Palihapitiya endorses Zuck's essay on whether superintelligence will be centralized or empower everyone
“Zuck’s essay and vision is a really good one. “The defining question of our age isn’t whether superintelligence will exist, but who will have access to it. Will it be centralized and restricted to a few institutions, or will it be a tool that empowers everyone?” “I don’t”
Palihapitiya warns all clouds are infantile versus hyperscalers, most neoclouds just directional LPS bets without real tech
“@thetimmorgan All clouds are very infantile relative to the hyperscalers. Doesn’t mean they can’t win over time but the road will be bumpy. Most neoclouds are mostly just directional bets on LPS rn. No real tech and uptime to speak of…”
Palihapitiya expects hyperscalers to monetize services like KYC around models not tokens, holding 6GW through 2029
“@seagoat73 Hyperscalers want 1000 models to exist and thrive. They will make money from various services around models (like KYC) not just serving tokens energized land will always be valuable.”
Palihapitiya warns all clouds are infantile versus hyperscalers, most neoclouds just directional LPS bets without real tech
“@thetimmorgan All clouds are very infantile relative to the hyperscalers. Doesn’t mean they can’t win over time but the road will be bumpy. Most neoclouds are mostly just directional bets on LPS rn. No real tech and uptime to speak of…”
Palihapitiya says opposite of Roose, model capability gains fully priced in and cost going to zero
“@kevinroose Opposite. It’s all priced in. The cost is going to zero. All powers will be unlocked.”
Palihapitiya says opposite of Roose, model capability gains fully priced in and cost going to zero
“@kevinroose Opposite. It’s all priced in. The cost is going to zero. All powers will be unlocked.”
Palihapitiya dismisses TVPI as bullshit metric, says only DPI matters citing Airtable transaction
“@PeterJ_Walker This is a stupid conversation because you’re highlighting the wrong metric. Only thing that matters is DPI. TVPI is bullshit. See today’s Airtable transaction as a reminder.”
Palihapitiya says VC returns are horrible, funds should shut down
“@daveclark85 @PeterJ_Walker These returns are horrible. Shut the funds down. 🤮”
Palihapitiya predicts bottoms-up GTM will be worst strategic decision of past decade as AI stamps out tools
“In a world of agents + harness + application, bottoms up will turn out to be the worst strategic GTM decision of the past decade. Over the next few years, AI will stamp out clone after clone of various bottoms up tools, meanwhile this same tool sprawl will be viewed as part of”
Palihapitiya predicts bottoms-up GTM will be worst strategic decision of past decade as AI stamps out tools
“In a world of agents + harness + application, bottoms up will turn out to be the worst strategic GTM decision of the past decade. Over the next few years, AI will stamp out clone after clone of various bottoms up tools, meanwhile this same tool sprawl will be viewed as part of”
Palihapitiya argues SpaceX chart shows neoclouds will be measured on energized compute or tank
“@shaunmmaguire @aaronburnett I don’t think so. People will view this chart and measure neoclouds on energized compute and demand them to be more aggressive. Otherwise they will tank their stocks.”
Palihapitiya says harness should give contextual access without model dependency to preserve memory
“@dragosroua If the harness isn’t dependent on a specific model and can give access to it contextually, then yes.”
Palihapitiya says third-party harness plus model interchangeability changes enterprise risk profile
“This is a really good development. As model costs converge, the next likely step will be the use of independent 3rd party harnesses/control planes (8090 Software Factory, Palantir, Nous’ Hermes etc). A 3rd party harness + the ability to use any model quasi-interchangeably is https://t.co/GtB9aXKN3d”
Palihapitiya says major lab zero data retention insufficient for large enterprises
“@draecomino It doesn’t work in all cases as has been shown. It’s “reasonable best efforts” at best. For big companies this will be a non starter as they learn more.”
