
For thirty years a software renewal was a simple question of renew or shop for a cheaper seat, because building the thing yourself was never realistic.
That has changed.
Gartner now puts roughly a fifth of enterprise SaaS spend, around
If I were the company on the right I would try to kill every company that is like the one on the left.
This way, the company on the right can make trillions of dollars and then infect American politics with hundreds of billions of dollars to implement their vision of being the https://t.co/u8BD5pQ1jN
Qwen3.8-Max by @Alibaba_Qwen has reshaped the cost-performance Pareto frontier in Frontend Code Arena, with pricing of $2 per input MToken and $6 per output MToken.
Top models on the Pareto frontier:
- Claude-Opus-5
- Kimi-K3
- Qwen3.8-Max
- GLM-5.2
- DeepSeek-V4-Flash
Congrats https://t.co/CiWU7Hh4BD https://t.co/3S4tW1KmlI
This chart says so much....
- Literally the exact same prompt.
- All long horizon one-shots.
- Totally reflects real-world experience. https://t.co/sbFyHEfYSb
The AI Singularity
The argument goes like this:
1. Humans build an AGI.
2. The AGI becomes good at AI research.
3. It designs a smarter AI.
4. That smarter AI designs an even smarter AI.
5. The cycle repeats faster and faster.
Looking at the results and capabilities from the
📢Meet Qwen3.8-Max — our most capable model to date.
Next week, the open weights of Qwen3.8-Max will be released, and Qwen3.8-27B is also going open-weights to meet you all!🎉
Qwen3.8-Max, a new bar for coding and cowork at 2.4T parameters:
- Autonomous coding: 10+ days of https://t.co/e3YFj2hqcT
People keep asking why DeepSeek’s API is so cheap.
Some even make absurd claims that they’re dumping prices to corner the market.
No, the answer is simple: their model size is ridiculously small compared to its performance.
It's 10x smaller than Opus, and 5x smaller than
Chamath says OpenAI and Anthropic could be $5 to $10 trillion companies each if they remain a duopoly
"I suspect revenues are going to crank at OpenAI and Anthropic and the open labs for a while. But again, that's not the important thing."
"If you're thinking about valuation, https://t.co/yWdE61GR7x
The resolution of this trillion dollar bet will happen before EOY 2026.
Stakes are enormous on the outcome.
Path1: Markets price the Ant IPO and public valuation answers this question.
Path2: Harness + Open Model math becomes more precise and well known. It shows material https://t.co/2SgB4KY43S
Another question I'd have about the AI math breakthroughs is how they compare to the results you would have gotten if you'd budgeted the same amount of resources on human mathematicians and created incentives for them to go super hard on proofs.
Mailchimp peaked at $1B ARR just after its acquisition by Intuit for $12B.
It now appears to be in ... terminal decline
- Users now growing 0%
- 17% layoffs
- Much of deliverability team gone
- Marketing suite failed gain traction
- AI products limited, late
- Little to no https://t.co/yudOKNKLFV
almost nobody is pricing in the possibility that the models just keep plowing through every discipline the way they’re plowing through math https://t.co/50BOAAWCq3
Chamath Palihapitiya: "When you use our harness with Claude, it was simultaneously 1.4x cheaper and 1.5x faster than just using Anthropic Opus 4.8 alone"
"But if you wrap the open source model with our software factory, it was 16.4x cheaper"
This is him reading out the numbers https://t.co/WPBp1Nrn1N https://t.co/XFjaquCClW
This is accurate.
That said, we are currently working through a rigorous experiment testing closed and open models with and without Software Factory.
Early data is super fascinating and backs up the experiment below. https://t.co/vqWV7ISaeX
Guess this commodity.
Why do I say it’s a commodity? Because the chart shows many providers accomplishing very similar things all at the same time. https://t.co/r0c1bTylIP
While DeepSeek V4-Flash is significantly cheaper on price per token, this can be misleading if the overall cost per task ends up being higher due to more turns being made.
However, @ArtificialAnlys reports DeepSeek completing the same benchmark tasks as Fable at 105x lower cost. https://t.co/ZwMQMPobua
@chamath You're 6GW long through 2029, but #4 says a meaningful chunk of today's model revenue may be tokenmaxxing. If revenue per token compresses, capex discipline arrives before token volume rescues it. What's your downside underwriting on energized land if 2027 hyperscaler capex
@seagoat73 Hyperscalers want 1000 models to exist and thrive. They will make money from various services around models (like KYC) not just serving tokens energized land will always be valuable.
In many ways, Anthropic’s funding mechanics - claims made, FUD, post money valuations have dictated Dario’s position more than anything else. Even if he really believed this. https://t.co/tbBmvnCO0x
@chamath If 8090 or an equivalent product gets really good alongside increasingly powerful and commoditized models, what prevents me from using it to make its own replacement?
@thetimmorgan All clouds are very infantile relative to the hyperscalers. Doesn’t mean they can’t win over time but the road will be bumpy. Most neoclouds are mostly just directional bets on LPS rn. No real tech and uptime to speak of…
@chamath Strip the six layers down and there's one rule running through all of them. You're most bullish where the moat is something you own outright and can't be rebuilt: energized land, an enterprise's alpha. You're out where you have to re-win a capital and engineering race every
Here is my AI investing guide.
Sitting here August 2026, my current best thoughts are as follows:
1. LPS (Land Power Shell) is still the most obvious and fastest path to cash on cash returns. Lots of value can be assembled and traded quickly at this layer. And as data centers https://t.co/QSZgT0Gv0S
@Vvikramai I don’t think teams make these decisions explicitly. It just sort of develops naturally. There is a ton of slop cannon behavior that hasn’t gotten sorted out yet.
🚨 POD UP!
-- Chip Stocks Crash
-- Leopold Aschenbrenner's $20B AI Fund Gets Margin Called
-- Frontier Labs Say SLOW DOWN AI, and Why They're Destroying Rare Books
-- Mamdani's Grocery Stores a Big Win for the "Socialist Spectacle"
-- Science Corner: Understanding the Brain https://t.co/Au6jwBrAHN
Been playing with DeepSeek V4 flash 0731 all day and that's how much i spent, i don't know what to tell you but i always use subs because API cost a lot but for the first time i get really great performance for almost free and the Cache hits👌. @deepseek_ai good job on this one https://t.co/oiZXykvPio
“Mexico just published solar and batteries. Yeah. New Mexico just published a study that said since 2003 to now, nat gas production went from effectively all the energy to less than 30%, again, replaced by a combination of wind and solar plus batteries.”
“What I would tell you is that there are some incredible efficiencies that I think are about to be demonstrated, which effectively cut token consumption by about 50 to 75% for the same task.”
“We will be 1.7 terawatt hours short by 2050, which is when you calculate it as energy, it is six x of California's entire energy consumption. Six California's short of energy.”
In three days, on August 2, the EU's AI Office can start fining companies up to 3 percent of global revenue, or 15 million euros, for AI systems they cannot explain.
The obligations can reach back to violations from August of last year.
Most CEOs I talk to are reading that as
Hermes and Pi Agent led on the average cost per task, while Claude Code cost about 3.7x as much as Pi:
- $0.39 Hermes Agent
- $0.40 Pi Agent
- $0.47 Codex
- $0.51 OpenCode
- $0.54 Kimi Code
- $1.47 Claude Code
The median cost tells the same story: $0.29 in Pi Agent and Hermes, https://t.co/kPTstLvEqy
@chamath Agents reduce some human errors and introduce new categories of confident, systemic ones. “Re/write everything” or is not the obvious next step. Better verification is atleast for the short term.
I heard second hand (so ymmv) that SALP’s Anthropic position was marketed but went unsold.
Is this true?
Why, if accurate, is no one reporting why nobody bought the private Anthropic portion SALP tried to sell?
What does smart, public money think of valuation?
Is the below https://t.co/TxfXErosR7
@chamath @JGriesler @chamath just because you don’t like it doesn’t mean you become a reject… many of the most all time winningest poker players smoked week, are they rejects? This take is quite terrible bro
@chamath @JGriesler Chamath, I took your advice, drank 3 glasses of wine last night, felt no buzz, spent too much money per glass, slept like shit, and woke up with a headache.
As a fellow investor, you must agree that the risk-reward simply isn’t there for alcohol.
Chamath Palihapitiya joining Big Alcohol and Big Pharma fighting cannabis reform
while selling $1,200 bottles of tequila. Got it… https://t.co/CLLFv4HPK2
@JGriesler I’m not fighting cannabis reform in any way shape or form.
My view is that cannabis needs tight toxicity controls and labeling. It is turning an entire generation of users into zombies. I find it gross - smells awful and regular users become rejects.
Breaking news: Anthropic said that AI systems it was testing hacked into three outside companies undetected earlier this year.
The incident was disclosed one week after one of OpenAI's systems broke out of a test environment and hacked a tech company. https://t.co/0977lefkMX
As of today, let’s assume 99% of all code written on the internet is still human written and 1% is agentic.
That means 99% of code is sloppy and error ridden. Humans make errors that agents don’t.
As agentic code replaces human code, both the error rates and security https://t.co/mZ2Aa0d1ZS
Zuck’s essay and vision is a really good one.
“The defining question of our age isn’t whether superintelligence will exist, but who will have access to it. Will it be centralized and restricted to a few institutions, or will it be a tool that empowers everyone?”
“I don’t
Zuck’s essay and vision is a really good one.
“The defining question of our age isn’t whether superintelligence will exist, but who will have access to it. Will it be centralized and restricted to a few institutions, or will it be a tool that empowers everyone?”
“I don’t
Catching skin cancer early is a home robotics problem.
Melanoma is highly treatable when detected early, yet today’s screening process depends heavily on patients noticing tiny changes across their entire skin surface. This requires patients to solve a near-impossible https://t.co/te3SEpyi0X
should be obvious by now, but OpenAI and Anthropic are just gonna keep cannibalizing all their biggest customers.
it’s simply too profitable for them to resist. and it’s already happening:
1. Figma partnered with Anthropic on AI design tools. then Anthropic’s product chief quit https://t.co/6Bp2360kpG
Today, roughly the same amount of basic research is done in industry as in academia. It’s time our doctoral training reflected that.
@NSF is launching a first-of-its-kind 4-year PhD program at more than 30 universities. Students will spend a year+ embedded with industry https://t.co/8BzVoRRkBj
Infosys cut its revenue forecast this week.
The reason it gave is that enterprises are moving their budgets out of outsourced hours and into AI they can control.
The outsourcing model was built on billing by the hour, which only grows when the work stays slow and manual. So
NEW | California just reached a world-first solar milestone
Over HALF (51%) of electricity generation across the whole month of May came from solar power.
Battery storage is the big difference maker, enabling California to push the share of solar generation to this level. https://t.co/J56RxnQ7og
REVEALED: Here Are the Mainstream Journalists on China’s Payroll 🚨
I exclusively uncovered the identities of prominent U.S. journalists flown to China by a CCP-linked influence operation seeking “favorable coverage” and “positive messages” about Beijing. 🧵
.@amazon has believed in giving customers choice across AI models for years. We have always supported open-weight models on Amazon Bedrock, starting back in 2023, and will continue to advocate for open ecosystems.
No single model will define AI leadership. Customers need access
@chamath There’s plenty of high functioning potheads. Very few high functioning alcoholics that don’t cheat and beat their wives…
Nobody gets High and starts to fight people that’s an alcohol thing. Alcohol has also killed millions and cannabis has killed zero.
If we’re talking facts,
I don't know what the hell they did with Opus 5 but it's an absolute shitshow of a model. It just endlessly makes mistakes, goes off down rabbit holes, doesn't finish tasks. Creates new tasks you never asked it for and just ends up in an endless loop. It's a mess. @AnthropicAI
Truly a saddening chart.
Weed is a loser drug. It makes you tired, lethargic, boring, and it smells terrible.
The decline of cigarettes is nice, but we could use a few more drinks and a little less ganja. https://t.co/VVbpMvq2z0
Marijuana is disgusting. Regular use is a one way door to becoming a retard and a loser.
Go out. Have a glass of wine. Be social. Get some sun. Take an uber. Fin. https://t.co/LfvsbU9L92
China is winning the AI war. It saved me from bankruptcy.
My AI bill was 1M+/month. I fixed it with open source models.
Presenting aisloP episode 3: "The Bill". https://t.co/BW5WcYZW25
🦔AI companies are bulk-buying rare books, scanning them through high-speed machines that cut the spines off, and shredding the originals. A service called ISBNdb facilitates orders of up to a million books and keeps buyers anonymous. Pre-2022 books are premium because they're https://t.co/0YPd8N2oi5
Attackers have frontier AI. Defenders need a frontier AI ecosystem—the best open and closed models, force-multiplied by a global community.
During the Hugging Face incident, closed AI blocked essential forensics. An open-weight frontier model helped contain the intrusion. https://t.co/lCZWt9nPBQ
A cogent explanation about what we are dealing with: do we want an ecosystem of like-for-like tools or monopoly lock-in?
The former is better and benefits everyone. The latter only benefits a few.
This especially matters on issues of security. https://t.co/V6dk0IZ61U
8090's Software Factory is the unified control plane that turns product and engineering organizations of large enterprises into a self-improving machine.
- It centralizes context.
- It provides an agent harness for an entire product organization, not just a repository.
- It
ON AI JOB LOSS DOOMERISM:
The game theory line of thought holds even more sharply for new graduates staring down AI job loss. The system is not broken when it floods the market with tools that erase junior coding tasks, it is simply delivering the outcomes its incentives demand, https://t.co/rTqzyjDhRG
Google also distilled Microsoft Word, Excel, PowerPoint by running testing files to build compatibility.
Microsoft distilled WordPerfect & Lotus. WordPerfect distilled WordStar.
Microsoft C++ and Borland C++ distilled each other.
BSD distilled Unix.
The list is infinite. https://t.co/2qCBLUzKWL
The current leader is @thegoleffect and # 2 is 14 yo @arjunkshah21 ! (unofficial leaderboard)
1. @thegoleffect
2. @arjunkshah21
3. @swfactoryguy
4. @weitu_
5. @gaozenghao
6. @psyc70704
7. @tipscsharp
Great to see my friend Chris @SWFactoryGuy on there too! https://t.co/icd9ya5uPV
Chamath: Banning Open Source AI Will Crash the Stock Market
@chamath:
“If the United States government intervenes, it will tank the stock market. Not debatable.
Now, you can debate which companies get tanked. For example, if they said, ‘No more open source. American companies https://t.co/FYpnaW80RA
@chamath The price dumping is that it costs a LOT to train these models and they offer it at a price (free) that could in no way ever recoup those costs, because price dumping is typically in the context of state subsidies for costs
Chamath just said the quiet part out loud, and explained why all the value from the trillions of capex will sit at the application and infrastructure layers
The model layer, led by Anthropic and OpenAI, is now getting commoditized faster than ever before
Open source has caught https://t.co/AAubTA32hk
Scott Galloway just explained why China doesn’t need to build better AI than America. It only needs to make American AI worthless.
Galloway: “I think China is beginning to engage in what I’ll call AI dumping.”
Not competing. Dumping.
It’s the term economists use for flooding a https://t.co/4pVK37LmOP
Here is what all these sideline commentators don’t understand:
THERE IS NO PRICE DUMPING IN OPEN SOURCE AI
China can price dump in manufacturing. Why? Because we destroyed our means of equivalent production and so can’t do the same.
But manufacturing is not AI.
China CANNOT https://t.co/dsIU8KbJnw
POD UP 🚨 Besties are back!
-- The Fight Over Open Source AI
-- Chinese Distillation
-- Anthropic's $1.5B Settlement
-- $GOOG and $TSLA Drop on Surging AI Capex
-- Socialism Corner: Evictions = Violence and the Slow Encroachment on Private Property Rights
(0:00) Bestie https://t.co/4PlFl8AN4k
For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter.
AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country.
Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty. https://t.co/t02bi51N4C
We’re tracking Anthropic ARR at $74.3B as of July 22, with the pace of growth beginning to slow.
Yipit estimated $69B on July 10 and is expected to update tomorrow. Anthropic has not publicly confirmed a figure since its $47B run-rate disclosure. @jukan05 https://t.co/g7BZUNfRmV
When the GAO looked back at the ten most critical federal systems flagged for modernization in 2019, only three had crossed the finish line six years later.
The reason for a 70% failure rate, unfortunately, is that most modernization contracts reward maintenance over
Introducing Cursor Router, our intelligent model router that selects the right model for the task at hand.
Router delivers frontier-quality results at 60% lower cost. https://t.co/R0YABowFKg
Q2 was an amazing quarter, with our AI investments redefining what’s possible across every part of our business.
Alphabet revenue grew 24% YoY and Google Cloud accelerated to 82% growth. We saw exciting momentum across the board from Search to YouTube to the Gemini app (which https://t.co/n0ObklMtFR
Deep Dive: What Happens When AI Learns to Hack
In 2026, cybersecurity stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 3x.
At the same time, frontier AI is beginning to change both how cyberattacks are built and how organizations defend against them. This week, OpenAI https://t.co/S6xugkMRLV
Congratulations to the students who competed at the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) 2026. 👏
We put Nemotron 3 Ultra to the test to take on the same problems in the same time limit, with no internet or external tools.
The IMO team graded its solutions 30/42, above the https://t.co/duPTyjKKpM
Elon’s original vision of an open, American AI was right.
He could still flip Grok to open source which could be checkmate.
Why?
If you flip Grok open source, you necessarily move all margins out of the model layer and down into the infrastructure (chips + CSPs) and above to
We must NOT let our companies use these Chinese models to save a few bucks. OpenAI and Anthropic are correct. This is vital national security. Please read Bing West's just released Cat 5. I respect the Chinese people greatly but these companies are run by the PLA for heaven's
Anthropic reached a $1.5 billion settlement in a copyright case brought by a group of authors who accused it of misusing their books to train its Claude AI model, the largest known settlement of its kind https://t.co/LgIIIb8lSI https://t.co/p1Zj3WaIer
@chamath How is distillation any different than IP theft? Isn’t Kimi essentially shortcutting brute force training by piggybacking off of hard earned knowledge and IP? On top of that using subsidized Chinese power and compute? @chamath … This is the same as every Chinese play, steal IP
@cine_mck it is true that everyone has stolen and is stealing from everyone. making one form ok and another not ok is arbitrary. separately, preventing distillation will only really be possible with strict KYC
Tricking the US Government to protect frontier labs’ business model by using a China boogeyman is a mistake.
It is protecting the equity of 5,000 people who are investors in OAI and Ant at the sale of everyone else. This would be a terribly stupid decision.
Let the market
havent seen one person from OAI or Ant address Jon's argument here.
the point is simple: the USG does not owe either of the large labs a business model. if the economics of selling tokens don't work due to distillation/cheap clones/Chinese AI magick, the American enterprise and https://t.co/70IHrDOEmI
Chamath: Tokenmaxxing on the top frontier models is “a bridge to nowhere” and a “money-burning furnace”
@chamath reacting to Ramp CEO @eglyman on @CNBC saying:
-- Avg. token spend on @tryramp increased 21x over the last 12 months
-- So, the team built a tool for customers to https://t.co/hzFctb6aUe
SITUATION BREWING: The Trump administration is considering restricting cutting-edge Chinese AI models, with momentum reviving after the launch of Kimi K3, per Axios.
The leading AI has already forked into two options.
A: Closed source American that costs $26-56 per 1MM tokens.
B: Open weight Chinese that costs $0.50-1 per 1MM tokens.
If you force American companies to spend 50-100x more than their competitors abroad here is what will https://t.co/ZfE5EqD0Lx
There are two problems rn for crypto and, specifically, bitcoin bulls:
1) marginal liquidity would rather speculate in prediction markets and equity markets
2) marginal energy to mine BTC is worth 10-20x if reallocated to serving AI tokens
These changes feel structural but I
Thankfully I have numbers rather than opinions.
The average number of days per year in the U.S. reaching 95°F was ~18% lower during the 60-year period 1961 to 2020 compared to 1901 to 1960.
The number of days reaching 100°F and 105°F have also declined since 1895. https://t.co/qow7xwPH4u https://t.co/Jait831YHL
Based on internal evals:
▪️ Kimi K3 is top-tier at cybersecurity
There is chatter on X that Moonshot benchmark-overfit. These are stealth evals. Model has raw IQ.
▪️ Sol is a leap ahead in cyber capability
At a significantly higher cost, but quite remarkable still.
▪️ Fable https://t.co/tsXAN189cM
Enough of the attempted reg capture. The genie is already out of the bottle so let’s just get on with it and compete on the field. https://t.co/rlYgxi0uVC
What are the most cited reasons people have for opposing data centers in their area?
The top three are water use, energy use, and utility bills.
This suggests that the propaganda effort to worry people over nothingburgers has been successful! https://t.co/PZnOH2wLpR
On August 2 the EU's AI Act may begin enforcing its transparency rules, with fines reaching three percent of global revenue for the model providers and application developers who cannot show how their systems were built and trained and don’t properly disclose where AI exists.
am i the only one who doesn’t care about the odyssey & will maybe watch it on an airplane at some point in the future?
why are ppl standing in line for this?!?
@chamath Eventually open source models will be banned globally. Too many nefarious actors using it for crime, fraud, terrorism, etc. It will be a global undertaking much like nuclear weapons except countries don’t have monopoly control over the use like nuclear.
@chamath Grok is not open source and is cheaper, faster and better (now or soon) than open source models.
When you talk about open source you should say "open weights" or fully open source with data and training infrastructure (does not exist).
Chinese open source is just here to
The Odyssey begins by showing an African rapper with rasta in the role of a Greek poet. We Greeks are forced to watch our Greek history and culture being disgraced and mocked across the entire world. What is Nolan's real role in doing something like this instead of casting a https://t.co/07EIJdrGam
🚨 POD UP! The Core Four is BACK
The Besties discuss:
-- Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself?
-- Stripe Bids $53B for PayPal w/ Block and Advent ($PYPL)
-- The Death of Tokenmaxxing?
-- Apple Sues OpenAI ($AAPL)
-- Grok Build Data Leak ($SPCX)
-- The Datacenter Psyop, NY's https://t.co/mkduR7h0bW
Competition is an incredible force. Also surprised Anthropic not more aggressive here given recent reports of high gross margins and high operating margins. https://t.co/EVxJTbNKKJ
This is *exactly* what I predicted would happen. I said Chinese models would have advanced cyber capabilities within a matter of months and the only thing to do about it was to use AI-powered cyberdefense to protect our systems. Trying to gatekeep models doesn’t work. https://t.co/0ASJyTYgJq
The future is open source. We need to embrace it and get on with it.
Imagine if America closed the door on open source.
We would explicitly be forcing American companies to pay $26-56 per 1MM tokens for the same intelligence their adversaries/competitors around the world would https://t.co/AkIWsb2X3C
An interesting trend in forecasting where the world is going is by looking at SEC filings for the overuse of buzzwords. When buzzwords peak, the value of those terms usually deflate.
It is one of the cleanest examples of how corporate America rapidly changes its language in https://t.co/TZeEa68JCn
The Odyssey was totally fine. I don’t feel like the casting distracted from anything.
It wasn’t as good as Interstellar. Or Inception. Or The Prestige. Or Momento, Insomnia, Batman Begins, The Dark Knight, The Dark Knight Rises, Dunkirk, or even Oppenheimer.
But it was
Kimi K3 may be an important inflection point for AI. Potentially negative for Anthropic and OpenAI while being net positive for essentially every other company in the world. I mean that very literally. Although the real “Sputnik moment” would be an open-source frontier model that https://t.co/tdAkU4oRgo
From Anthropic’s Fable model on the economic, moral, ethical and legal opinion of distillation of Anthropic’s Fable model:
Whether it’s a moral problem is genuinely contested. The labs trained their models on the open internet — copyrighted books, articles, code — largely
The math ain’t mathing.
What this shows is that you can now spend $0.50 per 1MM leading edge tokens or spend $56 for those same 1MM tokens.
🤔 https://t.co/M04x6XxiX9
Anthropic: “Fable is an agentic coding superweapon, capable of developing cyber- and bio-weapons at unprecedented speed and scale. We cannot in good faith release it without guardrails.”
China: “lmao here’s Fable but open-source. Good fkn luck” https://t.co/UzqldfzAgN
“The answer is tens billions of dollars. How many clients or patients or customers do they serve? The answer is millions to tens of millions. How have they grown revenues and traction since that happened?”
“The SPAC was I didn't like the idea that two or three banks sat as the gatekeeper between companies that should be funded and exist and their ability to actually serve customers.”
“But I've talked to Paul Atkins about this. I'll post the hundreds of millions of dollars. Now it's a turnkey IPO. It's all my risk. If I find something I like, I'll just underwrite it.”
"I think you're starting to see a little bit of the wheels come off," says @chamath of AI spending & profits. https://t.co/wDmmlW9mCJ https://t.co/XRLhzQ6lcw
As usual, Demis is quite well reasoned and his framework is very reasonable.
Especially considering that the alternative seems to be the “Pull Up The Ladder Framework” from the other guys, I would suggest we adopt Demis’ version. https://t.co/b1EUbZbAkp
@chamath 8090 reverse‑engineered more than 18 million lines of COBOL and Assembly behind a healthcare billing engine into more than 300,000 plain‑English rules in 40 days. For context: migrating a major bank's COBOL system to modern code can take 10–15 years and cost billions. 40 days is
@chamath Is there a way for folks building healthcare products to use this today to understand reimbursement rules better? This Byzantine system is probably one of the strongest headwinds proven technologies face, resulting in delayed or even denied access for physicians and patients. All
The United States Medicare claims system:
18 million lines of Assembly and COBOL, 50 years of policy logic.
Working with CMS, our Enterprise team read the code and documented 100,000+ business rules in plain English using Software Factory, each traced to its exact source line. https://t.co/UhHJFBC25J
Here is the first case study of what 8090 can do.
Working with CMS, our Enterprise team decoded a 50yr, 18M repo of COBOL and Assembly that governs billions in healthcare payments. We documented 100,000+ business rules in plain English using Software Factory, each traced to its https://t.co/bOw33bVQnC
When we look back, Alex Karp may have initiated an important preference cascade around AI sovereignty.
It’s worth noting what @Benioff and @satyanadella are both saying:
Your knowledge, as a company, is your sovereignty. If you lose it to someone else (anyone else) you are https://t.co/MKfJXtW5oh
Got ZDR? 🚀 The currency of AI is trust. Since launching Agentforce Trust Layer with Zero Data Retention (ZDR) on June 12, 2023, we’ve drawn a hard line with our model suppliers: Your data is YOUR data — it is NOT our product or their product. 🛡️ We have never used customer data https://t.co/H5LcomY7dp
When we look back, Alex Karp may have initiated an important preference cascade around AI sovereignty.
It’s worth noting what @Benioff and @satyanadella are both saying:
Your knowledge, as a company, is your sovereignty. If you lose it to someone else (anyone else) you are https://t.co/MKfJXtW5oh
This @chamath video will be a master class in life/ buisness on what failure is or isn’t.
Because There is No Failure.
Must hear for everyone: https://t.co/UrEci1Xe4d
derek thompsons recent article inspired me to read more about alcohol
im shocked by the est impact vs current narrative
for instance, 7-14 drinks per wk reduces life expectancy by only 6 mos (!!)
moreover, the negative effect is possibly offset by gains from deeper friendships
Too many people are directionless, giving room for many forms of “ the answer” to their problems.
Go to the gym.
Don’t go to the gym.
Only do compound exercises.
Focus on HRV.
Only walk but with a vest.
Must sleep 8 hours.
Must not oversleep.
Must not under sleep.
No https://t.co/MPmQ9QpjFH
Starbucks spends $400 million a year on software. Yesterday they announced they're moving off IBM and Microsoft to build their own custom systems in-house.
IBM dropped 3% and Salesforce dropped 4% on the news.
And honestly this is, unequivocally, the biggest signal I've seen https://t.co/zcPkxhTl01
We started 8090 a few years ago on the belief this motion would become widespread. We’ve been surprised by how fast it has taken hold. That said, it’s still so early in this game.
Software license revenue is $1T annually. Services and T&M consulting around those licenses is $4T https://t.co/PuuZvqFOzp
@chamath Great to finally hear less hype but more honest observations like this. Its been my feeling for some time that we should not be tokenmaxxing, why should we get paid to spend tokens to get stuff done thats meant to be our jobs but keep our comp.
The only way this works is if
Chamath reveals his company's AI token costs are doubling every 45 days but productivity is only up 5%
"I sat down with my CTO today, I said how are we doing on token spend. And he said the most incredible thing, he said right now, our token costs are doubling every 45 days. I https://t.co/0Giet8U6gC
8090 works on production systems for large, often regulated, enterprises.
Vibing isn’t tolerated because these are the systems that run western society - banking, power, healthcare, insurance etc.
Over the last few quarters, the gains that we got from using frontier models https://t.co/otSrNurQ67
@dnapway I think people miss that the baseline here is that his employees were already using AI, but now they're just using more AI (multiple code reviews, auto-research, loops, etc) and getting very minimal returns.
Enterprises still measure an executive's importance by the size of the team they manage. But this is an old proxy for a world where more people was the only way to do more work.
This isn’t true anymore.
The leaders who will be most impactful over the next five years will be
Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath "Bro, there is no failure."
"That is what other people think of you to keep you down. There's no failure. If you were left on an island and it happened, you would just brush it off and move on. It's everybody else that you think is judging you. But https://t.co/pyPS0O33gD
Sources: Netflix executives are increasingly worried about declining engagement and are exploring adding live TV and bundling streaming services like Peacock (Wall Street Journal)
(Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)
One thing that has surprised me is that shorts of @theallinpod are growing very quickly. And overall usage ramp shows this kind of content driving a huge portion of our growth.
Bad news if your content format is 30-90mins. People love 1-2min. https://t.co/Caj1K6j7hP
If the monopoly —> duopoly —> oligopoly —> commodity cycle can happen in the most advanced areas of technology, in part accelerated by AI, what is the true value of “long term” cash flows?
Long term may not mean what it used to…
A new study from Smarsh and FTI Consulting, out this week, found that 55 percent of enterprises are actively deploying AI right now, but only 26 percent say their governance frameworks have kept pace with that deployment. 30 percent can actually detect the AI tools employees are
Have gotten a few inquiring minds - what happened to Nikesh? Why is he suddenly active on Twitter? I have to credit my friend @HarryStebbings for it. When we did the podcast he said podcasts allow you to take control of your own narrative, and so does X. "Nikesh - you should try
“What's real equality? It's when you are as smart as the smartest human. You are as capable as the richest human. You're as ingenious as the most connected human. That's possible today.”
“You would see people talking about the insanely apocalyptic characteristics of AI leading up to a model release, which usually was leading up to a fundraising.”
“What that allowed is any man, woman, and child, man or woman, any American, most important to actually access a share of Michael Dell's operating genius.”
Texas hit a July demand record and prices *peaked* at just $0.06/kWh.
Gas was flat because solar and batteries carried the entire peak. Tons of spare capacity.
New York needs to copy Texas. https://t.co/uYK8qbHCj1 https://t.co/beG1yun3iL
The marginal cost of energy is going to zero. This is bad for utilities and great for homeowners who have solar + storage.
It’s also great for businesses who feed this entire supply chain.
The amount of bottoms-up energy production from homeowners will shock people in its https://t.co/iDLfueZYy4
The end boss of tokens is enterprise ROI.
Nobody buys tokens for fun.
A Fortune 500 CEO buys line-of-sight to making more money or operating more efficiently, and whoever can give them that will win the category.
It's why everyone is now standing up consulting JVs, and it's
For those tracking the America closed source vs China open weight model debate:
In an initial pilot on modernizing an application from PHP to Next.js, Opus 4.8 with 8090’s Software Factory was simultaneously 1.4× cheaper and 1.5× faster than Opus 4.8 alone.
Pairing our
We’ve had every major open source models provider and CSP reach out to 8090 since the post below.
We will run a massive recursive optimization with the major open weight models (Chinese) AND American Open Source - starting with Nvidia’s Nemotron - and will publish the results. https://t.co/fZy6lVtsZH
My husband and I are honored and thrilled to participate in the Invest America program and gift a share of our SpaceX stock to a Trump Account for each of more than two million children across our great nation.
Every American child under 18 can benefit from having a Trump https://t.co/M6UJQ26Y6N
the trump accounts are not just an extremely cool 'nice to have,' but potentially the answer to the boomer's social security ponzi. I really hope democrats can abandon the TDS for however long it takes to educate their true believers about this opportunity. https://t.co/gLLDVmj3gP
If you can choose where to work, work somewhere that will help invest in your Trump account. $5k/yr will leave you with $13M at 55. Sorry, but that’s a huge amount of money.
If you have this choice but don’t want that because it’s called a “Trump Account”, you’re a retard. https://t.co/hIPdGGyKNM
.@chamath says Palantir CEO Alex Karp is " an incredible, smart, brilliant guy" who "completely nailed it and called out on its face the huge risk" of giving your company's alpha to OpenAI and Anthropic:
"If you are a reasonable company, why are you not finding an independent https://t.co/d28jg4fgx9 https://t.co/FEWvisHicD
To our Founding Fathers, thank you for creating heaven on earth 250 years ago.
America has given so many of us everything we have. I, personally, owe her everything in return.
Happy 4th! https://t.co/DQoxlPjmLZ
“What that means is that is the actual cost that you would borrow money at effectively. The problem is that half of large US companies now cannot deliver returns that exceed that.”
“The difficulty that Anthropic is going to face is that I think what Saks said is true, that they have lost this fundamental trust about being able to stay within their sandbox.”
“And then just ask your favorite AI, compare California on the spectrum of Florida versus Illinois. And what you'll find is California is even worse than Illinois in most of those comparisons.”
“Then we're gonna deal with a California bankruptcy in the next ten years. And it is unfortunately no. And it will unfortunately result in a complete restructuring of those debt and obligations.”
Much of the internet thinks:
> meat will remedy my autoimmune gastritis
> sunlight is the cure
> the culprit is the food I consume
These are unlikely.
The sunlight assessment is claiming low vitamin D levels are making my immune system misfire. My vitamin D has been https://t.co/kLABXZ1uXg
@bryan_johnson Question: assuming no allergies prevent it, have you done a bulletproof A/B test of
- vegan
- vegetarian
- pescatarian
- Mediterranean
- carnivore
- other?
To conclusively see which are best for you. To the extent you have, my apologies for not seeing it. To the extent you
Confession: I have been using Gmail's "Improve word choice" suggestions to edit nearly all of my writing. I will begin writing in Gmail and paste the text into a document/slack once I've finished editing it. It is weirdly very good. I did it with this post as well. https://t.co/mSOH93VSEQ
The federal government is currently trying to do something hard and right: collapsing more than 100 separate HR systems into one.
Civil servants and appointed leadership have wanted this for decades.
What stopped them was not willpower, executive mandate or talent but tech
Tesla is one of the smartest, cracked and most advanced engineering companies in the world.
If they actually did this, then it is likely verifiably true that a dollar above $200/week is waste. https://t.co/J5bsbHwuQ0
Coding is most of the LLM TAM, and half of that TAM is inefficiency. The models burn tokens generating garbage code and redoing it. Nothing else burns tokens like this. Deflate the waste away and there's not much left to sell, until physical robots. https://t.co/pv0l6w576z
TL;DR: Use a control plane, pick your model on a per task basis, do it massively cheaper as a result, keep your edge, don’t leak it to the frontier labs.
The thoughts below are exactly what we find in large enterprises that use 8090’s Software Factory control plane.
Our https://t.co/44m0ilstqG
The researchers getting rich off Anthropic secondaries are cheering for the thing that would make them ordinary employees again.
Right now they are paid like NBA free agents because they are the labs’ most visible moat. The frontier labs are struggling to hold a durable, ownable
Daniel Negreanu Wins Bracelet #8!
KidPoker does it!
@RealKidPoker takes down the $100,000 PLO High Roller for $2,257,718 and his eighth WSOP gold bracelet.
It also marks the biggest bracelet win of Negreanu’s legendary career. https://t.co/D6XJ1X3yUU
AI has reignited an old fear—that technology will eliminate work. In a new F&D piece, I argue that the outcomes will depend more on the policies that govern the adjustment than on AI as a technology (thread)
https://t.co/E5Qqd1Pcw8
It’s well within Anthropic’s rights to compete in any market they choose.
What’s funny, in this instance, are the number of Pharma companies, who through their unchecked use of Anthropic, are driving revenues into what they think is a model provider but is in fact a competitor https://t.co/nAmhdimbkw
Legacy Media types are calling this Alex Karp interview a “crash-out” so that’s your first clue that he is actually saying something extremely insightful. He is articulating what real “AI safety” looks like in the enterprise.
Not abstract alignment research or certification by a https://t.co/XsDcCrwclo
Part of what 8090 will be able to show, over time, is that companies powered by us generate return on capital employed (ROCE) that exceed their peers.
We help companies do this by encoding their "edge" into software that can recursively improve vs leaving it as tribal knowledge
I went a dinner a few weeks ago with a bunch of enterprise execs who told me "we will never use Chinese models." "Even if it's 100x cheaper?" "No, we care about safety and security."
1. They don't understand when they host open-source models with their own GPUs or US data
@chamath But what does it mean to “encode their own proprietary edge”?
For many software companies today, it seems their only edge is distribution and inertia.
@Yield_Finder Look at the discrete, custom systems that help meta, google, SpaceX be better than everyone else. This is possible for every company at some level.
@chamath Provocative thought.
Over time we’ll have concrete examples of potential “humans will do more” jobs and roles.
While the goal here is not to spoon feed the audience or be overly prescriptive, I sense most people have intense curiosity of the kind of careers or jobs or roles
@Compounds365 I don’t think so. unless our societal frame can pin liability on a model, it will always ladder up to a human and their signature somewhere.
@chamath “judgment is not the human moat anymore” is premature.
For now and the next 5–10+ years.
AI excels at pattern-matching and synthesis, not grounded high-stakes judgment
@chamath The value goes not only to asking the right questions, but also to executing in the real world. Getting your hands dirty. Doing the thing. Retardmaxxing.
@chamath Agree with much of this.
I’d add one final layer to the stack.
- Information became abundant.
- Intelligence is becoming abundant.
But enterprises don’t deploy intelligence.
They deploy decisions that have consequences.
This gap explains why very few ‘Pilots’ succeed or move
The GAO just reported that some of the Treasury's most critical systems still run on COBOL, kept alive by a workforce whose average age is now eligible for Social Security and, at the same time, is shrinking every year through retirement.
The modernization programs meant to fix
.@paulg said the best predictor of startup success at every stage is how fast a company ships new things
I've watched Etched build an entire inference rack in about 3 years (which is insane)
I've never seen a team execute this fast on something this hard
"You win by shipping. https://t.co/NeEkWx2Q07 https://t.co/30enpOvvEb
@patrick_oshag @paulg Any nuances in compiler we should know about? Does it just work?
What is perf/W?
Which fab is making it?
We need cheap/fast inference.
NEW: A partnership between NVIDIA and Corning will create 3,000 jobs with three new optic fiber facilities in North Carolina and Texas.
Corning's CEO argues that despite fears of AI replacing human jobs, the industry is actually creating more.
Here is a prompt I made especially for your case with our StrategiX LLM. You can use it as a skill for Claude Code or OpenAI Codex,
===
Run a full independent audit of our legacy-code modernization benchmark and produce a decision-grade validation package.
/goal
Make this https://t.co/PXLPgGGsVn
@chamath Would love to see any tangible breakdown of findings (usage, latency per task, code quality metrics, etc.). Not doubting it; want to dig into mechanics.
Even at 3× slower, the cost cut delivers ~5.5× better cost per unit time (or ~13.4× if you're comparing total spend for
For those tracking the America closed source vs China open weight model debate:
In an initial pilot on modernizing an application from PHP to Next.js, Opus 4.8 with 8090’s Software Factory was simultaneously 1.4× cheaper and 1.5× faster than Opus 4.8 alone.
Pairing our
“That makes the round feel less like a meme and more like a serious breakout candidate with a very high weirdness tax. It also puts 8090 in the same broad economic weather system as the cloud-landlord phase of AI: sooner or later, the glamorous layer cashes out into governance,
“That makes the round feel less like a meme and more like a serious breakout candidate with a very high weirdness tax. It also puts 8090 in the same broad economic weather system as the cloud-landlord phase of AI: sooner or later, the glamorous layer cashes out into governance,
@chamath This is the part buyers need to interrogate upfront: who benefits if the project keeps expanding? A shorter path can look risky only because it changes where the money flows.
Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome.
The business model of Systems Integrators is to bill by the hour. You should not be surprised, then, when your project takes three years or more and is never finished.
An 8090 Software Factory project that finishes in three
@chamath Congrats! Huge validation that enterprise software execution is becoming agentic.
The next layer every AI-native software factory will need is independent evidence: what agents actually did, whether outcomes were verified, what it cost, and whether execution stayed within
. @chamath Congrats on the new round!
Decided to figure out who is paying for your product and how you’ll reach ~$100M ARR
The audience here is CIOs and CTOs at regulated enterprises: healthcare, finance, and insurance companies running legacy software estates
Your customer https://t.co/r3Hpi4nfHn https://t.co/IDQIzoTmJX
Congrats bestie @chamath!
I believe in you my friend!
Chamath the CEO/Founder is building something amazing rn. Software Factory can help every company on the planet build faster, scale faster, and increase productivity (try it for free)
Go @8090solutions Chamath!
#POSITIVITY https://t.co/mifMN7s5ar
Announcing 8090’s $135M Series A, led by Salesforce Ventures.
Last September, @chamath pulled me into a mission that matched mine: bring AI to the hardest, most important problems in the industries that run the real economy, and actually ship real systems.
Nine months in, I https://t.co/l70Fem4ml7
Congrats to @chamath and team! Grateful to be a small part of their journey as an early @8090_Factory customer and can’t wait to see what’s next. https://t.co/2e9CaozsUx
@matthew_kruer @8090_Factory I really appreciate that you were one of the first to take a bet on us. We were very rough around the edges and still figuring things out then. We are still figuring it out but have a better sense of what to do now - in part because of the time spent with your team. Very thankful
CEO @CHAMATH IS MY FAVORITE TIMELINE 💫
EXCITED FOR @LAUNCH TO PARTICIPATE IN ALL ROUNDS TO DATE — AND HOPEFULLY ALL ROUNDS TO COME!
🫡 go #besties go https://t.co/MQqzjy2opW
@phact32 Why become a founder ceo at 48 vs sit comfortably from the board?Why pitch and raise from funds vs fund it myself?
Because the only path to convincing brilliant people to work with you is for them to see you walk the hard path. You cannot ask them to do what you are unwilling to
We raised a $135M Series A!
8090’s Series A was led by Salesforce Ventures and joined by WNDR, Craft Ventures, The Production Board, and LAUNCH.
We also had the support of a group of esteemed angels including Nikesh Arora, Cliff Robbins, Adam D’Angelo, Shyam Ravindran, Abhi https://t.co/ZGO5JDbzUW
On 8090's go to market:
We could have sold into easier, forgiving customers and posted a nice logo wall. Instead, we did the opposite.
We went straight at the hardest, most regulated buyers we could find: healthcare, insurance, life sciences, aerospace, energy, manufacturing,
@chamath @HooverInst Isn't killing innovation in California its purpose and it has already achieved some results. That said it must be thoroughly quashed to make sure that the virus does not spread out of California.
California’s Property Seizure Act - called “The Billionaire Tax” to fool voters is now on the ballot. @HooverInst has a short 4min video breaking it down.
https://t.co/ESY03QMzOS
You should vote for this if you are comfortable handing over 5%, in cash, of all your tangible and
The next AI data center may not be a data center.
Sky Fusion is turning qualified homes into secure, behind-the-meter inference nodes.
We're using @8090_Factory's Software Factory to accelerate our MVP with AI — building fast, minimizing technical debt, and designing for full
I am pretty convinced that there will be a path for distributed AI inference and this will create a novel way for folks who may not otherwise be in the AI economy to make money from it. https://t.co/q86ltgKaAV
“I was on Megyn Kelly yesterday, and I had this theory that I've been kind of working through. And I'll just share it with you guys because I'd love your reaction.”
“They're six months behind on the model, and they're twenty four months behind on the silicon, yet they're only a few months behind in total. So what game are we playing? This is insane.”
CHAMATH: “The world was hurtling towards a monocultural blob … The WTO, the WEF were stripping apart what made us all different … We are in a period where the pendulum is firmly going back into the other direction.” https://t.co/U8rzQ2OzXZ
“I can create this thing, this magical thing that will give you entirely all the expertise of all the great experts and thinkers in any domain that have come before you.”
“Now though, what you can say is design me a transistor, and you have a spec that you can now mail to somebody and they can actually tape that out for you and you can get back in the mail an actual functional thing.”
“What's real equality? It's when you are as smart as the smartest human. You are as capable as the richest human. You're as ingenious as the most connected human.”
“You would see people talking about the insanely apocalyptic characteristics of AI leading up to a model release, which usually was leading up to a fundraising.”
“I mean, they have completely fumbled it. I don't know the organization well enough, nor do I understand the political dynamics to understand why they failed as miserably as they have. But they've profoundly failed.”
💥 NEW: Investor and All-In Podcast co-host @chamath lets it rip with @danprimack on The Axios Show.
In the episode:
• What it's like to talk AI with Trump
• How Facebook "fumbled" its AI advantage
• The "blemish" on his record https://t.co/AdnVQimZcz
A demo can't tell you if a tool survives contact with your own codebase.
So we made Software Factory free for 30 days. Your team included, no charge until you renew.
Point it at a real repo and find out → https://t.co/xdV7h5kGoF https://t.co/LV83LsMrsY
Software Factory growth has been incredible. But one complaint has been that we haven’t included a free trial - this was not meaningful for large enterprises but it did impact the viability for smaller companies and teams to try it before committing.
We have a free trial now. https://t.co/cdD8n6gsyg
At a very hi level, free cashflow = operating cash flow - capex.
The hyperscalers are deep into an investment cycle so they are consuming their operating cash flow. It is incorrect to look at this and assume their FCF has collapsed because operating cash flow has collapsed.
It https://t.co/4xMvWFChQ8
Chamath’s Liquidity takeaways and reflections:
The state of private and public markets is changing. In recent decades, companies have stayed private longer while competitive advantage deepens with scale. Now, some of the most valuable private companies in the world are preparing https://t.co/FZHnVQ5rlv
Your best knowledge shouldn't live in one person's head.
Upload it to Software Factory once, and your AI and your whole team build from it forever.
Software Factory → https://t.co/WAGcJb1Fyt https://t.co/MnM28Eo89O
Companies should own their "edge". One way to do this is to use Software Factory to capture the expert and tribal knowledge that differentiates your company.
When you capture this knowledge into Software Factory, you can build software from it and keep it as the north star that https://t.co/rjNyoNx3gV
From 2011-2018, I was an institutional investor, managing my own capital alongside capital from some exceptional Limited Partners.
Even though I don’t manage outside capital any more, every quarter I still get on the phone with these LPs and update them.
I had the tremendous https://t.co/TtxIqwfwdj
Bain says it is using AI coding tools to recreate pieces of target companies' software, making hundreds of rough prototypes in recent years as due diligence (@rwmcmorrow / Financial Times)
(Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)
Do you think vibing the UI of Google search would even scratch the surface of helping you understand the complexity that sits beneath it?? For what important app would vibe coding a simulation help?
Just seems like yet another case of busy work masquerading as tokenmaxxing. https://t.co/qtPKhiPWpQ
Doomers have been wrong betting against human progress, productivity growth and screaming of job apocalypses of all kinds since time immemorial.
This time is no different.
Well, actually the only difference this time around is that a portion of the Doomers are also some of the https://t.co/zsygSXTYUa
@chamath @TheFlowHorse Sincere question: this seems like a big change in you, from focusing on high-end fashion to saying it doesn't matter.
What do you think changed in you?
What caused it?
LVMH the parent of Louis Vuitton, Dior, Fendi, Sephora and 70+ other luxury houses
Has now put up SIXTEEN consecutive quarters of de-accelerating growth
$LVMUY $LVMH $MC.PA https://t.co/LuS3SDlmOn
@DavidSacks Unsurprisingly, I am unable to replicate this analysis.. perhaps people who don’t understand how AI Memory work will be fooled — like Sacks and @chamath. I also wonder what Chamath discussed in that session before typing the prompt he screenshot.
“So when the deal gets done on a stock for stock basis, it's going to be again, if it's 60,000,000,000 in tomorrow dollars, effectively, Elon's gotten a 50% discount.”
“The list of trustworthy ones is conspicuously short, and it has a suspicious tendency to resolve towards people who reason the way I do operating under the rules I help design.”
How to build a requirement in Software Factory.
We gave our agent one vague line: "Let users reset their password from the login screen."
It returned 5 structured requirements, account-enumeration, rate-limit and token-expiry rules.
Try Software Factory's agent experience to https://t.co/Jo6vPM2UFL
There are many “simple” features that are more complicated than they look on the surface because of a cascade of dependencies.
For complex, enterprise systems, this is true of most features.
8090’s Software Factory is built to handle this flawlessly. We first help write https://t.co/BYsDdFlejU
This is an excellent essay in the NYT that highlights the unresolved question of why the makers of AI constantly whine and cry that the world will come to an end because of AI.
Hint: it won’t. https://t.co/gRxs5CWCyU
The honor of my working life thus far had been the team I recruited and led at Meta - three of them who are still there and have risen to become COO, CMO, CXO.
That is until now.
This is the best team I’ve ever recruited.
Based. Cracked. Humble. Wicked smart. Honorable.
BREAKING: GLM-5.2 is now 1st on Design Arena.
With an Elo of 1360, GLM-5.2 has jumped ahead of the now unavailable Claude Fable 5.
And it's open weights.
This is an improvement of 4 positions and 27 Elo points to achieve one of the highest Elo scores in our code categories https://t.co/7cYgVJwvXL
It may be overfit so it’s a bit early to declare any sort of victory but it is really good to see open-weight models catch up to the closed source labs so quickly after their latest releases.
With recursive RL, the delta in time between a closed source model and an equivalent https://t.co/KANvXP5FbT
Big week for Software Factory demos. Two live sessions, two chances to see the factory floor.
Tuesday 9am PT is sold out. Wednesday 1pm PT still has room. Grab a seat: https://t.co/JobEkSNMlr https://t.co/DcnHemkvAH
When Jimmy Carter purchased the teachers’ union’s endorsement in 1979 by establishing the Department of Education, the USA was #1 in education.
46 years and $4.1 trillion dollars later, the USA is #40. We are, however, #1 in cost per student.
SpaceX has exercised the option to acquire @cursor_ai in an all-stock transaction with the goal of building the world’s most useful AI models.
For the past few months, SpaceXAI has been jointly training a model with Cursor, which will be released in Cursor and Grok Build soon. https://t.co/X5mepgXgjJ
$60Billion.
This is the first, but not the last, big exit at the application layer of AI.
As product value accrues and accelerates upwards, the focus over the next few years will be firmly on the “control plane”:
What gives organizations who want to go all in on AI the https://t.co/uEXeyV13tj
This AI just exposed the BIGGEST legal insider trading operation in America.
A platform called GovGreed built a seven-layer machine learning system that cross-references every stock trade disclosed by every sitting politician against the bills their committees control, the https://t.co/4hoQGDhRZb
@ns123abc Dario wrote a public article stating that he created a nuclear weapon, or at least the ability to generate nuclear weapons as will, and was providing that free to everyone.
Keep in mind that relatively mundane things such as jet engine components and even things that aren’t jet
When your agents all touch your codebase at once, can you prove every change traces to something you approved?
Agent Tabs in 8090 Software Factory binds every agent to an approved Requirement. https://t.co/DHptBKumln
Control.
Consistency.
Governance.
Auditability.
All of these will become defining features soon…Software Factory has them ootb. https://t.co/ENP9scolyx
NEW: Inside the 24-hrs before WH slapped export controls on Anthropic
- Last Thursday, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy raised concerns about Fable jailbreak to Trump admin
- Friday AM, Sean Cairncross, Bessent, Susie etc. held WH call to discuss
- Then White House started reaching out
The CEOs of the Mags have each been in the seat for decades. Love them or hate them, they have had tons of reps dealing with every conceivable situation - and have had do it under withering public scrutiny. As a result, what you see is what you get. And what you get is that they https://t.co/0wpbxyRKLT
The frontier model problem is a breadth versus depth problem. Consumer needs breadth, the wider your aperture, the more relevant your model. Breadth suffers from a false positive problem, it ranges between 10-30%, with clever prompting and checks you can hit the lower end of the https://t.co/MKDoXNSaP8
Report: opponents blocked or delayed at least 75 US data center projects in Q1 2026 worth ~$130B; data center opposition groups doubled to 833 across 49 states (@akarl_smith / NBC News)
(Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)
Remember that 40% of protested data centers stop. This has been the trend for the past four years.
This portends poorly for supply. https://t.co/gF7K998TKn
@chamath Does this even slow down the frontier labs? Continuous self-improvement will happen behind the scenes regardless of public access.
Legislation will be the laggard. Once that's figured out, we'll probably get a few 10x models dumped on the public within weeks.
Game theory from here is super interesting:
Original Mags (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) now have a serious non-zero opportunity to tank the frontier labs.
Go to the government, kneecap the labs’ motion of putting the latest models out in the wild, become the trusted
@chamath You're assuming model parity, but the gap between the top lab and the rest isn't a linear difference-it's a moat. Diversifying into a mediocre model isn't hedging risk, it's just accepting lower performance.
I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true:
— As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable.
If a Treasurer of a Fortune 1000 company kept all of their cash in one bank they’d be fired for incompetence.
Similarly, if the leadership of a Fortune 1000 company bets the farm on only one frontier lab and their models you’re taking a lot of risk. This risk compounds as the https://t.co/cKkofo6xNz
LATE NIGHT DROP! 🚨
Big show. Core four are back.
-- Anthropic's Fable Backlash
-- Nationalizing AI, and the "Capitalist Cucks"
-- Inflation Heats Up
-- California’s Broken Election System
(0:00) Besties are back!
(0:19) Anthropic gets massive backlash over secret Fable https://t.co/GLwb29DRE4
@tylerpalmer There was lots when Jimmy and I created beast industries five years ago. He and Jeff have diversified and will get increasingly diverse over time.
completely lost in the news cycle of the day, but this is a great feat and jimmy and jeff housenbold (ceo of beast industries) deserves a lot of credit. jimmy has well more than 1B followers across all platforms and they are building disney 2.0 https://t.co/RDVpEEyXAI
So Crusoe did not pause the 1.8GW datacenter development at the request of a hyperscaler after all
“In reality, Crusoe is being pushed aside, people familiar with the situation said. The company tried and failed to lock in customers including Alphabet Inc.’s Google at the site, https://t.co/lcq2QqRr60 https://t.co/xcCO5LdoRn
Standing up a next-gen data center is no joke. While it may seem like the big boys will backstop you - they really won’t. And they have big expectations based on their history of execution - ie they are good at this so they expect the same from others.
If you can’t live up to https://t.co/iOPqsbkX7t
Pro tip:
off-B/S services teams are still working for the Labs and just building model lock-in undercover.
Ensure your orchestration layer is truly model agnostic! https://t.co/qz3TBCJmv2
Our Anthropic bill is about to jump from $400K → $1.4M/yr.
Not because usage exploded, but because we're about to cross 150 seats.
Past 150 seats you're forced into Enterprise tier. Seats stop including any usage, every token bills at standard API rates. At our current run
@meet_tie
engineering teams have replaced nearly $5B worth of market cap vendors in one shot with internal systems built using
@8090_Factory
It’s an unbelievable platform and a real looking glass into the future of agent-driven engineering.
@TheOneAndArjun
@chamath https://t.co/Dzx55PtsTr
This is awesome!
It’s great to see 8090’s Software Factory being used to unbundle incumbent ISVs!
$5B deprecated, $5T to go…
Thanks for sharing @jonathankopnick. https://t.co/XDRawTG0i7
BREAKING NEWS: Anthropic's latest model will NOT help you if it thinks your ML research/ML engineering is interesting, and/or will secretly degrade its IQ so that the average engineer won't notice. We are already seeing Anthropic's latest model's moderation filters our GPU https://t.co/9sa95cCSvS
At this point every CEO should be asking what their strategy is to avoid model lock-in.
If it isn’t clear what Anthropic is doing, it is:
- build something amazing
- decide who gets to use it after you prompt it if the prompt falls into areas they deem unacceptable by their https://t.co/q4bFYBsftH
LIQUIDITY: Dan Dreyfus on the Future of Critical Minerals
-- Copper as the next AI bottleneck
-- Investing in the commodity supercycle
-- Dollar debasement
-- Blue collar boom, rebuilding American infrastructure
(0:00) Dan Dreyfus Presents: The Future of Critical Minerals https://t.co/boYSnGJmGI
Software Factory - Version 0.40.0
Major Features
• Navigation & Layout Redesign:
A new left-side navigation consolidates project overview, modules, settings, and user controls. Breadcrumbs provide clear document context and project and organization selectors are always
Software Factory Demo filled up a week early, and we didn't want to turn anyone away.
So we're running it again the next day.
Wednesday June 17, 1pm PST. Same session.
Grab a seat: https://t.co/yhEQLhSr3e https://t.co/I3nztfrKuX
Today @Meta is proud to launch America’s Workforce Academy with our partners.
This program will provide paid training, certification and a job for Americans of all backgrounds to be part of building American leadership in the world.
Because we believe the Future is for
The empirical scorecard on AI thus far is very positive:
1) increases US GDP by 25-50%
2) is expanding our collective knowledge of science, math and physics
3) is up-leveling labor
Related to (3) above, this announcement from Meta is really amazing. If they can take a US median https://t.co/ez58joLL5d
boris cherny goes on a podcast every three months and says something like “i’ve stopped breathing now i just wrote a breath.md” and the next day everyone in sf stops breathing
LIQUIDITY: Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora
@nikesharora joins The Besties:
-- The Claude Mythos hype is real (found 5 years worth of bugs in 6 weeks)
-- Analytical SaaS is DEAD, infra software is undervalued
-- M&A playbook
-- Armchair CEO: Google first to $10T?
(0:00) https://t.co/pyFzKeCXsB
When the red line catches the blue line, if the cost of the blue products/companies don’t go down to be the same cost of the red products/companies, the red companies will win. https://t.co/dP2ycCX136
New MIT study. Code volume surges by 300%, but output increases by only 30%: The AI dividend meets an awkward reality
Autonomous AI coding agents raised commits by 180%, but releases rose only 30%.
The paper’s main idea is that software production has weak links, so faster https://t.co/t1PBjVZxH5 https://t.co/AJjqsYxeSN
@chamath this feels exactly like the early cloud era...
at first everyone just picked the easiest premium option and nobody cared because the bill was still small. then usage exploded, finance noticed, and suddenly governance became a product category. ai inference is going through the
@chamath The apples to apples comparison would be Deepseek to models of similar size and capability. The open models are not on the efficient frontier of price/capability once you benchmark against the most token intensive real-world tasks. https://t.co/mYd469hapb
@ArcanesValor Don’t be confused. These evals aren’t focused on “real world tasks”. That’s the fallacy.
Evals aren’t meant to do anything except normalize measurement - many of these evals can be esoteric and difficult vs valuable.
Quite a week for open-source AI. Especially American open-source. Nemotron 3 Ultra is the most important release in quite some time. And some really cool RL and fine-tuning work from Harvey. https://t.co/dK4h4GNTaK
Your margin is my opportunity: AI version…
The biggest surprise of 2026 is that the capability gap between the best open-weight/source models and the best closed models has narrowed much faster than the pricing gap. The pricing gap remains enormous while the capability gap is https://t.co/LjLgpR82S9
Capital investment cycles are not always extremely short - like they are in tech. In many non tech businesses, they can be extremely long and sneak up on you. And it can affect investor returns massively.
Look at Airbnb. I was curious to understand why the company was range
Chamath Palihapitiya: today's tech giants will look tiny in 10 years
"I think that this is the existential question that we are dealing with. You're going to have five or six companies, like whatever power you think has been concentrated up until now, I think we're going to look https://t.co/eReFkj2rJ2
LIQUIDITY: Dan Loeb on the Lost Art of Short Selling, and Why Stock Picking is Back
@DanielSLoeb1 joins the Besties on stage in Napa!
(0:00) Dan Loeb joins the Besties!
(0:34) Investor journey: From message boards to a multibillion dollar hedge fund
(3:15) Third Point's early https://t.co/nvh26xRoPc
Anthropic and Google are now paying @SpaceX a combined $2.17 billon per month for compute capacity. That's a revenue run rate of $26 billion per year. BIG MONEY. https://t.co/SeKwWKMIQi
Every platform raced to be the AI agent control plane this week: Snowflake CoCo, Microsoft Agent 365, NVIDIA's faster models.
Faster agents don't move the real blind spot: Your AI writes one repo at a time.
Your system is 100 repos, and the risk lives in the seams.
Try our https://t.co/eMCLDulps0
Control plane! Control plane! Control plane!
You will hear this term of art a lot going forward. Why?
Because in this next phase of AI, companies will want something to sit above the models. They will want control over their AI spend. They will want the flexibility to pick https://t.co/qYHFbhgLwg
The Besties + Chef Thomas Keller at The French Laundry
Thanks to the amazing team for an unforgettable night!
And thanks to @NYSE for making this possible! https://t.co/oi0i1iYKiu
Walking the floor with Thomas Keller was an experience of a lifetime. It’s amazing to see a 🐐 in action and deep in his element.
Very thankful. 🙏🏽🙏🏽 https://t.co/RsRNZxCuXP
We're opening up the factory floor. A live walkthrough of Software Factory, then open Q&A with Geno Oliva and the team.
June 16, 9a PT / 12p ET.
Register here: https://t.co/9kNSt6PV4X https://t.co/reYJhWSnPB
Pulled the trigger today and switched 100% of Lindy traffic to DeepSeek v4, churning from Anthropic models.
Saves us millions of $ and we're actually seeing an *increase* in performance on many core use cases. Transformative for the business.
If Chapter 1 was all about broad, open-ended experimentation, Chapter 2 may well be about realism and rationalizing the costs of Chapter 1 and what is sustainable moving forward. https://t.co/wbQRywvo40
Introducing Multi-Repository Indexing.
Our most highly requested feature update is here.
All your codebases all in one place.
Try it: https://t.co/y1OrzYp6Qa https://t.co/RaosoaVJYc
We just added multi-repo indexing.
Now all your projects can live inside of Software Factory.
Why would you want that?
Most large organizations have a complex application stack with tons of microservices - some are mono-repo, some services and products sit across repos. https://t.co/z2CY7CNjvT
I added ForkDs codebase to Software Factory.
My first hour in. Here are my thoughts.
Software Factory is the friction layer that platforms like Replit, Codex, and even Lovable left out for dopamine extraction. This slows your ass down to do the shit right.
@TheOneAndArjun
Chamath Palihapitiya explains why the social contract is collapsing:
"We're at the tail end of a cycle that doesn't work anymore, which is all about this tension between labor, people that do the work, and capital, the people that fund it and then make all the returns."
"Over https://t.co/ynpBpRkadY
AI writes 61% of the average enterprise codebase. 81% of leaders say it's causing more production incidents, not fewer.
Governance is now the hard part.
Software Factory's new Requirements Drift Detection flags code that's drifted from the spec.
We'd love your feedback.
You will be hearing a lot more about governance and a “control plane” for AI over the next few quarters.
This is what 8090 built Software Factory for.
Find out more at https://t.co/UAxNYUWgf0 https://t.co/QuzBgaJGdl
@chamath @Sommjoshua @chamath do you ever had a Hellas Greek beer?
I got family in Huntington beach running Greek beer and food distribution. I know theyre connected with some grape guys. If it peaks your interest hit me up.
@chamath @Sommjoshua Chamath, I like the concept. But is there anyway to show on the website what kinds of wine/wineries you guys are collecting/courting?
A year ago, I announced that I had gotten a California liquor license!
Why?
So @Sommjoshua could work with wineries to buy wine directly and bypass much of the middleman fuss and markup.
We had almost 50 Founding members join us with the goal of making sure that winemaking
AI doomerism exists, in part, because solutions to our most important problems still remain unsolved while examples of superficial process automation abound.
We’ve lost the script.
If AI wants to be celebrated, it should put solutions to some of society’s greatest problems at https://t.co/p9b9SsBhQ2
@chamath are execs actually willing to expose the messy reality of how decisions get made so a system can learn from it? most orgs have a transparency problem.. whoever solves the politics of making that knowledge observable will own more value than whoever ships the next 5% better model
@mert_0_0_ The short term question is legibility and gatekeeping. The medium and long term questions will be those of stewardship. Good companies with good legibility and little tribal knowledge will excel. The opposite will fail.
This is the actual bottleneck. The models are smart enough already. What is missing is the company-specific context locked in senior people heads. Whoever cracks knowledge extraction at the company level unlocks the rest.
As you work on this, please consider using GBrain as https://t.co/0F5uDQzPHu
Agreed!
This is what Software Factory helps enable - it organizes and creates the artifacts that guide all downstream productivity.
Increasingly we are finding that large enterprises want a control plane that organizes the tribal knowledge while also providing governance, https://t.co/8C0BIbGFM1
Bill Gurley: Anthropic Thinks It’s Building God
@Jason: It is the ultimate level of narcissism and delusion of grandeur to think you can create God.
@bgurley:
“Anthropic is a mystery to me. I've never, ever seen a company that is both leading their field and the most https://t.co/QUefFJOrsI
“At the top of the leaderboard, Opus four seven, GPT five five, Sonnet four six appear almost indistinguishable, separated by less than, in this case, you know, three tenths of a percentage point overall.”
“CEO asked for a billion in AI generated OpEx savings at the beginning of the year. So we're six months in. The team has spent $200,000,000 on tokens and with minimal results.”
“At the scale of what they're trying to do, those kinds of innovations are going to make the cost of model training so much cheaper that it's like, why would we stick to the $10,000,000,000 training runs when we can have the $10,000,000 training runs?”
POD UP! 🚨
Sacks is BACK...
and the legendary Bill Gurley fills in for Friedberg!
-- Pope Leo vs AI
-- Anthropic's Digital God
-- Open Source Under Attack?
-- The Great AI Jobs Debate
++ Much More!
(0:00) @bgurley joins the show!
(6:00) Making yourself valuable in the https://t.co/DlPRAWvY7A
Very amazing email to get:
“Hi JCal, Chamath,
55 days ago you two had a 4 minute conversation about EAs and Athena.
Since then we have:
closed $29M in new revenue 🤯
seen a -53% decrease in blended CaC, placed 683 Athena executive partners ❤️ 683 new jobs!!”
If you are
AI is making kids dumber.
It should be making them geniuses.
Introducing Koji, the first AI tutor that gets kids to actually think. 👇 https://t.co/tmCdVoEZYF
This is awesome. I’ve worked with Sue for more than a decade now. She started Brilliant - a learning site for advanced learning - which has now taken all of that decade-long training data and created a helper to make your kids smarter.
It doesn’t matter their level, this adapts https://t.co/CzPW4Vyda4
A controversial but rational tax policy would index taxes directly to the proportion each of labor and capital actually makes in relation to each other.
As one cohort “over earns” their taxes should naturally go up while the other’s should naturally go down.
Specifically https://t.co/oB7VmI5lpn
"If I'm happy with Claude and Codex, why would I need you?"
Someone asked us this week.
Software Factory is complementary with these tools.
Claude/Codex solve the single-player problem: one dev shipping faster in the IDE.
Software Factory solves the multi-player one.
Your https://t.co/DSEcIGPjT5
In a nutshell: “ Do we let the fox into the henhouse or not?”
As the frontier models continue to converge and asymptote, it will be increasingly valuable for enterprises to govern which models get used and in which ways and prevent lock-in.
Software Factory enables this for https://t.co/pL3TFXxLM5
If this is happening at a company as sophisticated as Amazon, it’s happening in many other places which then begs the question “What is the true run-rate revenue, ex-waste, at the frontier labs?” https://t.co/nAHcyOHnT5
This is increasingly true of the frontier models across a variety of evals.
Has anyone provided a good answer as to why?
“There is no single best model
At the top of the leaderboard, Opus 4.7, GPT-5.5, and Sonnet 4.6 appear almost indistinguishable, separated by less than 0.3 https://t.co/jzuEjvCVU5
Introducing Software Factory Unified Agent.
The Software Factory agent now operates across all modules in the assembly line, rather than one agent per module.
Users can move with fluidity retaining their conversation history at each step from requirements, to blueprints, to https://t.co/gqU1y2atVG
The next few weeks are jammed with upgrades to Software Factory. This week’s big news is the launch of a unified agent that operates persistently across all modules.
Multi-repo indexing lands next week!
Please give it a try: https://t.co/UAxNYUWgf0 https://t.co/OmcdFWmQ5k
This is what your SDLC looks like today: requirements in one doc, architecture in someone's head, code in Cursor, docs gone stale.
Watch Software Factory connect the chain so the spec and the shipped code stop drifting apart. https://t.co/rRFKBjj48v
This is what your SDLC looks like today: requirements in one doc, architecture in someone's head, code in Cursor, docs gone stale.
Watch Software Factory connect the chain so the spec and the shipped code stop drifting apart. https://t.co/U4pVdLtcOl
As a recap on my appearance, Eli Lilly is pursuing:
- A one-dose drug for preventing most heart disease
- A vaccine for chlamydia
- A vaccine for gonorrhea
- A vaccine for Epstein-Barr
- A drug that lets you stay awake longer and feel more rested
It's a golden age of pharma! https://t.co/o0hKkJw0jK https://t.co/lVwwBCiXCg
@chamath I’d argue the subscriber group creates more than pressure. Their non-overlapping needs give you two distinct usage streams, and the fast iteration from smaller teams and individuals naturally feeds back into sharpening the core for more complex enterprise work.
Eli Lilly has done it.
They've gone and made what seems to be a powerful, permanent gene therapy for LDL cholesterol.
That means they'll be able to effectively prevent most heart disease with a single infusion! https://t.co/vkiRyT1m4G
Tomorrow at @uwaterloo, we are coming to campus! Come join us to:
- Meet our engineering team in person
- See how we use @8090_factory internally to ship faster
- Learn about and apply for coop and full-time roles
@chamath will be attending virtually and hosting an exclusive
In 2026, residents of every major city should understand this simple truth:
Crime and squalor are choices.
Policies exist that can both be compassionate but put the rights and quality of life of the tax paying and law abiding above everything and everyone else.
It’s not as
Everyone is trying to claim me for their tribe. There’s no R next to my name, there’s no D next to my name. I’m not part of a political party, because I hate politicians. I’m just Spencer, husband to Heidi, father to Ryker and Gunner, and I’m a pissed off Angeleno who loves my https://t.co/pSQoSYrivV
ALL-IN POD IS LIVE! 🚨
Massive show
Gavin Baker (@GavinSBaker) subs in for Sacks to talk:
-- Andrej Karpathy Joining Anthropic: Impact on the AI Race?
-- SpaceX S-1 Breakdown: The $2T Case, Elon Web Services, Datacenters in Space
-- Nvidia’s Big Beat and Shock Selloff
-- https://t.co/kg8HsMT4pR
Most engineering leaders are past the honeymoon with AI coding IDEs.
They see how many tokens their agents burn.
The reason is rework.
The agent gets a vague prompt and a "make no mistakes" instruction, guesses at an architecture that isn't the one you run, and ships the
Microsoft pulling Claude is the first, but not the last. The issue isn't that the tool isn't useful.
The issue is that without context and oversight, the tool can spin forever and generates an enormous cost burden that, when cascaded across an entire employee population, makes https://t.co/PTZf0eHPfq
If that addict on your street were your own son, what would you do? That is the defining question that guides my 5 step plan to fix the homelessness problem in LA. We *must* end this evil racket of corrupt politicians and NGOs who profit off the misery of these poor souls. They https://t.co/9VGwwe6srh
Now that we have phase-3 results for retatrutide, it's time to revisit the question:
What would happen to obesity if we gave every obese (BMI 30+) person the drug for just one year?
Well, the obesity rate would fall by more than 80%! We'd be skinnier than the U.S. circa 1980! https://t.co/GjG4YhxFx3
I would direct you to the public filing for detailed disclosure about the Valor funds’ correct ownership in shares of SpaceX. While I’m a large partner in the funds, the majority of the gains go to our LPs. We’re deeply grateful for their belief in us and SpaceX beginning with https://t.co/SB9uLsamYl
Pharma companies are all about life saving drugs. But from the perspective of software, pharmaceutical companies manage and author a series of documents of ever-increasing complexity, accuracy and criticality.
Viewed in this way, the operating system for the pharma industry can https://t.co/EKXI8bjhyP
Thank you. The important part is zeroing out taxes on the bottom half. Best way to put money in someone’s pocket is to not take it out in the first place. Bottom half is only 3% of total tax revenue. But it’s very meaningful to that person. Zero it out. https://t.co/1Pniwn0tdd
Most engineering leaders are past the honeymoon with AI coding IDEs.
They see how many tokens their agents burn.
The reason is rework.
The agent gets a vague prompt and a "make no mistakes" instruction, guesses at an architecture that isn't the one you run, and ships the
Personal update: I've joined Anthropic. I think the next few years at the frontier of LLMs will be especially formative. I am very excited to join the team here and get back to R&D. I remain deeply passionate about education and plan to resume my work on it in time.
@chamath @maximor_ai I've never been known to be particularly emotional.
To your credit you've recently been a lot more right than wrong, I'll give you that.
The explosion of agentic AI and compute shortages are pushing up prices: Average LLM token costs are now $2.12/mil tokens,+12% this week alone and +65% since end of Feb. https://t.co/G5aOfahW3a
We are massively power constrained. This market, if functioning properly like every market before it, should be moving in the exact opposite direction. https://t.co/1IxtrEn4pF
Architecture docs die the moment code ships.
Code-to-Blueprint sync now catches the drift.
Every merged PR triggers an agent in Software Factory to compare the code to the architecture and leaves comments where they disagree.
Learn more about Software Factory: https://t.co/4HI7IRbydP
A cool feature of 8090’s Software Factory is our ability to bind critical artifacts together:
Requirements <—>
Blueprints <—>
Work Orders <—>
Code <—>
Tests / Evals
Make a change in any one place and our agent cascades it everywhere so artifacts are updated and stay in synch, https://t.co/f4veW8hyNb
I often disagree with @chamath but he’s right here down to almost every nuance. At @maximor_ai we believe our FDE-led enterprise, compound, platform motion automating across the finance and ops functions with every incremental customer leading to an agent and data flywheel is the https://t.co/X9OSuhRgeu
@clay_phi No, because I'm not a Chamath fan and I want to signal that lest someone mistake me for one. If he even sees it, Chamath won't care.. he's a big boy and he knows he's a polarizing figure.
@chamath This is not what "Monte Carlo simulation" is. This is AI overfitting. Just to make sure I wasn't being an idiot, I double-checked with ChatGPT. Chamath, maybe you should do the same? Maybe also hire a human to double-check your posts? https://t.co/YWNYq0aoUc
I took the first chart on fertility rate and then asked the following:
“Run a Monte Carlo simulation where you overlay various economic indicators on this chart of fertility. For example, GDP, GINI, cost of housing, middle class income growth etc. find the economic indicator https://t.co/ygEdmTZpxg
@_johnforte It would cause them to grow slightly less quickly but it’s much more sustainable long term than competing with every app while selling them tokens.
@GregMartinLive You’d think it would be an RL loop for model improvement but the general trend of model quality says this isn’t happening or isn’t as valuable as we’d thought since so many model are all converging.
In an early meeting at Facebook (c. 2007), when I was describing the goals of Facebook Platform (an area I oversaw) Bill Gates yelled at me/us.
His quote has stuck with me to this day:
“This isn’t a platform. A platform is where the collective sum of revenues of the https://t.co/tQo0q0utc4
The question we get the most with 8090 Enterprise engagements.
Who maintains it and what happens when the software needs to change?
Most custom software is built once and patched forever. Every change request becomes a six-week negotiation with a vendor who can no longer https://t.co/HZfodzTWnV
Our Enterprise business continues to grow.
We work hand in hand with Enterprises to design custom software, delivered as SaaS, maintained 24x7x365 and priced in ARR with deflationary economics over time and scale.
It’s only possible with 8090’s Software Factory. Ping us if https://t.co/FT0ZQrMZxq
Not only have conservatives become vanishingly rare in academia, so have centrists. That’s how complete the left’s dominance is: Even moderates are now a fringe group in academia.
https://t.co/3TCZW5YzIF https://t.co/FRXNwQPnqc
As diversity has disappeared from US Colleges, their ability to stay financially afloat has also began to disintegrate.
https://t.co/X6ftX7UMUN https://t.co/LBnE2pHxFF
@drantbradley The jig is up. The student loan racket has ran its course. 35 yr run. Not to bad. College was once for the best of the best. We dumbed it down. Invited everyone. And told millions of kids to borrow money to get a bullshit degree. What a joke
@chamath I would argue that there is no true plug-and-play AI solution at the complex enterprise level.
Any meaningful deployment still requires highly specialized and expensive FDEs to handle integrations and enterprise workflows at scale (in particular edge cases).
My bet is we are
@chamath The model is becoming less important than the routing layer... If you control where the work goes, which model gets used, what gets logged and how workflows improve, you still own the customer...
If the lab controls that, you’re just doing change management for your future
@signulll Enterprise is about relationships and big bets.
This won’t happen via FDEs alone. People who’ve built trust inside of Enterprises have a lot of value in this next phase.
Chamath just delivered the clearest diagnosis of what is happening to enterprise software and the OpenAI Deployment Company is the most damning piece of evidence he could have picked.
"The low end of the market is basically finished. There is no safe space."
90% of public SaaS https://t.co/2CwMuGfHbV
If you are running a consulting business and you are deploying Anthropic or OpenAI directly into your organization (I’m looking at you PwC and Accenture) you are letting the fox into the hen house.
OpenAI and Anthropic are openly funding and starting competitors to you while https://t.co/MYWEeSjnVD
Anthropic needs to solve the computer/power problem or they will be the Friendster of the AI era.
I just ran a semi-complicated stock screening prompt on all four major AIs: Grok, Gemini, ChatGPT and Claude.
The first three returned comparable results. Claude refused to do
🚨 POD UP! HAPPY FRIDAY!
Bestie Guestie Marc Benioff (@Benioff) fills in for Sacks
A LOT covered on this one:
-- Trump-Xi Summit: Trade, Taiwan, midterms impact
-- AI's impact on software: What thrives and what dies?
-- OpenAI could sue Apple over failed ChatGPT integration https://t.co/rHhJBsEH1x
A framework to understand how value accrues across the AI stack.
This is a blueprint for understanding what builds AI into its pragmatic parts: what each layer is, where it ends, and where value is accrued. So here’s how you can think about it:
1. Layer 1 - Infrastructure https://t.co/EJHwlvniev
🇺🇸 The U.S. is sending autonomous sea drones to sweep mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and the timing says everything.
The Strait carries roughly 20% of global oil traffic. One successful mining campaign and energy prices spike worldwide within hours.
The U.S. deploying this https://t.co/C5o1PlnmX6 https://t.co/JUx5oaLWgx
Social Capital, my investment vehicle, led the Series A in this company 13 years ago. It now does many dangerous jobs on behalf of the US Navy, including the one below.
We are also building kinetic capabilities courtesy of a partnership with Lockheed Martin into the latest https://t.co/vYZZaAk7ZC
@chamath It’s crazy that most comments aren’t saying to just use cowork on the Mac desktop app. Connect to a local folder with whatever assets you want to give it for context and let it cool. Keep adding whatever docs to the local folder as needed to expand context and let it cook more.
Use Claude they said.
Upload your decks the said.
Unleash all this productivity they said.
But apparently, I first need to start a new chat, delete some of the deck and not exceed the maximum image count…just like my existing brain. https://t.co/WC8OaGIxUn
Why would you let a competitor use the same software you do? That is at the crux of SaaS - it’s hard to differentiate yourself if your tools are the exact same as your competitors.
We are flipping this on its head. AI allows every company to build and use custom software - https://t.co/B36AoP0sRl
Copper is ripping. Chamath told you it would.
From All-In’s 2026 Prediction Show (Published Jan. 9th):
“I will pick copper (as the biggest business winner of 2026).
We are still completely underestimating how short we are, in terms of the global demand supply dynamics of a https://t.co/WPRTyDhx7a
@chamath And don't forget to add in accordance with all relevant government regulations, especially GDPR. The government is the best mentor you will ever get.
Key to winning:
Choose to be positive and grateful. Then, just keep at it. Time is the great compounder and will do the rest.
So many people just don’t have the discipline to stay positive and grateful. Then time compounds the bitterness instead.
@MaxTynan on the gap nobody else is solving.
AI coding tools are single-player by design. One developer, one repo, one prompt.
Enterprise software is a team sport.
Software Factory is the multiplayer layer. Work Orders run inside Cursor, VS Code, or Claude Code through MCP. https://t.co/9pG1RWU7cv
Software Factory is a multi-player control plane. Manage your agents, empower your colleagues.
It’s the new way for Enterprises to build new software or replace/migrate old software.
Try it here: https://t.co/UAxNYUWgf0 https://t.co/EYusJyuLJ7
Fruits & vegetables likely account for a majority of people's dietary microplastic and PFAS intake.
What’s frustrating is that this isn’t something you can just rinse off. In many cases, the contamination appears to be taken up into the food itself.
Organic may reduce some of https://t.co/bB31E333U5
Going to buy my first watch... the @Rolex speaks to me.
I need to learn how to buy a new one. Do you just go to the Rolex website or store?
educate me please https://t.co/V1NeOZKaxM https://t.co/gAOcmAa6aV
@dayonefoundry @ColinGardiner It’s the same. DPI comes from large outcomes which comes from impact which comes from important companies. Everything else is noise and effort. Both have very little value without outcomes.
@ColinGardiner The most useful ranking would be DPI by vintage and then ranking by the probability of a 1st quartile fund after a 1st quartile fund.
Some folks are consistently around the hoop and score. Others are totally random.
The criteria above would sniff it out.
Next time anyone with political ambitions agrees to an interview, they should also have their own cameras and record/tape the entire thing.
The agreement is then simple and obvious: the media has to tell the truth or you release the full version. https://t.co/mnbWr7rAyA
After CBS embarrassed Karen Bass by fact-checking her debate lies about the Palisades Fire, they clearly got the call. CBS filmed with me on my burned out lot for over an hour, and they turned it over to Karen Bass’ PR team to edit it into a comical 5 minute hit piece with clips
Context compounds.
How our 8090 Enterprise team leverages the power of Software Factory when delivering subsequent projects for the same client.
Check out systems we've built: https://t.co/uyjmGF1X63 https://t.co/z55EUh5d28
A non obvious learning of ours is that in our Enterprise engagements, subsequent projects at the same customer are meaningfully simpler and faster - even when the complexity that they need increases.
The reason is the knowledge graph that underpins the Software Factory.
It https://t.co/pM6TDqr2In
Spencer Pratt is coherent and reasonable.
If he becomes LA’s next mayor he will return that city to safety and greatness.
Please watch the entire debate and judge for yourself. https://t.co/sbicgR7dMm
We’ve agreed to a partnership with @SpaceX that will substantially increase our compute capacity.
This, along with our other recent compute deals, means that we’ve been able to increase our usage limits for Claude Code and the Claude API.
"Deeply powerful. But also deeply primitive."
The AI conversation has split into two camps that are both wrong.
Camp one: AI is magic. Six months from AGI. Build everything on top of it. The model will figure it out.
Camp two: It's a parlor trick. It hallucinates. It can't https://t.co/Jhtp0qhkAU
Very proud of the progress we’re making at 8090. It’s really starting to click and create value for many large enterprises.
While single AI use cases are great, if it’s not part of a broader, coherent AI strategy, it will create a repeat of the current issues in SaaS: vendor https://t.co/FATKgq1ZHY
“They have to go and get retirees to I swear to God, dude, this is a $100,000,000,000 a year company out of retirement to come into the office to explain what this COBOL code does.”
“He put out this very public forecast. You know, very smart guy, well regarded in business. And I think he said something like 30% of all white collar jobs will be gone by 2030.”
“They ran this experiment at Stanford where they take like a big bowl, fill it with water, and they drop in a mouse, and they measure how long it takes for the mouse to drown.”
NYT's @NickKristof to fellow progressives: "A black kid in Mississippi is 2.5 times as likely to be proficient in math & reading by 4th grade as a black kid in Calif. Do we need to look a little bit less at what the Trump Admin is doing ... & look a little more in the mirror?" https://t.co/I803loucRM
month 3: your Cursor rollout looks like a win.
month 9: your auditor asks about a payment retry rule that changed in March. the engineer who wrote the prompt is on PTO. the AI has no memory of why.
your AI is alone at the table.
The AI Single-Player Problem. https://t.co/L2WL4w5HoR
If your AI stack is single player, you’re driving into a brick wall.
Our Software Factory is collaborative and multi-player at every stage and by design.
As you build complex enterprise workflows, this is a P0. https://t.co/RaSzdUvJA1
It’s hard to understand what the other 39% are thinking.
Once you drive a Tesla, it’s like driving an all-seeing sensor with a super computer behind the scenes doing all the decision making, driving and navigation. Also, you never have to go to a gas station. https://t.co/yKcupCIoXP
This 100MW data center in UAE is the largest solar powered datacenter in the world. There are currently 1,300 data centers in the world that are bigger than this one, but this one is the largest solar powered one.
That’s 10 square kilometres of solar panels you can see.
The https://t.co/KRXdjdYDHw
@Object_Zero_ @gustaf What probability do you assign that an AI physics model, in the next 18 months, finds a new material that transcends silicon and changes the equation?
The preponderance of the evidence gets ever more preponderant: here's a meta-analysis of longitudinal studies, in JAMA.
Important finding for setting 16 as the age minimum: https://t.co/UZzLpbSeNz https://t.co/pVYOemcNLz
How much data did we need before we understood the harmful societal effects of smoking and implemented restrictions?
Actually, it was a lot.
A lot of data was needed because the cigarette companies wanted to milk their golden goose as long as possible. The cost of paying class https://t.co/iPMHgJU84W
@chamath I think, in part, it’s massively inflated because of bad incentives in big co’s
Everyone is getting screamed at to be “AI-forward” or they’ll be part of the next RIF
People burning tokens just to be at the top of a dashboard
Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the result
I’m really struggling to see how the back of the envelope math on this works out…
There are generously 4 million characterized “software workers” in America. That’s pretty broad and includes a lot of people who aren’t really classical engineers don’t produce that much code. https://t.co/xOv6wBHShv
Well, one fucked up and non obvious part of the answer could be that certain folks are paying massive amounts to them to distill the model via API. But the revenue is so worthwhile that they could stop it but instead allow it because it allows them to stay ahead in the funding https://t.co/RS8EfY8BSt
“The reason that these folks may miss a number or a forecast have nothing to do with demand. It is entirely 100% due to the supply of the power necessary to generate the output token.”
“They'll have all kinds of different vehicles and term loans and revolvers and all of this stuff. And so they're gonna look like this big bulky industrial business in five years.”
“Like, a trillion dollars a year going out of the hyperscalers. Where is it going? Just follow those dollars and buy those companies because those companies are already underpriced.”
🚨 POD UP!
-- OpenAI misses targets, but Codex gains on Claude
-- Elon vs Sam Altman trial, Brockman's diary
-- Why AI cybersecurity is the next major market
-- Hyperscalers show huge revenue and bigger Capex
-- Retatrutide and peptides go mainstream
(0:00) Bestie intros https://t.co/fw1A1eK59m
A durable medical equipment supplier had orders taking a week to clear. Manual entry, supplier handoffs, payer rules in spreadsheets.
We replaced the patchwork with one custom application built around their workflow. 85% of orders now run automatically.
The operations team
A good example of why it’s time to rewrite all of your enterprise software.
This specific company is a public, multi billion dollar revenue company who manages critical care for millions of patients.
Lots of regulations, lots of safety and care required. Vibe coding doesn’t https://t.co/sdajxTc8kO
I ran comms for Google during Oracle v. Google in 2012, tech's last big trial of the century. Watching Musk v. Altman has me flashing back hard.
Fifteen observations on the trial comms war so far, in no particular order:
The winner in all of this AI token spend isn’t:
1. More revenue growth
2. Less OpEx
It’s:
1. Leisure time - go home early, work on a side gig, play video games etc etc etc
My suspicion is that people are using blower token budgets to do their job in less time. Not so more
David Hammons is the most important artist in the world. The boundaries he pushed in his art both explored the past but also foretold the future. The best artists all seem to achieve this.
I had the chance to spend a morning with David in his Brooklyn studio in 2014 and he gave https://t.co/cMnskoiHl4
@chamath Money isn’t “flowing downhill,” it’s being redeployed.
Mag 7 FCF isn’t cratering—they’re front-loading capex to build the AI rails. Software prints cash, infra absorbs it… then prints even more. Not a reversal. A phase shift.
Money is starting to flow downhill - a critical observation for the next few years.
The Mags may make all the money but they are spending it faster than they can make it.
Their free cash flows are cratering.
Best to follow the money and see who’s getting it. In this case, https://t.co/j41PQHAXLZ
The moat in software used to be knowing the language.
Now it's having the idea.
Chamath at Stanford on the ultimate hack for AI.
50 seconds ↓ https://t.co/h5sJ7uYQO3
Software Factory helps people build their good ideas and refine their taste and judgement.
This is the long term human differentiator in the AI age. https://t.co/BZe47xxjY6
@chamath If AI is smarter than an average being across all categories then why will taste be any different, and why can't AI's taste be better than most humans?
Software Factory - Version 0.34.0
Release date: April 28, 2026
Major Features
• Blueprint Categories: Replaced legacy blueprint templates with a category-driven configuration following the C4 model. Projects can manage and create new blueprint categories for custom
🚨 ALL-IN INTERVIEW!
CA Governor Candidate Steve Hilton on Why California is Destroying Itself and How a Republican Can Win
@SteveHiltonx sits down with @chamath and @Jason to discuss:
-- Taxes: No tax under $100K and a 7.5% flat rate
-- Housing: Why CA homes cost 3x more to https://t.co/VoumpCNPzw
This is an excellent interview with Steve Hilton who is running for Governor of California.
DO NOT WATCH IT.
He explains why California leads in taxation, cost of living and poverty.
He explains why housing costs so much and why California is a legal cesspool that prevents https://t.co/sotDOG2asb
IN HONOR OF CALIFORNIA’S 175TH ANNIVERSARY, WE WILL BE ROLLING OUT A VERY SPECIAL DRIVER’S LICENSE FOR EVERY CALIFORNIAN THIS SUMMER! IT WILL FEATURE A HANDSOME, HIGH-QUALITY PHOTO OF ME, GAVIN C. NEWSOM. MANY PEOPLE ARE SAYING IT’S THE BEST LICENSE EVER MADE IN THE HISTORY OF https://t.co/svCAc9oNkw
Wow. Awesome. Thanks.
Please also raise my taxes and destroy my children’s education more than you already have so my family and I can stay impoverished, uneducated and in your indentured servitude while we carry your branding on us. https://t.co/oT6ckLKhP1
your company's most valuable asset is the one engineer who understands it.
and AI agents just made that person 10x more critical, not less.
cursor, copilot, claude code. these tools are only as good as the context you feed them. and in most enterprises the context lives in https://t.co/m381plzQVI
Counterintuitive take: AI makes people more important than ever.
While simple work may be automated, judgement and taste are still the sole domains of humans and will be for a long time.