Palihapitiya says third-party harness plus model interchangeability changes enterprise risk profile
“This is a really good development. As model costs converge, the next likely step will be the use of independent 3rd party harnesses/control planes (8090 Software Factory, Palantir, Nous’ Hermes etc). A 3rd party harness + the ability to use any model quasi-interchangeably is https://t.co/GtB9aXKN3d”
Palihapitiya says major lab zero data retention insufficient for large enterprises
“@draecomino It doesn’t work in all cases as has been shown. It’s “reasonable best efforts” at best. For big companies this will be a non starter as they learn more.”
Palihapitiya explains Software Factory generates rule book then does drift detection after human review
“@DavidSpicer Really well summarized. Thank you. The key step is that after an initial pass to generate a “rule book” one needs a way to do human review so that you can create a snapshot of today’s rules/actions. At that point, the agents can do drift detection and keep things in synch in”
Palihapitiya would show alien energy chart as source of all human accomplishment
“If an alien visited earth and asked you: “Show me one chart that sits upstream of everything your species has accomplished or will ever accomplish.” What would you show them? I would show them the chart below. From my perspective, as long as we keep this chart going, we will https://t.co/yxMzEa5Byb”
Palihapitiya asks what nuclear plants will power if people prefer them to data centers
“Lol But what will the nuclear plants power then?! https://t.co/VOCyYhAA3h”
Palihapitiya warns data center backlash in Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio risks 200-300 basis points of GDP
“Texas, Pennsylvania and now Ohio. This is a powder keg and has the potential to unwind 200-300 basis points of annual GDP if it metastasizes. How did it get this bad? The collective leadership of frontier AI has failed miserably in doing the basics: 1. Paint a positive https://t.co/6Uu1IlAtSS”
Palihapitiya predicts leaders will commoditize features then drive token consumption as Databricks does
“Step 1. Everyone experiments. Step 2. The leaders start commoditizing features and make them much better for themselves. Step 3. Turn the crank on costs and make each capability high margin. As goes Databricks, others will follow. As a result, token consumption will explode https://t.co/8uOYCqwCLi”
Palihapitiya warns Claude's CLAUDE.md-only approach will always cause split brain problems
“@tobi unless they change it it will always lead to split brain...”
Palihapitiya compares AI to typewriter, says it accelerates differentiation between good and bad writers
“@Icanonlyraz Moving from pen and paper to a typewriter only accelerated the differentiation between good and bad writers not diminish it. Helps get you to your desired destination faster. Slop is still slop. Over time, there will be fewer repetitive AI flourishes that stand out. And your”
Palihapitiya compares AI to typewriter, says it accelerates differentiation between good and bad writers
“@Icanonlyraz Moving from pen and paper to a typewriter only accelerated the differentiation between good and bad writers not diminish it. Helps get you to your desired destination faster. Slop is still slop. Over time, there will be fewer repetitive AI flourishes that stand out. And your”
Palihapitiya argues greatest AI margins will eventually flow to those closest to end users
“We know from the desktop and Internet eras that the economics started similarly and then flipped - the greatest margins were ultimately from those closest to the end user. The question is not if this will happen again in AI but when. https://t.co/O8wFcJ6Dj1”
Palihapitiya argues greatest AI margins will eventually flow to those closest to end users
“We know from the desktop and Internet eras that the economics started similarly and then flipped - the greatest margins were ultimately from those closest to the end user. The question is not if this will happen again in AI but when. https://t.co/O8wFcJ6Dj1”
Palihapitiya warns quantum bit growth will impact quantum-insecure cryptographic methods
“What is one chart that represents non trivial danger to the status quo? This graph is top of mind for me. People will undoubtedly underestimate the compounding of quantum bits from here. The downstream impact to quantum insecure cryptographic methods, however, cannot be https://t.co/urYBzqh6fp”
Palihapitiya warns quantum bit growth will impact quantum-insecure cryptographic methods
“What is one chart that represents non trivial danger to the status quo? This graph is top of mind for me. People will undoubtedly underestimate the compounding of quantum bits from here. The downstream impact to quantum insecure cryptographic methods, however, cannot be https://t.co/urYBzqh6fp”