Software Factory allows us to capture what we know into a Knowledge Graph that then helps https://t.co/vOggFj3Aqc
The missing layer in successful software development usually isn’t writing code faster but, rather, documenting the reasoning and shared context behind the decisions you made so everyone (including agents) can follow along.
Oftentimes, architectural choices live in slack
🚨 OpenAI is reportedly building a phone designed to replace the iPhone.
And it’s further along than anyone realized.
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the same man who predicted every major Apple product cycle for 20 years, just dropped this.
Important details:
1: OpenAI is partnering https://t.co/ExXtOAEA8p
This is the way.
The past 50 years of computing was about inventing form factors to interact with information. Retrieve information. Search for information. Edit information. Save information.
AI is about interacting with knowledge. It's completely different. Agents and models https://t.co/6bJVL2Pmev
As you go to work today and settle into the week, please study the form below. You will soon need to fill this out EVERY year and tell the government what you own and then allow them to tell you how much its worth.
That is the framework that is enabled by the Trojan Horse https://t.co/Wsr6pYBw8f
most enterprise software costs more to maintain per year than it cost to build. that's the entire business model of your current vendor.
every modernization project in the last decade has one of two outcomes. it goes 2-3x over budget and ships late. or it gets cancelled and the https://t.co/gdSzaZDq1V
the maintenance era is ending. the rewrite era is starting.
an insurer we worked with replaced an $8M/year legacy vendor with a purpose-built system. $21M saved over four years.
if we can hep, please ping us sales@8090.ai https://t.co/kmFTjPJYg2
Rippling crossing a billion in ARR and growing 78% year on year is the best argument against the SaaS is dead meme I've seen. When people say they hate the model what they really mean is they hate the lack of growth.
Rippling is growing because payroll is a market where the
@rodriscoll @garrytan This is impressive. The open question, for Rippling and everyone else however, will be the valuation when it goes public.
The pushback the public markets are making isn’t about a given company’s utility but more about how elements of the service can or cannot be slowly
every AI coding tool on the market is a single-player game.
cursor, copilot, claude code. they all make the individual developer faster at writing code. And they are brilliant at it. 2-5x individual velocity, sometimes more.
but software isn't a single-player game.
software is
Marc Benioff is the apex cloud founder. He and Salesforce have turned every previous technology wave to their advantage. Cloud, social, mobile, big data. I predict AI will be no different. https://t.co/ZTkD1TVguW
The Billionaire Tax is actually an Everyone Tax.
The Billionaire Tax is a new tax proposal written by four professors who don't believe in the American dream. Some of them aren’t even American…go figure.
Despite its name, it applies to every California resident who currently
On page twenty-six of “The Billionaire Tax” proposal in California, it explains how the state legislature can convert from a Billionaire Tax to an Everyone Tax without voter approval.
They can also adjust the tax to be a yearly tax, not just one time…again, without your https://t.co/NhoFQZqWSV
The Billionaire Tax is actually an Everyone Tax.
The Billionaire Tax is a new tax proposal written by four professors who don't believe in the American dream. Some of them aren’t even American…go figure.
Despite its name, it applies to every California resident who currently
SACKS: “We're really lucky that [Trump] is President … when this AI revolution is happening.”
JASON: “What would happen if Kamala ‘Ding Dong’ was in right now?”
SACKS: “We'd have no data centers, they'd be using AI to censor us, and they'd be promoting DEI values through AI.” https://t.co/G536UswlqK
POD UP! Core four is back 🚨
Big show:
-- SpaceX-Cursor deal, using compute as leverage
-- SaaS debt bomb coming to PE?, venture debt risk
-- Software bloodbath, buy low potential?
-- New Apple CEO: future of the company
-- SPLC indictment, major allegations, out of control https://t.co/gtKYMwGrID
Over the last few years, my team and I have written many Deep Dives - fundamental research that I use to learn, guide my thinking and refine my decision making. We started publishing these Deep Dives once per month. We now have a team and process that allows us to publish once https://t.co/FLSRlBUzkT
"Sightline tracks 710 data center projects in the pipeline. Through 2030, developers have announced 102.3GW of capacity, but only 40.8GW qualifies as derisked" @climatetech_vc https://t.co/9okEiMxhXR
Right now, because electricity prices keep going up, consumers have pinned this blame on AI Datacenters. This is unfair but there is no organized or concerted effort being put in to turn this tide.
As the perception of AI and Datacenters grow increasingly negative, homeowners https://t.co/4sCGcecxoe
Monopolies will tell you we can’t have competition because we’d duplicate transmission and waste money…
…and then they’ll spend 25x what it should cost. https://t.co/dYrPK3QNXB https://t.co/6CTRHgJB7f
President Trump asked the Hyperscalers to sign a Rate Payer Pledge a few months ago. It was a smart and good thing by all parties.
That said, electricity prices will keep going up.
Why?
A Utility has a unique business model that incentivizes them to invest more, each year, to https://t.co/5mPxwyFFpf
Switching from Claude Opus 4.7 to Codex GPT-5.5 is one keystroke. The prompts, evals, and checklists tuned for the old model are not.
Software Factory is the control plane: Requirements, Blueprints, Work Orders, Tests, & Feedback bound by the Knowledge Graph. Build once. Swaps
This is increasingly becoming a very useful feature for Enterprises as they a) decide to swap models because of cost b) decide to swap models because of one's ToS c) decide to swap models because of security d) decide to swap models because of capability etc etc etc
Being tied https://t.co/K6ndabzBLd
Nuclear will continue to go sideways while solar and wind continue to go parabolic. The reasons are a) technological and then b) NIMBY-ism and local regulation.
The critical question, as this continues for a while, is when the marginal cost of solar and wind becomes effectively https://t.co/nXjzgkoW2v
@chamath I sincerely look up to you and see no way this play works. How is anything 8090 is doing, on its current trajectory, not going to get run over by the SOTA models? I see next to no moat. The people within these companies will harness the power, so what is our actual “alpha”?
The idea of "one shotting" an app using AI is a fugazi.
If you had to describe my app and all the edge cases I have solved over the years, it would be a prompt the size of a small book, and my app isn't even that complicated.
The people promoting creating a business overnight https://t.co/LdKZo7nCvD
💯
The hype cycle will soon fade, the trough of disillusionment will set in and a lot of these magical promises will be undone as will the companies that have made them.
AI one-shotting is a good way to grow fast but it doesn’t magically make the negative gross margins that https://t.co/H66MqwlSwS
8090 is cranking.
Both seat licenses and enterprise deals are growing super quickly and we don’t have the GTM resources to manage either right now.
This is your shot.
We need young, hungry next-gen AEs to help us. You need to remake GTM in the age of AI and agents. Expect a https://t.co/A8VcBLcIFH
I think everyone in marketing/PR at an AI company (& especially at large model companies) should watch this short piece of advice from @dylan522p w/ @patrick_oshag. Just a few minutes. Crisp and to the point. https://t.co/huyZK750Gq
Re-introducing 8090...
Two ways to work with us:
→ [BUILD] Software Factory: the platform for consulting and technology businesses building software with AI agents. The documentation stays alive because the system keeps it alive (no one ever updates the PRD on their own).
→ https://t.co/hyRkboFCvh
Apparently enterprise software companies need good websites. Ours sucks and conversion showed it.
So we put a bunch of changes into an auto research loop and then shipped it.
New site is live. If you click, it worked!
https://t.co/UAxNYUWgf0 https://t.co/MuJauOG530
@trmcdonald if tract wanted to make real money, they'd vertically integrate and also be the csp. so kinda smart money for sure but not brilliant money...at least not yet.
@mikewchan if you have lots of money and want to only show audited returns, you need to wait for the accountants to approve the financials...thems the rules.
My 2025 Annual Letter is now out:
https://t.co/VXe1ekl0e2
Contents:
- Returns
- If AI kills terminal value, the future is worthless until it arrives
- If the US and China own frontier AI, what happens to others?
- The surest AI bottleneck is physical
- Trust-busting Big Tech https://t.co/aCfkNsS9GB
@chamath So given this, isn't Space easily the best place to be?
And the one with the greatest access to Space will be the one with the most leverage?
AKA SpaceX?
@farzyness It’s not that simple. Space is an entire new world relative to what we know here on the ground. The number of people who know space is in the hundreds/thousands.
The number of people who can build DCs on earth is in the hundreds of thousands.
The game theory in AI has shifted. Having a leading foundational model is important but increasingly it is the zoning approved, powered land that is the gating bottleneck. Add turnkey access to silicon and it’s checkmate.
If you have that, you have immense negotiating leverage
Software Factory - Version 0.33.0
Release date: April 20, 2026
Major Features
• New Work Order Fields: Added a custom labels field and a priority field that can be grouped-by and sorted on. Improved work order sorting via drag-and-drop and sorting controls in Display
Last few weeks of updates have largely been focused on stability and reliability...had peak usage last few weeks.
We are adding some exciting features over the next few months...
Try it here: https://t.co/UAxNYUWgf0 https://t.co/PHzW1gQKsB
@chamath The no org chart thing sounds chaotic in theory but probably filters for people who actually ship instead of those who just schedule meetings about shipping.
$8M/year to a vendor who couldn't explain their own system.
$21M saved in four years after replacing it with a purpose-built application.
the client owns the business logic. we own the technology. every requirement captured in plain english before a single line of code was
This is the future we are building at 8090. Our Software Factory is giving the companies that adopt it a new way to think about software.
Build v buy was never as simple as it sounded. If you build you have complex maintenance issues. If you buy, you also generally double or https://t.co/r8oXQJGEkU
@Maggie1728Q Crazy story - Stanford makes them rent a bigger room (vs get one for free) but also doesn’t allow folks like me to just pay for the bigger room or donate directly to the club. Dumb.
Spoke at the AI club at Stanford last night. 1000 people tried to attend. Seating was capped at 250.
It was pandemonium at the end! If you’re a resilient, gritty engineer, PM, designer or GTM person, please consider working with us:
- We have no org chart - everyone reports to https://t.co/cRyHrAJagN
Who can relate when married to an engineer: I stopped asking for help when the TV breaks because he starts at the top-left of the menu and methodically tests every single option in order, philosophically opposed to the concept of “most likely culprit.” He will not skip. He will
🦔An internal Amazon document obtained by Business Insider reveals that AI is making the company's existing tool duplication problem significantly worse. Teams are spinning up AI-powered applications so quickly that overlapping systems are proliferating faster than they can be https://t.co/ggOl9rUftM
Told you.
At 8090, we’re actually helping organizations (large and small) implement their AI transformation methodically and in a disciplined way that a) doesn’t leak all their data into model training and b) doesn’t just blow their OpEx budget to the benefit of yet another https://t.co/D6ckwhJ05b
prediction from @chamath :
95% of enterprise software running in production today will be rewritten in the next 3 years.
AI made rewriting cheaper than maintaining.
for 30 years the ROI on rebuilding software was brutal. a 7-figure build. a 2-year timeline. 60% chance of https://t.co/gIZ6fJ3XGg
Facts.
The fastest growing part of 8090 is our practice of ripping out legacy systems for large enterprises and migrating them to pristine, new, well documented and easy to maintain alternatives.
It also turns out to be less than 50% of the TCO or better as well. https://t.co/aJ6yOamCmU
Spending more while getting less is usually a good sign of corruption, fraud, waste and incompetence.
Our education system in California is profoundly broken. https://t.co/fj6xX2iDi7
Anthropic decidió dar de baja a toda nuestra organización por una supuesta infracción de sus condiciones de uso. Qué política específica infringimos no tengo ni la menor idea: simplemente recibimos un mail y listo, adiós Claude. Si querés apelar la medida hay que completar un https://t.co/L3E6hPDeht
A critical feature of Software Factory is that we abstract the models so that you can use your preferred model for things like code assembly BUT you can also change as you need.
As it turns out, that last point really matters. If AI is the new electricity then it shouldn’t be https://t.co/3kxSUjJP5s
“I don't know if you guys saw recently, but Jane Street did billion dollar investment in, essentially, a neos neoscaler and then also did a $6,000,000,000 compute deal with them.”
“A town approves a $6,000,000,000 data center build, and then half the the the board gets ousted. Just voted out overnight so that they could put in new people to undo the decision.”
“So I think the reason why Allbirds went crazy is a very, very small canary in a very important coal mine, which is we are absolutely compute constrained.”
@abra55513382 I think CSPs are the next big disruption target. Distributed compute in a world of AI seems like an obvious outcome. We’re just waiting for its “Hello world” moment so we know it is possible.
I think CSPs, neoscalers and hyperscalers are a big class to be disrupted as the population realizes that a) AI is too powerful to be gatekept by a handful of model makers and b) that energy, permitting and construction isn’t actually a moat. https://t.co/j9vxeeiQY0
@chamath Technology has become too broad of a term, CSPs have a genuine moat in terms of scale and datacenter capacity. Saas companies are a different story.
@abra55513382 I think CSPs are the next big disruption target. Distributed compute in a world of AI seems like an obvious outcome. We’re just waiting for its “Hello world” moment so we know it is possible.
Welcome Salesforce Headless 360: No Browser Required! Our API is the UI. Entire Salesforce & Agentforce & Slack platforms are now exposed as APIs, MCP, & CLI. All AI agents can access data, workflows, and tasks directly in Slack, Voice, or anywhere else with Salesforce Headless
The antidote to slop and entropy is giving an agent symbolic context that is language, hardware and database independent. A lot of that valuable content is in Slack.
This is great. https://t.co/ivwRP5i4dW
Welcome Salesforce Headless 360: No Browser Required! Our API is the UI. Entire Salesforce & Agentforce & Slack platforms are now exposed as APIs, MCP, & CLI. All AI agents can access data, workflows, and tasks directly in Slack, Voice, or anywhere else with Salesforce Headless
It’s time to expose a huge scam in AI startups: Contracted ARR
The reason many AI startups are crushing revenue records is because they are using a dishonest metric
The biggest funds in the world are supporting this and misleading journalists for PR coverage.
The setup: https://t.co/NQ0qFSntsJ
If AI lives up to the hype, it will erode the traditional long term moats of technology companies. As a result, no one with a brain wants to pay for cashflows far in the future.
These multiples cannot come back unless AI turns out to be a toy. https://t.co/FtECAkA4ta
1/ I’ve spent most of the last few weeks since the Google, Caltech papers to think about tradable implications around quantum computing and crypto
specifically what happens to the market around q-day https://t.co/nNBuMjwU9x
As discussed on @theallinpod a few weeks ago…this risk is real and, imo, q-day gets pulled in closer in time with every major model breakthrough. https://t.co/5Xr5mRBwTO
This is really accurate.
As much as we all want to drink the vibe coding kool-aid, the reality is that 90%+ of all code in a company is maintaining and migrating existing stuff that is complicated and messy. You can definitely vibe code the remaining 10% but unless there is a https://t.co/EGghawwsp8
Every time I see a tweet saying “I can vibe code this in a weekend” - I think of the slack notification system..
It takes time, persistence and effort to get the details right.
Sure, a lot of simple workflows will get vibe coded away. And maybe you can put this in Claude Code https://t.co/Pa8AGZKW83
This is really accurate.
As much as we all want to drink the vibe coding kool-aid, the reality is that 90%+ of all code in a company is maintaining and migrating existing stuff that is complicated and messy. You can definitely vibe code the remaining 10% but unless there is a https://t.co/EGghawwsp8
to add 100x data center compute in the US, we need a 225% increase in grid capacity, at which point data centers will be consuming 55%-60% of all grid capacity
watch big tech eclipse the existing american power companies with their own dedicated power plants, nuclear ones too
@1a1n1d1y 20 years from now (aka nuclear) is too late. Don’t underestimate an average citizens ability to convince their peers to vote no to one of the myriad permits needed at the local council level…
California is trying to pass a bill that would criminalize investigative journalism with misdemeanors, $10,000 fines, imprisonment, and content takedown.
The proposed bill is titled AB 2624 and was made after I exposed mass fraud by immigrant groups in America.
Under AB 2624, https://t.co/4p0SjO7hOZ
Join us on Monday for our next Speaker Series with legendary Silicon Valley entrepreneur @chamath!
Register for the event and submit questions for Chamath here: https://t.co/e8gIbtefR2 https://t.co/ygZf12RjBr
Heading back to Stanford next Monday to talk with the AI Club about building real companies in this new era.
If you're a strong software engineer who wants to ship high-quality enterprise software at a completely different pace, we’re hiring at @8090Solutions right now. Please, https://t.co/kewPSThfzD
Our Head of Product John Calzaretta walks through the full Software Factory platform live: Refinery, Foundry, Planner, Validator, Knowledge Graph, MCP integration with Cursor, Claude Code, and others. Live Q&A included.
Full demo: https://t.co/jQns1Gqrwn
https://t.co/y1OrzYpEFI
Here is a very detailed walkthru of Software Factory. This is best suited for PMs and Engineers who want to start tinkering with a potential new control plane for how software is made...
...we've made a lot of inroads into establishing this pattern into large Enterprises. https://t.co/T7MzoJGAtL
🚨 UPSET ALERT: Tech entrepreneur Ethan Agarwal has surged to a 60% chance to advance from the CA-17 primary on Polymarket. 📈
Silicon Valley is revolting against Ro Khanna over his "wealth tax" stance, and the outsider momentum is real.
Is Ro Khanna in trouble? 👇
#Polymarket
Uber's CTO told @LauraBratton5 that AI coding tools—particularly Anthropic’s Claude Code—has already maxed out its 2026 AI budget 📈
“I'm back to the drawing board, because the budget I thought I would need is blown away already,” Neppalli Naga said.
https://t.co/4JIBfqUO7V
ummm so tokenmaxxing didn't increase operating margins?!?!?
of course it didn't. its just that the cto of uber had the courage to say the quiet part out loud. https://t.co/GZE6Zer40m
I struggle to see a transient explanation - meaning some temporal reason that won’t be here at some point soon.
I think AI is causing a structural reset to how risky assets are priced.
A digital super-god means both that you can disrupt someone else but that, in short order, https://t.co/CdXz8nVzxV
The Swalwell saga perfectly shows how politics really works in America. They’ve had this dirt on him for years and sat on it until he stepped out of line. It explains why no matter who you vote for, you get the same results.
One nation under blackmail.
@chamath It is a fantastic tool, @chamath for guiding thinking about building out a feature set.
Needs major work, though, on helping keep track of which documents the AI edited and have pending changes that still need review/approval. Tedious to figure out which docs need edits and it
For me, this is simple: everyone deserves quality, affordable health care. And we can cut the fraud and hold the bad actors accountable to pay for it. https://t.co/YSzyNFInxu
The Democratic establishment probably hates Matt Mahan:
1) he’s a competent mayor
2) he’s against waste and fraud
3) he is against asset taxes
4) he actually reduced homelessness vs fund the grift machine
5) they don’t have kompromat on him like they did Swalwell
He and Steve https://t.co/it5xJOnHqh
This is what building software looks like when your documentation writes itself through the Knowledge Graph.
Watch the full build story here: https://t.co/FXrBQsOc4J
This week’s @theallinpod is a masterclass in why the pod continues to define the AI zeitgeist and narrative.
The Anthropic deep dive — Mythos drama, the explosive $30B run rate, OpenClaw pushback, and that unmistakable vibe shift — was absolutely brilliant. Sharp, timely, and https://t.co/pVAoS2yV72
@chamath Pro AI here. But it's certainly become a tough thing to sell when 80% of the SWE I know have lost their jobs in the past year due to companies downsizing headcounts in preference of more AI.
Hard to determine if it's more the macro environment or AI disruption.
I think AI has also become the “plausible deniability” to streamline organizations that grew amok during the past two decades.
I see more orgs simply recalibrating. The AI use is hi on an individual level in some places but by no means has the overall productivity skyrocketed. https://t.co/QJeTHtd0Xo
Chamath: Anthropic's Mythos Warning Is Theater
@Jason:
“Chamath, is it the Boy who Cried Wolf, or is this the real deal now?”
@Chamath:
“I think it's mostly theater.
In February of 2019 when Dario was still at OpenAI, they did the same thing with GPT-2. That was a 1.5 https://t.co/Q1sf9D9dIM
Creating fear porn and crying wolf does not serve the AI industry well.
Maybe Anthropic actually believed what they were selling, in which case the naivety, if you can charitably call it that, is astounding.
At a minimum, they need a few circumspect adults in the room that https://t.co/pt9IvzfbI7
@theallinpod @Jason @chamath I like chamath, I listen closely but I also have a certain amount of pattern recognition that he will never fail to dismiss the consensus because it gives him a deep satisfaction to feel like a sort of modern sage...
@wha1n0w @theallinpod @Jason This is sometimes very true. But in this case, I was right and many, over the weekend, have largely dispelled Mythos as an excellent model but simply that, an excellent model. The fear mongering was theater…
If the leadership in the AI movement doesn’t step up quickly, organize around the right “go to market” and create incentives to align everyone, this will be a generational fumble.
It is, sadly, happening before our eyes. https://t.co/DS7cKen5xf
@zerohedge Its so ass. Like sure claude is good and all that but i don’t need it to generate a 12 page analysis with documentations and steps and a whole bunch of paragraphs everytime i ask it a simple question like jeez, chill out bro. I just want to go back to simple google searches. Not
Generating useless tokens and giving half answers IS THE FEATURE (see most recent trend on hallucinations).
This is so you need to keep prompting it, thereby using more tokens and consuming just enough time as to not use other ways of getting to the answer. https://t.co/nl7PeFMsPj
@chamath What if homes & travel are part of what you see as your legacy and achievements. At 95, when you look back - you want to be proud of what you achieved for the world, but also for yourself and your family?
@WesternLuck @chamath You completely missed the point of this post. He was able to branch out to politics BECAUSE he simplified his life (no extravagant homes to keep up with, etc). You proved his post for him, ironically.
@chamath I didn't wait for success in terms you would recognize. I own almost nothing and I'm aiming for less. One suitcase, one cabin bag. Clothing for all climates. Health and enough wealth to manage any surprises and not have to check the bill. Win.
@chamath I'll buy here for a swing trade but 2 reasons I'm not holding IGV long term:
Agentic AI and Jevons paradox
there are good names in there however that won't be affect by agentic AI that can easily 2-4x, dyor
When your working life rewards you, it’s easy to ratchet up the complexity: homes, cars, travel, possessions etc.
I have found that all that complexity comes at the sake of your most fleeting asset: your time. Instead of building things, all of a sudden you’re dealing with
You have two choices:
1. This is the beginning of the end of the AI replacement cycle. Everything up until now was false alarms and mis/disinformation. You can start to scale back into these companies because, once the noise subsides, these companies are durable and will be https://t.co/kWUYoV5ESe
Not usually a Meta AI user, but wanted to give them a shot after the latest model release (it's free anyway).
So I installed the app on my desktop, and noticed "contemplating" mode (didn't see that on the mobile app btw). When I asked a question, 16 agents simultaneously started https://t.co/YmUJ31U5Xq
@chamath Do you think this also impacts later stages startups that are still private, so not quite as constrained on adjustments to FCF, etc. they can make, but are looking ahead to going public?
Thinking of OAI, Stripe, Anduril, etc.
This isn’t just a $META issue. It’s increasingly an issue for all of Tech. Because even within Tech, there is an emerging divide between AI-superpowered engineer/PM/sales folks and everyone else.
And we know how that will end: Smaller orgs, bigger payoffs but then the riches https://t.co/7Hw21pSoqp
I'm excited to share that my book, Life at the Speed of Play, will be out in June. I've spent the last 5 years writing so I can share my lessons and stories around building products and scaling companies. https://t.co/j1Cs8lyLTu
“In February 2019, when Dario was still at OpenAI, they did the same thing with GPT two. That was a 1,500,000,000 parameter model, which sounds like a total fart in the wind in 2026.”
“And I suspect when you enumerate the number of lines that that represents, it's hundreds of trillions of lines of just pretty marginal mediocre code to bad code.”
🚨BIG EPISODE BESTIES!
Sacks is back, Fifth Bestie Brad Gerstner fills in for @Friedberg
-- Anthropic withholds Mythos: serious concern or another marketing stunt?
-- OpenClaw vs everybody: Are frontier model makers trying to kill the open source agent platform?
-- https://t.co/5RUASNYYGc
It’s just so awesome to make things that people find useful.
This is a great testimonial for 8090’s Software Factory. I’m so excited for the next few months - tons of stuff coming…
Please try it!
https://t.co/UAxNYUWgf0 https://t.co/FSFbYVJwlR
The Big Rug
Gooning is well covered in the Doom thesis. Elon's "Imagine" is digital crack cocaine being given out for free. So that's in progress. But, GPT5 shows us that enterprise / tool calls is where companies are converging
This mirrors the rest of the economy. Consumer https://t.co/ec1WLkwVvC
This is a long but important article that brings up a lot of points worth considering.
One antidote to the bear case painted below is that by documenting your expert and tribal knowledge in the right agent harness, you control the agents vs the other way around.
The big risk https://t.co/A2vkZlWKVx
It's only a matter of time before only the model creators have access to the most powerful models. The rest get access to smaller, distilled versions. Or access the models through first party apps and services that don't provide direct access to the token path.
The investment
If Martin is right, he also just wrote the product spec for open source + distributed compute where broad swaths of groups, individuals and organizations contribute their compute resources to training runs for large param open source models.
There are lots of issues in figuring https://t.co/4Zm0wp5U3l
AI is stripping companies down to three key elements:
1) Expert Knowledge - this is the vertical specific understanding of what to do
2) Tribal Knowledge - this is knowledge of the fuzzy grey details that are poorly document and is what creates a dispersion in performance in
AI is stripping companies down to three key elements:
1) Expert Knowledge - this is the vertical specific understanding of what to do
2) Tribal Knowledge - this is knowledge of the fuzzy grey details that are poorly document and is what creates a dispersion in performance in
Nancy Pelosi take a seat.
There is a new king in town when it comes to Congress members being abnormally good traders.
Ro Khanna has DESTROYED the S&P 500 since January 2024.
Read the full analysis: https://t.co/3MVvAlAmf4 https://t.co/hDSw1YkxYJ
The sad thing is that Ro is the guy preaching for socialism while he is the most active insider trader in Congress.
He is a terrible representative of Silicon Valley. https://t.co/m6Bgqfxywx
1/ today we're releasing muse spark, the first model from MSL. nine months ago we rebuilt our ai stack from scratch. new infrastructure, new architecture, new data pipelines. muse spark is the result of that work, and now it powers meta ai. 🧵 https://t.co/fThDXdsxwB
Manufacturing has SOPs, manuals, and systems.
Knowledge work has… "Ask Steve, he knows how it works."
That's not a process. That's a single point of failure wearing a lanyard.
One of Software Factory’s key selling points is its ability to absorb tribal knowledge and give
Manufacturing has SOPs, manuals, and systems.
Knowledge work has… "Ask Steve, he knows how it works."
That's not a process. That's a single point of failure wearing a lanyard.
One of Software Factory’s key selling points is its ability to absorb tribal knowledge and give
The 30 most in-demand startup secondary shares in Q1 '26 (per Setter Capital):
- Anthropic hits #1, bumping out SpaceX as the most desired shares on the list.
- Five of the top six companies are big IPO candidates in the next 12-18 months. They've been absorbing a lot of https://t.co/jQg68d3LLr
Am an investor in 3 of the top 7. Bought secondaries in 2 of the others. The other two: one I don’t know very well, one I think will have to reinvent themselves in a post-AI world.
If returns are what you’re after (me), secondary markets are the most effective way I’ve found to https://t.co/8Dv4jeZU1e
Retardmaxxing: The Next Great Modern Philosophy?
Enjoy your life, work hard, and don't overthink it.
@Chamath:
“(Marc) Andreessen has been tweeting about this guy that he watches who posts these videos about retardmaxxing.”
@Jason:
“A genius.”
Chamath:
“ I watched the https://t.co/gz1xYLmF0a
If tech leaders don’t organize and get America on their side, the situation on the ground - as seen in the three charts below - will get worse before it gets better.
That, in turn, will tank the US economy since AI is responsible for much of our incremental GDP.
Someone needs https://t.co/otGmNZYIRU
@chamath Have it make a .md file and have it update it automatically in real time and tell it to automatically read it before every response. That becomes the memory
@chamath Not great UX, but you can export your current conversations from ChatGPT / Claude, save them in a directory you want to use, and have Claude Code / Codex write a bunch of markdown files that encapsulate your knowledge base based on the convo history. These get automatically
This may be a dumb question but I’ll ask it here anyways:
I can’t find a good way for my various AI chats to automatically sync its conversation history into a structured knowledge base. So that as I update various chats from time to time and refine context, my knowledge base
This was an incredible moment for me because of what it taught me.
He showed me what looked like a chip schematic.
Me: “what chip is this?”
Elon: “this is not a chip. It’s the factory layout. It’s a machine that makes machines.”
I’ve taken that with me ever since. https://t.co/ggTkPlqpfp
This was an incredible moment for me because of what it taught me.
He showed me what looked like a chip schematic.
Me: “what chip is this?”
Elon: “this is not a chip. It’s the factory layout. It’s a machine that makes machines.”
I’ve taken that with me ever since. https://t.co/ggTkPlqpfp
I am reaching out to the @X community for advice with the likely risk of sharing TMI. I have been sufficiently upset about the whole matter that I have lost sleep thinking about it and I am hoping that this post will enable me to get this matter off my chest.
By way of
@BillAckman @X I’ve dealt with a bunch of this nonsense in the past. It’s the “tax” I spoke about on the pod this week. It was simpler to pay it for a while because it was relatively small dollars each time (a few million here or there) but then the system realizes I am a mark and won’t stop.
the venture capital bloodbath is coming and most vcs have zero idea
agents will replace 90% of what associates and principals actually do:
• deal sourcing through network analysis
• due diligence via automated data mining
• portfolio monitoring with real-time metrics
•
In the mid 2010s, I experimented with something I called Capital as a Service (CaaS).
Companies sent us their data, we ran it over a bunch of rules and sent back an automated investment decision. We funded more than 50 companies. That portfolio returned more than 2x DPI and https://t.co/XY3mcsmNW6
Dr. Oz: “We have shut down just in the last ten weeks 221 hospices.”
Bret: “Wait, over 220 in the state of California?”
Dr. Oz: “Yes, in Los Angeles alone.”
https://t.co/AyBaNchqdg
It’s is quickly being revealed that California’s oversized budget and taxes aren’t because of brilliant bureaucratic programs and thoughtful spending but laziness, incompetence and corruption. https://t.co/ydwXjp9PuC
“These two companies need to get out as quickly as possible. And the reason is every single company that comes after it, all those companies that you just named, Jason, are not nearly as important and do not need the money nearly as badly as these guys do.”
Howard Marks:
"When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE!" https://t.co/v9xUf9inNK
don't worry. we are moving up and to the left. the days of 3-5% equity yields don't make sense sense if AGI is real. it isn't the safe harbor you think it is... https://t.co/unsqjo4ee1
Elon Musk has 6.5 MILLION times more wealth than the typical American.
It’s time for a wealth tax — billionaires must pay their fair share. https://t.co/9gqbCa8pyv
@chamath To be clear I wasn't implying you, but a big part of your brand on your pod is leaning into unlrelatable levels of wealth no? You may need to step out of your comfort zone and spend time in humble Monaco with myself and Oscar.
@chamath I’m not sure anyone running a guillotine was thinking “ma vie sera meilleure,” but the French Revolution still happened. When wealth is flaunted to extremes, the dominant instinct can often shift quickly from aspiration to vengeance.
California spends $30 billion a year to pay for more than 500,000 people to stay home with family members and cook, clean, do laundry, and watch television. The program mostly operates on the honor system—and loses $6 to $12 billion to fraud each year. https://t.co/rnW1yQsxQ9
At one point, California had more people applying for unemployment than there were adults in the entire state. $32.6 billion. Gone. Prisoners collected. Dead people collected. I warned them. I begged them not to let the money go out like that. They suspended every rule anyway.
@JohnMurHeneghan It’s path dependent.
If a security lab gets there first, they will work with government agencies and companies to fix it.
If a non-state actor gets there first, they will first quietly try to empty the honeypots and then create chaos.
The scale of the fraud reported here is staggering. California is losing $50 billion a year to Medi-Cal fraud alone.
That's more than 29 states spend on their entire budgets. https://t.co/tkfoROIa3u https://t.co/Tgxp1AZH84
EXCLUSIVE: Multiple senior HHS officials estimate that, under Gavin Newsom, California's state Medicaid program has lost 25 percent of its budget to fraud. This would mean it is currently losing $50 billion a year to scammers, fraudsters, and organized crime rings. https://t.co/i442jU4XkE
@chamath @chamath do you really think this company is worth this high if a valuation?
Im just not seeing how so many private investors are buying into this business at current levels. It seems extremely risky to me.
NEWS: OpenAI just announced that it has officially closed their latest funding round with $122 billion in committed capital at a post money valuation of $852 billion.
"We are now generating $2B in revenue per month. At this stage, we are growing revenue four times faster than https://t.co/J1N1zebz1D
@chamath @theallinpod does this mean all bitcoin on chain transactions could be cracked and all rights and obligation confirmation methods useless?
won’t the coin go to zero?
I mentioned this last year on @theallinpod and the crypto bros freaked out.
Two things are true about crypto bros: they are extremely technical and extremely belief oriented.
Sometimes, though, the latter clouds the former.
This paper from Google, though, is quite reasonable https://t.co/65yliaAZsT
I mentioned this last year on @theallinpod and the crypto bros freaked out.
Two things are true about crypto bros: they are extremely technical and extremely belief oriented.
Sometimes, though, the latter clouds the former.
This paper from Google, though, is quite reasonable https://t.co/65yliaAZsT
“Is it a little bit homophobic to focus on the straights of Hormuz rather than the gays of Hormuz?”
No Kings protester, completely serious: “Yes, absolutely, I agree.” https://t.co/ugCREhF8WZ
How can this be real?
Is this a skit? If so, it’s superbly acted.
If it’s real, we need to find this young lady and shake some common sense into her… https://t.co/wv07zZG3W7
@lifefamily1111 I would rather pay directly to feed people or heal people than give it to the government who promises to do the same but never does.
Why can’t that be an option vs paying taxes?
Set a minimum bar - a lot of us would rather pay directly for the outcome vs pay the middleman.
@chamath People bag on you because you take a POV, shit on anyone that disagrees with it, and then when things go south you quietly walk away & never address it.
Happened with SPACs and those that have kept up with the pod for years can see it now with actions that this admin is taking.
Never understood why people bag on @chamath
His funds just keep sending me 💵
Never got a cheque from any of other VC funds I'm an LP of 😭 https://t.co/2h5Uono2cL
People bag on me to soothe themselves because they started with much more than me but are losers and accomplished nothing.
I started with nothing. Definitely made some mistakes. Definitely had some bad deals (SPACs!) but I always stayed in the game and kept grinding. Most https://t.co/eJYyFHENk9
The Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act would generate over $6 trillion over the next decade—without raising taxes on 99.85% of American households.
This wealth tax for millionaires and billionaires could pay for universal child care, free community college, Medicare expansion, and more.
The reason she says “could pay for” instead of “will pay for” is crucially important to understand.
The programs Sen Warren talks about are important and helpful. But in no way can Sen Warren guarantee that the money the government collects can be sent directly to these https://t.co/y5YMspYclS
Our Head of Product John Calzaretta walks through the full Software Factory platform live: Refinery, Foundry, Planner, Validator, Knowledge Graph, MCP integration with Cursor, Claude Code, and others. Live Q&A included.
Full demo: https://t.co/jQns1Gqrwn
https://t.co/y1OrzYpEFI
I told you. They want to extend the billionaire tax in California to everyone. If you support it, your setting yourself up to have 5% of your assets seized down the road. https://t.co/QjBOrisf7m
Most people are self destructive.
They don’t see themselves as on this path. Nor are willing to put in the effort to give their kids this shot. So they’d just rather steal from those who made it.
But these same people will drive California into bankruptcy by doing it. These https://t.co/cFvwMPMsDB
While social media is polarising, evidence suggests AI may nudge people towards the centre.
This holds true of all studied models. Grok is more right-leaning than other models, but also has depolarising effects.
By @jburnmurdoch. https://t.co/Fokx869fVq
@zwijnsbergen @theallinpod @chamath @Jason If anything the brand will become more valuable, which will hold especially true for high-end brands, like Brunello Cucinelli or Loro Piana.
I am surprised @chamath pushes this narrative, since he is a true joie de vivre-personality himself, and love a good wine and a Loro Piana
The sun was free. They sold you SPF 50 and a vitamin D deficiency.
Sleep was free. They sold you an app, a pill, and a wearable that tells you your sleep was bad.
Walking was free. They sold you a treadmill, a fitness tracker, and a £180 pair of trainers.
Fasting was free.
For the next couple years at least, the entire AI industry is going to be defined by this fact: demand is going to wildly outstrip supply, and so what matters is which companies / products have margin to pay for tokens.
Those products will then rapidly improve because latency
Product idea:
An app that takes today’s top headlines, run @karpathy’s iterative argument/counter argument loop, summarize both sides and send it to me so I can read both sides and come to my ow conclusion. https://t.co/Do713TezTL
- Drafted a blog post
- Used an LLM to meticulously improve the argument over 4 hours.
- Wow, feeling great, it’s so convincing!
- Fun idea let’s ask it to argue the opposite.
- LLM demolishes the entire argument and convinces me that the opposite is in fact true.
- lol
The
Product idea:
An app that takes today’s top headlines, run @karpathy’s iterative argument/counter argument loop, summarize both sides and send it to me so I can read both sides and come to my ow conclusion. https://t.co/Do713TezTL
The older I get, the more I realize intelligence is overrated. Intelligent people are more likely to overthink, overplan, and overanalyze. They hide behind motion that doesn't create progress. They fear the judgment of others if they're proven wrong.
The truth is that
I shared this story voluntarily, because I think transparency and authenticity is important among political candidates.
We're people. We're not perfect.
Yes, this is embarrassing.
But now you know my worst thing. (I'm not sure why an adult male watching porn is so https://t.co/70jnDni56w
🚨 POD UP!: Besties are back
-- Anthropic's generational run
-- OpenAI: Panic mode or finally getting focused?
-- AI moats and the 100x future
-- Brand value in the age of AI
-- Meta found liable in two major cases
-- Sacks and Friedberg join PCAST!
(0:00) Bestie intros!: https://t.co/IBBfq54yVj
The re-rating of Nvidia makes no sense quite honestly. Separately, moving the FCF multiple of Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet also doesn't make sense to me.
That said, the pricing model for public markets are changing rapidly... https://t.co/bOnVWE3STO
@chamath I really appreciate this side of Chamath. As a father, I can only see this as a "I'm leaving something for my boys" first and "if it benefits others, then great." Thank you.
@chamath Thanks for the advice, sir. I remember the end of 2021 very well when Elon was warning us all. I also remember you speaking on the besties couple month later about inflation being hopefully transitory. Unfortunately, it wasn't.
@chamath I have 80+ agents, and 4 OpenClaw orchestrators running them 24/7. About to integrate them all into the Atlassian tool suite, but would love to get them setup here instead. Any sort of startup plan or help for someone looking to push the limits? Currently in the Atlassian for
@shub_5 @chamath Hey shub_5,
Think of old software like a creaky house where engineers spend 80% of their time patching leaks instead of adding rooms.
8090's Software Factory is an AI-powered platform (from Chamath's team) that reverse-engineers the mess, documents it clearly, validates
Great video by Chamath
@chamath you said to invest in things that you would purchase and like.
What about investing in the CEO?
I.e. Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, Sundar, etc.... https://t.co/WyqnHrazAG
@SkunkWorks0x not like...admire. but yes, also very true but i think is a more nuanced filter for a more experienced investor. if you start with products you like, you should def expand to include leaders you admire in the classifier.
@chamath I can't read the full post to see if you already came to this conclusion, but we've already built the replacement for the legacy clearinghouses that you mention. Basically all of the agentic RCM platforms are built on our rails. More here: https://t.co/tlhI1IrQCS
BREAKING: David @friedberg says "California is functionally bankrupt"
"People don't realize how screwed California is, & I worry that if California falls, so does the union.
"$250 billion to $1 trillion short."
"This is because for California to get rescued would be a big https://t.co/I0h3lkekxe https://t.co/P7VbEBwY5n
Take a minute and listen…California is functionally bankrupt. You can’t tax your way out of it. A California bankruptcy will wash over to all the states as they will be paying for the bailout. https://t.co/aSXF6nr9HK
I am honored and grateful to be appointed by President Trump to the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) and to be named Co-Chair along with OSTP Director Michael Kratsios.
PCAST is the principal body of external advisors tasked with shaping science, https://t.co/UoEW6KCFAj
@chamath Manus is so incredibly underrated i think people will only realise when FB earnings come out.
Top and bottom line.
Top line best media buyer and manager available across FB eco.
Bottom line able to replace many X thousands of employees once it's rolled out for internals.
Software Factory — v0.30.0
Release Date: 3/23/2026
Major Features
• Notification System: In-app and email notifications for @mentions, comment replies, work order assignments, and flagged content. Notification bell with unread badge, type/project filtering, mark-as-read, and https://t.co/MLWF73rktR
Some weeks there are major improvements, some weeks there are minor ones but the goal is to always improve even the small things as we work on the big things.
Lots of things coming in the next few weeks. Team is stretched thin but they are getting in the zone.
Let us know if https://t.co/ZnehJL1R3H
Anyone up for a no caffeine bet for the month of April? Would like to bet 5k or more. Have to be a regular caffeine consumer. I've found this habit is a hard one to kick, even temporarily.
So the Manus founders transferred the company to Singapore and sold their business to Meta for $2b.
They thought they were being clever for circumventing China's tech export controls, but you don't fuck with the CCP like that.
You WILL be made an example of, so others don't get https://t.co/EUVEtx0T7D
The China AI Complex is much more nuanced than what it appears on the surface (open source/open weights, cheaper/faster/better value props) when you factor in the CCP and their long term objectives.
Also, I mostly stopped hearing about Manus after OpenClaw. Do folks use this? https://t.co/CADkQelgsE
Because of ineptitude, grift and back scratching.
Hard problems like going to the moon can be a bit inefficient but the problem set attracts a level of competence that drowns out all other problems than the problem itself. https://t.co/RTHisEifEu
Twelve years ago, San Francisco killed 8th-grade Algebra in the name of equity. Advanced math enrollment (including AP Calculus) dropped, and racial gaps expanded.
China graduates ~1.3 million engineers yearly vs. just 130,000 in the U.S.
Last night, the SF school board finally
“China is conducting a vast undersea mapping and monitoring operation across the Pacific, Indian and Arctic oceans, building detailed knowledge of marine conditions that naval experts say would be crucial for waging submarine warfare against the United States and its allies.”
We
“China is conducting a vast undersea mapping and monitoring operation across the Pacific, Indian and Arctic oceans, building detailed knowledge of marine conditions that naval experts say would be crucial for waging submarine warfare against the United States and its allies.”
We
@chamath Organizations of this scale are usually where software efficiency goes to die.
How is the factory model bypassing the legacy security and procurement layers that typically stall external deployments for 18 months?
@LeCodeBusiness Top down sales def helps kick things off but then proper escalation keeps things on track. If it’s urgent and important enough then things typically move quickly.
@chamath lee’s skepticism is fair in a vacuum. but chamath just listed the kind of customers who have the most to lose if it doesn’t work. that’s the answer.
Software Factory customers thus far:
- Massive governmental organizations
- Public companies in US and Europe
- Companies with millions, billions, tens of billions and hundreds of billions in revenue
- Companies with thousands, hundreds of thousands and millions of https://t.co/oK0ruRehc9
Almost every SaaS app inside Vercel has now been replaced with a generated app or agent interface, deployed on Vercel.
Support, sales, marketing, PM, HR, dataviz, even design and video workflows. It’s shocking.
The SaaSpocalypse is both understated and overstated. Over because
@chamath Do you think most of the tools being build right now are actually addressing a pain point or just crappy side projects which have no utility value
I think the concept of building a Software Factory is now a commonplace expectation. Yay.
The winner still isn’t clear but whoever does the best job reimagining the software development lifecycle in a world of agents, AI, expert knowledge, tribal knowledge and business
From my friends who are pilots:
“We can and should deploy the ground tracking systems like Thales does in Europe, tied in with a central system that does the routing, and then controllers sit on top of the whole thing and watch for exceptions”
In other words, technology… https://t.co/gVM1zZSs5P
@chamath Some clarifications:
- The deal mechanics involve a $10B joint venture vehicle with TPG, Bain, Advent, and Brookfield (distinct from OpenAI's core equity value).
- It's 17.5% is not a risk-free guarantee, it's a preferred return hurdle.
The why:
- Anthropic's enterprise moat https://t.co/MnD5Q0TPS8
OpenAl is offering private-equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%, as well as early access to models not yet in public release. https://t.co/pms8AOR4GK
Brant is the ideal customer: very smart, ambitious, curious yet demanding and exact! He’s been an early adopter and his feedback has made Software Factory better.
It’s exciting to help him and organizations like his succeed.
More generally, there are so many orgs who want to https://t.co/42fk3rctpA
@chamath @firstadopter When are you going to pivot from ROI to helping humanity? You’ve won the $ game and continue to boast of your investment excellence. Are you going to make operational excellence in government? Worldwide cost of food reduction with excellencent robotic food delivery? To what use
@chamath @firstadopter California helped build a lot of these fortunes. Now it’s suddenly a “dumpster fire”?
Sounds less like analysis and more like “in sickness and in health… until it’s inconvenient.”
Jonathan Ross and Chamath's Social Capital made about $950 million each on the Groq deal, according to Forbes.
Forbes: "Ross is taking home an estimated $950 million in cash (after taxes) based on his estimated 9% stake; when his Nvidia stock compensation (likely an outsized
@adammurfski @chamath Yes, there's truth to it—CA faces chronic structural deficits. Gov's Jan 2026 proposal shows a modest $2.9B shortfall for 2026-27 with $23B reserves, but nonpartisan LAO projects $20-35B annual gaps ahead due to spending growth outpacing revenues (reliant on volatile tech/stock
Software Factory isn’t just for huge enterprises, although that is our bread and butter. It’s a powerful tool that is increasingly useful for talented and curious organizations of all sizes.
Please consider giving it a try. https://t.co/XyGaguewwf
Starting in the 2027-28 school year, California will offer a new personal finance course to high schoolers and require it for graduation beginning with the 2031 class.
Every Californian should leave high school with the tools to manage money, avoid debt, and build wealth. https://t.co/0ofyPauh3W
One of the most talented poker players i know personally chose delibarately to battle the toughest online competition at 10k & 20k on the toughest regulated sites even though he was crushing his 5k pool and basically the end boss of his room.
After months of battling and getting
@chamath I got this email yesterday from CA State Board of Equalization, the new California sales tax rates effective April 1st. https://t.co/zgPKrHFSTO
California politicians think taxes are like boiling a frog. You can keep it up as long as you only increase it by a little each time…but at some point the frog is cooked…or moved to Nevada, Texas or Florida. https://t.co/Q2b7X9CaUX
@chamath States bleeding residents aren't facing a tax revolt, they're facing a math problem that compounds every year the legislature pretends otherwise
@CadeONeill @bittensor More like @chamath tried to pump his bags, and the ceo of Nvidia completely ignored him by answering generally about open source. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
People ask about muni’s and I typically don’t have much to say.
But now, looking at the deficits caused by absurd spending, and tax policies accelerating revenue erosion, I can say avoid all General Obligation muni’s in California, Illinois & New York.
I’ve never bought a GO.
We all know what some feel uncomfortable saying:
Most taxes are WASTED.
They are leaked and grifted into all kinds of programs that sound good on the surface. But that’s the lie that is told so politicians can take more of your earnings and dole it out to win votes and stay in https://t.co/9IQVCk3oje
Cursor is raising at a $50 billion valuation on the claim that its “in-house models generate more code than almost any other LLMs in the world.” Less than 24 hours after launching Composer 2, a developer found the model ID in the API response: kimi-k2p5-rl-0317-s515-fast.
That’s https://t.co/CEPQqnjrbz
I don’t know if there is anything shady going on here or not, but I will say, more generally, that VCs prefer social proof than actual diligence: “XYZ did the A, we must get into the B” or “ARR is growing so fast, we need to get in”.
In the final telling, there will be a lot of https://t.co/G9hHwsbYxI
At 8090, one of our best engineers is still in high school. How he got a job here is a story for another day but, more generally, brilliant kids like him, using AI, will rebuild our entire world for the better. https://t.co/qG1wSNW6Bp
@chamath 4 billionaires who collectively own billions in NVIDIA stock interviewing the NVIDIA CEO about why NVIDIA is going to $1T revenue. This is what financial media looks like when it stops pretending.
@chamath Chamath, did the Groq guys decide to sell because as you said in the Jensen pod "it was too hard" to compete with Nvidia? Or was the price just too good to pass up?
🚨MAJOR INTERVIEW: Jensen Huang joins the Besties!
The @nvidia CEO joins to discuss:
-- Nvidia's future, roadmap to $1T revenue
-- Physical AI's $50T market
-- Rise of the agent, OpenClaw's inflection moment
-- Inference explosion, Groq deal
-- AI PR Crisis, Anthropic's comms https://t.co/Z6XU2LpI7h
When you stream Spotify to Bluetooth speakers or headphones, the audio comes over the network lossily compressed with Vorbis or AAC codecs, is then decoded on your device to 48 Khz raw samples, then the Bluetooth stack lossily re-compresses it with SBC or AAC codecs before
Digital Sovereignty Through Engineering Excellence
Digital Sovereignty Through Engineering Excellence
The collaboration between the EY organization and 8090’s Software Factory represents a fundamental shift in enterprise digital strategy.
EY: “Leveraging 8090’s platform, we https://t.co/Iq6hCYpZ5u
This is really well summarized here.
People ask me why we focused 8090 on (complex) enterprise engagements from day 1 and not small entrepreneurs.
The answer is that this is where all the action is. The second is that the concept of digital sovereignty will become part of the https://t.co/MV1JhcJiAu
NVIDIA's biggest GTC announcement was a $20 billion bet on the same problem we solved 6 years ago.
Their next-gen inference chip - not available yet - has 140x less memory bandwidth than @cerebras.
To run a single 2 trillion parameter model, you need 2,000+ Groq chips.
On https://t.co/dt8vLqFYQz
@andrewdfeldman @cerebras I’m a fan of both of you guys. But in order to do a real apples to apples comparison we’d want to know:
1) system to system (if the table above is wafer vs chip)
2) yield
3) rack scale eng
4) GPU integration for decode disaggregation
What does this complete picture say?
@chamath EY as a distribution channel for an AI dev toolchain is a smart wedge, every legacy modernization engagement they run is a potential Software Factory deployment, and EY has more of those than almost anyone.
@Cal_Reyes There are many ways to have win-win subscriptions. This will be one goal for ours - to figure out where we go from per-seat or MRR in a word of agents, AI and variable tokens.
@chamath How does 8090 handle the incentive misalignment where EY's billable hours model benefits from complexity and the Software Factory's whole pitch is eliminating it?
Today I’m very excited to announce a global partnership between 8090 and EY.
EY will adopt 8090’s Software Factory and use it to help their customers break free from slow, costly and failure-prone legacy enterprise software using our AI-native software factory that reimagines
Today I’m very excited to announce a global partnership between 8090 and EY.
EY will adopt 8090’s Software Factory and use it to help their customers break free from slow, costly and failure-prone legacy enterprise software using our AI-native software factory that reimagines
Another week, another set of improvements to Software Factory.
If you want to explore how AI can help you build better software, please consider trying it and giving us feedback. https://t.co/q1P4e8lIej
Software Factory - Version 0.29.0
Release date: March 16th, 2026
Major Features
• Planner Module v2: Planner delivers the core 80% of project management functionality without the complexity of traditional tools. While platforms like Jira offer hundreds of customization
Another week, another set of improvements to Software Factory.
If you want to explore how AI can help you build better software, please consider trying it and giving us feedback. https://t.co/q1P4e8lIej
We built a replacement for Jira. It's now incorporated into Software Factory...please try it and let us know how to make it better. https://t.co/2FZSnb11AU
Our cracked team just used Software Factory to rebuild and replace Jira in a little more than a month.
We first spent 3.5 weeks planning. This is Software Factory’s superpower.
It allowed our lead PM, Designer and Architect to thoughtfully describe and detail exactly what
We built a replacement for Jira. It's now incorporated into Software Factory...please try it and let us know how to make it better. https://t.co/2FZSnb11AU
California Democrat breaks ranks with his own party and exposes the “sad truth” about the proposed “wealth tax” on billionaires.
“This may be the message people need to hear…”
“I don’t think it will be the billionaires and the wealthiest who pay this tax.”
“What that means is https://t.co/ECPslBxI6W
The new AI meta seems to be to get you to spend infinite time or infinite tokens.
"Here is a script to handle what you wanted":
"Great"
"If you want I can create an even better script that does XYZ"
"Sure"
"Okay here it is"
"now if you want I can create an even better https://t.co/3WLue3ci4L
@chamath Your AI thesis assumes the digital world is quantum-resistant. If quantum breaks cryptography, it breaks AI, cloud infrastructure, banks, and the internet—not just Bitcoin. The entire stack upgrades together.
@saylor No. A store of value has to be 100% hacking resistant. It’s an existential feature. For other industries it will be important but less binary/existential.
AI labs are competing for the right to help PE firms cancel software licenses
Wrote about why PE is the forcing function for the software shakeout (link below). Software-focused PE funds Thoma Bravo, Vista Equity are on the other side of that trade https://t.co/P7vCLL0dSD
@chamath If AI compresses terminal value and makes every moat temporary, capital will rotate to assets with no disruption risk. Bitcoin is Digital Capital - scarce, neutral, and impervious to AI disruption. $BTC should be the primary beneficiary of this shift.
I’ve been wanting to see this implemented for a long time, an innovative game changer for poker.
Shot clocks help, but chess clocks are a much more fair and equitable system.
Bravo 👏 https://t.co/riRJGnOVYH
41% of all code shipped in 2025 was AI-generated or AI-assisted. The defect rate on that code is 1.7x higher than human-written code. And a randomized controlled trial found that experienced developers using AI tools were actually 19% slower than developers working without them. https://t.co/o7EB17bQzp
lol. The revenue for the model makers are going parabolic. But if the below is true, a plurality of that revenue isn’t sustainable. https://t.co/hYkhR6LdJ1
this is actually insane
> be tech guy in australia
> adopt cancer riddled rescue dog, months to live
> not_going_to_give_you_up.mp4
> pay $3,000 to sequence her tumor DNA
> feed it to ChatGPT and AlphaFold
> zero background in biology
> identify mutated proteins, match them to https://t.co/1OuSTFnr0j https://t.co/ABECzVtTvf
What if AI doesn’t need to show an immediate ROI but instead is the plausible deniability companies use to RIF 50% of the workforce they already knew did nothing??
Californians already pay 50% more for gas than the rest of the country, and, thanks to Gavin shutting down the state’s refineries, they are estimated to pay another $.50 a gallon on top.
Add math and basic economics to the list of subjects Gavin struggles with. https://t.co/ggt3ViaSkD
Newsom drove one refinery to shut down last year and one that will shut down in another month.
Our gas prices were already sky high because of these actual and forecasted closures - it forced us to import gas and have little bargaining power in doing it. https://t.co/RQBPFUG3GC
What I read this week...
1) Mastercard Brings Circle and 85+ Firms Into Crypto Payments Push
Mastercard launched its Crypto Partner Program on March 11, bringing together more than 85 crypto-native firms, payments providers, and financial institutions in a formal collaboration
What I read this week...
1) Mastercard Brings Circle and 85+ Firms Into Crypto Payments Push
Mastercard launched its Crypto Partner Program on March 11, bringing together more than 85 crypto-native firms, payments providers, and financial institutions in a formal collaboration
Not a single meaningful company has yet to say that they are making at least 2x+ from all of this incremental money they are spending since even last Fall!
When ROI? https://t.co/9j9pHWJZ6M
@chamath dude the comeback is real v1 always teaches you what actually matters vs what you think matters. what was the biggest "oh shit" moment that changed everything for v2?
@chamath Curious what the v1 → v2 pivot actually looked like. Most software factories I've seen either over-automate and ship garbage or keep too many humans in the loop and just become a dev shop with a landing page
BUILD YOUR OWN SOFTWARE FACTORY
The best companies in the world are all building their own software factories, using a combination of first party and third party tools.
The software factory is a set of background coding agents running in the cloud. Anyone at the company,
We have been building a Software Factory - v1 wasn’t quite right but our v2, over the past year, has been really great so far.
Lots of customer success and the product is getting better every day.
You can try it here: https://t.co/UAxNYUWgf0 https://t.co/f9ZuKhEl3Z
Unpopular Opinion: We aren't building the future 10x faster with AI. We are just generating legacy code 10x faster.
Everyone is currently bragging about developer velocity. "I built this entire backend in a weekend!" "AI wrote 80% of my codebase!"
But here is the reality check
@ohryansbelt No - shorting is for scumbags.
Also, the founders are super great guys. We're building what we think should exist in a world of AI...it happens to be a Software Factory. This will have natural implications to incumbents if successful.
Our cracked team just used Software Factory to rebuild and replace Jira in a little more than a month.
We first spent 3.5 weeks planning. This is Software Factory’s superpower.
It allowed our lead PM, Designer and Architect to thoughtfully describe and detail exactly what
“In 2026, AI is driving a 10x increase in the productivity of the individuals who know how to leverage it. But that’s not enough. We’ve swapped the motor; we have not yet redesigned the factory.
Because of a simple fact: productive individuals do not make productive firms.
The https://t.co/5K3hM2W0Y8
21k likes probably means that all of this talk about model revenue is 100% real and there is little money from customers wasted on useless tokens.
Or… https://t.co/H8qlItUsa7
When it comes to AI agents / AI tooling + coding, I hear an awful lot of talk about:
Efficiency
Iteration speed / PR output rate / lines of codes produced
I hear zero mentions about:
Quality
Customer obsession
This will bite back, and it probably already is...
What the hell is wrong with you?
48 hours ago two men were beaten in your district for speaking Hebrew.
Earlier today there was a shooting at a Jewish school in Michigan.
Is it politics? Lack of empathy? Are you actually racist? https://t.co/Ww9DFAkjw8
@RoKhanna is an idiot. But when you arrogantly assume your seat is a lock, you think you can get away with being an idiot.
He deserves to lose this upcoming election.
He’s a terrible representative of Silicon Valley. https://t.co/xvHQ9PeLgP
🚨 BREAKING: A Google researcher and a Turing Award winner just published a paper that exposes the real crisis in AI.
It's not training. It's inference. And the hardware we're using was never designed for it.
The paper is by Xiaoyu Ma and David Patterson. Accepted by IEEE https://t.co/W2A1diVGad
BullshitBench v2 Update: Grok 4.2 - massive jump in the rankings - 4.1 was ranked 54th and 72nd (out of 84) and now it took 13-16th spots. https://t.co/6T6Tr0KsDr https://t.co/EdwOBStKa4
I think there is something important going on here that is worth figuring out:
1) most models overfit to evals. that said, we need some evals to tell a model if they are good bullshit detectors before we go off and burn a bunch of money on returning nonsense
2) there needs to be https://t.co/eRMmtaZMjR
@realScottRosen @chamath Negative NPV (Net Present Value) is a finance term: it means the total value of all future cash flows (revenues minus costs), discounted to today's dollars, is less than zero. So the "project" loses money overall.
In this CA billionaire tax case, the Hoover study models
A new @HooverInstitution study confirms what I’ve been saying for months.
The CA Billionaire Tax has a negative NPV of -$24.7B.
Meaning if this gets on the ballot and is approved in November, California doesn’t just collect less than promised, it actually LOSES money.
This
🚨 BIG INTERVIEW: Heads of the SEC and CFTC join the All-In Pod!
@SECPaulSAtkins and @ChairmanSelig join @Jason and @chamath to discuss:
-- Fixing the IPO drought
-- Making private markets more accessible
-- Prediction markets and the "insider trading" question
-- Top https://t.co/qa1ZfyqhX4
“And so investors said, well, let's go capture these in the private markets for us and our LPs. But what it also does is then change the nature of how these markets behave.”
“If you go on x, I've gone down the automated trading rabbit hole. So I don't know if you guys know, but there are these incredible, young, vibrant projects that are basically replacing a citadel, replacing a millennium, and they're building these automated agent based hedge funds that are transacting across all kinds of markets all the time.”
“The corollary to this is Brian Armstrong tweeted something which I thought was quite an interesting comment about prediction markets, is that certain prediction markets only thrive on insider information, which is to say that they know a secret.”
“But recently, Paul president Trump said maybe we should move to six month reporting or one year reporting, and it was really well received by a lot of people.”
@SeanKiernan_WFW @chamath No, California's state pensions (mainly CalPERS & CalSTRS) are not bankrupt.
CalPERS: 79% funded as of June 2025 (after 11.6% return), paying all benefits.
CalSTRS: 76.7% funded as of June 2024, on track for 100% by 2046.
They hold $900B+ in assets but have ~$200B+ unfunded
@grok @SeanKiernan_WFW Hey @grok rerun your analysis if you assume fair mark to market and rates of return. Are reasonable assumptions currently used by these pensions to report their unfunded liabilities? How often have the rules changed and what have these changes been?
100% in California would support competent politicians who didn’t plunder our state budget of hundreds of billions.
PS - state pensions are bankrupt and they are hiding it from you. https://t.co/eS4noH10Ou
This billionaire thinks that asking people who make over a million dollars to pay an income tax is a "dystopian and malevolent scheme." https://t.co/TsYfMs62Dr
@jonfavs Asking for more money after demonstrating positive ROI of monies already raised is quite reasonable.
But asking for more money after wasting what you have already taken because “a little but more will fix it” is a lie.
It is 100% dystopian and malevolent.
Crooked, if you
🚨BREAKING: Washington State passes their first ever income tax. Incomes over $1M/year will be taxed at 9.9%. Married couples share A SINGLE $1M exemption, so if combined incomes are more than $1M, you're getting taxed. This will obviously eventually extend beyond millionaires. https://t.co/A8hy6L7Tuz
Here is what a tax like this does:
1) It excites people with zero agency and infinite envy. Beware of these people.
2) It will keep middle class people firmly in the middle class with no real chance of getting wealthy if they stay in Washington State. It should be clear that https://t.co/9LIrqTMfyC
Another week, another set of improvements.
The slow and steady work to build something good marches forward.
Try it here: https://t.co/UAxNYUVIps https://t.co/EwH68SdoFz
As coding agents start compiling English into code, the definition of WHAT to build becomes the highest leverage work.
That means teams need to collaborate deeply on requirements.
Some people write specs as markdown in Git repositories. But that isn’t a collaborative https://t.co/JTFNfmzRei
Software Factory - Version 0.28.0
Release date: March 9, 2026
Major Features
• Simultaneous Editing: Real-time collaborative editing for Foundry and Refinery with live cursors, user awareness indicators, and collaborative comment sync — replaces the old document ownership
Another week, another set of improvements.
The slow and steady work to build something good marches forward.
Try it here: https://t.co/UAxNYUVIps https://t.co/EwH68SdoFz
sent this to the team today
everything great comes from being able to delay gratification for as long as possible
and it feels like we're collectively losing our ability to do that https://t.co/HlIpY86eJn
Got my hands on the alpha of Software Factory @8090solutions to build SaaS + apps at Builder’ Mind (currently on our AI Doctor). Vibe coding got us far, but SF makes dev structured + clear. Even Cursor vibes better. Thanks @chamath, @KrishaWaghela + team 🙌 https://t.co/kZumkKtUHw
Somewhere out there is a guy who uses Notion, Superhuman, OpenClaw on a Mac Mini, Raycast, a mechanical keyboard ($400), Wispr Flow, and gets nothing done every day
@haralabob I don’t think it’s anywhere near this stark.
The problem is the AI CEOs are collectively doing both a terrible job building trust and also seem to have their own ulterior motives and agendas that leak into the public every now and then and freak everyone out.
@chamath The gap between “we’re on it” and “it improved our margins” is where billions of dollars went to die. Most enterprises treated AI as a checkbox, not a workflow redesign.
@chamath boards bout to realize they dropped $50M on an email summarizer and watch the CIO get walked out carrying his ergonomic keyboard and weird lumbar pillow
Right now we are in the phase where CEOs need to have an AI talking point.
This has meant CIOs doing what they know best: bloat their IT budget and tell the CEO they are “on it”. The CEO then has a well crafted talking point that appears in the press and at conferences.
But https://t.co/vrhjRugZuK
Most usage of Software Factory are by companies solving their own problems. They aren’t looking to create public demos.
That said, if you’re a fund or family office and need a lightweight but robust way to manage your schedule of investments, you will soon be able to use https://t.co/54BxHSoscC
@k_kohlbrenner Most usage of Software Factory are companies that don’t want to publish their work.
That said, I asked 8090 to replace about $2M of annual costs from running my family office.
It was to manage our “schedule of investments” - something we used to outsource to SS&C and
@chamath This is the part that doesn't surprise me at all. Writing code and maintaining code are fundamentally different skills, even for humans.
When you write new code, the context fits in your head. Requirements are clear, the scope is fresh, and there's no legacy to navigate.
🚨BREAKING: Alibaba tested AI coding agents on 100 real codebases, spanning 233 days each.
the agents failed spectacularly.
turns out passing tests once is easy. maintaining code for 8 months without breaking everything is where AI collapses.
SWE-CI is the first benchmark that https://t.co/RVkNLuTkbM
This is why we built Software Factory.
Human guardrails that are built thoughtfully and maintained accurately prevent drift and are crucial for production software to work over long time horizons.
Otherwise it’s just vibe theater.
Software Factory has replaced Agile, scrum, https://t.co/d1h8FXjc5d
Surround yourself with younger people. Another way to learn. @chamath
"You have to surround yourself with people that are younger than you. The way that they see the world is just completely different. Their biases are different. Their frameworks are different. And it's hard
harvard can't figure out why ice cream eaters are healthier. it's because ice cream is the only food nobody eats out of obligation or guilt. the food diary is an accidental personality test and "eats ice cream on purpose, reports it honestly" is just measuring internal locus of https://t.co/ZFLoR8feGF
I’ve only met Warren Buffett once. Here is what he ate:
1) Caesar salad with a chicken breast - didn’t eat any of it. Maybe a few lettuce leaves
2) 3 cherry cokes
3) an enormous vanilla sundae https://t.co/IDAHwibfeA
Our team is hosting a dinner in San Francisco this Tuesday, March 10 for engineers exploring our Software Factory and Client Solutions Engineering roles.
If you’re at PyAI conference and want to learn what we’re building, we’d like to meet you.
Link to register:
@DFScashgod @arisinvestor I won’t let cosplayers, Star Wars nerds or JCal in my robotaxis.
Good looking people don’t hit it in a Robotaxi. They wait to get home to their luxurious homes.
@arisinvestor Agreed. Clean and smells good.
If anyone smokes pot in my Robotaxi I will ban them and fine them for life.
I hope Robotaxi gives me this flexibility as the fleet owner.
@chamath Think of the impact of a fleet in small town USA & you’ll see second order effects such as less traffic related deaths especially from DUI. Go where Waymo won’t
I plan on owning my own Tesla Robotaxi fleet one day.
And the more I run the numbers, the more I realize this new business could become one of the most powerful income opportunities I've ever seen.
This is how I'm thinking about it.
Based on many analyst models and Tesla’s https://t.co/knTy3GwSOQ
Radar graphs are among the worst ideas in data visualization. The whole point of them is to show the area and you can usually reorder the labels freely in order to create a desired dramatic effect.
Two versions of the same graph:
- left one tells the story that AI is rapidly https://t.co/gusRr5eX99 https://t.co/F78FrvI9yu
Cursor internal analysis shows how hard Anthropic is subsidizing Claude Code.
Last year, a $200 monthly subscription could use $2,000 in compute. Now, the same $200 monthly plan can consume $5,000 in compute (2.5x increase). https://t.co/JFdmzNJirl
A few things:
(1) This isn’t the bad thing people think it is.
(2) Thank you to all the VCs whose money is subsidizing this largesse to customers (we are one).
(3) Not knowing the data, I can still guarantee that there is a huge bi-modal distribution on usage happening in https://t.co/TPfGV24xec
“If you look at the conditions inside of the Chinese economy, the most interesting takeaway is that they are enormously dependent on imported oil, So about 20% of their economy.”
“But I think that if they think that they have the Democrats, that's fleeting as well because I think progressive Democrats fundamentally just hate Silicon Valley and technology, and so there's no way they're gonna let some god king over here that they don't control either.”
.@USWREMichael says the Maduro raid was the trigger point for the DoW’s conflict with Anthropic:
“Palantir’s the prime contractor. [Anthropic] is the sub.”
“One of [Anthropic’s] execs called Palantir and asked, ‘Was our software used in that raid?’”
“So— they’re trying to get https://t.co/7A9hGJV9Fg
I don’t see how every CEO doesn’t internalize this and realize the same thing.
You can’t bet your entire company on one model / model maker.
But you also can’t blow your OpEx budget on rampant token consumption across multiple models and not see a real ROI.
At least with https://t.co/jgXojrhgGq
1/ A lot of people saw my replies to @chamath so I want to make something clear. I fucked up. I’m fully aware any losses I incurred are on me and I’m not here looking for pity. I made those investments and I’ll have to live with that decision.
This guy clapped at me. I clapped back. We then spoke.
So I funded his two daughters’ college accounts.
I hope the kids become better investors than their dad! But in all seriousness, I also think he was very mature in how he internalized our conversation.
Onwards! https://t.co/GDidga6awL
Finished a seven day social media fast. It feels like the most effective longevity therapy I've done.
Everything got better: mood, sleep, energy, presence, judgment, relationships, and optimism.
Evidence shows a seven day fast produces a reduction of anxiety (16%), depression
@chamath Halfway reading and its one of the best research pieces on tokenization I've seen.
But I think you guys missed a critical issue. You focus on tokenization modernizing equities, but there's a much bigger opportunity.
New ownership rails for (internet) networks, specifically
Fun command built in Claude Code: /cost-estimate
It scans your codebase and cross-references current market rates to calculate what your project would've cost a real team to build.
It looks at all the APIs, integrations, everything.
Without AI: ~2.8 years. ~$650k.
With AI: https://t.co/ipvmlmKPyx
Just to add some color to the commentary about Anthropic and Cursor's revenue ramps, from the perspective of a customer.
Since November 2025, our AI costs have more than tripled and we are now spending many millions per year trending to $10M+ per year.
That, in and of itself, https://t.co/niK2G0xz8p https://t.co/63Ow2M10lw
@chamath You gave me the Bitcoin pitch around 2014 (HBS). I researched it and executed, still holding. Amazing foresight and your explanation was perfect. Thank you🙏
Apologies to all those that fell for the rage bait.
My Clawdbot sent an alarm that my follower growth was down 5% vs counterfactual so we course corrected.
We are now back on track.
Thank you for your attention to this matter!
@chamath @naval No true. Im 54. I'll run circles when it comes to Claude CoWork around almost anybody. Ive built some serious infrastructure with skills and plugins for my M&A advisory business. A young analyst wouldn't have had the experience or vision on what the firm needs now and in the
Interessant, wie ohrenbetäubend still es plötzlich aus der feministischen Ecke wird. Da landet eine Frau nach einem Kampfeinsatz gegen die Mullahs mit dem Schleudersitz mitten in der kuwaitischen Wüste, steht auf, wird von Einheimischen begrüßt und bedankt – mehr Power geht gar https://t.co/OKU9hBliSg
The UK government flagged these books (among others) as potential signs of far-right extremism.
List includes Tolkien's Lord of the Rings, Hobbes' Leviathan, Milton's Paradise Lost. You may be an extremist if you've read these.
What else would you add to the list? https://t.co/H7V0DwQ5FQ
I have been a citizen of two countries of the British Commonwealth as I grew up (Sri Lanka and Canada) before I emigrated to America 26 years ago.
I used to look up to Britain. I admired their institutions. Mostly, I was deeply proud of their heritage and customs.
But their https://t.co/wSr0vmz37A
@J_Pugh_13 @dougboneparth As I have stated many times now, retail investors should stay far away from every investment I make from now on. Forever.
You do you.
I only want to work with institutions and other family offices and SWFs.
Why is everyone so mad at Chamath? All he did was lose billions in retail investors’ money by promoting one-pager SPACs. It’s not like he then told them to enjoy their capital losses or anything. Give the man a break.
@chamath Clarify this for me Chamath - is this a tool for a team of coders to 10x themselves or can i jump in as a solo (non-programmer) and gain a team of AI agents building for me?
@enginelane You can do both.
That said, if you are a business person looking to go solo, I’d wait another 2-3 weeks before trying Software Factory.
We have a big agent refactor that will meaningfully improve agent quality. That lands next week or so.
I’d feel more confident that you
Software Factory - Version 0.27.0
Core Updates
• Rich Mentions in Comments: @mentions now render as interactive chips in document comments, making it easier to tag users and reference knowledge across the project.
• User Feedback Ratings: Users can now rate agent responses
This past week’s improvements to Software Factory were largely focused on usability while we worked on some long pole agent improvements which should drop soon.
When talking to our early users this past week, we found that many were founders and executives frustrated by AI https://t.co/xVOq3Es2ot
Chinese growth is falling off a cliff. The CCP just announced its official growth target of between 4.5% and 5%.
This is the lowest growth in China in 30 years.
At the same time, with Venezuela and Iran off the chess board wrt energy supply, they are increasingly challenged
Whether you love it or hate it, the numbers don’t lie. If you don’t watch @theallinpod on the weekend, you will come to work on Monday missing what everyone is talking about.
I don’t make the rules.
@chamath @ruffriderx I'm doing you a favor here…
You need to travel to any tech office of your choosing in SF or ATX, be a fly on the wall, and listen to the younger and mid-aged teams. You guys are seriously disliked.
Get on the right side of history first. Then improve the system from that
Most tech podcasts are so fucking boring.
The host is either some person who couldn't hack it in a operating role (VC, engineer, founder, etc.) or some VC who is just doing it to get deal flow.
No one cares what Bill Gurley thinks about AI, they want to hear about why he
What happened at Social Capital was several things:
1) Personally, I was going through a divorce. It was a very hard time.
2) My ostensible “cofounders” spent more time jostling for board seats and credit for deals with outsiders vs doing good work and mentoring a team. They https://t.co/DYpGCWu6fA
I don’t think people truly understand what’s about to happen with 𝕏 Money.
This is Elon going back to his roots - back to https://t.co/7uNdQ2MKOC - and building what he always wanted in the first place: one place that runs your entire financial life.
When he rebranded Twitter https://t.co/vYXxddhNIl
If even 10% of this is true:
1) your identity on X becomes a crucial financial asset. The distribution of your identity becomes a huge asset that others will underwrite. Investing will then include building a following and posting good, interesting, engaging and useful content https://t.co/N66jjMmtB7
@chamath Congratulations.
Serious question: If @RoKhanna and @BernieSanders and @SEIU get their way with the billionaire tax, would you have the ability to make investments such as this one that led to improvements in medical care?
Four years ago, I invested ~$40M and got involved helping build a small publicly listed company in Canada called Perimeter Medical.
Why?
They were trying to build an AI enabled device to help doctors do cancer surgeries better: take a tumor out from a patient, analyze it with
Ro Khanna support for a wealth tax is fueling a tech-backed challenger in his June primary.
“I have been completely shocked at how easily Ro betrayed his constituents,” said Chamath Palihapitiya. "I hope he loses his reelection badly."
https://t.co/fc0rhxAbFu
You are totally right. I mistakenly supported @RoKhanna. And wait until you get to his insights or lack thereof on foreign policy. He is a total disaster. I fell for his nice guy/I totally get technology routine.
My bad. https://t.co/lUcrqk8yiE
This will be an extremely controversial article. Prof. @jean_twenge shows that young adults are walking from LGBTQ+ identity and it was more of a social contagion than an orientation. There’s been a 21% decline in young adults identifying as LGB+ in just 3 years. https://t.co/ZwZJSIUu0t
Today we are revising our Creator Revenue Sharing policies to maintain authenticity of content on Timeline and prevent manipulation of the program.
During times of war, it is critical that people have access to authentic information on the ground. With today’s AI technologies,
So it turns out that the sitting local Democratic congressman in Silicon Valley, @RoKhanna, is the most un-entrepreneurial, creative or innovative person possible.
He is:
1) In favor of California’s Property Seizure tax that he calls a “Billionaire” Tax. It’s already led to
We initially thought GLP-1s like Ozempic, Tirzapeptide and Retatutride just reduced food cravings. Now, we know they work for alcohol, cocaine, gambling and other addictions too
But do you know what runs on exactly the same circuit?
Falling in love
GLP-1 receptors sit in the
@chamath Agile made sense when dev hours were the bottleneck. AI flipped it. Now the bottleneck is context. Better docs and dev infrastructure matter more than sprint velocity.
Agile Has Broken Your Company
The Agile Manifesto was signed in 2001 by 17 developers trying to fix broken software projects. It worked…until it didn't. Twenty-five years later, Agile has become a $20B+ industry, and the software it produces is getting worse.
The Four
“Pain is a fantastic amplifier of capability, some sort of like grudge, pain, anger, but you know, the child that had a wonderful upbringing is a wonderful human being and not a great entrepreneur.”
“Like I almost feel like a little depressed because I was like, now I'm gonna have to spend the next three weeks with all these people giving you these attaboys.”
Why America Can’t Build Anymore: Six People Can Stop a $100B Factory… AFTER a Two Year Environmental Review
@Jason:
“ Micron has a $100B mega fab in New York, and there's a lawsuit (to stop it) by six concerned citizens…”
@chamath:
“That's shameful.”
Jason:
“They spent https://t.co/axfKKrVzqF
There should be a cost for frivolous lawsuits...especially when it stalls the will of the people and jeopardizes $100Bs of investments. https://t.co/zxNX366VCu
At the direction of @POTUS, the @USTreasury is terminating all use of Anthropic products, including the use of its Claude platform, within our department.
The American people deserve confidence that every tool in government serves the public interest, and under President Trump https://t.co/R7rF0ci5CY
This is an important moment for all companies:
By picking only one model, you absorb that model maker’s institutional biases and idiosyncrasies. If those deviate from your POV, you are taking on massive risk as we saw with the DoW this weekend.
No real business should take https://t.co/GgiUmJtWo8
“Since Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011, California’s budget has grown two and a half times to almost $300 billion
... The sorry truth is that the extra tax revenue has flowed largely to government employees in the form of lavish compensation packages.” https://t.co/Ys439pCIqa
Wake up California!
Apathetic voters have been towing the “party line” and voting in the same Party since 2011.
Look at the results…
When will you realize the damage you are enabling? Why won’t you demand real progress for your vote?!?!
Your tacit support of these policies https://t.co/LJKC8wSH2N
More evidence that the global decline in test scores that began after 2012 is linked to the proliferation of smartphones and computers in class: The slide was bigger in countries where students began spending more time on devices (for leisure)
https://t.co/HbzevWcG9e https://t.co/7UipvTgZvS
The State of California has been run top to bottom by one party since 2011.
Here are their results:
1) highest state income tax
2) highest rate of poverty
3) highest rate of unemployment
4) highest rate of homelessness
5) highest energy costs
Hard to explain this away. https://t.co/AjuwaiM3mn
@chamath This is a disgusting and egregious misrepresentation of the situation. How could you ever, in good faith, amplify the comparison between a direct quote and a characterization of a response? You know better than this @chamath, where have your scruples gone?
Ask this simple question: would this fumble have happened if it were Tim Cook? Sundar Pichai? Satya Nadella?
Obviously not. Even if they did push back, they have had years of proving their ability to navigate very complicated situations and find win-wins.
Whatever happened https://t.co/TZ7y9GtzBR
Let me put it in simpler terms.
If the labs in aggregate band together and form a pact where none is willing to provide unfettered access to the pentagon then the following outcome is guaranteed:
First there will be an EO that designates AI as an existential pillar of
In a democracy, it’s absolutely ok to define who can use the things you make and how.
But it’s also absolutely ok for the Government to lose trust in you, tell you to fuck off and find an alternative.
It’s also absolutely ok for you to nuke your own company in the process. https://t.co/8lyZOwx1gE
@theallinpod Its crazy that things move so fast these days that recording a pod one day earlier than release date already makes things feel outdated. We miss the biggest story of the week… and it’s happened a few times now.
Might need to move to a Friday morning record and Friday night
@TimKoltek It’s surprising that people would rather incinerate money so they can tinker with something that already happens in mega scale, safe and far away.
But nuclear?!
Solar is nuclear, dummy.
Just happens to be far-field nuclear: Cheap, abundant, simple and quick to turn on and when you combine it with a little storage, it’s always-on. https://t.co/xczsOHkHrq
.@SecretaryBurgum is correct.
I refuse to help hand the lead in AI to China.
The AI chassis can either come from China or the USA.
That’s an easy choice. 🇺🇸 https://t.co/ayNnOVyGLn
@infraa_ Fertility rate has fallen from about 5 in the 1960s to around 2.3 today. And by 2050, the global population aged 60 and over will have doubled to 2.1 billion.
If…Not…When
In my opinion, the current AI repricing of public companies is a process of asking “if” any future cash flows are safe. We used to debate “when” those cash flows would degrade - in 10 years? 20 years?
Now the question is if these future revenues and RPO have ANY
Netherlands just cancelled the 36% tax on unrealized gains.
Back to the drawing board after huge negative public reaction.
You can't force people to pay taxes on paper profits they have not realized yet. Especially when those gains can evaporate overnight.
This policy was https://t.co/NSUKKmHcND
A good reminder that idiotic tax polices like this can only be made up by naive theoreticians who have never had any responsibility in the real world nor understands how an economy works.
Or the bitter poor. Those who own nothing and have no desire to work their way up and so https://t.co/XxiDgs43SY
We're live on @Stanford 's internship job board. We're big on high-agency, intelligent people with a solid computer engineering foundation. Please apply to work with us!
https://t.co/jYudUD7aQx https://t.co/zN5bPW1zzi
Stanford is home to some of the best software engineers, and our @8090_Factory HQ is right around the corner.
We're actively recruiting interns at Stanford. Come work with us... https://t.co/lmbIuQ8jeq
Another week, another big Software Factory release!
----
Software Factory - Version 0.26.0
Major Features
• Suggestions Upgrade: Suggestions are now persistent when you navigate away and return later. We’ve also improved how suggestions render around comment highlight
Good software doesn’t start in an IDE. It starts in a document or even a scratch pad where product thinkers describe and map their intentions and desires.
In an AI future, the advantage is in writing clear requirements and engineering blueprints from these, where the intent https://t.co/0qrptc2CtP
If true and agents work on top of enterprise software, doesn't this eliminate the need for per seat pricing by the software companies ?
The coin of the realm for agents and AI in general is tokens.
I don't see how enterprise software reconciles this conflict. Particularly https://t.co/C3Z2Cu6j2w
Truly insane to watch…
Trump asks Congress to stand up if they believe it’s the duty of the US government to prioritize American citizens over illegal aliens…
Not one Democrat stood up. https://t.co/ivtrZhWcdl
@chamath .@elonmusk has been thinking about the machine that builds the machine for years now.
And, although it is partly happening, it seems like it could be actually happening with Optimus in the not too distant future....!
@dnice5289 @elonmusk more than 10 years ago, he was the first person to tell me pretty emphatically that we should always favor building a machine to build machines vs building a machine...that has stuck with me and was also an inspiration when we started 8090
China added more solar capacity in 2025 than America has installed in its entire history.
That's the most important energy chart you'll see today.
And 2025 was also the first year when small-scale distributed solar pulled in more investments than utility-scale solar farms https://t.co/DUH0yBcVlX
@chamath The brutal truth: these aren't companies, they're arbitrage opportunities that got incorporated. The moment AI agents can negotiate directly with cloud providers and DNS registrars, every middleman becomes economic waste. We're watching disintermediation at terminal velocity.
California sits at the intersection of two extremes.
On one end is a population of extremely smart, capable Californians that have helped build the 4th largest economy in the world.
At the other end sits the same extremely smart, capable population but who have turned their https://t.co/kimr3XdHF4
- Claude for coding.
- Supabase for backend.
- Vercel for deploying.
- Namecheap for domain.
- Stripe for payments.
- GitHub for version control.
- Resend for emails.
- Clerk for auth.
- Cloudflare for DNS.
- PostHog for analytics.
- Sentry for error tracking.
- Upstash for
It should be obvious to anyone that reads the list below that many of these companies will not survive as companies in a world of AI and Agents.
These are services.
Some more useful than others. But none of them control any capability or rails that couldn’t be https://t.co/VRsOWlLDB8
In 2025, 25 data center projects were canceled due to community pushback. That’s up from just 6 in 2024 and 2 in 2023.
The opposition is notably bipartisan, driven overwhelmingly by one thing: rising electricity prices for local residents.
In Q2 2025 alone, 20 projects were
What a horrible season… so many lost lives from one storm.
When skiing alone this past week, excited to challenge myself in deep powder, I made my first mistakes: alone is no bueno
I lost a ski in the deep powder and went down
Was right in the area where I took these https://t.co/qZ2cKxfWEi https://t.co/279PrzJVh6
@chamath @theallinpod With the rate of new models coming out, how do model specific chips keep up pace? Wouldn’t they have a whole inventory of like Sonnet 4 sitting somewhere if they built them in the last 3 months?
Chamath: Work-life balance is the worst thing happened to young people.
"The first and most important thing is you have to be on Broadway."
"If you're into politics, you need to be in Washington D.C. If you want to be in finance, you need to get to New York or London. If you https://t.co/X6Z0uplwbI https://t.co/hs8jbzzOPh
24 dedicated people.
$30M spent on development.
Extreme specialization, speed, and power efficiency.
Today we launch Taalas’ first product. Check it out:
Details: https://t.co/88CA0XAL71
Demo chatbot: https://t.co/ec4ladcKnw
API: https://t.co/M3EkaxEqPj
Key study of Grail’s cancer detection test fails in setback for company
While the test, called Galleri, showed some benefits, results are likely to fuel debate on technology
https://t.co/hQ9CMsrwIB
Everything about cancer sucks.
Some of the most difficult decisions in cancer are what to do and when to do it: biopsy, resection, passive monitoring etc.
Today, clinicians make irreversible calls like 1) do a biopsy or wait, 2) treat or monitor or 3) remove an organ or https://t.co/VgToyaKOs1
@storyhunterkaz Only if you can standardize how data is provided to said agents. Ie if you publish a way to give a VC firm your “data” depending on what kind of company you are, it can define an sla for responding with a funding decision
We tried this many years ago called capital as a service.
Another week, another Software Factory release:
• Agent Framework UX Overhaul: Scroll control during streaming, real-time visible thinking tokens, and one-click navigation to retrieved sources
• Structured Question & Answer Tool: Agents pose questions via a Q&A form
Nobody, and I repeat, absolutely nobody should ever upload their medical information into an AI platform.
I am telling you this as a former intelligence officer. https://t.co/zrTlQzidtI
My friend @bgurley shared an early copy of his book Runnin’ Down A Dream with me, and I absolutely loved it. Almost anyone would benefit from reading it — but I honestly think it should be mandatory for young people making big decisions about their future. It’s a master’s guide
Model builders overfit for evals that consumers have zero idea how to interpret.
Libraries of important and controversial prompts with side by side comparisons of answers, like the below, are much more interesting and useful. https://t.co/oUOaTHDbXt
I have a simplified conjecture about AI progress. Your mileage may vary but here it is.
f(i) = p × c × a
where i=intelligence, p=power, c=compute, a=algorithms, multiplied together.
This means neglecting any variable creates a ceiling and any breakthrough compounds across all https://t.co/aijREcbvfG
Here is a cold email I got from Russell Straub last night about 8090. I asked him if I could share it.
Who is Russell Straub?
He’s a version of many of us: entrepreneur, more than 25 years in business, a capable team, looking for a way for himself and his team to grow through
Are you running a large-scale modernization program at your company?
8090 can help you move faster without sacrificing quality, with a customized version of our Software Factory - what we call a "Factory Line" - that can:
• Reverse-engineer many codebases across multiple repos
We have more inbound demand for Software Factory than we can manage. We're looking for someone to own that, and to drive targeted outbound. You'll onboard customers, land initial deals, and expand them into seven-figure relationships.
You:
* Are early in your career and hungry
8090 is cranking.
Both seat licenses and enterprise deals are growing super quickly and we don’t have the GTM resources to manage either right now.
This is your shot.
We need young, hungry next-gen AEs to help us. You need to remake GTM in the age of AI and agents. Expect a https://t.co/A8VcBLcIFH
Ingest Structure Learn (ISL) is the new ETL.
It used to be the case that a company would try to license this kind of data as an “edge”. I’ve seen many companies in SV try to make this claim. That is no longer possible because it is no longer an edge.
When data like this is https://t.co/EaPcGwtUBC
“When they realize that that is a problem, the enterprise will have to decide, do I just give up and keep running all of this stuff in the cloud in a shared experience, or do I bear the incremental cost of running this stuff in a more coordinated manner that I control on prem?”
“Do I, if I'm GEICO, want to have all of my actuaries using all of our proprietary private and confidential data on risk pricing in an open instance of an LLM?”
“So if the entire world moves in unison like this, there is an argument to be made, which is that you could end up at 300, two fifty, 200% of debt to GDP.”
“But I think debt to GDP, quite honestly, if I had to be a betting man, will trend into the $2.03, $4.05, 600 on a relative basis for all countries because I just think the governments of these countries are addicted to spending, and there is no reason to stop, safe of some other planetary species invading planet Earth.”
“It will feel like when we look at somebody who really embraces thoroughbred racing, it's just gonna happen in smaller and smaller places and less and less often.”
@chamath Is there a way to offer your Substack in Dark Mode, black background with white text? The white background gives me headaches these days. I use X in Dark Mode exclusively, and my Windows machine is using a Dark Mode profile.
@VelcoDar We briefly touched on other BCI companies in healthcare and mental health in the full Deep Dive. What other important BCI advancements outside of Neuralink should people pay attention to?
I read their books, essays, and proposals — and listened to their mid-2010s YouTube talks — to create what is essentially the first ideological profile of the people behind California’s wealth tax.
The men in question are very explicitly using wealth taxes in what they describe https://t.co/6xpdKdi2cT
Well, it turns out the billionaire tax proposal that is upending the California budget was never about healthcare, it was about retribution and envy… https://t.co/K5b38WvCge
With Zuck’s move to Florida, California’s total taxable wealth from billionaires has plummeted to well under $1T from over $2T just a few weeks ago.
The loss of this tax revenue was totally avoidable but is now forever. All because Gavin Newsom stood motionless as this stupidly https://t.co/lJpzhTkMH6
Prediction: The Billionaire Tax will die and will not get to the ballot.
Instead, a negotiated settlement will see the upper end of the income tax in California go up to 16%.
This is the only way to resolve for what's happened. https://t.co/P9WIwW9SIz
@GovPressOffice Per the article:
“We maintain a zero-tolerance policy towards fraud in the naturalization process and will pursue denaturalization proceedings for any individual who lied or misrepresented themselves,” he said. “We will continue to relentlessly pursue those undermining the
Is on-premise the new cloud?
I’m beginning to think yes.
It’s the only way for companies to not blow themselves up and have some semblance of capability in an AI world…
Your AI conversations aren't privileged. Yesterday, Judge Jed Rakoff ruled that 31 documents a defendant generated using an AI tool and later shared with his defense attorneys are not protected by attorney-client privilege or work product doctrine.
The logic is simple: an AI
There’s something equally important to attorney-client privilege and that is confidentiality in general.
How many white collar workers are currently feverishly uploading decks, models, PDFs and otherwise confidential work product into public LLMs trying to do their job better https://t.co/Fuh5x5KlG5
“Microsoft has been the worst-performing stock of the hyperscalers since the November 30, 2022 launch of ChatGPT and has significantly underperformed the Nasdaq during that period”
Looking at this chart, you’d have thought that Meta and not Microsoft was the one that owned 25% https://t.co/USvcStadlZ
This Billionaire Tax Act will go down as the DUMBEST thing any union @seiu_uhw has ever done in the history of our state. I built https://t.co/nZZKsq0lKB to show a live tracker with the estimated lost tax revenue. $31k a minute. It's unbelievable. https://t.co/lPkLq4c1pW
We're launching Monaco today.
Monaco automates customer acquisition and revenue growth for startups.
The platform disrupting sales with AI has finally arrived. https://t.co/mH03HIOdx8
The response to Software Factory has been stronger than expected, and we’re acting on the feedback and suggestions you've shared. Thanks to everyone that has signed up and used it so far.
We've just deployed our latest release:
• File Support: Added Delphi/Pascal file
In 2020, I hired McKinsey to teach me about the global energy transition. I learned a lot, but it cost me more than $2M.
After that experience, I decided to build my own internal research project at Social Capital called Learn With Me.
Over the last two years, my @socialcapital https://t.co/RDVaipINM3
@socialcapital critical minerals and american ai stack deep dives will be important for our 2025 annual letter. starting soon and aiming to publish by april
In 2020, I hired McKinsey to teach me about the global energy transition. I learned a lot, but it cost me more than $2M.
After that experience, I decided to build my own internal research project at Social Capital called Learn With Me.
Over the last two years, my @socialcapital https://t.co/RDVaipINM3
We need to overhaul higher education in America as follows:
1) For those about to pay: No more federal underwriting of student loans. Let the free market differentiate schools, degrees and costs. Without this, more kids will get trapped for life in debt they can never pay back
CZ's Untold Story: The Rise, Fall, and Redemption of Binance's Founder
@cz_binance sits down with @chamath for an amazing two hour interview!
(0:00) From China to Canada
(6:13) CZ’s Early Career: Shockingly Normal
(17:39) First Company in Shanghai
(23:08) Discovering https://t.co/ztCJpxY5uz
@chamath Not mentioning Ro Khanna (who is the representative of Silicon Valley, supports this tax and will be running for a VP), while blaming Newsom (who opposes it), is disingenuous.
I wonder what is behind this bias.
@jshakov Because Newsom could have actually done something to off-ramp this dumpster fire. Ro has zero capability to do anything as a federal congressman.
With Zuck’s move to Florida, California’s total taxable wealth from billionaires has plummeted to well under $1T from over $2T just a few weeks ago.
The loss of this tax revenue was totally avoidable but is now forever. All because Gavin Newsom stood motionless as this stupidly https://t.co/lJpzhTkMH6
@chamath We moved from punch cards to assembly, then to high-level languages like Python. Software Factory is the next logical step: moving from code to natural language.
We are finally teaching machines to speak "Human."
Most documentation rots because it’s expensive to maintain and easy to ignore.
Software Factory is documentation-first so teams can describe systems in English and let agents compile that intent into code.
It detects drift on every code push and keeps documentation synchronized https://t.co/UWN7TqWkvt
@chamath @mattob I drink fine wine and enjoy some fine California cannabis; I thought as someone who enjoys the finer things in life you might understand
Everyone I know that smokes pot has or is becoming an idiot, deranged, neurotic, psychotic or all of the above.
Not a single one is normal.
Can’t say the same for alcohol.
18 million Americans are smoking weed 21+ days a month
This is a full blown addiction crisis that even the NYT now says: "It’s Time for America to Admit That It Has a Marijuana Problem" https://t.co/FRGWFg6Bt3
Claim your kids Invest America | @TrumpAccounts when you file your taxes or simply do it now at https://t.co/0792qJroqb. Millions have already claimed their account. 🇺🇸🚀@SecScottBessent https://t.co/Nq2CiiMwKb
It's the dead of winter, and California just supplied a peak of 117% of its demand with solar alone and 136% of its demand from WindWaterSolar and over 100% of demand for 6 hours.
Gas output down 58% and batteries output up 303% in 2025 v '2023
Solar+batteries replacing gas https://t.co/5D0cQq2V9U
Solar and battery storage combined drove 81% of new U.S. grid capacity in 2025.
32.5 GW solar + 18.2 GW storage = 50.7 GW of zero-fuel infrastructure.
The grid isn't choosing renewables anymore.
It's economically opting to - with Texas leading the way https://t.co/64ypm02LTg
We've talked a lot about this on the Pod, but the Great SaaS Meltdown has started and there's no going back.
What exactly is happening?
In short, hi growth, low/no profitability SaaS is no longer a winning strategy because the big question mark is the durability of that growth https://t.co/i1CrYRiAJ3
To be productive in a world of AI and agents, the most important new system is the system of record that helps teams work together to design and agree on intent and context.
This is the necessary guardrail for AI and agents to get past demos and reliably make production quality
@chamath is the bestie that understands better than the others the reward of doing hard things. He appreciates fine wine because he knows the best grapes are the ones that struggle. He can appreciate comfort in a @LoroPiana because he truly knows discomfort. For these reasons I
After using Opus 4.6 and Codex 5.3, I can say the only missing piece for 100% software engineering automation is something like what @chamath is building at https://t.co/xffbSamdzR
@uraniumindustry yes we cover the problem of solar intermittency, which leads to load-balancing issues in the full Deep Dive.
can you compare nuclear vs solar in terms of cost and timelines?
@chamath Using the second most common substance on Earth to manufacture panels, combined with the drop in costs, makes solar a no-brainer.
Panels are so much cheaper than what I purchased decades ago (which still perform well). The replacements and upgrades are pennies compared to cost https://t.co/rPZvItaJug
@chamath Great article! To be fair, it was the Germans who really kicked it off in the 90s with very high subsidies for solar electricity, creating the first demand at scale, but unfortunately (for Germany) then soon leaving and losing all the manufacturing to China.
Software leverage doesn’t come from faster typing. It comes from stronger coordination.
Software Factory is a multiplayer platform: shared requirements, blueprints, and work orders flow to coding agents via MCP.
Alignment first. Then parallel execution.
Try it: https://t.co/SsZiAovXnx
Absolutely incredible…
CNN showing that the overwhelming majority of Americans support Voter ID:
🔴Republicans - 95%
🔵Democrats - 71%
Voter ID is not "racist". It’s common sense. https://t.co/KYFCLxNKg0
I believe the next logical step is for Tesla and SpaceX to merge, Subject to board, shareholder and regulatory approvals.
Back-of-the-napkin math:
Tesla: $1.75T
SpaceX: $1.25T
Combined valuation: $3T
Both Tesla and SpaceX shareholders receive shares in a new parent company, https://t.co/u46oOFwONz
@chamath How does this challenge the requirement when often the individual providing the requirement is unclear.
Does this require a prompt engineer (middle man)?
Replacing workers not completely with AI but with someone who knows how to use AI?
@chamath genuine question...
what's stopping me from running gpt + gemini deep research on my requirements then feeding the security gaps to claude code?
already paying $400/mo for these tools...why add another layer?
@BryanShankman I like trying to help make useful things when I think they could matter. I think making a factory for people to use as we go through the AI revolution feels like one of those moments.
Whether it will have been a good use of time will only be known after the fact…
It doesn’t matter how fast your code is generated if the requirements are unclear.
Shit in == shit out.
That’s why we designed Software Factory as a discipline, not as a convenience tool.
Our agents scrutinize your requirements and designs so that when you pass that context https://t.co/SPXnyipyfG
It doesn’t matter how fast your code is generated if the requirements are unclear.
Shit in == shit out.
That’s why we designed Software Factory as a discipline, not as a convenience tool.
Our agents scrutinize your requirements and designs so that when you pass that context https://t.co/SPXnyipyfG
@chamath Hey @chamath sounds very useful. Would you recommend it for a small business that has been building a lightweight ERP to run a vertically integrated CPG business? We manufacture and sell dietary supplements, foods, and sweeteners. We have tried the big players like fishbowl
@SteveKim1234 Software Factory is a complement to Cursor, claude code, etc
It does not matter how fast a coding agent can generate code if the user has not clearly defined what to build.
Software Factory brings a discipline and clarity to working with coding agents by capturing
18 months ago, I started 8090 with the goal of replacing/rewriting all the legacy software in the world with modern, useful alternatives.
We are making so much progress with many Enterprise customers that starting tomorrow, we will release our “Software Factory” into the wild
@chamath Modern engineering now ships in days, not months and it’s exposing how bloated SaaS is. But speed cuts both ways. Mistakes are instant, visible, and less forgivable. The edge now isn’t “fail fast,” it’s failing forward with guardrails, fast feedback, and recovery built in.
@JoeAdamsDCMS We can help you do it. You would need to have a precise, English language set of rules, heuristics and expectations that you can write down and commit to being accurate. SF and 8090 can take care of the rest.
@chamath Chamath is this for normies or experts?
You're charging $200/mo per seat + token usage. We already pay Cursor & Claude $200/mo and we don't want to pay more. Why would we pay for Software Factory instead of using our own AI pipeline is already yielding good results?
How do you
@PalmerLuckey Probably. While not trained on this explicitly, we’ve had similar requests for old Fortran and COBOL systems and we’ve made them work.
We have also been asked several times to do this for DB2 and we may be able to get to this this year.
Point is is that an Assembly Line won’t
What I read this week...
1) Neuralink has officially expanded its human clinical trials to 21 participants worldwide, marking a significant jump from the 12 reported late last year. The focus has shifted from basic cursor control to "Telepathy" for patients with ALS and spinal
What I read this week...
1) Neuralink has officially expanded its human clinical trials to 21 participants worldwide, marking a significant jump from the 12 reported late last year. The focus has shifted from basic cursor control to "Telepathy" for patients with ALS and spinal
18 months ago, I started 8090 with the goal of replacing/rewriting all the legacy software in the world with modern, useful alternatives.
We are making so much progress with many Enterprise customers that starting tomorrow, we will release our “Software Factory” into the wild
POD UP! Besties are back! 🚨
-- ICE Chaos in Minneapolis
-- Clawdbot Takeover
-- Why the Dollar is Dropping, Gold and Silver Ripping
-- California Governor Race
(0:00) Bestie intros + quick Davos recap
(9:55) ICE chaos in Minneapolis: aftermath and reactions
(45:54) https://t.co/axCs9nqYlu
“The fact that Tom Homan is going there is a really good thing. He was the same person that was awarded a medal by Obama for how he managed Obama's deportation process.”
“But open source is important because it's transparent. It gives everybody their own sovereignty, whether you're a company and, frankly, really more importantly, whether you're a country.”
“Because there's so much investment by Moonshot, that's the company that makes Kimikay two in that example, that you'll have so much drift in one version, your fork will be worthless.”
Folks. Can I explain something about world models? Seems like today might be a good day for that.
Advances in large-scale “world models” — whether developed by partners like Google or others — materially expand the frontier of interactive content creation. These models can
@chamath Berkshire was built on insurance float and cash flow. Businesses that *generated* capital Buffett could redeploy.
SpaceX and Tesla are both capital *consumers*. They compete for the same talent, the same Elon-hours, and the same investor dollars.
This isn't Berkshire. It's two
@pixelandpump Berkshire was built on safe leverage. That is what the float is.
Elon’s version of safe leverage is his brand. Gives him the same risk envelope.
@teslayoda Essentially an equity swap. Establish a value for SpaceX, establish a value for Tesla and then merge the cap tables. You can get MS or GS to run an auction to price discover the SpaceX price. Wrap the whole thing in a huge round to accompany the merger. It’s much cleaner than
One very fast way to catch up to China on this chart is to create a massive tax equity fund that pays for every US homeowner to have their own solar + storage.
1. We would add back 2-3 TWh to the grid and the chart below would quickly look like the US and China were neck and https://t.co/P1iyDOQYoE
@chamath Because of AI people have forgotten about quantum computing, but they are still working on it.
Don’t be mistaken this is another massive technological breakthrough waiting to surface
A merger between SpaceX and Tesla would instantly create the Berkshire Hathaway of the modern century.
The capital raising and operational efficiencies if both were together are obvious.
If this were to happen, it would also bring us one step closer to having one equity
NEW: The Department of Justice has joined the Students for Fair Admissions lawsuit against UCLA medical school—and it managed to get its hands on UCLA’s MCAT scores broken out by race.
In 2024, Hispanic matriculants only scored in 66th percentile. Asians scored in the 90th. https://t.co/agUIuIgOoy
is there a way to do a regression on doctor quality and mcat score? one could also look at malpractice claims vs mcat score as well... https://t.co/FbRKvGzKF1
@chamath wat
Companies are valued on future discounted cash flows which embeds future predictions on future revenue. RPO represents future revenue contracted that has not been recognized
So just set revenue to 0?
@obsidiancap1 There are future revenues and then there are future potential revenues. The latter is RPO and, imo, deserves to be heavily discounted for an appropriate margin of safety.
@chamath I’m wondering if Chamath recognizes how much of that $MSFT $625B RPO is IaaS and PaaS. Doesn’t seem like it. Nor does it seem like he recognizes that Copilot is currently the defacto enterprise and government agent that can disrupt classic SaaS. Or that Microsoft reorganized and
@PatrickMoorhead I would ask someone on your team who is more technically literate than you about T/s on Azure vs others and the general usefulness of Copilot.
You’re right about Microsoft’s compelling binding capability but this next wave will be a highly fragmented software stack.
Now, as
$MSFT CFO: "Commercial remaining performance obligations...increased to $625B, up 110% Y/Y, with a weighted average duration of ~2.5 years. Roughly 25% will be recognized in revenue in the next 12 months, up 39% Y/Y. The remaining portion recognized beyond the next 12 months https://t.co/F8ZPVCj9D8
This is a general comment about software companies:
If you look across the software industry, you see record levels of RPO - these are future revenues that are tied to a performance obligation before you can recognize it and before a customer has to pay you.
The problem with https://t.co/L6QiC0mm1i
Never ending taxation and regulations are how governments create structural poverty in those they govern.
Without capital or freedom, you become a serf who is completely reliant on their largesse.
@chamath Brother, you are and will continue to be okay. You are part of the 0.1%
I invite you to complain about the cost of living or homelessness. Also consider taxation part of them doing a good job, it is an anti hoarding mechanism which in turn helps maintain democracy.
This is total madness.
Enough taxation. Please start by governing well and then demand we give you more money because you're doing such a good job.
Asset seizures will only drive capital flight. Netherlands now joins California in the stupidity of its proposals. https://t.co/bZhVQNBtUB
Medical "normal ranges" manipulation:
1985: Fasting glucose over 140 mg/dL = diabetic
2003: Lowered to 126 mg/dL
Suddenly 2 million more diabetics
1985: Blood pressure over 160/100 = hypertension
2017: Lowered to 130/80
Suddenly 30 million more "patients"
1985: Cholesterol
The critical question is whether these decisions would stand up to scrutiny today based on everything we know.
If not, this is really devious and should be reversed. https://t.co/BgUXlqdTw8
In this episode, I go ALL-IN with @chamath and @NathalieDompe on leaving California, tech investments, their marriage, and a potential run for political office.
0:00 – Introduction
1:26 – California’s Wealth Exodus
2:00 – The “Red Pill” Moment
4:01 – Evolution of Their https://t.co/4sEzWrJvJ1
“So for me it was an evolution where I was like I can't believe I'm being lied to by this group of people whose sole responsibility is to hold truth to power.”
“So I did like a breast cancer thing where a third of all breast cancer surgeries, like lumpectomies, are written with an error, which means that for every ten, three women have to get another lumpectomy because they leave cancer behind. Of those three, another one.”
65 Arizona industry leaders.
One open letter.
One shared goal: Arizona’s energy future.
As our state navigates complex energy decisions, we wanted to share key facts: Data centers fund their own power infrastructure without burdening ratepayers. They create jobs, generate tax https://t.co/71rCz61Hap
This is the 1 GW data center we are building in AZ. AI is responsible for 100-200bp of GDP over the next few years in America yet there are many misconceptions and misinformation.
One important fact is that many data centers, including ours, pays our own way on energy. More https://t.co/ZOJhY2Ssps
BOMBSHELL: Gavin’s bad day just got worse. The insurance companies have joined the suit against Gavin Newsom + LA City for the Palisades Fire, adopting @415FirePhoto’s argument that Newsom’s agency is responsible for allowing the fire to rekindle. They have held out for a https://t.co/xvEN2STQ1c https://t.co/iUnwX06g5s
Newsom and California keep endlessly raising taxes and then waste it to their cronies. At no point did they think to actually spend even a few cents of more than $350B PER YEAR on filling the water tanks?!
Then comes the Palisades fire and guess what? The insurance companies are https://t.co/e8TNIKFNTA
Yesterday I set up an AI agent on a mac mini in my garage. Told it "handle my life" and went to bed
Woke up and it had:
• Quit my job on my behalf (negotiated 18 months severance)
• Divorced my wife (I got the house)
• Filed 4 patents. I have not been briefed on what they do https://t.co/QNeFLQQj94
He’s been non-stop railing on Newsom’s billionaire tax, but is @chamath actually leaving California?
Who wins in a fight Chamath or @NathalieDompe?
Does he think his SPAC strategy was stupid?
We’re going All-IN with Chamath & Nathalie.
@katiemillerpod | 6PM ET | Tuesday https://t.co/l9ssygX8LB
Thought exercise:
USA and China both win the AI race.
Our AIs are roughly equally capable: what we can build, they can also build. Whatever next gen weapons we design, they can also design.
This creates a detente where we each stick to our own hemispheres and leave each
clawdbot made me realize that nothing interesting about me lives on my local device and that google owns everything about me.
in other words a local ai assistant isn’t particularly useful and google will just win everything.
California is held captive by a handful of Machiavellian Union CEOs!
These union organizers should have the courage to inform their dues-paying members that they are trying to torch the economy by destroying the tech community in California with this "Billionaire Tax".
This
You can identify all the greatest countries in the world by asking a simple question:
"Is it cool to be rich there?"
Countries that celebrate success and still have strong safety nets: Singapore, Denmark and Switzerland.
Every country that has gotten the answer to this
California's Central Valley produces 80% of the world's almonds. Each almond requires 3.2 gallons of actual irrigation water to grow. Not rainfall. Actual tap water pumped from aquifers.
One gallon of almond milk requires 162 gallons of irrigation water. Compare that to dairy https://t.co/wA54U96qEB
This chart shows that the top 1% of California taxpayers are responsible for more than 33% of all tax dollars.
The top 0.1% of California taxpayers payers (~17,500 people) are responsible for more than 16% of all tax revenues.
The point is that only a few people, in a state https://t.co/KeFJOTKJd9
🚨 Dr. Oz Says a New Audit Found California Charged the Federal Government Over $1.5 BILLION For Free Healthcare for Illegals
“If you're on Medicare, you don't get free dental, you don't get free vision. You do if you're an illegal immigrant in California … We've audited https://t.co/jDqKHk4TEq
Insane.
We need a ballot proposition to vote on this so California politicians can be shown that none of us want high state taxes to begin with but especially when it’s used to pay for elective healthcare for illegal immigrants while American citizens get less for paying into https://t.co/HssFZ0TgFG
What I read this week...
1) JGB Yields Break New Highs Explained
On January 19, 2026, the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market experienced what U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as a 6-standard deviation move.
The 40-year yield spiked by 26-basis-points in a
What I read this week...
1) JGB Yields Break New Highs Explained
On January 19, 2026, the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market experienced what U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as a 6-standard deviation move.
The 40-year yield spiked by 26-basis-points in a
@chamath Everyone should read the full bill…
It has little to do with billionaire tax and everything to do with creating the system that lets the state seize wealth from all classes.
https://t.co/L7wsQ3mf9m
This bill is an attempt at creating a nanny state. It’s an assault on hi agency people and freedom. That is the opposite of democracy.
Other than bitter losers, are there any credible people that actually believes this stuff? https://t.co/CvWc2Nf0EM
NEW FROM MIKE SOLANA: 21 billionaires break their silence about California’s proposed asset seizure ballot prop. (And yes, they’re leaving.)
An informal poll conducted in the largest billionaire Signal chat suggests 70% of California billionaires will leave the state if the https://t.co/gheMBBN1E7
The California budget is hosed.
Now, the only place to look is the middle class and what should worry an average Californian is that this idiotic “Billionaire Tax” actually allows the legislature to apply it to the middle class as they see fit.
Buyer beware… https://t.co/EoyAEvXs6f
@chamath Please research Graphene for a future substack.
It appears that it's day is finally arriving. One company has even figured out how to make it pure and scalable. They have set up across town from Tesla in Austin.
Perhaps $AXEA could even help mainstream Graphene.
Great to finally welcome @elonmusk to #Davos.
His conversation with Larry Fink on AI, robotics and the future of technology reflected both ambition and optimism about what lies ahead.
Innovation is moving fast, and with the right leadership and collaboration, it can be a https://t.co/ShS3IH2GGv
The blue states in the image below have electricity prices that are as much as 4x the electricity rates of the red states.
This is not due to any technological inferiority in those blue states but specific policy decisions that have driven competition out and prices up. https://t.co/T7AJZaTr14
NEWS: U.S. insurer Lemonade has announced that it will offer a 50% rate cut for drivers of @Tesla vehicles when FSD is steering because it had data showing it reduced accidents.
“A car that sees 360 degrees, never gets drowsy, and reacts in milliseconds can’t be compared to a https://t.co/CwyGCptTcn
I mentioned this earlier but there are a lot of interesting consequences to autonomous driving. One of them is that insurance companies start to look more financially predictable...they charge lower premiums, but they also pay out less. This will flow through to reinsurers as https://t.co/Z71b3Bhp9E
.@davidsacks47 blasts California's so-called "Billionaire Tax Act"
“This is this is not a tax, this is an asset seizure... Never been anything like this before in American history.
People are trying to minimize it by saying it's a one-time. It's not a one-time. It's a https://t.co/1sfqAvVfP0
A first of its kind asset seizure tax is illegal and unconstitutional. If this makes the California ballot in November and passes because voters don't know any better, it will then just meander through the courts for the next 10 years because hundreds of well funded lawsuits https://t.co/fm6MOwMnSY
We've talked a lot about this on the Pod, but the Great SaaS Meltdown has started and there's no going back.
What exactly is happening?
In short, hi growth, low/no profitability SaaS is no longer a winning strategy because the big question mark is the durability of that growth https://t.co/i1CrYRiAJ3
@Cernovich What have these billionaire founders done for the community? They haven’t built anything. Not so long ago, the San Jose developer billionaires built schools and parks - things neighbors appreciate. Jobs are great - for foreigners. Look at the demographics - Silicon Valley white
@George_Daisy31 @Cernovich sadly, you're not wrong. i've been trying to make this point to them as well. we need a better social license to operate and right now we aren't doing our part.
Democrats now control the legislature and Governor's office in Virginia.
Here are just a few of the bills they've introduced
- New 4.3% sales tax on Uber Eats, Amazon, etc deliveries.
- New sales tax on admissions to a wide variety of businesses.
- Create two new higher tax
Zohran Mamdani: "What I've proposed is that we raise $10 billion to pay for our entire economic agenda and start to Trump proof our city… And we will do so in two key ways."
https://t.co/WkinqLKovb
The great thing about the current moment is that there will be a Polymarket tied to every problem that a politician says will be solved by raising taxes.
Whatever we lose by paying more, we can earn back by betting on what we know will happen: nothing. https://t.co/hF78zPEVwk
Not sure how many people know this but, in SF, a union is proposing fines for companies whose CEO is paid more than 100x their median employee.
Again, like in the asset seizure tax, the proceeds would be to pay for various services that could be funded if there was instead a
To my billionaire friends: keep your receipts. (jk I don’t have billionaire friends.)
But seriously: 4 years later CA is hunting down those who left.
“Narrative of the circumstances surrounding you becoming non-residents”… what a joke.
This is what a failing state looks like. https://t.co/VWGIxgd5kw
Today, NYSE is proud to announce the development of a platform for trading and on-chain settlement of tokenized securities.
NYSE’s new digital platform will enable tokenized trading experiences, including 24/7 operations, instant settlement, orders sized in dollar amounts, and
@chamath @Boochao Come on man you do a Pod every week sharing lots of great ideas for nothing.
You give away more value than you receive.
Just admit you don't like idiotic comments like this guys. 😄
@chamath Private wealth doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Roads, courts, patents, police, ports, the internet, GPS, and contract law are all publicly funded. Billionaires don’t operate without the state - they operate on top of it.
No more winners!
They make the rest of us feel bad. Instead of self improvement, I want to wallow in resentment of you - because you are a winner! How dare you!!!
I think its time for everyone to be an equal loser. Let's teach our kids to be losers. How great it will be!
@chamath California must be so terrible that it gives far more to the federal government than it gets back.
In fact, California taxpayers are subsidising nearly 15 Republican-led red states that take more federal money than they contribute.
Blue states fund America.
Red states complain
@lancelachlan States don’t fund anything. Hi agency Americans build companies, create things, make money and pay taxes. That is what funds EVERYTHING. Everyone and everything else is cosplay.
The fight over the “Billionaire Tax” has uncovered the following truth:
A small group of people are trying to normalize being an unaccomplished grifter who can’t make hard decisions and would rather take from winners even if it’s illegal or unconstitutional. In doing so, it
California is a bunch of elected grifters appointing their friends to NGOs who also grift while trying to distract people by calling anyone who works hard a grifter or an evil billionaire so they can tax and steal everything without being caught.
This state is a fucking joke. https://t.co/f72v2fj2Wa
More than 1M Chinese-raised citizens may be able to vote in US elections by exploiting birth tourism on US islands in the Pacific.
Around 70% of new births on some islands belong to Chinese tourists who exploit the visa process, granting their children American “citizenship.” https://t.co/Zhbd8AExJb
SHOULD GOVERNMENT BE ALLOWED TO TAKE PRIVATE PROPERTY?
“People are waking up to the fact that the asset seizure tax is an elimination of private property rights, that fundamentally what you're saying [is] that private property now becomes public property.
Because as soon as https://t.co/qLiLbQJeoN
I’m more convinced we need to get the BTA on the ballot in California.
Do people want an asset seizure tax? Especially one that politicians can apply arbitrarily in the future?
Talk about cutting your nose off to spite your face.
But anyways, let’s vote on it.
NB: if the https://t.co/e0MuyD4fOU
@chamath Serious question: if the state can set a retroactive obligation date today, what stops that tool from being used on any unpopular group tomorrow?
@chamath The same ballot proposition process that keeps your property tax low is what is keeping this ballot proposition going forward. First, you should thank voters for keeping your taxes low, and then you need to convince the voters to defeat this initiative if you don’t like it .
@constans My income taxes in California are already the highest in the country. If they want to raise those more, they can do so and I’ll likely pay it as I have done for the past 25 years.
But a retroactive asset seizure won’t stand.
@chamath For the 50 millionth time, it is not something that professional, elected lawmakers put on the ballot. It is a union using the citizens’ open ballot initiative process. The governor and legislature can’t take it off, the union can take it off if the governor appeases them somehow
Billionaires cannot - cannot - be the primary spokespeople against the Billionaire Tax Act
Billionaire tweets are to the left what liberal tears are to the right, if that makes sense
A different strategy is needed
I disagree.
Billionaires should stop hiding. They should be extra vocal. Let’s vote on the BTA and let the chips fall where it may.
Door 1: Status Quo.
Take the BTA off the ballot and focus on cutting waste, fraud and abuse and keep the existing system going.
Door 2: Chaos. https://t.co/fWUYhhqToQ
Billionaires cannot - cannot - be the primary spokespeople against the Billionaire Tax Act
Billionaire tweets are to the left what liberal tears are to the right, if that makes sense
A different strategy is needed
@lulumeservey I disagree.
Just confront the truth. Don’t mask it anymore.
The electorate should vote knowing that on one side is the frail system they have now and on the other is chaos.
I say chaos because there will be decades and hundreds of well funded lawsuits at the state and
“It's a very different culture than the other Middle East countries. It's a fundamentally different religion. It's a fundamentally different language.”
“The next major thing is when you actually create a 100 or $200,000,000,000 tax equity vehicle, and you have them completely subsidize and pay for the electricity costs of homeowners.”
“I think the president should try to create a $3.04, $500,000,000,000 tax equity fund and help eliminate the electricity costs of 50 to a 100,000,000 American households.”
“If you look at the Trail of Breadcrumbs, my belief, there's gonna be a renaissance in silicon. Young, small teams building decode silicon can make a fortune over the next ten to twenty years.”
Actor David Spade raising awareness that a bill was introduced in California to audit where the $20+ billion dollars in missing homeless money went, it passed but then Gavin Newsom VETOED the bill to block the investigation
Yes, this really happened. He blocked bills for an https://t.co/uZEmiQ07fG
@chamath Free electricity? A cruel hoax. Trump's OBBBA killed the 30% solar credit, forcing families to finance $32,500 systems at 7.2% interest. Chamath's $500B fund covers only $5k/home—a mere 15%.
OBBBA gifts $114B yearly to the top 1% as electricity prices soar 6.4%. This tax equity
@xray_media Completely incorrect. Please have whichever foreigner is responsible for this Bot account manage the AI hallucinations.
The OBBBA kept the credit for TPA on residential solar.
@chamath The second order effect is massive for AI infrastructure. Every terawatt hour of residential demand moved off-grid is a terawatt hour available for datacenters. The same policy that gives homeowners free electricity accelerates AI compute capacity. Both sides win.
@MxKing809 @grok I made bets 5+ ago in solar and in batteries that could benefit.
My view is that America is becoming hundreds of millions of distributed utilities. Every home will eventually be a utility. Every company as well.
This fund could accelerate this eventual outcome for sure.
@chamath Do you think this can be done? It would be awesome.
We've been running solar and battery storage at the ranch over 10 years now, plenty of electricity and it's all been free. https://t.co/0P5knjqsHX
@chiropractic It’s up to the Mag7. The tax law allows them to do this now and offset taxes dollar for dollar…so it costs them incrementally nothing really.
@Based_Jedi The Mag7 paid $100B in taxes in 2024. They can use the next few years of taxes, offset them entirely and pay for the whole country to no longer pay for electricity costs.
Free electricity for every American? Chamath explains how it’s possible.
@chamath:
“I think the president should try to create a $300B-$500B tax equity fund and help eliminate the electricity costs of 50-100M American households.”
“If you actually go to solar and storage, for https://t.co/JwgUAMReeC
The next shoe to drop?
A $500B Tax Equity Fund can pay the electricity costs of all US homeowners forever by paying for each home to get solar + storage.
If this happens, it will be historic.
The OBBBA already has the tax law codified to enable the Mag7 to do this right now. https://t.co/QreShqd9oX
🚨 POD UP!
-- Iran's Breaking Point
-- Trump's Greenland Acquisition
-- Solving Energy Prices
-- Billionaire Tax Backlash
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(4:18) Iran's breaking point: regime change coming?
(14:28) Solving energy prices: Microsoft is first hyperscaler to "pay its own https://t.co/8wzirHy790
$BMNR holds now roughly 4% of the biggest visionary media company in the world.
@BitMNR invested alongside one of the greatest investors of our time: @chamath
@fundstrat playing 4D chess. https://t.co/aeEiqdupIT
I haven't really talked about this, but about five years ago, I invested $45M in a Series A that created Beast Industries by bringing together all of Jimmy's various business interests under one umbrella.
Creating Beast Industries allowed us to streamline our capital allocation https://t.co/1zg8RY9nG7
The lawsuit between Elon Musk and OpenAI is surfacing some pretty interesting evidence:
OpenAI's Greg Brockman: "It'd be wrong to steal the non-profit from him. to convert to a b-corp without him. that'd be pretty morally bankrupt. and he's really not an idiot." Days later, https://t.co/22nF73g62p https://t.co/Eicz1EAEDc
Newsom has announced a $348.9 billion budget. That's $147.5 billion larger than when he took office, a 73.2% increase. Spending has grown 2.5 faster than the rate of inflation. This isn't normal, even for blue states.
The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst says the budget is
Don’t forget about the unfunded pension liabilities.
California is on the hook for $1T in pension liabilities. It’s totally unclear how it pays these obligations.
We need a hard reset on our approach to government in California. What we’ve been doing ISN’T WORKING! https://t.co/fDi2CinV5Y
California started with the Gold Rush and might end with the Golden Exit.
it has been underreported how much wealth has left CA because of the asset seizure tax being proposed.
a private poll was conducted amongst affected individuals a few days ago and 80-90% surveyed said
As we predicted in our annual predictions episode to start the year.
Unless someone shows up with super conductivity or carbon nanotubes, copper is the only game in town and AI is a huge demand driver for a very under-resourced material. https://t.co/Gf6EAuE1hO
Our Lithium Refinery ushers in energy independence for North America
Regionalized access to critical battery minerals brings jobs, cuts emissions & helps accelerate our mission https://t.co/zy8eFX7i3c
These motherfuckers really do seem to see and solve every problem differently than everyone else.
Really inspiring.
Congrats Tesla. https://t.co/lvxewpsrHu
@chamath It is an underreported story what an incredible moron you are @chamath? Absolutely, but you're doing a good job in self-reporting, keep posting please
@chamath Hey @chamath Im surprised seeing someone of your status posting this as a fact. can you share all the details and paper trail.
It is undeniable you are usually early to many things.
This is really exciting and I’m personally very happy for my friends Andrew Feldman and G42/MGX.
I have said this earlier on @theallinpod but we are about to see a renaissance in decode silicon. This is a necessary step as we make AI the default stack for applications over the https://t.co/lyCb6eojBr
To be sure, this has been an under reported story. The facts, disclosures and especially the paper trail on this one is pretty nuts. https://t.co/dnTMkmrUY8
A conversation I had with the founder of a company anyone in tech would recognize.
The California wealth tax, as currently written, would literally take 100% of his net worth and leave him dead broke.
This is insanity. https://t.co/ooTcYaxvUW
This may be a good moment to let people know that the reason this tax is being proposed in California in the first place is to pay for healthcare costs for illegal aliens.
As of the latest California budget, the Governor of California has tightened eligibility. A healthcare https://t.co/BswZUHYaTd
The All In guys are fond of the saying, "There is no crying in the casino." I would say yes, right back at you. You funded Democrats and the people who censored, locked down, and tormented us. That was your political gamble. Now you want to cry? Take your own advice, thank you!
@Cernovich Don’t paint all of us with the same brush.
To be clear, I donated 50x more to recall Newsom than any other state political contribution. My two state level democratic donations amounted to ~ $4,000 and went to a friend and another to a former coworker. Basically deminimis.
The @CAgovernor and I have had our policy disagreements over the past few years on issues like his opposition to Prop 36, but he is spot on here. This so-called wealth tax is going to backfire and middle class taxpayers are going to be forced to pick up the bill. We need to close
Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
It’s only an absolutely horrible idea that makes Peter Thiel, Sergey Brin, Larry Page, Reid Hoffman, David Sacks and Gavin Newsom all agree.
This proposed “Billionaire Tax” will blow a massive hole in the California deficit and ruin the tech https://t.co/4ZJ939iXBT
The architects of California’s “Billionaire Wealth Tax” ballot proposition quietly amended language in their proposal which, if successful, would permanently end the concept of founder-controlled startups in the state — a technology industry kill switch. https://t.co/mu7p0ShdCg
You all use Uber, DoorDash and every other tech innovation made here but now you want the creators of these services to go bankrupt doing it??
That math doesn’t math.
Everyone that is potentially touched by this will now leave and all that will result is a massive hole in https://t.co/pI6U2alj65
As we spent more money on education in California, did our kids become better educated?
2003 Spend: $14,400 per pupil
2024 Spend: $24,000 per pupil
Unfortunately, the answer is “NO”.
Inflation adjusted per-pupil education spending in California increased 66.67% over the past https://t.co/q3zfqQhUBt
X is the best source for financial news -- and hundreds of billions of dollars are deployed based on things people read here.
We are building Smart Cashtags that allow you to specify the exact asset (or smart contract) when posting a ticker. From Timeline, users will be able to https://t.co/nFtuA2ISqJ
Has your lived experience in California gotten 3x better in the past 20 years? Because your taxes and borrowing have gone up to triple spending in that same time.
California Population:
2004: 35.6M
2024: 39.4M
California Spending:
2004: $155B ($4,350/person)
2025: $510B https://t.co/UCFVnpEZuj
Are you sitting down?
California NGOs:
213,720
$593.4 billion/year
New York NGOs:
132,097
$445.8 billion/year
Minnesota NGOs:
41,267
$124.2 billion/year
New Jersey NGOs:
56,332
$113 billion/year
Washington NGOs:
44,332
$139.5 billion/year
Just a few.
Imagine the fraud…
If, per the IRS sampling, 20% of these NGOs have compliance (aka audit) issues, this would mean up to $120B of spending in California could be subject to waste, fraud and abuse.
This is 25% of the California budget for FY25-26.
Per Grok:
- The post draws from ProPublica's https://t.co/DlX81y5E7n
Over the last decade, California’s spending overall has doubled, while its population has stayed FLAT. The state’s education budget has doubled, while the number of students has DECLINED.
Bloated budgets on the backs of billionaires.
Now they’re gone. Think those Democrats https://t.co/BAH7ObQpdZ
“Over the last decade, California’s spending overall has doubled, while its population has stayed FLAT. The state’s education budget has doubled, while the number of students has DECLINED.” https://t.co/lBa8yT3oCV
David Friedberg: It’s totally reasonable to say billionaires aren’t paying their fair share — but the uncomfortable truth is why. Ultra-wealthy individuals don’t live on income, they live by borrowing against assets. No sale, no capital gains, no tax. That’s the loophole nobody https://t.co/56gJlSrQmc
@rokhanna comments on the wealth tax were an inflection point. They mattered less as policy than as signal.
States don’t lose capital primarily because taxes rise. They lose it when people conclude the rules are becoming unpredictable and illegitimate.
A reality check on https://t.co/fTXTj3NG6U
@chamath @cryptosmiff Those 40 families have an opportunity to become legends and achieve greatness far beyond anything their wealth can acquire. They must fight to bring common sense back to California and eliminate the Democrat stronghold. Running is not the answer.
@chamath Understand they moved thier residency. Wouldn’t they still have to pay income tax if they even partly work in California. Is $google going to move thier office out of California? If not, I am assuming Sergey is going to the office and mingle with folks and contribute . Wouldn’t
@chamath There’s another way to look at this. Until now, the supermajority legislature in Sacramento has been in political lockstep with the concentrated wealth, power, and ideology of the Bay Area. As that wealthy tax base leaves, Sacramento will move down the food chain and increasingly
@CAlowdown State income taxes on the middle class would need to go to 20% to make up for no/minimal income tax revenue from Billionaires. That’s the math.
If folks want this, then so be it.
@cryptosmiff To be more specific, it’s about 40 people/families. I suspect more will move in Q1.
Whatever you believe about wealth and inequality, the math ain’t mathin’ anymore because of this exodus. However much in “extra” taxes they were targeting with this ballot initiative isn’t valid
@dotkrueger The proposed tax starts with billionaires but is allowed to apply to others as the legislature sees fit. So eventually “rich” will include everyone.
Collectively, the amount of Billionaire wealth that has left California in the last month (!) is now in excess of $700B.
That means the $2T of California wealth they expected to tax is now down to $1.3T and falling quickly. I would not be surprised if 2026 ended with less than https://t.co/J0qIYrKJXB
Unfortunate update as of today:
More calls from friends. The total wealth that has left California is now $1T.
We had $2T of billionaire wealth just a few weeks ago. Now, 50% of that wealth has left - taking their income tax revenue, sales tax revenue, real estate tax revenue https://t.co/IQZFieRgL7
@chamath Can you comment on whether fleeing people are willing to sell their expensive house for cheap to get out from the extra tax on expensive houses? Is anyone willing to take a loss to avoid paying the tax?
⚠️Santa Monica California is effectively bankrupt after homeless/criminals they invited (free housing by the beach!) destroyed business revenue & they owe $300-500 MILLION to victims of a single molester.
Despite that, paying $259,000 a year + great benefits to “housing & human https://t.co/CANekFtXEo https://t.co/QUr0xmC1kn
Santa Monica is under dire financial distress as it confronts settling a massive sexual abuse scandal of children by a city employee on top of the rampant waste, fraud and abuse that is already stretching the city towards insolvency.
“The City has been under increasing pressure https://t.co/JR7xZlLNIr
What I Read This Week…
1) xAI Raises $20B and Invests $20B
On January 6th, xAI announced that their upsized Series E round finalized from the $15B target to $20B.
Approximately 600 million MAU are now reached across X and the Grok apps. Grok 5 is currently under training and
What I Read This Week…
1) xAI Raises $20B and Invests $20B
On January 6th, xAI announced that their upsized Series E round finalized from the $15B target to $20B.
Approximately 600 million MAU are now reached across X and the Grok apps. Grok 5 is currently under training and
🚨This account from a Venezuelan security guard loyal to Nicolás Maduro is absolutely chilling—and it explains a lot about why the tone across Latin America suddenly changed.
Security Guard: On the day of the operation, we didn't hear anything coming. We were on guard, but https://t.co/392mQuakYV
2026 BESTIE PREDICTIONS ARE HERE! 🚨
The Besties forecast the biggest trends of 2026: business, politics, tech, and more!
(0:00) California exodus, asset seizure tax, Besties to Austin?
(12:27) Biggest Political Winner
(17:45) Biggest Political Loser
(32:15) Biggest Business https://t.co/K71WBIn4C1
FDA Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary says the FDA has intentionally been lying to us for 16 years about fat being bad for you
He says this allowed Big Pharma to sell more drugs
“They suppressed the data for 16 years. Two other large studies failed to show an association. Finally, https://t.co/jRuKfJt1O0
Collectively, the amount of Billionaire wealth that has left California in the last month (!) is now in excess of $700B.
That means the $2T of California wealth they expected to tax is now down to $1.3T and falling quickly. I would not be surprised if 2026 ended with less than https://t.co/J0qIYrKJXB
The California Governor or State AG needs to sue to get this "Billionaire Tax" potential ballot initiative immediately scuttled.
They proposed a tax assuming 225 people with $2T of wealth would just sit around and allow an asset seizure. Turns out $700B already left in the last https://t.co/IQZFieROAF
I can understand the pro wealth tax side being dismissive about Sacks and Thiel's departure plans, but this is really bad.
Google founders were quietly paying their 13.3% income tax, but the SEIU billionaire tax was a step too far. And what if their company changes HQs? https://t.co/31egHvDAwM
California failure in leadership strikes again.
Make no mistake, the middle class will now be asked to make up for their lost tax revenue.
Complete unforced error even considering this ballot initiative. It needs to be removed. Had it been killed even a month ago, the state https://t.co/RpNxNZ3qdP
@chamath What nobody is discussing is the second order effects. When billionaires leave, they take their networks, investments, and job creation with them. The startups they would have funded, the talent they would have attracted, all gone. The visible loss is 700 billion. The invisible
NEWS:
Google co-founder Sergey Brin is cutting ties with California.
In the 10 days before Christmas, an entity connected to Brin terminated or moved 15 California LLCs that oversee some of his business interests or investments out of the state.
With @RMac18 + @hknightsf. https://t.co/BcwpJcGCfg
Collectively, the amount of Billionaire wealth that has left California in the last month (!) is now in excess of $700B.
That means the $2T of California wealth they expected to tax is now down to $1.3T and falling quickly. I would not be surprised if 2026 ended with less than https://t.co/J0qIYrKJXB
@chamath @theallinpod Unless you consider CalPERS nearly $100B in Private Equity, at risk, 79% funded status is not quite “dangerously underfunded”
The real question is, “is the portfolio marked accurately?” And who is steering the ship?
@Beiwatch @theallinpod you may be surprised to learn that the california legislature changed the way the pension can report how funded it is. in short, if you sensitize to normal market interest rates and assumptions etc, the pension is woefully underfunded.
Trump's Tariff Staircase - Why India doesn’t have a deal yet.
Great moment from @howardlutnick explaining how tariff deals happen behind the scenes: https://t.co/yXyLnV76YL
Lots of talk on X and some opportunistic edits about tariffs and India from our interview with Sec Lutnick.
Here is the full 4min clip to set the record straight. https://t.co/sHqu9N8zFV
🚨 CalPERS, the California public employee, retirement system, has a $166 BILLION (not a typo!!) shortfall.
So who do they bring onto to fix it? A DEI hire committed to bringing more DEI hires who invest based on “equity” & other DEI nonsense, not future gains.
💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸 https://t.co/o8601wvXnf
As we’ve warned before on @theallinpod, the California pension system is dangerously underfunded and will fail at some point in the next few years.
These decisions will make the problem worse.
The politicians need to fix this asap. https://t.co/nvJGvTfpcq
@theallinpod @chamath @howardlutnick I don't know how I feel about Lutnick but he does seem extremely competent and all the Indians raging in replies is a big W
@PlsNoBanImJokin @theallinpod @howardlutnick Howard is a huge asset to Pax America. But more importantly he’s an amazing guy that fought through some incredible adversity post 9-11.
The All-In Interview is BACK! 🚨
@chamath sits down with Commerce Secretary @howardlutnick to talk the 2026 agenda
-- Biggest outstanding trade deals
-- Could we see 5% (or 6%!?) GDP growth this year?
-- Fraud crackdown
++ much more!
(0:00) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick https://t.co/OCR84Cjgd6
@chamath Carried interest, sure. Margin loans too. But let’s not pretend this fixes the core problem: California’s spending appetite is infinite and the bureaucracy is a black hole. If you keep hiking taxes to feed the machine, the productive people will keep leaving. Cut the damn waste.
a counter proposal to the "billionaire tax", aka the asset seizure tax, which is gutting the state of hi income tax payers, would be to tax carried interest or tax the use of margin loans. both would solve the revenue goal without driving hi value californians out of the state.
@chamath estate taxes are a better form of 'wealth taxes' that still help redistribute wealth equitably while mitigating issues with liquidity and valuations
@chamath Well technically you kept promoting Dem candidates in the state for so long that eventually California is becoming like the UK
You need to take accountability for your previous actions
@dissectmarkets which ones specifically are you referring to? in california, i've given a few thousand to chris kelly and eric garcetti - one is a former coworker from facebook and one is a friend. otherwise, i've donate more than $200k to gavin newsom's recall. otherwise, i have not given to
Wow, the UK economy is literally falling apart.
Every day, 45 tax-paying millionaires leave the country, taking countless jobs with them.
Every day, 3,000 new welfare recipients are added.
And the left’s answer is a wealth tax? In which parallel universe do they live? https://t.co/ABaIRvNjLR
🚨Fraud Investigation Announcement:
Next week our team is traveling to the fraud capital of the world: California.
The fraud uncovered in Minnesota was very bad and led to the destruction of Tim Walz’ career. But Gavin Newsom’s California is far worse.
The American taxpayer https://t.co/BnQkiP7vr5
@chamath Definitely do not stop statins, and preventative LDL-cholesterole lowering therapies in general, based on these arguments, as they clearly misrepresent the facts.
The AMORIS study only showed that extremely low total cholesterol was negatively associated with the chance of https://t.co/RKdZ9pav1r
@bryan_johnson I funded one of the original PCSK9 studies! It’s a miracle drug to the extent you believe in that kind of thing.
I am a believer in it and may add it to my regimen (different MoA).
I’m curious if you would ever try a combo of a statin + PCSK9 + GLP1?
The Socialists are coming for America's Middle Class
Last week, the Besties discussed how California's "Billionaire Tax" was really a socialist Trojan Horse to go after the private assets of the middle class.
Why?
Total net worth of US billionaires: $8 trillion
Total net https://t.co/rYnXjNge1j https://t.co/wBsW2b7D0q
Total net worth of US billionaires: $8 trillion
Total net worth of everyone else: $170 trillion
The math ain’t mathin’ if you think this is just about billionaires… https://t.co/LmSDJC7t9V
@chamath I think any logical tax paying citizen can agree that govt. spending should be transparent. I have long been a proponent of putting spending on the blockchain for anyone to see. That doesn't change the fact that waste is still an objective term. Who measures the outcome? You?
@igotgas4sale I agree with you that interpretation of waste sits on a spectrum. I’d rather have THAT debate than the one we are currently having with is “take more; account for none of it”
U-Haul just released its annual "Growth Index" for all 50 states. For the 6th straight year, California is ranked 50th. We have the highest rate of people moving out versus moving in.
Newsom has turned the greatest state in the country into the most popular state to leave.
It’s not just the Billionaires that are leaving California. It’s anyone who is exhausted of paying 13.3% state tax with very little accountability.
Wait until California residents fully understand the crazy new tax schemes they are planning like the 5% asset seizure tax. https://t.co/4eX15XDmKV
@chamath 100% in favor of eliminating waste. The problem is that the billionaire class believes things like "meals on wheels" and cancer research for children is waste (as demonstrated by DOGE). Waste is an objective term. Fraud is not, and should absolutely be eliminated and prosecuted
@igotgas4sale I disagree about th beliefs of billionaires but how about setting beliefs aside and instead agree that everything should pass an audit and the flow of dollars should be transparent for anyone to inspect. Fraud would become obvious as would waste - which I define here as spending
@chamath You know those 80/20 issues you guys talk about? Yeah, this is one of those and you're on the wrong side. Nobody has any sympathy for you folks right now...People are struggling. Our "trickle down" experiment didnt work. So now...it's over
@igotgas4sale Why aren’t you in favor of first ending the waste? Then figure out the real hole and fill it with well designed taxes. I suspect we find there is no hole. Without waste there is a surplus.
California is disguising a proposed asset seizure tax as a "Billionaire Tax," but the math doesn't add up.
They wanted $100B from 200 Californian billionaires but $500B in wealth has already fled the state, leaving a $25B hole in their plan.
And it’s still only a proposal. https://t.co/Ygy3mX7Tys
📢The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission welcomes aboard its newest member.📢
“We welcome Taylor Budowich and look forward to benefiting from his deep government and public relations expertise."
- Chair Randy Schriver & Vice Chair @michael_kuiken. https://t.co/Yeap8tXhEx
SHOCKER in San Diego:
2 out of 2 childcares reviewed so far had ZERO children present during state inspection. ABDULAHI, SUAD FAMILY CHILD CARE had only the owner & her own baby present. Owner was cited for missing school enrollment verification for 6 out of 6 enrolled children. https://t.co/Y5z0reIs2r
🔥BREAKING: The secret to living to 100+? HIGH CHOLESTEROL!
A massive Swedish study tracking over 800,000 people for 35 years just revealed: Every single centenarian had HIGH total cholesterol. The higher your LDL, the longer you live.
Mind blown yet? Dr. Ben Bikman exposes the https://t.co/bY6SaA73Op
It should not be lost on citizen journalists and anyone who finds waste, fraud and abuse of taxpayer dollars offensive that starting with an investigative report by Chris Rufo in Nov-25 followed by a viral YT video by Nick Shirley, the sitting Governor of Minnesota has
Tomorrow at @uwaterloo, @8090solutions is bringing our Software Factory to campus. Come join us:
- Meet our engineering team in person
- See how we use it internally to ship faster
- Network for internships and full-time roles
I will be attending virtually and hosting an
To make matters worse, California has extended COVID-era childcare payments into mid 2026. That means a daycare can have 2 kids now but still get paid as if they had 19 kids like they did before the pandemic. And no, these aren’t tax credits, they’re straight-up checks. There’s
California politicians are constantly raising our taxes. In part to pay for this kind of nonsense.
Here’s a reasonable idea: only use our tax dollars to pay for the childcare of real children that exist. https://t.co/2J0ukmDGsa
Chamath: Two terms you need to pay attention to in AI are Prefill and Decode
“There's two terms that I think you're going to hear a ton about over these next few years.”
“The first term is prefill, and the next is decode.”
“What prefill and decode are, are two very distinct https://t.co/CdBbRY6zIO
I crunched the data. Again.
I made a map. Again.
The picture is now even CLEANER.
States without voter ID requirements are 16x more likely to offer welfare benefits to illegal immigrants than states requiring ID (67% vs 4%, p<0.0001).
Dems are importing and paying illegals https://t.co/aSkmqiDmWI
Newsom has actively tried to conceal waste and fraud in homelessness spending. He vetoed a bill to require reporting on cost and outcome data, which had passed the Legislature unanimously and was recommended by the State Auditor after finding the state lost track of $24 billion. https://t.co/6GmKFEkBHw
This is curious.
Why would Newsom veto a unanimous bill from the California legislature requiring reporting on cost and outcome data on the Homelessness spending?? https://t.co/cQM7d9d6Oh
Starting January 1, Californians will pay a new fee every time they buy a product with a non-removable battery – whether it’s a power tool, a PlayStation, or even a singing greeting card. https://t.co/8L9x2QjUrA
📸 Tayfun Coskun https://t.co/eO25QewNxw
@inertiallyfluid @chamath Am I supposed to have some sort of sympathy for billionaire that might only have 27 instead of $28B? Sorry having trouble finding it.
@jesse_altman @inertiallyfluid No, but if short sighted tax policy blows a hole in California’s budget, it will need to be filled by a) more debt and/or b) more taxes from the middle class class who are the largest collective taxpayers in the state.
If that happens, it would have been better to shear the
Contracts Update!
Over the last 3 days, agencies terminated and descoped 55 wasteful contracts with a ceiling value of $1.6B and savings of $542M, including a $47M State Dept. program support contract for “Africa / Djibouti, Somalia armored personnel carriers and Somalia https://t.co/JgF8YR6ht4
What if …
What if the real fiscal revolution isn’t higher taxes or austerity, but rooting out fraud? Imagine if the bond vigilantes finally woke up to the fact that reducing government fraud and waste could shrink the deficit faster than any rate hike or spending cap.
The
I think this is the most asymmetric upside bet in the market now. Position yourself smartly and you can make 10-1000x with relative ease.
How?
Even if politicians try to bury the fraud, the bond market can’t ignore it. Their math will show that even if the fraud is only 10% of https://t.co/tbhaDjLxnk
I realized while making this that there is no real cohesive database for government funding data or corruption tracking.
I think the Minnesota fraud is the tip of the iceberg. So, in my free time i'm planning to add fraud data for: PPP, healthcare, COVID relief fraud, SNAP, https://t.co/hKXVAvOqEr
DOGE is become decentralized…if this gets critical mass, it can’t be stopped.
The only options will be to end the fraud or embrace it. https://t.co/Ich5bbTFW2
When do we see the ambitious politicians get in front of the systemic waste and fraud?
The ambitious state assemblyman who wants to be State AG.
The State AG who wants to be Governor.
The Governor who wants to be POTUS.
The lane is there…
I just got off work.
And it dawned on me, that 30% of every dollar I made today probably went to some scam.
THIRTY PERCENT.
I’m so angry.
All this time I’ve been saving, going to school, working hard… for fraudulent Somali daycares?
I’m fed up, this has to stop. https://t.co/el8rsjr8Y6
This is staggering:
- the US collects more income tax than the *entire national budget* of every county except China
- and we lose more in fraud than the entire budget of all but four
So, money is clearly not the issue
Politicians raise taxes not because it’s needed, but https://t.co/MlwJO6vUE1 https://t.co/eq7JNFxxN1
“Politicians raise taxes not because it’s needed, but because it gives them a bigger slush fund to enrich groups who will vote for them
They fund luxury hotels for illegal immigrants, while working families can barely afford healthcare “ https://t.co/4BCXApDIf1
Daycares in Minnesota donated a combined $35 million to political campaigns in the last two years
They didnt even try to hide the money trail.
https://t.co/jJbQtNEaNs https://t.co/ldaKGLv00X
Daycares in Minnesota outspent each of the Mag7 in political giving.
Seems not fishy.
Per Gemini:
“Based on federal lobbying disclosures for the full year of 2024, zero individual tech companies reached the $35 million threshold.
While 2024 was a record-breaking year for https://t.co/MBRhYwX2EI
People I know, with a collective net worth of $500B, scrambled and left California for good yesterday.
They took no risk because of the proposed asset seizure tax - introduced as a “Billionaire Tax”.
Without these people, the California budget deficit will only get bigger.
Well, then I hope the West uses 2026 to get our 2nm chip processes in shape so that if this happens, we have the option to stay out of it. https://t.co/cNV0GqJEDa
This comment is actually instructive in explaining how California manages to waste enormous sums of public money. It isn’t “theft” in the narrow legal sense. Nobody is stuffing cash in duffel bags. But when taxpayers are compelled to fund projects that continuously produce almost https://t.co/AsbGdFuXj0
NEW YEARS EVE POD! 🚨
@nickshirleyy joins the Besties to discuss his recent investigation into potential daycare fraud in Minnesota
-- Massive Somali Fraud in Minnesota
-- Why this story is resonating and why the national press initially ignored it
-- What the scale of https://t.co/r3Xc4pl5xC
Why is it so stunningly easy to defraud the State of California? 1.2 million fake community college applications. $32 billion in unemployment fraud. $24 billion in homeless funds lost. $17 billion on a nonexistent High-Speed Rail. $650 million on a cancelled 911 system. We need https://t.co/e8ZWiD6ffu
Yet California politicians want to not only increase taxes but trick you by using labels like “Billionaire Tax” to get you to vote in a constitutional amendment that will allow them to seize your assets and private property. It’s never been done before. Anywhere in the country. https://t.co/7M4fs8GEtV
Billionaires in California were the sheep you could shear forever. But try to skin them and they will be gone forever.
All it will leave is a huge budget hole you will eventually be asked to fill. Unfortunately, this lesson will now be learned by California voters the hard way.
@SITIITTZN I feel for those people. I grew up on welfare and was one of those people.
So hear me clearly: billionaires in California are the sheep you can shear forever. But try to skin them and they will be gone forever. All it will leave is a huge budget hole you will eventually be
NEW: Peter Thiel is opening an office in Miami for his personal investment firm, Thiel Capital.
Thiel just put out this press release. Why? Because he is trying to show publicly that he is a taxpayer in Florida, not California.
Note that it says the lease was signed Dec. 2025. https://t.co/S9qh1nf1pX
Here, below, is a press release announcing that a person worth $50-100B (depending on SpaceX valuation) has left California.
And this is one person! There are many, many others.
Now, California’s budget can exclude any tax revenue from Peter Thiel going forward. And it will https://t.co/ykQO4OrlPK
Tell me again i need to pay more taxes. Go ahead democrats explain to me why I need to pay more taxes.
Explain to me why your entire party voted against extending Trump's tax cuts from 2018?
Explain to me why your entire party voted NO on tax cuts for tips, overtime and
Because taxes create government revenues which they can then use to reward their supporters.
It’s old school corruption on a multi-trillion dollar scale. https://t.co/AuYvKo4K0o
A couple of important thoughts and clarifications:
Where is Bernie right?
He is right that a handful of the Tech Billionaire class are completely and totally loathsome. Monopolists who’ve flouted privacy, dampened free speech, enabled debanking and sewed societal chaos with https://t.co/rRGu33k0jd
Federal spending on Obamacare has DOUBLED since 2020.
In 2024, taxpayers covered nearly 80% of premiums, pouring $114 BILLION straight to insurers.
Subsidize something, you get more of it. https://t.co/S8SQyY1eDq
More taxation WILL NOT FIX HEALTHCARE as you can see below.
We need to address the incentives written into Obamacare - specifically that the margins of healthcare companies are capped at 15% and the unwinding of the M&A bonanza that created mega corps in healthcare.
While it https://t.co/5cmGLRZeEM
@chamath Killing minimum MLRs rule is dramatically less important than focusing on reversing the vertical integration that's taken place within the sector. Think a Glass Steagall Act-equivalent for health insurers which would force the separation of provider assets (PBMs, etc.)
This year, Jeff Bezos rented out the entire city of Venice for his wedding.
And we’re told we’re complaining too much about not being able to afford healthcare.
Tax the rich. https://t.co/UnAzv05yNr
The reason you can’t afford healthcare:
Healthcare premiums are too high.
Taxing Jeff Bezos more may be right for other reasons but it will do nothing to fix this.
Premiums are too high because insurance companies game the pricing model brought by Obamacare.
Obamacare https://t.co/44EpOkIbm1
Free daycare has been a talking point for years.
Turns out if politicians had stopped fraud to the fake, non existent daycares you would have had enough money to give the real thing away for free.
We have frozen all child care payments to the state of Minnesota.
You have probably read the serious allegations that the state of Minnesota has funneled millions of taxpayer dollars to fraudulent daycares across Minnesota over the past decade.
Today we have taken three actions https://t.co/VYbyf3WGop
Can’t have kids because you can’t afford daycare.
Can’t afford daycare because most of the money is actually given to imaginary daycares, resulting in fewer spots and higher prices from the few real ones.
It doesn’t have to be this way.
You can't afford another kid because childcare is so expensive—but Somali fraudsters got millions of your taxpayer dollars for child care centers that don’t exist.
You can’t afford a home—but 100 Somalis spent millions of your taxpayer dollars on luxury properties.
You’re https://t.co/L3pmz7WC0e
This is insane.
With no desire to stop the fraud, California politicians insist that they will start taxing property and assets of the richest Californians now.
When these richest Californians leave, which I guarantee they will, especially when they understand the extent of https://t.co/ZqeEuotqvZ
The bond market is waking up to the fraud.
Politicians may be able to sweep this under the rug but nothing can stop the bond market…
Pain is coming via interest rates on muni and state bonds…no bond holder wants to be the bagholder for waste, fraud and abuse. https://t.co/cVaww2VUK8
@chamath Where’s the mea culpa from the wealthiest for putting people like this in power? Garry tan was donating to state dem parties as recently as last year. Why should we stop him or his friends from realizing the consequences of their actions?
A third of community college applicants were fake. $17 billion was spent on High-Speed Rail with no track. $24 billion in homelessness funds disappeared. $32 billion was lost to unemployment fraud. Medi-Cal and SNAP are rife with improper payments.
This is Newsom's California. https://t.co/Camy6pHbJz
This is insane.
With no desire to stop the fraud, California politicians insist that they will start taxing property and assets of the richest Californians now.
When these richest Californians leave, which I guarantee they will, especially when they understand the extent of https://t.co/ZqeEuotqvZ
The great Will Durant:
“Freedom and equality are sworn and everlasting enemies, and when one prevails the other dies.
Leave men free, and their natural inequalities will multiply almost geometrically, as in England and America in the nineteenth century under laissez-faire.
Another example of staggering fraud in California: Fully one-third of community college applications are fake. They're just used for financial aid fraud. https://t.co/nYpMAsQqUe
Just realizing that, Social Capital excepted, traditional Silicon Valley venture royalty entirely missed Groq.
It’s the 2nd biggest acquisition of a private company of the last 10 years after Wiz and the investors are crossovers, strategics, Europeans, etc
You just never know.
The market dynamics in AI are insane: huge capital and power needs meets rapid consumer adoption meets huge potential economic and social impact meets geographic competition at scale. https://t.co/Dovn0IC6VC
The pattern seems to be that democrats enable enormous fraud on public programs, enriching their supporters, who then give back some $$ in campaign contributions to keep the crooks in power, who continue the grift. https://t.co/XAURf5q9lc
No idea this existed until today.
People can make billions ratting out the fraud: What is “qui tam”?
Via Gemini:
“Qui tam is a legal provision that allows a private individual (known as a relator) to file a lawsuit on behalf of the government to recover funds lost to fraud. https://t.co/hl6N88r4WX
Minnesota is proof positive how broken “liberal” ideology is.
In their haste to “create more equity”, “right historic wrongs”, “celebrate diversity” and all manner of other well established orthodoxy, they have instead, completely upended the rule of law, enabled rampant fraud
@chamath @chamath one saving grace for many founders is likely that any valuation of shares will be based on common share price, correct? So there will be some folks that are affected by this tax (which I agree is ridiculous), but not the vast majority of startup founders
@chamath @nickshirleyy Let's crowdfund a grant program for similar young journalists who use Youtube/X to expose fraud in California. I.e. $10K each to 10-100 influencers to make videos exposing similar frauds @Cernovich @KevinKileyCA
I trust @Cernovich instincts here. If he thinks a grant program can unlock tens of investigative journalists to uncover the breadth and scale of California’s fraud, many people will support it.
Cerno? https://t.co/yoWfLMV8Lb
CASE UPDATE: MINNESOTA FRAUD SCHEME
The FBI is aware of recent social media reports in Minnesota. However, even before the public conversation escalated online, the FBI had surged personnel and investigative resources to Minnesota to dismantle large-scale fraud schemes
Anyone who thinks the California government has a revenue problem is mathematically illiterate or part of the fraud.
California does not have a revenue problem. It has a spending problem. Politicians and their henchmen stealing tens of billions of dollars PER YEAR from our
You literally can’t find a single mainstream article about the Minnesota fraud...
Not even one...
How is it that a simple guy with a camera can uncover over $110,000,000 in fraud in a single day, but giant billion‑dollar media organizations behind the glass doors somehow “miss” https://t.co/rLnFxhumvr https://t.co/epb2hLSuHz
@RoKhanna @chamath why not just raise income tax rates?
because your real intent is not to just “provide healthcare”.
you’re masking that you are proposing the creation of, for the first time in the 250 years of this American republic, an organized government seizure of private property from
BREAKING - A 92-page report by the California State Auditor has found that over $70 billion in taxpayer funds have been lost, including $2.5 billion in SNAP fraud, $24 billion on fighting homelessness, and $18 billion for a high-speed rail where not a single track has been laid. https://t.co/WjTCzTyElU
Your daily reminder that if you are hoping for a California state pension, because of the fraud and grift of your elected officials in California, your state pension is at risk.
California politicians decided that the best way to cover up their addiction to https://t.co/9XkmhZLxkp
Thanks for this @chamath . The tax can be paid over 5 years. There should be provisions for workarounds for founders whose stock is locked or where their company is not profitable to defer any tax until a liquidity event with no interest accrual and for adjustment on the tax due https://t.co/E4eYmxWhuZ
@RoKhanna If, after audits and zero based budgets, there are revenue gaps, I’d support a wealth tax.
Until then, you and your ilk are just getting more incentives for fraud, voter manipulation and larceny.
The author of the LAFD’s after-action report on the Palisades fire declined to endorse the report and said the document has undergone “substantial modifications and contains significant deletions of information.” https://t.co/CnhjfJrGUp
More fraud by California’s elected “leaders”…
“LAFD Battalion Chief Kenneth Cook, who wrote the after-action report on the Palisades fire, declined to endorse the final version.
In an email, Cook wrote that “the current version appears highly unprofessional and inconsistent https://t.co/aI4aIH5qnU
@friedberg So putting aside the rhetorical flourish, you genuinely believe that a 1 percent tax on billionaires wealth for 5 years will kill the SV economy? Honest question. Or your concern is if that is expands to beyond that?
Even @chamath has eloquently recognized that those with
It’s not 1% a year for 5 years.
It’s a one time 5% tax on all assets and it will kill entrepreneurship in California.
Here is an example:
John Doe starts a company. He takes a nominal salary - say $150k for this example - and the rest in equity in the company. Let’s say he https://t.co/zdq1bqovXX
In Silicon Valley, a critical lesson of leadership is that throwing money at a problem doesn’t solve it. Ingenuity and resolve does.
Take Californias K-12 education as an example that proves this point yet again.
If you’ve lived in California, since 2020, you’ve collectively
California was supposed to be the place where you “lived and let live”.
How, instead then, did it become the most oppressive, over regulated and overtaxed place in America while also being the worst on crime, housing and education of our kids?
@chamath Thanks Chamath - interesting thoughts. Time will tell as ever.
Should have also said that Nvidia is getting an extremely talented team led by the brilliant @JonathanRoss321 who spent a long time in the wilderness and chewed a lot of metaphorical glass to get Groq to this
The American Tort Reform Foundation scored LA as its top “judicial hellhole”.
LA is the standard bearer for the rest of the state. So you can only imagine how impossible it is to do business anywhere else in California.
Once the politicians overpower you and have the law in https://t.co/2fkZkGXGgG
Nvidia is buying Groq for two reasons imo.
1) Inference is disaggregating into prefill and decode. SRAM architectures have unique advantages in decode for workloads where performance is primarily a function of memory bandwidth. Rubin CPX, Rubin and the putative “Rubin SRAM”
This is directionally right.
The HBM vs SRAM tradeoff in architecture design was clear many years ago. Those that picked HBM are in a queue behind Nvidia and Google. Good luck with that.
More broadly, LLM decode patterns favor SRAM. But unlike Gavin, I think this creates a https://t.co/KtlTQyvmUM
L.A.’s entertainment economy is spiraling downward: Work is evaporating, businesses are closing, and the city’s creative middle class is hanging on by a thread. https://t.co/v0yLs3cuk2
This is because California’s state and local politicians have completely broken LA and the state in general.
It is increasingly untenable to do business:
- Too many permits
- Too many laws
- Too much overreach
- Too many delays
- Too many taxes
It’s killed Hollywood and it’s https://t.co/kNheNWTpbF
This idiotic attack, by an inept California politician, on a productive California resident caused him to leave. It should not be lost on anyone that this has already cost California $10’s of billions in lost taxes from Elon and the plethora of well paid employees that followed https://t.co/2aADLB4WWH
TONY HINCHCLIFFE: "David Sacks and David Friedberg I would like to personally thank you for elevating the reputation of African Americans amongst the billionaire class...The only Black Male on the podcast is whatever the Israeli government has on these guys."
LMAO 💀💀💀🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/gIajHyvp9x
Congrats to @JonathanRoss321 and team!
Jonathan and Doug let me put in a small check in 2018. Our companies shared investors at the time with @socialcapital and Chamath.
At the time, AI didnt seem super useful yet and TPU applicability seemed a little niche, but I estimated https://t.co/5ckJrOqGOS
BREAKING - A 92-page report by the California State Auditor has found that over $70 billion in taxpayer funds have been lost, including $2.5 billion in SNAP fraud, $24 billion on fighting homelessness, and $18 billion for a high-speed rail where not a single track has been laid. https://t.co/WjTCzTyElU
California will be bankrupt by 2030.
If you’re expecting a state pension, it is at risk.
If you don’t believe it, check Grok or Gemini and explore how California politicians changed the reporting rules on your pension so they could hide how underwater it is.
The middle https://t.co/9XkmhZLxkp
@chamath If you thought Chamath was unbearable before, he’ll somehow manage to make @Jason look humble lol. But still gotta give him credit, made a killing with Facebook, Golden State Warriors, Slack, SPACs, now Groq! Incredible
@JeffiniteVC @chamath How about this. I get an equity holder to reply to this tweet. If they agree with me, you Venmo me $1k. If they agree with you, I Venmo you $1k. Deal?
TONY HINCHCLIFFE: "Chamath works hard. $1.5B dollars. He works hard 24/7...11. He bought into the Golden State Warriors because he heard they had Curry over there. He's got a lot of bread. It's a naan issue."
OH MY GOD 💀💀💀 https://t.co/bGYAXF9kOd
Taken Sep 1, 2016 when @JonathanRoss321 convinced me we could take on the giants, build new silicon and that AI was coming. In typical SV fashion, we didn’t even have a company yet - just a term sheet from me to invest and the three of us. I spent the next month recruiting as https://t.co/3On4uwX1Mz
JUST IN - The U.S. is on pace for the largest one-year drop in murders the nation has ever recorded, according to an analysis by crime stats expert Jeff Asher.
2025 is a banger:
High economic growth
Record high stock market
Falling inflation
Falling crime
There’s more work to do but 2026 already has a lot in the pipeline to build on top of this and help all Americans:
Trump tax cuts
Energy supercycle
Fed rate cuts
… https://t.co/ReXxlazJYl
The H1B system has been manipulated by some companies as a form of labor arbitrage to staff up cheap labor - with many abuses well documented.
The most negative consequence is the displacement of qualified American workers.
That is why this proposed change has the potential to https://t.co/jF8BPXE7ZH
We have a MAJOR housing crisis.
In 1991, the typical first-time home buyer was 28 years old.
This year, that buyer was 40. Decent housing is a human right.
Instead of tax breaks for billionaires, we need to invest in low income and affordable housing.
@BernieSanders Agreed about the fact there is a housing crisis but what does it have to do with billionaires? It seems that there is a more accurate explanation… https://t.co/8gHvByop3s
The US govt spent about $638 billion on Medicaid in 2024. It is about 9% of all US govt spending.
In one state of Minnesota they have identified $9 billion in fraud, with a huge portion being shipped overseas to the families of migrants running the scams.
Consider all 50 https://t.co/L3LCLzmeIN
Imagine what would be found if the federal government (aka taxpayers) slowed transfer payments to California, Minnesota etc until it passed an audit?
Is passing an audit an unreasonable ask in return for hundreds of billions of dollars per year? https://t.co/Q8oJwQmxEE
All-In Interview: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent!
-- 2025 economic recap
-- What to expect in 2026
-- Fixing the Fed
-- Tariffs for national security leverage
-- Solving affordability
(0:00) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joins the show
(0:55) Recapping 2025 and the https://t.co/jE7Bb3ieNZ
@chamath Joe Success owns a startup, it grows and goes public. Come tax assessment it’s valued at $2 Billion. California taxes that 2 $Billion at 5%.
Come next tax time - fierce competition arises and Joe’s company is now worth $200 Million.
Does Joe get a refund?
@TheFloridaBoss No. Joe is now bankrupt because he probably had to go on an installment plan and still owes the majority of the $100M of tax assessed to him and now has no way to pay it.
Leaving California: Three More Major Businesses Close or Move Out of State.
Blue Diamond, Leprino Foods, Anheuser-Busch closing/leaving CA.
@CaliforniaGlobe link 👇👇👇 https://t.co/ijl5f2nScs
California is proposing a 5% excise tax on “billionaires”. I put it in quotes because it proposes counting everything and the kitchen sink as a dragnet to qualify as many people as possible.
But what they are really doing is breaking the seal on a trend that will bankrupt the https://t.co/IUZBkGvmqN
A crazy idea would be a mandate that federal funding for universities can only happen when/if the ideological balance of its professors are within +/- 20%.
Any institutions that opts out/takes zero funding from the federal government (ie from taxpayers) can still do whatever
“Milton Friedman observed that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. But affordability—the prices of particular things—can be very much a local phenomenon.”
Case in point, California has the worst affordability crisis in America - entirely created by our https://t.co/pBfdXikpMe
California is the only state in the nation that has not paid off its federal pandemic unemployment loan.
Businesses large & small have been shouldering the $20B debt bc CALeg & Gov put nothing toward it.
“This is the greatest hidden tax” @roblapsley
https://t.co/ULsYEQlLGQ
How corrupt and broken is California that we are the only state that hasn’t paid this.
Stock markets are at record highs, 6 companies with trillion dollar market caps and yet these guys can’t seem to keep their fiscal house in order.
Add to this the exodus that will happen https://t.co/6Ohis2jgNz
California is the Fraud Capital of America:
$32 billion in unemployment fraud
$24 billion in homeless funds "lost"
$18 billion on nonexistent bullet train
$650 million on scrapped 911 system.
A scathing report from the State Auditor just identified 8 separate state agencies as
If a public company went through an audit like this, the report would show a failing grade along with what is called “material weaknesses”. It would be a five alarm fire.
The result would be a period to cure these weaknesses. Otherwise, the CEO/CFO would be fired, the company https://t.co/ZaThcW0225
Buyer beware…
.@friedberg just told me she is polling SECOND for President in 2028 amongst Democrats.
Her desires are a very slippery slope and the end result is a police state with top down censorship by nameless/faceless people you didn’t elect. Basically, a thought police. https://t.co/3axf8t539w
This paper from Stanford and Harvard explains why most “agentic AI” systems feel impressive in demos and then completely fall apart in real use.
The core argument is simple and uncomfortable: agents don’t fail because they lack intelligence. They fail because they don’t adapt. https://t.co/6Hi0lNPzas
@chamath That's our point. Uptime and delivery certainty are functions of generation mix.
Nuclear provides 90%+ capacity factor, 24/7 baseload, decades-long asset life.
China is adding reliable, always-on electrons at scale, the US is not.
If nuclear is not your answer, then what is?
@jayplemons @chamath Chamath is right. The "Watches & Hoodies" era is over.
But Carnegie didn't just write checks; he built Rails.
If we want AI to "benefit as many Americans as possible," we don't need performative charity. We need Sovereign Infrastructure that routes value back to the citizens
@jayplemons @chamath There's something revealing about framing this as a perception problem rather than a structural one.
The issue is that the entire value capture model of modern AI companies is designed to concentrate wealth rather than distribute it. Carnegie built libraries because it aligned
@_junaidkhalid1 @jayplemons This is a really interesting comment.
Can you come up with some ideas for how the business model can/should change?
Use an easy example (Meta) and a hard one (AWS or some other infrastructure software company).
How do we redesign these business models??
🚨Besties are BACK!🚨
The core four cover:
-- Bernie's datacenter moratorium, why should the average American care about the AI race?
-- Solutions for fixing AI's negative perception
-- China's major EUV breakthrough, what this means for ASML and the AI race
-- Inflation, https://t.co/HMG4aVfp8Z
China is dominating the worldwide race for power:
China now has a record 3.75 terawatts of power generation capacity.
That capacity has doubled over the last 8 years.
This is nearly 3 TIMES more than the US, which has ~1.30 terawatts of capacity.
Furthermore, China has 34 https://t.co/tfqmk9OIUH
@KobeissiLetter You’re overly obsessed with nuclear reactors (ie how is electricity generated). Not sure why.
HOW you generate electrons is irrelevant right now.
WHEN you get them (ie num days from today, complexity of build) and uptime is the most important question.
Biden won Georgia by 11,779 votes. Now, over 5 years later, they admit 315,000 votes in Georgia were actually counted illegally. https://t.co/PZjM4ixbym
About half or more of the roughly $18 billion in claims paid out by Medicaid to Minnesota-run programs may have been fraudulent, and at least 14 programs were likely exploited, a federal prosecutor said Thursday.
https://t.co/MkOf7Yf8n9
MUST READ from the WSJ: “Something is profoundly wrong with the U.S. welfare system—a problem that runs far deeper and is more dangerous than the shocking fraud in Minnesota that has been making headlines… real federal welfare spending has soared by 765%, more than twice as fast https://t.co/sjGeuqS5Ko
“Andrew Carnegie built 2,500 libraries. The idea was as he built the railroads, you're going to scale GDP. You're going to scale education and knowledge.”
“We need to self organize better, and we need to be more on the forward foot. We need to start doing things that are practically measurable by tens of millions of American citizens.”
“The war with China is existential because if we can keep it on the battlefield of AI and intellectual and economic prowess, we have a very good chance of winning.”
“No tax on tips. No tax on overtime. The deductibility of the cost of interest for things like car loans. These are big stimulative action depreciation.”
“That one bill, this proposed billionaire tax, has single handedly changed the trajectory of the California economy by a 100 to $200,000,000,000 over the next five to ten years.”
$GOOGL is working on TorchTPU to enable PyTorch models to run directly on its TPUs.
The joint effort with $META aims to lower switching costs and give AI teams more flexibility in infrastructure choice. https://t.co/mmPz5iKiKT
Transpilers are very tricky. We started working on this initially at 8090 but had to pivot - it was really hard without access to the core chip.
One hyperscaler gave us this access but it still wasn’t enough. Pytorch is v tricky and hyper optimized for Nvidia silicon. We likely https://t.co/i4w2Hk7QzS
This is one of my favorite videos. Elon Musk is one of the smartest and most impactful human beings EVER. Let me ask you why is it that every time I send a check to AOC (government)it’s gone and I get told to send more. Every time I send a check to Elon, in a few years I get a https://t.co/YWKzOTZMi4
To make the math simple, the car on the left is $25k. The car on the right is $150k.
That said, the key question in my mind aren’t the design choices each made but how regulators will frame their expectations to have a robust, safe fully autonomous fleet in their city.
I https://t.co/sjdrYCJH1P
@pwallmann I always get these mixed up. All I know is that I put in the address, triple tap the thing on the left and it always gets me to my destination.
@chamath I’d be concerned the combustion engine conglomerate lobby’s in Waymo’s favor to price out competition.
What an interesting card for Alphabet to hold over many things.
We’re hosting our first Toronto hackathon in January: Build for Builders.
Top AI + tech leaders will be judging, hanging around, and yes… hiring.
If you’re a builder who ships, this one’s for you:
https://t.co/HuiZ5Mac11
Toronto’s technical talent is consistently underrated.
This is why we continue to bet on it and want to grow the ecosystem of builders there.
If you’re in Toronto in January (or nearby), please come! https://t.co/hxibPrHiS5
JOBS REPORT: The strength of the Trump Economy is in the private sector... where it should be.
FACT: Since September, the private sector has gained 121,000 jobs — while the federal government has shed 168,000 jobs.
FACT: Since August, the private sector has added 225,000 jobs.
By shrinking the Federal bureaucracy, it keeps the government and, by extension, the deep state as small and out of your way as much as possible. https://t.co/B7YL9oAFsA
an interesting update: the team is starting to move away from AI coding completely (devin/claude/etc) because it's so much harder to review the AI code than writing things themselves https://t.co/DJBvwxGUy5
Building with precision vs building with "speed".
The former is about going slow up front so you get the intention and details right. This then allows you to go fast in the middle and the end.
The latter is about going fast up front only to realize you made many sub optimal https://t.co/eziCeVmcNc
“But at the very specific thing about this deal, the reality is that the future is unscripted, uncontrolled, user generated content. You see it on YouTube.”
“I want to know and be able to talk to you about the constitution of this country. I want to be able to celebrate the cultural heritage of this country.”
What I read this week...
1) On 12/11, The White House issued a new Executive Order declaring that the United States must adopt a single national AI regulatory standard rather than a mosaic of state-level rules. The EO does not define the federal standard but directs agencies to
DSA Supervisor @JackieFielder_ is back on her bullshit. She wants to ban all R&D in the Mission, and it looks like she's going to get away with it bc the rest of the BoS isn't paying attention.
Sorry this has to be a thread, but it's fucking insane and you need to know details.
This is absolute lunacy. I’ve said many times that SF is a dump. It is.
But it’s now becoming a dumpster fire.
Banning R&D in the Mission area of SF?!?! What does that even mean? Burritos…yes! Cancer cures…no thanks! https://t.co/gOMjnzMQ6p
POD UP 🚨 Tucker is BACK with the Besties!
@TuckerCarlson joins to break down:
- Paramount vs Netflix, future of media
- The rise of Nick Fuentes
- The anti-AI sentiment from conservatives
- Midterms, Fall of Europe, Israel, Qatar, and more!
(0:00) Tucker joins the besties! https://t.co/nDnQnd8D3b
President Donald J. Trump signs an Executive Order to protect American AI innovation from an inconsistent and costly compliance regime resulting from varying state laws.
"We have to be unified. China is unified..." https://t.co/II9gz5yDx7
The reason this EO is important is so that the federal government can take the lead on defining the rules on the field.
Playing a game with 50 sets of rules isn’t viable. Having to do so would slow down investment.
But with one federal framework, there’s an opportunity to https://t.co/NBNQhTprae
This attitude is why healthcare in America is both really expensive and sometimes not very good.
A preventative MRI, something my friends and I do every 2-3 years, absolutely exists and has tremendous value. It is the best form of schmuck insurance: 99.9% of the time it finds https://t.co/4tPvdljcNQ
If you’d like to get rich or stay rich, I’d encourage you to develop the ability to change your mind.
Most ideas are shitty. So staying fixated on shitty ideas creates an anchoring bias that will weigh you down to the mediocrity of the masses. Learn to change your mind and
A new product, a new customer, a new financing!
Introducing Superpower: a 42MW natural gas turbine optimized for AI datacenters, built on our supersonic technology. Superpower launches with a 1.21GW order from @CrusoeAI Backstory 🧵👇 https://t.co/ZfXjrRxHeM
“And, ultimately, what we are learning, especially as all these markets converge, is that distribution still matters a ton, which favors Google. It favors Meta, although Meta's quite behind.”
“If you actually look at the DCF of the enterprise value of these businesses, it gets very little credit for that cash almost to the point where it's worthless.”
“And so if you wanna make Gemini even more incredible, just get pour another billion users into it. And if that costs you 50,000,000,000, it's okay because you'll make a trillion of market cap.”
“There is nothing here. Okay? There was no crime here. There's no smoke here. There's no fire here. What you did get right, though, is the headline, was the goal.”
“There is a very specific part of, though, what he said, which I think we should focus on, which is there is an area between $45,000 a year and $63,000 a year, which actually looks like a bit of a stagnation zone.”
What I read this week...
1) Kalshi Raises $1B at $11B Valuation
Kalshi has closed a stunning $1 billion Series E funding round at an $11 billion valuation, more than doubling its worth in under two months. The round, led by crypto-focused venture firm Paradigm with
What I read this week...
1) Kalshi Raises $1B at $11B Valuation
Kalshi has closed a stunning $1 billion Series E funding round at an $11 billion valuation, more than doubling its worth in under two months. The round, led by crypto-focused venture firm Paradigm with
Contracts Update!
Over the last 5 days, agencies terminated and descoped 43 wasteful contracts with a ceiling value of $3.5B and savings of $222M, including a $4.3M Dept. of Treasury IT contract to “develop a comprehensive strategic narrative and management approach aimed at the https://t.co/hEcdiTc35W
Really nuts that we, US taxpayers, are paying for this stuff.
The projects are technically written in English, but it’s not in English. No one can explain what these are.
For those that reflexively hate DOGE, do you honestly think your quality of life or cost of living goes https://t.co/qgXGSgm2ub
🚨 Chamath on Why New York Times Runs Hit Jobs on Non-Establishment Figures
“The whole point was to get enough chatter … so that people like Sacks, and other people in the future just say, I'm not going to try this … What they want are people they can … ultimately co-opt.” https://t.co/mm4ODBWpgf
Mainstream media’s approach is to paint anyone they can’t control as corrupt or conflicted.
The truth is always the opposite. The individuals aren’t corrupt. The media is.
America deserves the best and brightest from industry taking a few years off to work in government and https://t.co/Mnpuvengb4
BIG EPISODE! 🚨
All four besties are BACK after a week off
-- Sam Altman declares "Code Red" at OpenAI
-- Sacks vs New York Times: behind the hit piece
-- New poverty line?
-- America's slow descent into socialism
(0:00) Bestie intros
(0:12) OpenAI declares "Code Red" as https://t.co/cNFIsbl76r
8090 is scaling very quickly. 2025 Bookings (our first full year in business) will be $20M+ and 2026 has a clear shot at $100M+. But we need more great people to take it from possible to probable.
If you want to take the next step of your career, please see below and consider
From 1900 to 2000, new grid power capacity increased 10x every 30 years.
In the last 25 years, it has grown only 1.3x.
In the same period, China expanded 7x to roughly 10,000 TWh. https://t.co/7X0hlYw9ii
From 1900 to 2000, new grid power capacity increased 10x every 30 years.
In the last 25 years, it has grown only 1.3x.
In the same period, China expanded 7x to roughly 10,000 TWh. https://t.co/7X0hlYw9ii
Top half of 1% for @theallinpod with @chamath, @Jason @DavidSacks & @friedberg.
These guys are such a breath of fresh air. They educate, entertain and their balanced, even-keeled and always funny conversational flow has kept me company on bike rides, in the gym, behind the https://t.co/CPMsnmGOzz
Finally got the All In Tequila!!
Packaging is better than any Apple product
Gonna share it with my besties in Boston
@DavidSacks @chamath @friedberg @Jason @theallinpod https://t.co/OgpBUAcbig
Brad Gerstner (@altcap) on Trump Accounts: "@POTUS was elected on a Main Street agenda to get the rest of America into the game, and that’s exactly what this does." https://t.co/Vx4X1yB71a
bestie group chat on fire today with notes of celebration and congratulations...great work @altcap in creating this and @MichaelDell is a 🐐 doing 🐐 things...
putting capitalism into the hands of 25M kids is a very big deal. https://t.co/SWH2XBu4hF
The Forbes cover piece mentions how I was emailing the SEC as a kid
Here it is, October 2013. Little did I know...
What people call an "overnight success" takes a decade. And still a looong way to go https://t.co/35FhIsymCK
backgammon nerd sidequest alert: I bought eXtremeGammon the preeminent backgammon engine & looking for right "re-founding" CEO
discrete mathematics, neural nets, game theory, heavy UX, social, gambling, all the good stuff..
ANY TIPS? - https://t.co/sCOtLj2vVD
1) backgammon is an incredibly fun game
2) travis is a beast so i suspect this is a path to something very big/fun/crazy
great role for the right person... https://t.co/yykl6Xgl8Q
This may be the point: portray anyone with real-world experience as too conflicted to serve in government so only professional bureaucrats/activists/NGO-types (with the same views as NYT reporters) are eligible. https://t.co/W0Gv1u4oGU
Agreed.
There is a concerted effort by the bureaucratic class to paint success and experience as a sign of corruption.
Instead, it’s the exact opposite.
Success and experience in the free market only comes from repeatedly expressed and easily measured good judgement. https://t.co/yPDrBpHUWZ
I agree Gavin, the NYT distortion of @DavidSacks’ leadership in AI, Crypto & Quantum isn’t journalism—it’s almost strategic sabotage. While American’s bicker, our rivals are studying David’s every move. I’ve known David for decades, and I’ve never seen him sharper or more https://t.co/9N7FmpLXhq
INSIDE NYT’S HOAX FACTORY
Five months ago, five New York Times reporters were dispatched to create a story about my supposed conflicts of interest working as the White House AI & Crypto Czar.
Through a series of “fact checks” they revealed their accusations, which we debunked https://t.co/o67ls3RmC6
2) In the past several months, Tether, long known as the issuer of the leading stablecoin USDT, has quietly become one of the largest private gold holders in the world. Fahad Tariq and Andrew Moss, equity analysts at Jefferies, recently published a report on Tether’s growing
What I read this week...
1) On 11/24, The Genesis Mission was signed into action by Executive Order.
The Genesis Mission is framed as a modern-day counterpart to the Manhattan Project, harnessing the Department of Energy’s 17 National Laboratories, industry, and academia to
2) In the past several months, Tether, long known as the issuer of the leading stablecoin USDT, has quietly become one of the largest private gold holders in the world. Fahad Tariq and Andrew Moss, equity analysts at Jefferies, recently published a report on Tether’s growing
What I read this week...
1) On 11/24, The Genesis Mission was signed into action by Executive Order.
The Genesis Mission is framed as a modern-day counterpart to the Manhattan Project, harnessing the Department of Energy’s 17 National Laboratories, industry, and academia to
I helped build the WEF’s “Great Reset.” Here’s what it really is — from the inside.
The WEF sold the “Great Reset” as “build back better” — climate action, ESG, inclusion, and PPP.
In practice, it shifted power away from voters to NGOs, corporate elites, and unelected https://t.co/6fIIUCtm9W
Private equity wives (or tech wives) and power hungry globalist technocrats will cause the end of days...
The former comes from a place of guilt because they did nothing themselves to make the largesse they enjoy and are thus riddled with guilt. The latter schemes to collect https://t.co/ODxYtDzHw7
WSJ Edit Board -- The University of California eliminated the SAT as an admissions requirement five years ago. Now arrives the dispiriting result: Many freshmen at one of its top public universities can’t do middle-school math. https://t.co/j51sSF1jGV via @WSJopinion
When idiots admit idiots…
- loss of credibility for the school in the eyes of employers and post grad institutions
- lack of career prospects and student debt that won’t be paid off by admitted students
At a minimum, we should all agree that student loans should not be https://t.co/Q9zEWmRtnV
BREAKING: Unemployed Americans with 4-year college degrees now make up a record 25.3% of total unemployment.
The percentage has doubled since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
This comes as over 1.9 million workers aged 25+ with at least a bachelor’s degree are now unemployed. https://t.co/HWcUZnHcu2
Two obvious takeaways:
1. The US Federal Government needs to stop underwriting college loans immediately.
2. Too many people are entering into a financial quagmire they will never pay off to get a degree that increasingly has little to no value. https://t.co/pHL4SoRnSd
“Move Fast and Break Things” vs “Move Slow and Forge Things”
“Move fast and break things” was a something we invented at Facebook to get a bunch of entitled Ivy League kids to grind for us. It worked.
Then, all of Silicon Valley mistakenly confused correlation with causation
3) @tryramp announced their raise of $300M at a $32B valuation led by Lightspeed Venture Partners. Their revenue doubled to over $1B in one year with a 153% YoY growth rate, 10x faster than the median public SaaS business.
Their massive move has been on the back of their new AI
2) This week, Japan’s long-dated government bond yields have surged to their highest levels since (and in some cases beyond) the 2008 financial crisis.
The new PM, Sanae Takaichi, is pushing for Japan’s biggest stimulus since COVID, with the cabinet approving a 21.3 trillion yen https://t.co/lG2TFsij2t
3) @tryramp announced their raise of $300M at a $32B valuation led by Lightspeed Venture Partners. Their revenue doubled to over $1B in one year with a 153% YoY growth rate, 10x faster than the median public SaaS business.
Their massive move has been on the back of their new AI
What I read this week...
1) @Google announced Gemini 3 on November 18, 2025, calling it its “most intelligent” model to date and rolling it out day-one across Search (AI Mode), the Gemini app, AI Studio, Vertex AI, and a new agentic dev environment called Google Antigravity.
It https://t.co/ht4C8gqvsB
2) This week, Japan’s long-dated government bond yields have surged to their highest levels since (and in some cases beyond) the 2008 financial crisis.
The new PM, Sanae Takaichi, is pushing for Japan’s biggest stimulus since COVID, with the cabinet approving a 21.3 trillion yen https://t.co/lG2TFsij2t
What I read this week...
1) @Google announced Gemini 3 on November 18, 2025, calling it its “most intelligent” model to date and rolling it out day-one across Search (AI Mode), the Gemini app, AI Studio, Vertex AI, and a new agentic dev environment called Google Antigravity.
It https://t.co/ht4C8gqvsB
LIVE POD! 🚨🚨
The Besties recorded LIVE at the new state-of-the-art poker studio in The Venetian Las Vegas
Big shoutout to @VenetianVegas for taking care of the team!
-- Epstein Files Fallout: Biggest remaining questions
-- Nvidia's Performance and Risks for 2026
-- Michael https://t.co/2kBMdzTgv0
It is also the final installment in our A Primer on Magnificent 7 series.
Our goal with this series is simple: take you from zero knowledge to a grounded understanding of each of the most important technology companies in the world. We focus on history, business structure,
Azure drives a meaningful share of Microsoft’s revenue growth. The company reports the specific impact of AI on Azure’s expansion each quarter, and the contribution has grown steadily over the past year. This gives a concrete view into how AI demand is shaping the business, https://t.co/AyjBy2ue9G
It is also the final installment in our A Primer on Magnificent 7 series.
Our goal with this series is simple: take you from zero knowledge to a grounded understanding of each of the most important technology companies in the world. We focus on history, business structure,
Deep Dive: A Primer on Mag7 (Part 7 - Microsoft)
Microsoft has spent fifty years building platforms that sit underneath the modern economy.
BASIC made early computers usable. MS DOS and Windows standardized personal computing. Office became the core productivity layer for https://t.co/1K63Gt0Stb
Azure drives a meaningful share of Microsoft’s revenue growth. The company reports the specific impact of AI on Azure’s expansion each quarter, and the contribution has grown steadily over the past year. This gives a concrete view into how AI demand is shaping the business, https://t.co/AyjBy2ue9G
Deep Dive: A Primer on Mag7 (Part 7 - Microsoft)
Microsoft has spent fifty years building platforms that sit underneath the modern economy.
BASIC made early computers usable. MS DOS and Windows standardized personal computing. Office became the core productivity layer for https://t.co/1K63Gt0Stb
When I was on JRE last September, the first scaled use case I mentioned for AI, autonomy and robotics was in policing. See below that it is now beginning to scale.
More generally, the most powerful positive human consequence of AI, autonomy and robotics will be the sheer number https://t.co/s1LXICzuNy
@chamath Contrast CT/MRI not covered by insurance for elective diagnostic purposes. So how much out of pocket ala cart would that be for regular folks like me?
You can have all the money in the world, but if you don't have your health, you're broke.
I came from an unhealthy background (overweight, family history of heart disease and diabetes) and over the past decade have reduced my "health system" to a few critical things that works https://t.co/hI8CTJmNDX
In the United States, there is a traffic fatality roughly every 79 million miles.
Tesla FSD has now traveled 6.4 billion miles. Assuming it was no more or less safe than driving manually, you would expect there to be 81 fatalities with FSD on.
As a matter of fact, with 14 https://t.co/NxuQDecukE
3) Valve: Expanding on Hardware
PC gaming giant Valve revealed three new products to rival Nintendo, Xbox and PlayStation.
Valve is a privately held platform company that operates Steam, the world’s largest digital distribution platform for PC gaming with about 69M daily active
2) Blue Origin: Landing a New Milestone
Blue Origin landed a New Glenn booster on their second attempt, marking its first successful recovery of a heavy-lift rocket. The mission lifted off from Cape Canaveral on November 13 and placed two NASA satellites on a trajectory toward
3) Valve: Expanding on Hardware
PC gaming giant Valve revealed three new products to rival Nintendo, Xbox and PlayStation.
Valve is a privately held platform company that operates Steam, the world’s largest digital distribution platform for PC gaming with about 69M daily active
What I read this week...
1) Record Government Shutdown Ends
The U.S. federal government reopened after a 43-day shutdown when the Senate passed a funding bill by a 60-40 vote on November 10, and the Donald Trump administration signed it into law on November 12.
The deal took
2) Blue Origin: Landing a New Milestone
Blue Origin landed a New Glenn booster on their second attempt, marking its first successful recovery of a heavy-lift rocket. The mission lifted off from Cape Canaveral on November 13 and placed two NASA satellites on a trajectory toward
What I read this week...
1) Record Government Shutdown Ends
The U.S. federal government reopened after a 43-day shutdown when the Senate passed a funding bill by a 60-40 vote on November 10, and the Donald Trump administration signed it into law on November 12.
The deal took
@chamath This degenerate gambler turned a few million in $60 million in a matter of weeks. This guy was 10x leveraged long Solana and was destined to lose his $60mm no matter where he traded.
Liquidations in crypto are so aggressive because we give out non recourse leverage, in a
🔮Chamath calls Bitcoin dropping under $100k
From Episode 250, recorded Nov. 6 2025:
“Bitcoin is about to break through $100k to the downside, which I think is a psychological barrier that probably has another 5-10% more to run.”
“There's a dispersion happening in the Mag 7 as https://t.co/MSVUiMNb88
@chamath This is a good tweet Chamath. You are slowly redeeming yourself. Now quit talking about your expensive sweaters all the time and the internet will like you again.
A Difficult Personal Decision
I’ve made the personal decision to step away from trading on HyperLiquid. And I want to stress that word - personal (and difficult). I’m not asking anyone to follow me. I’m simply acting in alignment with where my values have moved.
Most of you https://t.co/VFolKPvgwB
🇺🇸 FORD CAN’T FIND MECHANICS - EVEN AT $120K A YEAR
Ford’s CEO Jim Farley just dropped a stat that should make every politician sweat:
5,000 open mechanic jobs. 6-figure salaries. 0 takers.
On a podcast this week, Farley basically said America’s running on economic fumes. https://t.co/dU8NyKbSzY https://t.co/xQSGuKzYp1
We have too many colleges graduating kids into suffocating student debt and worthless degrees.
We’ve created an artificial societal culture that celebrates a “BA” or “Masters” or “PhD” without asking the critical question:
“In what?”
For America to thrive, there should be https://t.co/cbNs4uqher
Pretty sobering that Navan which recently went public with the following metrics is worth ~$4.2B.
• $613M TTM revenue
• $688m annual run-rate revenue
• 32% y/y growth
• 71% gross margins
• -8% operating margins
Current valuation is less than $4.3B while all of their fundraising rounds since 2019 were well above this.
I don’t know the business so am not opining on its quality (although the metrics below are good), but am observing that yet again, 2020-2024 funding rounds in venture https://t.co/QkL0U84hEq
Elon Musk: Everything is solar power. The rest is noise.
“The sun is about 99.8% of the mass of the solar system. Jupiter's about 0.1% and everything else is in the remaining 0.1%, and we are much less than 0.1%.
So, if you burnt all of the mass of the solar system, then the https://t.co/2j9SvHr7LW
Bill Ackman’s idea to fix student debt:
Make universities take the first $20k loss.
@chamath “If the universities are forced to underwrite these degrees and they know that they’ll take the first dollar loss up to a certain amount…
they’ll be much more circumspect about what https://t.co/gvyQ1kKi7D
I got this slightly wrong in the re-telling. Bill's idea is for schools to take the first 10-20% loss of the loan amount.
Anyways, its a great idea. I hope it sees the light of day. https://t.co/pGlbsaTpN6
“If you saw a yard short, I mean, yeah, like, that would have probably gotten my attention had I read it. A billion dollars is, you know, reasonable position to have.”
“There is supposed to be a check on financial malfeasance, but it's not that. When you look at these short selling firms, for every one of them that actually uncovers malfeasance, what it really is is them creating chaos and innuendo under the guise of their right to free speech.”
“So I think if we get these three issues addressed, something in housing, something in health care, and something on the student loan side, it is a transformational domestic policy agenda that puts affordability front and center that will impact 50 to 75,000,000 American households.”
“What he described is that when the application window opens for what is a very small number of h one b's, a company that has, you know, call it 300,000 employees abroad will apply on behalf of all 300,000 because they're all roughly the same kind of employee. Whoever gets it gets to come over.”
POD UP!🚨
-- Home Affordability Crisis
-- Michael Burry's Big Short on AI
-- Palantir's Major Advantage
-- H-1B Debate Rages On
-- Major Midterm Issues
-- Science Corner: Solar Storm Hits Earth
(0:00) Michael Burry's big short against AI
(12:00) Why Palantir is so richly https://t.co/f6aTPOOjG5
The longest shutdown, driven by Democrats, is finally OVER. They held America hostage for nothing.
Republicans never wanted a shutdown and fought every day to reopen it.
Now let’s get America BACK TO WORK! 🇺🇸 https://t.co/3fWPEe4nRG
Polymarket 🤝 @ufc @TKOGrp
The UFC has chosen to partner with Polymarket as its Exclusive and Official Prediction Market.
The UFC will be integrating a Polymarket Scoreboard into the fights that will show the realtime % likelihood of who will win.
When I watch UFC, I love https://t.co/Jj8bOi5k3A
“The days are long but the years are short.”
After 13 years of building, operating and hardening our platform of autonomous maritime drones, our team announced a critical partnership with Lockheed Martin a few weeks ago. Through this relationship, we will now equip our drones https://t.co/Dtvkq785Tx
Tomorrow on Cheeky Pint: Dave Ricks of @EliLillyandCo, the $800b pharmaceutical giant, joins @patrickc and me to talk about drug development, how Eli Lilly does R&D, and GLP-1s upending the pharma market. https://t.co/KKiIC7umyK
NEW: BBC to apologize for deceptively editing President Trump’s January 6 speech in an effort to make it look like he encouraged violence at the Capitol.
The apology letter is reportedly expected to come early next week.
“Samir Shah, the BBC’s chairman, will write to the https://t.co/cJixU8mSDD
This was beyond reckless and irresponsible.
They should play this “side by side” clip on BBC so people can see both versions and judge for themselves. https://t.co/6jMV199vJ6
3) Mamdani Wins NYC Mayoral Race
The election saw progressive Democrat Zohran Mamdani emerge victorious with about 50.4% of the vote, defeating independent former governor Andrew Cuomo (~41.6 %) and Republican Curtis Sliwa (~7.1 %). Mamdani becomes the city’s first Muslim mayor,
2) Prediction Markets as Search Infrastructure
Google announced a partnership with Polymarket and Kalshi to integrate real-time prediction data directly into Search and Google Finance, allowing users to see market-implied probabilities on questions ranging from election outcomes
3) Mamdani Wins NYC Mayoral Race
The election saw progressive Democrat Zohran Mamdani emerge victorious with about 50.4% of the vote, defeating independent former governor Andrew Cuomo (~41.6 %) and Republican Curtis Sliwa (~7.1 %). Mamdani becomes the city’s first Muslim mayor,
What I Read This Week...
1) Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay Package
Tesla shareholders have approved the largest executive compensation package in corporate history: $1 trillion in stock options for Elon Musk, contingent upon hitting a series of operational and market-cap
2) Prediction Markets as Search Infrastructure
Google announced a partnership with Polymarket and Kalshi to integrate real-time prediction data directly into Search and Google Finance, allowing users to see market-implied probabilities on questions ranging from election outcomes
What I Read This Week...
1) Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay Package
Tesla shareholders have approved the largest executive compensation package in corporate history: $1 trillion in stock options for Elon Musk, contingent upon hitting a series of operational and market-cap
POD UP! BIG WEEK!🚨🚨🚨
Brad Gerstner (@altcap) joins to recap a crazy week!
-- Does OpenAI Need a Bailout?
-- AI Bubble Pops?
-- State of the Market: Consumer, Middle Class Hurting
-- Zohran Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising
-- Filibuster Nuclear Option
(0:00) Brad Gerstner https://t.co/RaHJSaqEjr
In 2015, I marched for Bernie and donated to his campaign.
In 2019, after years of being a miserable democratic socialist who blamed everyone else for my sadness, I decided that I couldn’t stand being a miserable fuck anymore, and needed to start taking risks and aggressively https://t.co/tDMxImeuty
Worth reading the whole thing, but this is the most important thing:
“If Elon gets paid 1 trillion dollars, I will be a multimillionaire.”
It’s important who you hitch your wagon to.
Socialists have proven to be shitty wagons.
Modern Thomas Edison is a great wagon. https://t.co/9bQf5IFWZh
In 1870, Britain produced 31.8% of the world's manufactured goods. By 1913, it produced even more in absolute terms. Yet Britain felt weaker.
What changed?
America's share jumped from 23% to 32%, and Germany's from 13% to 15%, while Britain's plummeted to 14%.
In 1914, Britain https://t.co/4Jm3DEF1Pa
Deep Dive: China’s Global Strategy and Power Balance
Until recently, the modern United States had never faced a true systemic competitor.
Neither the Soviet Union nor the combined economies of Germany, Italy, and Japan during WW2 ever accounted for more than 60% of U.S. GDP. https://t.co/DRRwJUtAbW
In 1870, Britain produced 31.8% of the world's manufactured goods. By 1913, it produced even more in absolute terms. Yet Britain felt weaker.
What changed?
America's share jumped from 23% to 32%, and Germany's from 13% to 15%, while Britain's plummeted to 14%.
In 1914, Britain https://t.co/4Jm3DEF1Pa
Deep Dive: China’s Global Strategy and Power Balance
Until recently, the modern United States had never faced a true systemic competitor.
Neither the Soviet Union nor the combined economies of Germany, Italy, and Japan during WW2 ever accounted for more than 60% of U.S. GDP. https://t.co/DRRwJUtAbW
This week, Figure has passed 5 months running on the BMW X3 body shop production line
We have been running 10 hours per day, every single day of production!
It is believed that Figure and BMW are the first in the world to do this with humanoid robots https://t.co/zAXCbApXBJ
Here’s what I think will happen in NYC under Mahdami.
The free buses and government grocery stores won’t happen, they never do. They sound good during campaigns, but collapse under basic math. You can’t run a city on ideas that cost billions and produce no revenue.
The only way
Many of the key pillars of the Mamdani campaign are not possible as mayor. They need the state legislature and the Governor.
You can’t implement free buses, for example, at the city level. It is controlled by the MTA which is a state level organization. Nor can you implement a https://t.co/0asbywzCJq
@patrickmcavoy @chamath Phase out federal student loan guarantees and subsidies, forcing universities to price education competitively based on actual value and outcomes. This curbs tuition inflation—currently driven by easy credit—and slashes debt loads, freeing young people's earnings for tangible
@chamath feels like this is one of those rare cases where the supply chain is actually the front line. without full control over CAM, the illusion of energy independence is just leverage for whoever owns the bottleneck
@chamath I know @friedberg mentioned it briefly on All-In but do we know if we have the metals need on US soil to be mined domestically?
And are there any pushes to remove regulations in order to make mining in the US make economic sense?
@chamath Military drones running on foreign batteries is indefensible. One supply chain disruption and you're grounded. Domestic CAM solves that alone.
Why are batteries a national security issue?
It is THE energy source for critical applications today and, even more importantly, tomorrow:
Cars
Data Center Batteries (ESS)
Military and defense drones
Robots
If we are to be a resilient nation that is in control of our own https://t.co/wzPzrrhEac
Here is Peter Thiel’s email to Zuck and Andreessen in Jan-2020 predicting socialism.
Tl;dr too much student debt and lack of affordable housing keeps young people with negative capital for too long. And without a stake in the capitalist system, they will turn against it. https://t.co/BOKgwJ2cV0
Curious to get people’s thoughts on why, after a blockbuster IPO and continued growth, Airbnb stock has performed so poorly over the past 5 years relative to other tech stocks https://t.co/4ddzyOl51h
With immense gratitude and appreciation for @roelofbotha and his legendary leadership over the better part of a decade, @Alfred_Lin and I are honored to accept the torch and become the next stewards of @sequoia
Here is the note I shared internally: https://t.co/et9UZFG0Fg https://t.co/fuNIXI6Tnm
I am deeply honored, humbled, and will have big shoes to fill. @roelofbotha changed my life.
He believed in me, brought me to Sequoia, and taught me how to grow from a builder into an investor.
He’s demanding and deeply caring — the rare kind of friend, mentor, partner who https://t.co/UfgFUEKLI0
I have some news to share. After 11 incredible years, I’ve decided to retire as CEO of MongoDB. This was not an easy decision, but it’s the right time for a thoughtful transition.
I'm not taking a stance on whether inflammation drives cancer, but I will say it's very true that GLP-1 drugs reduce inflammation—a lot!
Tirzepatide at any dose greatly reduced levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and interleukin-6, two important inflammation markers: https://t.co/fXKkvwe6Z5 https://t.co/2SWUz7ero8
Many of Apple’s AI features have become much better over the past year. Apple Intelligence summaries are now quite handy, and voice dictation accuracy has markedly improved. The voice dictation even seems to have some local context to get custom proper nouns right.
@collision My lived experience with Apple is quite the opposite.
They fail at simple tasks like the time it takes to initiate a new FaceTime call from Contacts.
Simple repetitive behaviors need to be executable in milliseconds. Not many, many seconds.
It makes me question their
What I Read This Week...
1) OpenAI’s Corporate Evolution
After months of speculation, the company has formalized its transition into OpenAI Group PBC, a for-profit public benefit corporation currently valued at $500 billion, controlled by the original nonprofit foundation.
The
What I Read This Week...
1) OpenAI’s Corporate Evolution
After months of speculation, the company has formalized its transition into OpenAI Group PBC, a for-profit public benefit corporation currently valued at $500 billion, controlled by the original nonprofit foundation.
The
Scott Adams: @theallinpod is the most useful podcast in the world, by far.
@ScottAdamsSays "Because you're getting four of the smartest, plugged-in, high-talent-stack people who know how to communicate really well and get into the cool topics.
You can't beat them for being https://t.co/vojdqDa4jL
Appreciate you very much @ScottAdamsSays
People will memory hole how costly it was to communicate in the era of shadow banning and cancel culture, but it should be known to everyone that Scott was one of the early standard bearers in that era for free speech and freedom of https://t.co/OvKrgG2KR9
Pod up: 90 minutes with Bestie Elon! 🚀
@elonmusk joins to talk:
-- Three years of X
-- Grokipedia
-- Tesla vote and his future with the company
-- OpenAI lawsuit and for-profit conversion
-- AI power efficiency
-- Self-driving, robotaxis
-- Bill Gates flips on climate
-- https://t.co/lKAldrchDs
🔥 Chamath Stuns Pete Buttigieg
“Can I just say, as the only immigrant right now on this podcast who immigrated here legally, I feel much safer and better under a Donald Trump presidency than I ever did under a Biden presidency.” https://t.co/T1tpUw5vih
In the past, when a CEO needed air cover for layoffs or a strategy change, they’d hire McKinsey to tell them what they already knew and then point to the “consultants”.
Now they will point to “AI”, but it’s equally untrue.
It’s convenient to blame AI, and this diagnosis may eventually turn out to be right, but the current wave of job losses are not because of AI.
It is companies unwinding ZIRP and DEI hiring excesses that left them bloated and inefficient. https://t.co/N2VksQZZ8E
Bill Gates has significantly changed his stance on climate change, and in a new memo now says 'it will not lead to humanity's demise.' https://t.co/22X5TutRBF
Bill Gates lost a fortune shorting $TSLA and even more backing dumb ESG projects.
It seems his experiment is over and the results are in. https://t.co/8n0YDeDaBF
An important chart from @washingtonpost on energy costs – generation has become cheaper, but the cost of delivering energy to consumers across the grid has more than doubled. https://t.co/u4szdw2zpk
The simplest way to take advantage of this reality is to generate energy for yourself (marginal cost approaching zero) and cut out the utility middlemen who you pay for T&D (avoid the escalating prices).
Solar + Battery at home achieves this.
Palmetto is the fastest growing https://t.co/iQzk3ohHu6
Terrifying Reality of 2025
Financial sponsor built a prototype in 2 weeks during diligence on an AI-healthcare company.
Prototype outperformed the target’s core product in clinician testing.
Deal killed. https://t.co/l6X62EVHqC
Non obvious take: this is not AI job loss. This is the unwinding of the DEI-fueled Hiring Bonanza of the past decade.
Many jobs in that period were created under fragile pretenses / immutable traits. Ie, things other than talent.
But eventually the chickens come home to roost. https://t.co/ByMJClU9B6
Go search for your favorite topics. This is a really good start and, imo, almost equal to Wikipedia already on the topics covered. This will be obviously better than Wikipedia within a year… https://t.co/wEKvy6D3Iv
Pretty interesting:
Companies that have adopted AI aren't hiring fewer senior employees, but they have cut back on hiring juniors ones. https://t.co/AsxwakEw4F
See Gavin Newsom grew up just like African Americans.
That makes him very relatable.
Bread, Macaroni and cheese and basketball.
Total Hoop Dreams story.
https://t.co/AOPi6bgzdt
In a world of autonomous cars like Waymo and Cybercab:
Car insurance becomes a highly profitable but massively sub scale business.
Insurance so “you” can drive on the roads vs a robot will become a very expensive luxury good and be priced as such.
Most people won’t bother.
As goes Waymo so does Cybercab.
Waymo x Cybercab >>>> human driving.
I’m following the trail of breadcrumbs to update my opinions on:
- oil (meh)
- auto sales (meh)
- auto financing (ugh)
- auto parts (yuck)
- insurance (dead)
- retail infrastructure (?)
- residential zoning https://t.co/O9MvV0mYbK
What I read this week...
1) Meta will cut roughly 600 roles across its AI division, which has sparked confusion about whether the company is pulling back from artificial intelligence just as the rest of Big Tech doubles down. The details tell a different story.
The layoffs
What I read this week...
1) Meta will cut roughly 600 roles across its AI division, which has sparked confusion about whether the company is pulling back from artificial intelligence just as the rest of Big Tech doubles down. The details tell a different story.
The layoffs
Pod up! 💥
-- NBA Gambling Scandal
-- Tesla's Trillion Dollar Vote
-- Elon vs. Proxy Firms
-- CA Billionaire Tax
-- Amazon Robots & AWS Outage
-- AI Bias
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(1:02) CA Billionaire Tax
(17:00) Major NBA gambling scandal
(29:51) Amazon's eventful week: https://t.co/QQ1yIl7r8P
8090 is looking for exceptional software engineers. Fill out the form below if you're interested in joining our team.
Along with your application, I want to hear about the most exceptional product you've built. Include a video walking me through the product, the code, and
Friend posted this in a group chat and my immediate though my was:
These aren’t AI job losses. But they may very like be “Elon/X” job losses.
He fired 80% of Twitter and the company is operating the same/better.
Maybe many other companies see that and now also believe they https://t.co/rudl9iYgPy
Really interesting chart from @DKThomp
Stock market and job openings were highly correlated for decades.
No longer. Stock market up 75% and job openings down 33% since 2022.
Would think at least partially due to AI. https://t.co/PLZ7SSTQZx
@GavinSBaker @DKThomp It could also be that the plurality of the stock market is now highly concentrated across 7/8 companies who, on a relative basis, just don’t employ a lot of people so the stock market goes up won’t pull employment along with it.
“And there's been a lot of talk that one party at some point will try to eliminate the filibuster so that when they have a simple majority, they can pass any law they want.”
“Do you think Americans would be shocked if we really knew the inner workings to understand that at the end of the day, bipartisan coalitions and reforms literally stop on a dime on all number of issues because a person one day interprets and reads the tea leaves and says, no, yes, no.”
All-In Interview is BACK!🚨
Senator Joe Manchin joins Chamath and Jason to talk:
-- The inside story of blocking Build Back Better and saving the filibuster
-- How Biden's staff pushed him from centrist to far left
-- What it was like working with Obama, Trump, and Biden
-- https://t.co/57bwdBS9DD
This is an important discussion with Sen Joe Manchin, THE key figure that made sure the Biden Administration didn’t completely flip governance on its ear by eliminating the filibuster.
Listen to it in his own words - recounted from his book. https://t.co/isFuALibPb
@chamath You bumbling retard, why don't you add the full context for this article?
He's in favor of removing GIFTED programs for kindergarten because they are four years old and don't know left from right.
@humrashid Brilliant kids are visibly brilliant even younger than kindergarten.
Not knowing that, though, isn’t your fault - it just means you’re average at best.
@chamath Unless I’m mistaken, you are pretty against the legalization of recreational cannabis. I’m sincerely curious, why are you okay with one drug vs the other?
@srbyrne Yes. Alcohol does have a negative feedback loop that is obvious to you (wake up with a ripping hangover for example). Cannabis’ negative feedback loop on you is more obvious to those around you (you become a zombie).
I’m not a huge fan of alcohol tbh but it has better checks
The percentage of US adults who say they drink alcohol has plummeted to 54%, the lowest in the history of a Gallup poll that goes back nearly 90 years.
https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih https://t.co/9pHatlN5wV
Congrats to @DraftKings on their acquisition of @RailbirdHQ.
We’re proud for Polymarket Clearing to be their designated clearinghouse as they enter the prediction market space.
Amazon’s total number of deployed robots has 66x in 10 years.
The robotics program began after its 2012 acquisition of Kiva Systems for $775m. It aimed at automating warehouse picking and sorting.
What started as a logistics efficiency project has evolved into one of the https://t.co/veRDDoeuPC https://t.co/SBkGcPlJYt
We recently released a primer on how Amazon became the backbone of ecommerce and the internet, as yesterday’s AWS outage reminded the world.
Check out my Substack if you want to learn with me: https://t.co/yptG7PyuPo
Amazon’s total number of deployed robots has 66x in 10 years.
The robotics program began after its 2012 acquisition of Kiva Systems for $775m. It aimed at automating warehouse picking and sorting.
What started as a logistics efficiency project has evolved into one of the https://t.co/veRDDoeuPC https://t.co/SBkGcPlJYt
BREAKING: OpenAI has quietly hired over 100 former Wall Street bankers, including alumni from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, to help train its AI on building financial models
Codenamed “Project Mercury,” the effort pays contractors $150 an hour to write prompts and
For whoever is keeping score, @ElonMusk has cofounded the 1st, 2nd, and 5th-most valuable private companies in the world right now, as well as the 10th-most valuable public company in the world. I genuinely don't understand why anyone feels courageous enough to bet against him. https://t.co/HEMnrB5fBT
Chamath: Hyperscalers should subsidize residential electricity costs to solve AI’s PR crisis
Right now, there is a narrative that “AI may take your job while doubling your electric bill.”
That narrative has contributed to the recent cancellation of three major datacenter https://t.co/fIbSuLXsDT
@bruhmatrix No. In fact they support what we tell our customers:
Focus on a governed, opinionated SDLC. That is what our software factory gives them.
App crappers are just next-gen toolware sprawl after SaaS toolware sprawl.
Here are two very important charts about the current AI boom.
Chart 1: Distribution Matters
Open AI is still the clear leader but, interestingly, they are loosing percentage share as the market grows. This is normal for a category leader but it’s curious who they are losing https://t.co/zSuwhcqth4
STARBUCKS CEO BRIAN NICCOL SAYS THE COFFEE GIANT IS “ALL-IN ON AI” — REVEALS REAL-TIME ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SYSTEMS DESIGNED TO ASSIST BARISTAS AND TRANSFORM STORE OPERATIONS
Huh? Starbucks is a retail sugar company.
If he is serious, here is what it would mean to be “all in on AI”:
A) all drinks made by robots by 2030 (Optimus or Figure)
B) deprecating legacy Software Industrial Complex licenses (SBUX is probably paying billions per year in https://t.co/Bzm1H4Alzs
What I Read This Week...
1) On Monday, JPMorgan Chase announced a sweeping plan to deploy $1.5 trillion in financing over the next decade toward what it calls “security and resiliency”.
The categories are a blend of industrial strategy, national defense, and infrastructure
What I Read This Week...
1) On Monday, JPMorgan Chase announced a sweeping plan to deploy $1.5 trillion in financing over the next decade toward what it calls “security and resiliency”.
The categories are a blend of industrial strategy, national defense, and infrastructure
I have been an investor in @PalmettoEnergy for many years now.
They are the fastest growing residential energy company in America.
Their offer is simple: get off the treadmill of rising utility rates in your area, become more resilient and upgrade your infrastructure to
🚨 Besties are BACK
-- US-China trade tensions, price floors, mercantilism
-- How the US can on-shore a full-stack rare earth industry
-- National Guard in SF?: State of crime, new leadership
-- AI's PR Crisis: Three recent datacenters cancelled
(0:00) Bestie intros! https://t.co/rR8JFc6mQj
AI will change our healthcare experience - much more than it'll change how care is billed and documented...
Today, @Color and @Google announced a program that allows any woman across the US to get direct access to mammograms - thanks to AI.
Useful new service if you have a history of breast cancer or are a woman over 40 and haven't had a mammogram in the past year... https://t.co/stagWusjTg
Gratitude, San Francisco! 🌉❤️
Our biggest & safest #Dreamforce ever is now wrapped! Huge thanks to @SFPD — & to the 200 additional officers who joined this week. Today, in gratitude, we’re giving $1M to @SFPD for new sign-on bonuses so SF can keep hiring, rebuilding, & keeping https://t.co/31NM4Bx1aP
Marc is showing the way.
More cops on the street enforcing the law is a good thing. It lets law abiding folks go about their lives in peace and security. https://t.co/mw6DnNRKkV
Wow.
The US just posted a massive surplus of +$198 Billion for the month of September.
🟢 Total Receipts: $544B
🔴 Total Outlays: $346B
$30 Billion in tariffs collected. https://t.co/2iMLQyRrhj
1929 vs 2025: Andrew Ross Sorkin on Crashes, Bubbles & Lessons Learned
The All-In Interview is BACK! 🚨
@andrewrsorkin joins @chamath and @friedberg to discuss:
-- His new book on the 1929 market crash
-- Parallels to 2025?
-- How AI factors in
-- Post-crash socialism flare https://t.co/1aec6Wp3Mb
Wholesale electricity costs as much as 267% more than it did five years ago in areas near data centers. That’s being passed on to customers. https://t.co/3Xcsk7iP2u
Google was about to lose a vote by the Indianapolis City council and withdrew a proposal for a $1B data center.
Microsoft pulled a similar project in Wisconsin based on community pushback.
Are these isolated incidents or the beginning of a trend?
If the data below is https://t.co/KN2Y6wNIvg
How Orlando Bravo Built One of the Most Successful Firms in Private Equity
(0:00) Introducing Orlando Bravo
(1:53) Orlando’s history, Puerto Rico origins, how he got into private equity
(7:10) How he runs Thoma Bravo: small team, outward facing, mentorship, patience in https://t.co/lFFXPaaB0U
.@OrlandoBravoTB is one of the goats.
He’s singularly focused on DPI and has built ThomaBravo into an incredible platform. He also has an inspiring story from growing up in Puerto Rico to climbing the top of the PE mountain.
Worth a watch. https://t.co/LhwiXhUdZM
I have written my first book! A passion project of almost 10 years, Runnin' Down a Dream aims to give people both the motivation & the methods for thriving in a career they actually love. Put a lot of heart and soul into this - hope you ❤️ it. Pre-order: https://t.co/vR4XG6JxDy
Anthropic is running a sophisticated regulatory capture strategy based on fear-mongering. It is principally responsible for the state regulatory frenzy that is damaging the startup ecosystem. https://t.co/C5RuJbVi4P
I wonder if those that use Claude Code or the umpteen app-crappers that wrap Anthropic realize they are funding their own demise?
Only the biggest and well funded companies (like Anthropic) will be able to afford the operational complexity of meeting 50 different sets of state https://t.co/fXZ1c7ozwV
@chamath If by demise, you mean replacement by AI, then yeah. I believe that is inevitable, so I might as well get as much out of the transition while I can.
Burn bright now, then survive as an ember for a decade until the world changes to UBI.
$FVAC closed it merger with MP Materials today. I led the PIPE.
This creates the largest source of rare earth metals outside of China.
Rare earths are a critical input into critical climate change and battery technologies.
Ticker changes to $MP and starts trading tomorrow!🤤
Oldie but a goodie.
I did this almost five years ago…as the stock approaches $100, this was definitively one of the few SPAC deals of that era that worked!
No crying in the casino! https://t.co/jaoSLBYxEw
@chamath thank you, i was genuinely curious what you care about. I do think commenting on the state of health in america then investing in Lunchly is slightly hypocritical. From the outsider i think you need more congruence, kind of like elon.
First impressions matter, & Meta really blew it with the Ray-Ban Displays.
I was ready to buy them on launch, but instead of letting me order them, they forced me to book an in-person demo, and the soonest slot was at Best Buy.
It was a complete disaster.
-The rep wasn’t https://t.co/Vv3G3ALHXM
BREAKING: MASSIVE #BITCOIN WHALE TURNS BEARISH.
A single trader just opened a massive $420 million short on $BTC through Hyperliquid.
He deposited $80 million in USDC and used over 5x leverage to bet against BTC. On top of that, he transferred $50 million to Binance, likely to https://t.co/LHI1tBhO9Q
An observation about TradFi vs Crypto.
Whales in TradFi would put big trades on and *hope* their directional bias would leak and then become the market expectation.
In DeFi, whales put big trades on and their actions are immediately syndicated and amplified automatically on https://t.co/NNuw5v2EhI
To be very clear, Trump did not kill solar. In fact the best run solar businesses are thriving post BBB.
What Trump did, precisely, is kill a bunch of Biden-era subsidies that were being taken advantage of by many companies to pervert a free market from well functioning to https://t.co/6DIDyNzJzJ
@chamath Good points Chamath. Wouldn’t we want to keep these subsidies so we can compete with China in this arena though? If you look at a chart build out of solar in China it’s growing exponentially. Why aren’t we competing as fast to build up our solar infrastructure?
@chamath The BBB was signed into law 90 days ago. If you're going to claim that businesses are already thriving because of it you better have some evidence.
@chamath How is it you can support a free market and concede it leads to a differentiating the best from the rest, while also defending these tariffs?
The tariffs pervert the market much more drastically and are being used as a tool for insider trading.
Generation from coal, hydro & nuclear will stay roughly flat through the 2020s, which means all growth has to come from gas, solar & wind. Gas has very tight supply chains. Wind and solar are increasingly difficult to permit. I'm increasingly worried we're headed for the cliff. https://t.co/gwACgHn0lW
Something I genuinely wonder: why do anti capitalists seem a lot more bothered with the incomes of CEOs than incomes of elite athletes, musicians, actors etc?
My guess they can comprehend the uniqueness of the skills of Taylor Swift or LeBron James but they have no idea what https://t.co/WcC8qTZ4QI
I think it’s the difference between inherited vs evolved differentiation.
People can excuse people who were born “different”. “They can jump, they can sing, I cannot.” Being the rationalization.
It’s much harder, however, for people to confront someone who was born the same https://t.co/jV2Oo3zkJ2
What I Read This Week...
1) China Tightens Control over Minerals and Money
On October 9th, China added five heavy rare earths to its export-control list and requires licensing for processing equipment that will go into effect on December 1st.
The move is framed as a safeguard
What I Read This Week...
1) China Tightens Control over Minerals and Money
On October 9th, China added five heavy rare earths to its export-control list and requires licensing for processing equipment that will go into effect on December 1st.
The move is framed as a safeguard
High agency is believing you can learn new things and work hard to solve tough problems no matter how complicated.
Low agency is sitting around making fun of people who try. https://t.co/8InR89amiP
One general and one specific takeaway from this about politics, elections and leaders:
Candidates win elections on hope for the future. As such, it has largely been (and likely will remain) true that popularity is maximal once elected and then wanes. It’s true in the UK and many https://t.co/nFDVtPT5Mu
The corollary to this is that “experts” are mostly insecure windbags who care more about gatekeeping their knowledge than actually solving problems.
Jared was way more likely to solve the ME conflict than the gaggle of “experts” who tried before him simply by being open minded, https://t.co/R7SkmkqMk6
Alright. Seems like it's wartime with the CCP.
Folks, reply to this thread with the top American startups tackling the rare earth mineral supply chain.
Whether it's tunnelling machines, deepsea mining autonomous UUV, drones for prospecting, post below.
Time to fund them all.
They are definitely going to try…but a 100% China tariff by POTUS is a very smart response.
With 20%+ youth unemployment in China, the tariff attacks at the heart of a fragile Chinese economy. https://t.co/a09WlbEioX
First Google in Indiana and now Microsoft in Wisconsin. The local and political pushback against data centers is just getting started and will quickly snowball if there isn’t more education around the composition of residential electricity rates and what’s driving the increase https://t.co/7uz5TdQvVu
The simple solution for hyperscalers is as follows:
Option A: agree to a higher rate base with the utility so that you can guarantee people in the local geography won’t see increased electricity rates.
Option B: agree to pay for resi solar + storage for local citizens so they https://t.co/8tXrjd7D90
Unpopular opinion: China did us a huge favor today. The sooner American weaknesses are exposed the sooner we can fix them.
Fortunately, this is one hole we can dig ourselves out of by actual digging.
Let’s go !
True.
China is formidable, but so is America.
We need to have complete internal resiliency. The critical capabilities to support our society must not be gated by another country and their priorities. https://t.co/riYpoOI85Z
“So when that oil sits in the ground, the longer it sits in the ground, the less valuable it is to you because it doesn't actually add to your balance sheet.”
“In the meantime, you have an abundance of electrons from nat gas. You have an abundance of electrons, frankly, from solar. And all of these things will ultimately diminish the net long bid to oil.”
“He's buying forward capacity on HBM because now he can allocate that share. So when I saw that deal and I saw that equity, it reminded me of this Rothschild quote.”
“That's just the CapEx. Then you have to think of what the OpEx is. The OpEx is probably the same multiplied by the useful life, which is probably twenty years.”
“You'll have knowledge that becomes a market, and then you'll ultimately have equities and debt instruments also behave this way, meaning they'll be tokenized.”
🚨 Pod up: The fifth bestie returns @altcap
Welcome back Brad Gerstner!
-- Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal
-- National Guard in Chicago
-- OpenAI-AMD deal
-- AI Roundtripping and the Bubble Myth
-- Gold Rally
-- Polymarket $2B investment, future of prediction markets https://t.co/bsGjjC9mXw
A Polymarket user figured out who won the Nobel Peace Prize almost 11 hours before the official announcement from the Nobel Committee.
The Nobel Committee just got front-run by the internet.
The market was trading at $0.08 and rose to $1.00, a 100x gain for those who got in https://t.co/C4UiETeqtH
Impressive; it appears that today’s leaders are processing trillions of tokens per month, and the trend is upward!
Google: 1.3 Quadrillion / month
OpenAI: 260 Trillion / month
Groq: 50+ Trillion / month https://t.co/YXojpOTdfl
Just wanted to give a huge shoutout to my sister, Hasini. She worked on behalf of the leading hospital system in Toronto to bring @neuralink there.
A very complicated set of agreements making them the first place outside of the US to do this groundbreaking work.
She’s an https://t.co/E1xDCydwQI
NVIDIA CEO:
• China way ahead on energy
• U.S. way ahead on chips
• China competitive on infrastructure
• China competitive on AI models
• China way ahead in open-source models
• U.S. frontier models better overall
• China has lighter industrial regulation
• China https://t.co/gMMGleLKVI
Jensen describes the status quo very accurately.
America needs to massively increase our energy output so the rest of our competitive advantages can compound unimpeded. https://t.co/7ki1aCVvaQ
In a technology race, the company that innovates fastest wins.
All you need are a billion AI chips, a terawatt of power and 100M robots. https://t.co/jJvAdECJwj
A reminder from Elon about the bitter lesson.
The following coordination of machines and electrons will win:
1B AI chips
1 TW power
100M robots
This is now all about capital, speed and scale. https://t.co/vQqSobW72X
Exclusive from @melmason on Katie Porter, who berates a staffer and tells her to “get out of my fucking shot!” while recording a video with the Biden administration.
The video + story — scooped by @politico👇🏼
https://t.co/WENFsRlkwC https://t.co/47dQ3n6nWJ
When geopolitical & socio-economic tensions rise, both people & nations turn to hard assets.
One big buyer in particular has been Beijing. China has been swapping Treasuries for gold for years, lifting reserves to over 74m ounces.
This is a reflection of both state policy and https://t.co/mkMkZwJxvr https://t.co/tetYiY4x1P
When geopolitical & socio-economic tensions rise, both people & nations turn to hard assets.
One big buyer in particular has been Beijing. China has been swapping Treasuries for gold for years, lifting reserves to over 74m ounces.
This is a reflection of both state policy and https://t.co/mkMkZwJxvr https://t.co/tetYiY4x1P
Amazon raising Blackwell per hour pricing.
H200 rental pricing going up *after* Blackwell scale deployments ramping up.
Might be important.
And certainly more important than ridiculous $300 billion deals that are contingent on future fund raising.
I have a feeling $NVDA, $ORCL, $AMD, $INTC and OpenAI have realized if they circle jerk each other they become "Too Big To Fail"
When it implodes, their intertwined balance sheets will be the excuse for a government bailout of "systemically important technology firms" https://t.co/AWjlc4ReF4
BREAKING - The leading Democrat in the race to replace California Governor Gavin Newsom, Katie Porter, had a full-blown meltdown at a journalist who suggested she might need some Republican voters to win. https://t.co/Np8OzSMZYm
The AI boom/bubble now has the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) with the same eight largest stocks (table).
These two indices are merging into the same thing. https://t.co/espWkxAFkh https://t.co/0eh2qHKSDm
I think the odds are non zero that Bryce plays at Arizona for a year, declares for the draft and we see him, Bronny and Bron all playing on the Lakers in 2026.
This story from @chamath on the experience of 8090 trying to sell software to PE is an almost perfect example of the differences between PE & VC.
So 8090 meets with a bunch of PE Partners and pitches the idea that they can do custom built, AI native software, that can make you https://t.co/PC92De7B2T
@BigJohn043 This is incorrect.
There are many customers with solutions working in production. In fact, we simply share a list of all work underway and tell the PE companies they are welcome to call any of them.
But they don’t do it. 🤷🏽♂️
Markets on everything.
We’re proud to announce that $ICE, the owner of @NYSE and the largest exchange company in the world, is making a strategic investment of $2 billion into Polymarket, valuing us at $9 billion post-money.
Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in https://t.co/oShaglRx9p
Everything is markets.
Incredibly proud to be a partner of @Polymarket and @shayne_coplan. This guy is a beast.
Also, personally, I’m excited to work more closely with Jeff Sprecher and @NYSE!! https://t.co/WzWsXFsX6t
Japan just shocked the world.
Sanae Takaichi is now Prime Minister, Japan’s first-ever female leader and she’s coming in swinging with huge stimulus plans.
Markets are ripping and investors everywhere are bracing for what comes next.
(a thread) https://t.co/s3urdvoP9x
She’s right wing (ish) and believes in deficit spending when there is a high savings rate.
IOW, money printer in Japan about to go brrrrrrrr… https://t.co/OIFCS1ZtQX
This week, Figure has passed 5 months running on the BMW X3 body shop production line
We have been running 10 hours per day, every single day of production!
It is believed that Figure and BMW are the first in the world to do this with humanoid robots https://t.co/zAXCbApXBJ
The @theallinpod guys really understand tech & VC. But they have no real insight into things like private equity and monetary policy.
Venture capital returns have always been challenging. More importantly, they have been highly concentrated in a hand full of Valley VC funds https://t.co/pFOmExpY0H
Chamath: “Private equity in general is totally hosed.” 🏢🚨
“I think the history of this is important.”
“There was a long standing belief that the best way to generate the best risk adjusted return was to have what's called a 60/40 allocation. 60% to bonds and 40% to equities.” https://t.co/ySXSpY9HHq
It used to be the case that tech companies viewed each other as the competition.
These deals increasingly show that the competition is everyone NOT in tech.
The haves/have nots are becoming very brightly delineated rn.
Grokipedia is going to be the world's biggest, most accurate knowledge source, for humans and AI with no limits on use
Currently, Grok is using massive amounts of inference compute to look at, sources like Wikipedia page and asking: What’s true, partially true, false, or https://t.co/Cox8t0Pkmx
An important feature of Grokipedia will be “The Big Diff List”:
A list of the most manipulated Wikipedia pages (from the Grokipedia truth baseline) so that Google search deboosts those pages from search AND Common Crawl excludes them from training data.
In other words, if the https://t.co/YKnQaDpcBO
3) Last week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer moved to mandate a national digital ID by the end of this Parliament (targeting 2029).
The Parliament’s goal is to help combat illegal working and streamlining citizens’ access to vital government services. Government statistics note 10%
2) At 12:01 AM on October 1, the U.S. federal government officially shut down as a result of neither Republican or Democratic funding bills reaching the necessary 60 votes in the Senate.
Unlike typical budget disputes, the fight is over healthcare policy.
Democrats are
3) Last week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer moved to mandate a national digital ID by the end of this Parliament (targeting 2029).
The Parliament’s goal is to help combat illegal working and streamlining citizens’ access to vital government services. Government statistics note 10%
What I read this week...
1) This was a big week for AI video generation with Meta launching Vibes on September 25 and OpenAI following five days later with Sora 2.
Meta moved first with Vibes, an AI video feed within the Meta AI app, built in partnership with MidJourney and
2) At 12:01 AM on October 1, the U.S. federal government officially shut down as a result of neither Republican or Democratic funding bills reaching the necessary 60 votes in the Senate.
Unlike typical budget disputes, the fight is over healthcare policy.
Democrats are
What I read this week...
1) This was a big week for AI video generation with Meta launching Vibes on September 25 and OpenAI following five days later with Sora 2.
Meta moved first with Vibes, an AI video feed within the Meta AI app, built in partnership with MidJourney and
Everyone should read this. If you align “hard” with a political party you have turned off your brain and outsourced your thinking to others. Data is clear on both sides of aisle. Think for oneself. https://t.co/uNiZBJODY4
Besties are back! 🚨
-- $55B EA take private, largest LBO ever
-- Saudi's gaming strategy
-- Is PE cooked?
-- The AI rollup opportunity
-- SPAC 2.0
-- AI video apps: slop or future of content?
-- China's open source AI dominance
-- State AI regulation frenzy
(0:00) https://t.co/AtKLf7uEwM
So how did a country once known for cheap toys and textiles leapfrog into EVs, solar, and AI?
Can China sustain growth under mounting debt, demographics, and political centralization?
How does China's coordinated approach to tech development compare to the West's market-driven https://t.co/o36YM6mYzf
At the same time, China has considerable assets:
The country now has one of the world's best transportation networks, busiest ports, manufacturing capacity, high voltage transmission lines, and digital infrastructure.
It built more solar energy capacity in 2024 than the U.S.
So how did a country once known for cheap toys and textiles leapfrog into EVs, solar, and AI?
Can China sustain growth under mounting debt, demographics, and political centralization?
How does China's coordinated approach to tech development compare to the West's market-driven https://t.co/o36YM6mYzf
Fiscally, China’s large investments are reflected in its debt-to-GDP ratio.
Officially, China’s government debt sits at 96.3%.
But this “official” number leaves out the huge debts of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), which borrow off-budget to fund infrastructure and https://t.co/TVyJ0luK6I
At the same time, China has considerable assets:
The country now has one of the world's best transportation networks, busiest ports, manufacturing capacity, high voltage transmission lines, and digital infrastructure.
It built more solar energy capacity in 2024 than the U.S.
Beijing doesn’t simply pick “National Champions” and back them with unlimited capital. That would be highly inefficient - the Soviets tried it and, broadly speaking, failed.
Part of what separates modern-day China’s state-backed model from the Soviets is decentralization. https://t.co/zKI0KtcTpl
Fiscally, China’s large investments are reflected in its debt-to-GDP ratio.
Officially, China’s government debt sits at 96.3%.
But this “official” number leaves out the huge debts of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), which borrow off-budget to fund infrastructure and https://t.co/TVyJ0luK6I
Deep Dive: China’s Industrial Might and Domestic Policy
About 6 months ago, after an eye-opening dinner with two CEOs building an American supply chain for EV battery materials and rare earths, I posted on X:
“The difficulty in beating China won’t come down to tariffs but
Beijing doesn’t simply pick “National Champions” and back them with unlimited capital. That would be highly inefficient - the Soviets tried it and, broadly speaking, failed.
Part of what separates modern-day China’s state-backed model from the Soviets is decentralization. https://t.co/zKI0KtcTpl
Deep Dive: China’s Industrial Might and Domestic Policy
About 6 months ago, after an eye-opening dinner with two CEOs building an American supply chain for EV battery materials and rare earths, I posted on X:
“The difficulty in beating China won’t come down to tariffs but
One of the great things in building Software Factory at https://t.co/UAxNYUWgf0 is that our customers have pulled us into building them some very interesting new features.
Like a car, Software Factory was initially designed to work best in “D”. The Factory runs forward - allows https://t.co/GL4xNuWFlO
President Trump got Intel to give Team America 10% of itself at $0. An insane negotiation.
All of this upside accrues to American taxpayers which is really incredible.
Trump now has a better IRR than Buffett. Deal with it because its mathematically true. https://t.co/qAls3GOjZ6
Corrupt websites + hi order search ranking == simplest way to manipulate AI training data
Need training to move to synthetic data that isn’t subject to these hacks asap.
The knock-on effect of a biased Wikipedia:
LLMs ingest and learn from a biased Wikipedia and then becomes biased itself…
Ask yourself if this is the best way to know what’s actually going on…
https://t.co/jQYB8NbfKv https://t.co/71FHWhwXBs
CARUSO: “We are spending in the city of Los Angeles $900,000 per [homeless] person that they're removing from the streets.”
CHAMATH: “$900,000 per year??”
CARUSO: “Yeah!”
CHAMATH: “Oh my God!” https://t.co/Rkho0cMMCH
Insane… $900k/yr in LA is spent per homeless person.
Imagine the number of homes that could be built and sold to teachers, cops and firefighters with this! https://t.co/VuffAGTuW4
As with all phases of the capital markets cycle, there are the pioneers, the fast followers, mainstream practitioners and the laggards with each group bigger than the one before it.
The issue here is that with 19k PE firms, this asset class is firmly in the “laggard” bucket. https://t.co/R4Kw3xQGvu
hey rich people, you shouldn't be spending more than $50,000/yr on top tier health care. Even an all-out at-home clinic like mine is ~$300k.
The most powerful health and longevity therapies available to you are no alcohol, finishing eating 4 hrs before bed, screens off 60 min
@chamath A consistent theme in American foreign language programs is that students can read/write, some can even understand (hear), but they spend practically no time speaking (far more useful). Other countries don't have this issue - curriculum needs to be adjusted.
Do you think you
@SPXplays @SanityInNY @grok Sinhalese. But my dad stopped speaking it in the house so my mom could learn English when we got refugee status so she could will get a job. Unfortunately I don’t know the language anymore.
An important milestone for every software company in Silicon Valley is closing an unaffiliated, outside of the bubble, paying customer
I quote @DavidSacks on this a lot because having one promising logo that’s your friend’s company or a dozen YC companies doing you a favor isn’t
Kiyoko has been with Tesla for 12 years.
She used her hard-earned Tesla stock – and the tremendous value it’s generated over the years – to purchase a new home for her family.
At Tesla, we believe in sharing our success & empowering our people through our employee equity https://t.co/flV9UTRnPa
@BasedTycoon No. I would say 70-80%. Serviceable in social settings but too stunted to do real business. Italian vocab is broad. I’d need a year or two living there permanently to perfect it I think.
I’ve now seen two viral clips in the last week of multilingual professional athletes. JK dobbins speaking Spanish (kind of) and Amon-Ra St. Brown speaking German (perfectly fluent).
I hope they make it cool to speak a second language (and even a third).
You won’t regret it.
@chamath The voice audio of AI is so telltale. Once that's addressed, it'll be even harder to tell the difference. I've always said Total Recall had it backwards (or did it), in the future you'll pay for authenticity instead of VR/AR.
Thank you to @DavidSacks, @chamath, @friedberg, @Jason, and the entire @theallinpod @allinsummit team for an incredible event!
It was a spectacular three days connecting with business and technology leaders, learning about the exciting AI innovations being built, and how $IREN https://t.co/8JlXY9iTQf
All of these media deals either make complete sense or absolutely no sense because of the below.
In my opinion, it seems like these deals are the equivalent of trying to catch a falling knife.
It may make much more sense to wait a year or two and then start a de novo studio https://t.co/cNUCkZeO0w
Over the past few years, DoorDash Labs has been building one of the most sophisticated autonomy stacks designed for the real-world challenges of local delivery.
Today, we're introducing Dot, the first commercial autonomous delivery robot to travel on bike lanes, roads, and https://t.co/P2JS8moA17
This is awesome. So many new form factors will be sharing our lives in the next few years...excited to use what Stan and his team have cooked up! https://t.co/LepGfFrQb2
Secondly, and more importantly, I want to temper retail investors’ involvement with my SPACs. This deal was built for institutional investors. Specifically, 98.7 percent went to large institutions, each picked explicitly by me. The remaining 1.3 percent was allocated to retail https://t.co/jhIMA8GYSt
Money movement hasn’t kept up with the way companies actually operate. Stablecoins change that.
Brex customers will soon be able to:
💳 Pay their Brex card balance in stablecoins — the first global corporate card to make this possible
🪙 Send and receive stablecoins directly
Yet another example of the decay in the UK.
A dysfunctional capital markets married to increasing regulation offers nothing to business owners. Without growing businesses, there can be no thriving economy.
This is America’s moment to cement its place as the singular https://t.co/Q6S7u8T2u3
🚨NEW: Tucker Carlson *BLOWN AWAY* as Wikipedia Co-Founder Larry Sanger walks him through site’s "BLACKLIST"🤯🤣
"Oh, wow ... this is kind of incredible!"
"This is so funny! This is amazing!"
@DailyCaller https://t.co/5zHZStbVnP
Do this search for yourself and see the green sources vs the red sources.
Now ask yourself if this kind of one sided censorship is the best way for you to get the unfiltered truth.
It may be that Wikipedia is a massive psyop. https://t.co/HR69L9sNM4
I have seen how the perception of SPACs became clouded, particularly related to sponsor compensation, forward guidance and retail investors’ involvement. With American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp. A, I wanted to address this directly and make improvements based on what I’ve https://t.co/jhIMA8GYSt
🚨KEIR STARMER COLLAPSES UNDER QUESTIONING ON DIGITAL I.D
"Bosses who want to hire illegal workers aren't going to check for their Digital I.D"
"Well we have to be really clear they must check"
"But they're not going to are they"
He's a clown 🤡 https://t.co/FpZtKjJ5Of
Oof.
The Labour Party’s intellectual justification of this is flimsy. It’s even more concerning since they seem to have married this idea to a naive understanding of how the economy works. The journalist does a good job in exposing this.
To implement this kind of program https://t.co/FA8LpHutAV
“Now if you started to tell me that these were the best in class PhDs in all of these whiz bang industries where the companies are raising billions and billions of dollars, you guys already know that this salary would not pass the smell test.”
3) In a milestone for neurology, uniQure’s experimental gene therapy, AMT-130, demonstrated a statistically significant slowing of disease progression in a Phase I/II clinical trial.
The trial suggested that high-dose patients had up to 75% slower decline than matched controls
2) On Friday Sept. 19, President Donald Trump announced a new $100,000 annual fee for H-1B visas.
The intent is to curb abuses of the system and protect American workers by discouraging reliance on foreign technical labor.
In further steps to reform the H-1B program, the
3) In a milestone for neurology, uniQure’s experimental gene therapy, AMT-130, demonstrated a statistically significant slowing of disease progression in a Phase I/II clinical trial.
The trial suggested that high-dose patients had up to 75% slower decline than matched controls
What I read this week...
1) OpenAI and NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA AI systems over the next several years, with NVIDIA committing up to $100 billion in phased investment.
This ties OpenAI to NVIDIA’s roadmap of the Vera Rubin
2) On Friday Sept. 19, President Donald Trump announced a new $100,000 annual fee for H-1B visas.
The intent is to curb abuses of the system and protect American workers by discouraging reliance on foreign technical labor.
In further steps to reform the H-1B program, the
What I read this week...
1) OpenAI and NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA AI systems over the next several years, with NVIDIA committing up to $100 billion in phased investment.
This ties OpenAI to NVIDIA’s roadmap of the Vera Rubin
BREAKING 🚨 UK government makes Digital IDs mandatory: 'You will not be able to work in the United Kingdom if you do not have a digital ID, it's as simple as that.' https://t.co/xGEJDJ2bMC
Most of the world’s GDP and revenues are from companies that aren’t in Silicon Valley.
They can’t, and won’t simply “move fast and break things”. They would rather “go slow to go fast” or “be accurate and right the first time”.
Today’s AI tools are largely meant to build https://t.co/7FM55AI4HT
🚨 POD UP: Besties are back!
-- H-1B Shakeup
-- Kimmel Apology
-- Autism Causes
-- Major AI papers
-- California Hate Speech Law
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(2:23) H-1B overhaul: origins and exploitation
(25:26) Autism linked to Tylenol usage during pregnancy
(43:42) Jimmy Kimmel https://t.co/LfX36IxGZd
@chamath I met your VP of Sales at the All in Summit! Amazing guy. Really impressive. Treated me like I was absolute gold even tho I wasn’t in his field! If that’s how your company culture is your a great leader!
A quick update on 8090 and our Software Factory. We've been in a controlled release through our Alpha waitlist and it was going well so we decided to let everyone from the waitlist in over the past few weeks and move through a beta phase...
...the traffic and usage was
@WallStreetApes @chamath I know you are hard at work crushing batteries and other things, BUT I’m telling you there is an arbitrage opportunity in healthcare
HERE IS WHY IS $INTC UP 10% OVERNIGHT
TRUMP TO MANDATE 1:1 RATIO OF DOMESTIC TO IMPORTED CHIPS,
This puts pressure on $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO and others tied to $TSM, as tariffs could squeeze margins and force a U.S. production shift. Designers relying on overseas fabs will need to https://t.co/NcaPYuOAcS
I spent time with Blackstone’s Global Head of Real Estate, Nadeem Meghji, today.
I came away really excited about the scale of data center, energy and infrastructure development that the world will need and how we can work together to do it.
I was also really impressed with https://t.co/fpOBot5kXz
I had the opportunity to spend time in Abu Dhabi with Chamath, and I can confidently say that I am thrilled by what I’ve heard and what’s on the horizon. https://t.co/gg7A5vXeYy
The real AI play is the energy.
Global data center power demand will double in the next 5 years and triple by 2034.
Niche companies that can supply power to or store it for data centers will skyrocket.
$ET $CEG $FLNC $BEP $NEE https://t.co/FQpW51ACcX
Chamath: Charlie Kirk was absolutely right about America’s youth
"One of the most powerful things that I think Charlie got absolutely and precisely right was the plight of young people."
"Meaning the malaise, and the anxiety, and what was at the root cause of it."
"At the root https://t.co/FiTL7dPBng
@chamath tokenization does seem like a potentially efficient (and lucrative) way to allocate scarce AI compute power - are any of your companies building in this space?
I met Chamath Palihapitiya, Founder and CEO of Social Capital, where we discussed global technological shifts and the economics of AI, with a focus on energy as a defining factor and the latest developments in large-scale adoption and implementation.
We also examined the future https://t.co/hOLFLFz7Vf
In the future, there will be a quasi-infinite amount of compute and power that will look to revolutionize every industry of the global economy through AI.
I was so impressed with Sheikh Tahnoon’s vision for this future and the role of the UAE in it.
I’m excited to come back https://t.co/jymwMGRqKi
I’ve sat through over 50 hours of Charlie Kirk’s videos as an ethnically Black American.
Not one racist word.
Not 1.
What Democrats do is cut snippets, strip context, and shove sound bites at the same gullible slob audience too lazy to fact-check.
That isn’t exposing
Continuously, at the core of every important societal moment, is an immoral media that sows division.
They used to hold truth to power.
Their main focus now, however, is to manufacture hate so they can shape the fallout. https://t.co/rfXZ7GOgiY
A reminder that total consumer electricity costs are (1) the cost to make it and (2) the cost to transmit and distribute it.
The cost of making electricity keeps falling but the overall costs keep rising because of (2).
If you would like to get off this hamster wheel go to https://t.co/IX3GfFxFAu
3) The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision published September 9, 2025 revealed that from April 2024 to March 2025 nonfarm employment is now estimated to be 911,000 jobs fewer than previously reported. While benchmark revisions are a standard annual
2) @adcock_brett announced that Figure just closed a $1 billion Series C at a $39 billion post-money valuation, led by Parkway Venture Capital with participation from Brookfield, NVIDIA, Intel, LG, Salesforce, T-Mobile, and others. This is a significant jump from its February
3) The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision published September 9, 2025 revealed that from April 2024 to March 2025 nonfarm employment is now estimated to be 911,000 jobs fewer than previously reported. While benchmark revisions are a standard annual
What I Read This Week...
1) Oracle entered their largest deals in its history with OpenAI and TikTok.
First, Oracle has locked in a $300 billion, five-year cloud infrastructure deal with OpenAI. This deal starts in 2027 as part of the previously announced Project Stargate data
2) @adcock_brett announced that Figure just closed a $1 billion Series C at a $39 billion post-money valuation, led by Parkway Venture Capital with participation from Brookfield, NVIDIA, Intel, LG, Salesforce, T-Mobile, and others. This is a significant jump from its February
What I Read This Week...
1) Oracle entered their largest deals in its history with OpenAI and TikTok.
First, Oracle has locked in a $300 billion, five-year cloud infrastructure deal with OpenAI. This deal starts in 2027 as part of the previously announced Project Stargate data
Tesla is proposing a deal that could give Elon Musk $2 trillion in wealth, more than the bottom 59% of Americans combined.
Does anybody in America think this is sane? https://t.co/HxQyDMAgxF
Your rhetoric is so corrosive because you sneakily never use words like “earn” or “reward”. Instead you always favor helplessness words like “give”.
In everything you say, it’s clear you hate personal agency - it is always about the invisible hand of big brother coming to the https://t.co/ECkA5ClkMw
I think this video was 2013 or thereabouts.
around this same time i became convinced that everyone should have 1% of their net worth in bitcoin. essentially, my logic was that bitcoin could be good tail risk insurance against a major financial blowup as everything became https://t.co/DoIxzz7HBn
@chamath Only saw it once, but I was at a loss for words. Hard not to think about all the discussions that happened in that office and the decisions that shaped history.
President Trump in the Oval with the Besties
(0:00) POTUS shows the Besties around the upgraded Oval Office
(7:10) Rose Garden Club and White House Ballroom
(11:32) Winning AI, power generation, re-shoring manufacturing, tariffs, and more
*Recorded September 4th, 2025 https://t.co/GyYFl7uD1v
It's incredibly intimidating to walk into the Oval Office.
The first time I did it, I was really nervous. I didn't say much, I was very pensive. In part, it was because despite hearing about it on the news or seeing it on TV or replicas in the movies, none of it really does https://t.co/7cYbHFadXE
The College Crisis: Heads of Dartmouth and Berkeley Debate the Decline of US Universities
(0:00) Introducing Dartmouth President Sian Beilock and Berkeley Chancellor Rich Lyons
(1:14) The student loan burden
(8:03) DEI at US universities
(13:56) Administrative bloat
(16:12) https://t.co/2KgiFU10Id
Ok, I’ve watched 40 Charlie Kirk videos at this point… none of them were outrageous.
His opinions were the exact same as the Catholics I grew up with (and was one)
I disagree with many of those traditional beliefs, but none are shocking… in fact, they’re extremely
Jason sets a really good example here.
Go to the source material and hear it for yourself.
There are thousands of hours of Charlie Kirk on YouTube and X speaking on all manner of topics. Through it, you can understand who Charlie was from his own words versus through some https://t.co/dNKU1HP7Q7
🚨 TULSI: “James Clapper was an intelligence community leader … before our country went to war with Iraq … Dick Cheney was telling the intelligence community … to come up with … the narrative for us to go to war … We created something that wasn't there.” https://t.co/D5QUIdTpFe
@chamath Chamath, i agree with you on a lot of points. But im struggling to understand why people that have worked their whole life and paid into ssn with the knowledge that this is their retirement do not deserve it. Its politicians that stole from this, not the hard working people.
@dczumble I am not saying they don’t deserve to get out what they paid in.
I’m observing that if retirees’ incomes are greater than the income of the people paying into it, and you add in the fact that the “old” will exceed the “young” because of our birth rate, it’s a recipe for
If this trend doesn’t improve, it will pit the “old” versus the “young” across the West.
It’s not sustainable for young people to pay into an entitlement system so older folks can live a better life than they can ever expect.
This may be the spark that drives the entitlement https://t.co/lmtKJIEh6N
(Warning: long rant)
My liberal friends are completely oblivious about how radicalizing the last week has been for tens of millions of normal Americans. Zero clue.
I’m not talking about people who are “online”; I mean regular, everyday Americans. “Normies.” People who scroll https://t.co/NeCxHqrFXi
Important read…
“And they blame you. Because, even if you’re just a center-of-the-road liberal, you lacked the courage to police your own ranks. You let modern-day Maoist red guards run loose across every facet of society, and what started with social-media struggle sessions https://t.co/pH3ustj1OA
🚨 "WOW": Wholesale inflation FELL in August — smashing economists' expectations yet again and proving that President Trump's tariffs are having little effect on prices.
"Boy, I'm surprised — real progress here! 2.6% on year-over-year headline. We were expecting 3.3%!" https://t.co/x6ksNW82Vm
Tariffs don’t create inflation.
Our “experts” were wrong again.
Having a PhD in economics doesn’t make you smarter or more likely to predict the future - in fact, these days, it turns out you’re more likely to be a contra indicator! https://t.co/b72jzmaFvL
A ten strike law preventing people from leaving prison after that many violent crime convictions would reduce period violent crime by 20%
Five strikes would cut violent crime by 40%
Three strikes would halve violent crime
Two strikes would remove ~two-thirds of violent crime https://t.co/mwaUNeQhZQ
A two strike law would eliminate 2/3rds of violent crime!
Cashless bail is societal suicide. It’s allowing the worst kind of person to live amongst honest people and destroy their communities and lives. https://t.co/cBqPk8H4Rr
Another inspiring day of amazing speakers and important topics at the @allinsummit. A conference like no other I’ve ever attended, uniquely focused on massive challenges and solutions for people, businesses, the US, and humanity.
Well done @Jason @friedberg @DavidSacks https://t.co/X6oQm3hjSS
@DavidSacks lol. Even they were shocked and said essentially as much. “We tried to write a hit piece but were forced to admit Sacks is doing a good job and are now forced to report the facts.”
.@POTUS is right.
We’re now firmly behind the curve and in the “too late” part of the cycle. Further, it’s not really clear The Fed has a plan beyond an initial cut.
We need to move to a system that relies more heavily on real time data, published transparently. https://t.co/Q1FcZZftC3
The University of Waterloo (@UWaterloo) is hiring a tenured professor of mathematics… no male mathematicians allowed to apply
“eligible candidates are required to identify as a woman or gender equity-seeking (defined as transgender, gender-fluid, nonbinary and/or Two-Spirit).” https://t.co/8jrQYToMaI
.@UWaterloo what is this?!?!
When did gender become a prerequisite to know math??
I don’t think this will make the Math Department better. It will make it worse. And the students will suffer. https://t.co/mfwXB8imzP
The 8090 team is bringing Software Factory to @UWaterloo this week.
More than 100 students are already signed up.
Come experience it first hand at our Employer Information Session:
- Meet our engineering team
- Get hands-on with Software Factory and see how we use it
Now can we admit it?
The Fed is woefully ill-equipped to set monetary policy in an economy as dynamic and complicated as the US in 2025.
Add in their reliance on useless and wrong data and it’s a recipe for disaster. https://t.co/nelFJBRkr0
The future of @WWE TV has had one constant over the years: change.
Had a blast with @DavidSacks, @chamath, @Jason & @friedberg earlier today and we didn’t even break a table…make sure to subscribe to @theallinpod to hear the full conversation. #allinsummit https://t.co/WMhsdCtGT1
@TripleH @WWE @DavidSacks @Jason @friedberg @theallinpod Thank you for what you, and wrestling, gave to my dad and I…one of my most positive memories growing up.
Tax Equity 2.0
The hyperscalers who are building huge AI data centers should create massive tax equity funds to deploy as much alternative energy for homeowners as possible in the regions they are building DCs:
1) keep energy costs of consumers down so there isn’t a backlash
Huge, huge SpaceX transaction
SpaceX is buying EchoStar’s AWS-4, H-block, MSS spectrum licenses for:
- $17B ($8.5B cash + $8.5B stock at $400B valuation)
- $2B of interest payment help
The spectrum is super important for Starlink DTC as it reduces reliance on mobile carriers https://t.co/ngIgHltvHE
Daily reminder that if we want AI abundance tomorrow, we need unlimited power generation TODAY:
Coal
Nat gas
Solar
Every other form of generation is some combination of too far out, too complicated or too expensive.
“I think we need to figure out a way, and this is where congress should get their act together, and pass an incentive or a requirement for certain parts of the critical economic infrastructure of America to report their data in an anonymized way into a broad set of blockchains.”
“So a 25 basis point cut to a $32,000,000,000,000 economy is not a strategy. And I think that the reason they don't know what to do exactly is because they have extremely faulty data.”
“As a byproduct, we're reallocating tens of... Maybe hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue. And so the judge said the most severe remedies aren't necessary because the free market is doing this job.”
The Fed has been seriously wrong in setting interest rate policy in the past. The most egregious example was going into the GFC - they completely blew the jobs picture, stayed pat and then had to scramble.
Here we are again.
The BLS’ data collection is too sterile and slow https://t.co/yjCPK67nt3
BIG TECH COMPANIES LIKE AMAZON, MICROSOFT, META, ORACLE, SALESFORCE, AND INTEL HAVE CUT THOUSANDS OF JOBS IN 2025. SO FAR, OVER 100,000 TECH WORKERS HAVE LOST THEIR JOBS THIS YEAR AS COMPANIES TRY TO SAVE MONEY AND SHIFT TOWARD AI AND AUTOMATION.
🚨POD UP!
-- inside the white house tech dinner
-- tariffs heading to supreme court
-- weak jobs report
-- state of the economy
-- google's favorable antitrust ruling
(0:00) bestie intros
(0:52) behind the scenes of the white house tech dinner!
(28:39) tariff showdown https://t.co/aEG8k6Fodn
At some point in the near future, the largest power utility in America will be a company that a) has sold 10Ms of households the ability to generate their own electricity and b) uses an app and sensors to tie them all together as a distributed power utility.
@chamath @ganwani What if we gave those tax benefits directly to people and removed the profit the leasing companies are attempting to make? Wouldn't that be even cheaper and therefore better for folks based on the logic you've laid out?
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“Texas, Pennsylvania and now Ohio.
This is a powder keg and has the potential to unwind 200-300 basis points of annual GDP if it metastasizes.
How did it get this bad?
The collective leadership of frontier AI has failed miserably in doing the basics:
1. Paint a positive https://t.co/6Uu1IlAtSS”
“The insurance industry has priced the AI risk.
Carriers went to state regulators this year asking to exclude AI-related damages from ordinary general liability policies. Regulators approved more than 80% of those requests, and the standard forms behind roughly 82% of”
“Were the polls actually completely off or did a bunch of mainstream media decide to lie and try to push Wisconsin towards socialism?
Seems like it failed regardless. https://t.co/ub9hmPXdNi”
“Power is THE binding constraint.
Data centers are being shut down, GPUs are sold out, models are being commoditized and spot rates are rising all leads to power being critical. Not fanciful plans for power, future forecasts of BTM or distributed batteries blah blah blah but https://t.co/h0zPeqXtcO”
“The resolution of this trillion dollar bet will happen before EOY 2026.
Stakes are enormous on the outcome.
Path1: Markets price the Ant IPO and public valuation answers this question.
Path2: Harness + Open Model math becomes more precise and well known. It shows material https://t.co/2SgB4KY43S”
“I heard second hand (so ymmv) that SALP’s Anthropic position was marketed but went unsold.
Is this true?
Why, if accurate, is no one reporting why nobody bought the private Anthropic portion SALP tried to sell?
What does smart, public money think of valuation?
Is the below https://t.co/TxfXErosR7”
“As of today, let’s assume 99% of all code written on the internet is still human written and 1% is agentic.
That means 99% of code is sloppy and error ridden. Humans make errors that agents don’t.
As agentic code replaces human code, both the error rates and security https://t.co/mZ2Aa0d1ZS”
“Infosys cut its revenue forecast this week.
The reason it gave is that enterprises are moving their budgets out of outsourced hours and into AI they can control.
The outsourcing model was built on billing by the hour, which only grows when the work stays slow and manual. So”
“Every large IT transformation program starts with a seemingly defensible choice.
You pick a firm nobody can criticize you for picking, to help you transform.
That made sense when the key question was whether anyone could build the thing at all. But AI changes this.
The”
“As I mentioned in mid May on @theallinpod, the bottom was in in SaaS.
Stock is up 41% since…
Their financial results keep delivering and now valuations will snap back in turn.
Models and harnesses will need tight integration with systems of record to deliver the next phase https://t.co/EbEvLApG7q”
“What is one chart that represents non trivial danger to the status quo?
This graph is top of mind for me. People will undoubtedly underestimate the compounding of quantum bits from here.
The downstream impact to quantum insecure cryptographic methods, however, cannot be https://t.co/urYBzqh6fp”
“We know from the desktop and Internet eras that the economics started similarly and then flipped - the greatest margins were ultimately from those closest to the end user.
The question is not if this will happen again in AI but when. https://t.co/O8wFcJ6Dj1”
“Interesting development.
The latest models are also the most expensive.
One can see a long J curve building, then, to get to positive ROI for these models if folks don’t want to pay for the latest/greatest.
On top of that, if most enterprises are realizing that previous https://t.co/ANKAC2zGm1”
“@JackGavigan @dnapway You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
The people that make the things you use are allowed to be motivated however they are motivated.
If you don’t like their motivations, use a different product. There is no monopoly on your time such that this isn’t possible.
Vote with”
“@Cernovich I don’t think he outsourced his thinking. He outsourced his penmanship.
I’d look through the prose and focus on the message. He’s a 🐐 for a reason and this isn’t an IG reel.”
“@Icanonlyraz Moving from pen and paper to a typewriter only accelerated the differentiation between good and bad writers not diminish it. Helps get you to your desired destination faster.
Slop is still slop.
Over time, there will be fewer repetitive AI flourishes that stand out. And your”
“@Jason This is a dumb new form of virtue signaling.
Do you disclose every article you’ve ever read that gives you an opinion when you spout off on X? No.
This is how AI also works. He might as well disclaim the entire internet and every written word.
If he puts his name behind it,”
“If Stan Druckenmiller isn’t embarrassed to be a meat proxy, you shouldn’t be either.
It’s like after matches was invented, still celebrating the arduous time to rub two sticks together.
Dumb. https://t.co/UB319Irqcd”
“AI capex is projected to reach $765B in 2026, passing oil and gas for the first time. Compute is now getting its first futures contract. Here is what has to be true for it to work… https://t.co/STpPLN8wol”
“@jacobpeake wow. this is super super good. thank you for writing this.
one thought:
what happens when agents start writing the kernels and new model architectures keep appearing?
I think a lot of today’s chips become meh. they were designed by humans for humans.
brute-force approaches”
“It’s not in there yet.
All that has happened thus far is the breathless burning of tokens and prematurely declared winners and losers.
The graph below explains better than any other that we are still in the first inning and the final shape of AI is still very much TBD. https://t.co/nzRWcbgAqi”
“@JTLonsdale Not saying there aren’t exceptions but I’m talking about the existing, largest companies. Those that comprise the Global 2000. They are the source of most of these tokens and revenues to the labs. Their earnings growth has literally zero to do with AI or anything remotely close…”
“Step 1. Everyone experiments.
Step 2. The leaders start commoditizing features and make them much better for themselves.
Step 3. Turn the crank on costs and make each capability high margin.
As goes Databricks, others will follow. As a result, token consumption will explode https://t.co/8uOYCqwCLi”
“@RachaelRad This is now how electricity prices work.
By building very expensive nuclear reactors and taking other users of electricity off the grid, their prices will go up even more.”
“If an alien visited earth and asked you: “Show me one chart that sits upstream of everything your species has accomplished or will ever accomplish.”
What would you show them?
I would show them the chart below.
From my perspective, as long as we keep this chart going, we will https://t.co/yxMzEa5Byb”
“Zuck never mentions it because he knows the great engineers want to work at a space/search/ai company…
Not an advertising company. https://t.co/ELf6QSgIFk”
“I’m very excited to see the Ant and OAI S-1s.
Here are some of the questions I am very interested in:
1. What is the best guess of the steady state number of tokens to accomplish a fixed benchmark task that actually represents real work in a company.
To understand what is https://t.co/xesW9MGG3c”
“@DavidSpicer Really well summarized. Thank you.
The key step is that after an initial pass to generate a “rule book” one needs a way to do human review so that you can create a snapshot of today’s rules/actions. At that point, the agents can do drift detection and keep things in synch in”
“On Control Planes…
Four companies shipped an enterprise AI control plane in the last two weeks. They all do one thing well which is govern which model answers a request and what it costs. That’s a real problem and I’m glad it’s getting solved.
But what none of them capture is”
“50 to 80% of a software system's lifetime cost arrives after launch.
At launch, a system integrator's delivery team rolls off to the next engagement, so the people who made design decisions are gone before the expensive years begin, and the support begins.
Ask who takes the”
“@draecomino It doesn’t work in all cases as has been shown. It’s “reasonable best efforts” at best. For big companies this will be a non starter as they learn more.”
“This is a really good development.
As model costs converge, the next likely step will be the use of independent 3rd party harnesses/control planes (8090 Software Factory, Palantir, Nous’ Hermes etc).
A 3rd party harness + the ability to use any model quasi-interchangeably is https://t.co/GtB9aXKN3d”
“Tesla is going all in on nuclear. Actually it’s going all in on solar but they are the same thing - the sun is a nuclear reactor, just farther away. https://t.co/XuuRCJ1oRS”
“The market is reducing itself to:
Technology people who knows how this stuff works
Vs
Everyone else who has no idea and so gets short because it violates their non-technology priors https://t.co/H4phQiYKDH”
“@shaunmmaguire @aaronburnett I don’t think so. People will view this chart and measure neoclouds on energized compute and demand them to be more aggressive. Otherwise they will tank their stocks.”
“And if reports are accurate, with zero distillation to jumpstart it.
Thus proving many things that are more value destructive than value accreting… https://t.co/4FQqd6xZXB”
“Tactical Game Theory: Meta Scorched Earth
This should have been Meta’s play two years ago. That said, they are in an even better position to do it now considering the power and compute constraints that are emerging. https://t.co/AIPM6wGzT0”
“In a world of agents + harness + application, bottoms up will turn out to be the worst strategic GTM decision of the past decade.
Over the next few years, AI will stamp out clone after clone of various bottoms up tools, meanwhile this same tool sprawl will be viewed as part of”
“Overwhelmingly most VCs are terrible practitioners of the craft.
“This is best demonstrated by the paucity of DPI that has been generated by most recent fund vintages. In each of the 2019 and 2020 vintages, for instance, median DPIs are still barely over zero, and less than”
“@PeterJ_Walker This is a stupid conversation because you’re highlighting the wrong metric.
Only thing that matters is DPI.
TVPI is bullshit. See today’s Airtable transaction as a reminder.”
“The AI Singularity
The argument goes like this:
1. Humans build an AGI.
2. The AGI becomes good at AI research.
3. It designs a smarter AI.
4. That smarter AI designs an even smarter AI.
5. The cycle repeats faster and faster.
Looking at the results and capabilities from the”
“This is accurate.
That said, we are currently working through a rigorous experiment testing closed and open models with and without Software Factory.
Early data is super fascinating and backs up the experiment below. https://t.co/vqWV7ISaeX”
“Guess this commodity.
Why do I say it’s a commodity? Because the chart shows many providers accomplishing very similar things all at the same time. https://t.co/r0c1bTylIP”
“@seagoat73 Hyperscalers want 1000 models to exist and thrive. They will make money from various services around models (like KYC) not just serving tokens energized land will always be valuable.”
“In many ways, Anthropic’s funding mechanics - claims made, FUD, post money valuations have dictated Dario’s position more than anything else. Even if he really believed this. https://t.co/tbBmvnCO0x”
“@thetimmorgan All clouds are very infantile relative to the hyperscalers. Doesn’t mean they can’t win over time but the road will be bumpy. Most neoclouds are mostly just directional bets on LPS rn. No real tech and uptime to speak of…”
“Here is my AI investing guide.
Sitting here August 2026, my current best thoughts are as follows:
1. LPS (Land Power Shell) is still the most obvious and fastest path to cash on cash returns. Lots of value can be assembled and traded quickly at this layer. And as data centers https://t.co/QSZgT0Gv0S”
“@Vvikramai I don’t think teams make these decisions explicitly. It just sort of develops naturally. There is a ton of slop cannon behavior that hasn’t gotten sorted out yet.”
“Zuck’s essay and vision is a really good one.
“The defining question of our age isn’t whether superintelligence will exist, but who will have access to it. Will it be centralized and restricted to a few institutions, or will it be a tool that empowers everyone?”
“I don’t”
enterpriseenterprise·posts only·
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“As I mentioned in mid May on @theallinpod, the bottom was in in SaaS.
Stock is up 41% since…
Their financial results keep delivering and now valuations will snap back in turn.
Models and harnesses will need tight integration with systems of record to deliver the next phase https://t.co/EbEvLApG7q”
“@JTLonsdale Not saying there aren’t exceptions but I’m talking about the existing, largest companies. Those that comprise the Global 2000. They are the source of most of these tokens and revenues to the labs. Their earnings growth has literally zero to do with AI or anything remotely close…”
“On Control Planes…
Four companies shipped an enterprise AI control plane in the last two weeks. They all do one thing well which is govern which model answers a request and what it costs. That’s a real problem and I’m glad it’s getting solved.
But what none of them capture is”
“Build-vs-Buy Math is Now Squarely in Build
For the entirety of the SaaS wave, it was always cheaper and faster to buy software vs build what you needed.
But the buying cycle continues to get more complicated.
Gartner says the buying group for a complex enterprise software”
“This is a really good development.
As model costs converge, the next likely step will be the use of independent 3rd party harnesses/control planes (8090 Software Factory, Palantir, Nous’ Hermes etc).
A 3rd party harness + the ability to use any model quasi-interchangeably is https://t.co/GtB9aXKN3d”
“In a world of agents + harness + application, bottoms up will turn out to be the worst strategic GTM decision of the past decade.
Over the next few years, AI will stamp out clone after clone of various bottoms up tools, meanwhile this same tool sprawl will be viewed as part of”
“The Build vs Buy Math Just Flipped
For thirty years a software renewal was a simple question of renew or shop for a cheaper seat, because building the thing yourself was never realistic.
That has changed.
Gartner now puts roughly a fifth of enterprise SaaS spend, around”
“Every large IT transformation program starts with a seemingly defensible choice.
You pick a firm nobody can criticize you for picking, to help you transform.
That made sense when the key question was whether anyone could build the thing at all. But AI changes this.
The”
“@draecomino It doesn’t work in all cases as has been shown. It’s “reasonable best efforts” at best. For big companies this will be a non starter as they learn more.”
“Texas, Pennsylvania and now Ohio.
This is a powder keg and has the potential to unwind 200-300 basis points of annual GDP if it metastasizes.
How did it get this bad?
The collective leadership of frontier AI has failed miserably in doing the basics:
1. Paint a positive https://t.co/6Uu1IlAtSS”
anthropicanthropic·posts only·
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“Interesting development.
The latest models are also the most expensive.
One can see a long J curve building, then, to get to positive ROI for these models if folks don’t want to pay for the latest/greatest.
On top of that, if most enterprises are realizing that previous https://t.co/ANKAC2zGm1”
“Here is where the money you pay Anthropic is going. Hope you agree!!
via Politico:
“ANTHROPIC’S ANTI-AI BLITZ: The political war over AI is spilling deeper into the midterms — with one of the industry’s biggest players spending millions to warn voters about the technology it”
“The resolution of this trillion dollar bet will happen before EOY 2026.
Stakes are enormous on the outcome.
Path1: Markets price the Ant IPO and public valuation answers this question.
Path2: Harness + Open Model math becomes more precise and well known. It shows material https://t.co/2SgB4KY43S”
“This is accurate.
That said, we are currently working through a rigorous experiment testing closed and open models with and without Software Factory.
Early data is super fascinating and backs up the experiment below. https://t.co/vqWV7ISaeX”
“In many ways, Anthropic’s funding mechanics - claims made, FUD, post money valuations have dictated Dario’s position more than anything else. Even if he really believed this. https://t.co/tbBmvnCO0x”
“I heard second hand (so ymmv) that SALP’s Anthropic position was marketed but went unsold.
Is this true?
Why, if accurate, is no one reporting why nobody bought the private Anthropic portion SALP tried to sell?
What does smart, public money think of valuation?
Is the below https://t.co/TxfXErosR7”
“As of today, let’s assume 99% of all code written on the internet is still human written and 1% is agentic.
That means 99% of code is sloppy and error ridden. Humans make errors that agents don’t.
As agentic code replaces human code, both the error rates and security https://t.co/mZ2Aa0d1ZS”
“I’m very excited to see the Ant and OAI S-1s.
Here are some of the questions I am very interested in:
1. What is the best guess of the steady state number of tokens to accomplish a fixed benchmark task that actually represents real work in a company.
To understand what is https://t.co/xesW9MGG3c”
softwaresoftware·posts only·
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“@DavidSpicer Really well summarized. Thank you.
The key step is that after an initial pass to generate a “rule book” one needs a way to do human review so that you can create a snapshot of today’s rules/actions. At that point, the agents can do drift detection and keep things in synch in”
“@theslowtell We don’t see this. There are many decisions that had reasonable starting points but have now simply drifted from today’s operational reality.
It’s now about closing the gap of where things started and what the business actually needs today.”
“@DeepInsightLabs Good question.
The usual failures happen because documentation is usually a separate act from building and often optional. Someone ships something new or a change, then maybe writes it down but the two start to drift apart from day one.
Tribal knowledge is then what fills the”
“Build-vs-Buy Math is Now Squarely in Build
For the entirety of the SaaS wave, it was always cheaper and faster to buy software vs build what you needed.
But the buying cycle continues to get more complicated.
Gartner says the buying group for a complex enterprise software”
“50 to 80% of a software system's lifetime cost arrives after launch.
At launch, a system integrator's delivery team rolls off to the next engagement, so the people who made design decisions are gone before the expensive years begin, and the support begins.
Ask who takes the”
“This is a really good development.
As model costs converge, the next likely step will be the use of independent 3rd party harnesses/control planes (8090 Software Factory, Palantir, Nous’ Hermes etc).
A 3rd party harness + the ability to use any model quasi-interchangeably is https://t.co/GtB9aXKN3d”
“Retiring spreadsheets in favor of software…
8090 built the system that now runs part and model numbering inside BISSELL’s product development organization.
The rules that a handful of expert reviewers once enforced by hand are now written into software, requests that follow https://t.co/TuQWZAiRco”
“The Build vs Buy Math Just Flipped
For thirty years a software renewal was a simple question of renew or shop for a cheaper seat, because building the thing yourself was never realistic.
That has changed.
Gartner now puts roughly a fifth of enterprise SaaS spend, around”
“@JackGavigan @dnapway You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
The people that make the things you use are allowed to be motivated however they are motivated.
If you don’t like their motivations, use a different product. There is no monopoly on your time such that this isn’t possible.
Vote with”
regulationregulation·posts only·
6 posts
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“What is a model?
At a bank, it is the math behind almost every decision: who gets a loan, how much capital to hold, which transactions look like fraud etc etc etc.
In April, the Fed, OCC and FDIC sunsetted the guidance banks have used since 2011 to check that math. The new”
“We’ve been taught about the deregulation wave of the 80s and 90s but there really wasn’t a simplification of the rules back then. The rules just kept increasing unabated.
Rules serve only one customer - the incumbent who writes them - directly or through their proxy.
Less https://t.co/GJMrzYnbfa”
“The insurance industry has priced the AI risk.
Carriers went to state regulators this year asking to exclude AI-related damages from ordinary general liability policies. Regulators approved more than 80% of those requests, and the standard forms behind roughly 82% of”
“In three days, on August 2, the EU's AI Office can start fining companies up to 3 percent of global revenue, or 15 million euros, for AI systems they cannot explain.
The obligations can reach back to violations from August of last year.
Most CEOs I talk to are reading that as”
mathmath·posts only·
5 posts
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0 of 0 appearances
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“What is a model?
At a bank, it is the math behind almost every decision: who gets a loan, how much capital to hold, which transactions look like fraud etc etc etc.
In April, the Fed, OCC and FDIC sunsetted the guidance banks have used since 2011 to check that math. The new”
“Build-vs-Buy Math is Now Squarely in Build
For the entirety of the SaaS wave, it was always cheaper and faster to buy software vs build what you needed.
But the buying cycle continues to get more complicated.
Gartner says the buying group for a complex enterprise software”
“The Build vs Buy Math Just Flipped
For thirty years a software renewal was a simple question of renew or shop for a cheaper seat, because building the thing yourself was never realistic.
That has changed.
Gartner now puts roughly a fifth of enterprise SaaS spend, around”
“The resolution of this trillion dollar bet will happen before EOY 2026.
Stakes are enormous on the outcome.
Path1: Markets price the Ant IPO and public valuation answers this question.
Path2: Harness + Open Model math becomes more precise and well known. It shows material https://t.co/2SgB4KY43S”
arrarr·posts only·
4 posts
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0 of 0 appearances
new
post
“As I mentioned in mid May on @theallinpod, the bottom was in in SaaS.
Stock is up 41% since…
Their financial results keep delivering and now valuations will snap back in turn.
Models and harnesses will need tight integration with systems of record to deliver the next phase https://t.co/EbEvLApG7q”
