Palihapitiya explains forking open source AI from Moonshot becomes worthless due to version drift.
“Because there's so much investment by Moonshot, that's the company that makes Kimikay two in that example, that you'll have so much drift in one version, your fork will be worthless.”
Palihapitiya says Kimi K 2.5 is a trillion parameter mixture of experts model.
“So this is why it's so important because it was incredibly profound. It's a trillion parameter mixture of expert model.”
Palihapitiya argues open source AI gives sovereignty to companies and especially countries through transparency.
“But open source is important because it's transparent. It gives everybody their own sovereignty, whether you're a company and, frankly, really more importantly, whether you're a country.”
Palihapitiya says Meta profoundly fumbled opportunity to be third leg of AI stool alongside closed and open source.
“I mean, they have completely fumbled it. I don't know the organization well enough, nor do I understand the political dynamics to understand why they failed as miserably as they have. But they've profoundly failed.”
Palihapitiya says countries will build sovereign AI stacks with open source models even if only 95% as good.
“And if the models are 99% as good or 95% as good, there's going to be a claim that some countries make, which is it's just good enough.”
Palihapitiya endorses Zuck's essay on whether superintelligence will be centralized or empower everyone
“Zuck’s essay and vision is a really good one. “The defining question of our age isn’t whether superintelligence will exist, but who will have access to it. Will it be centralized and restricted to a few institutions, or will it be a tool that empowers everyone?” “I don’t”
Palihapitiya claims Anthropic's funding mechanics and FUD drove Dario's position on open source more than belief
“In many ways, Anthropic’s funding mechanics - claims made, FUD, post money valuations have dictated Dario’s position more than anything else. Even if he really believed this. https://t.co/tbBmvnCO0x”
Palihapitiya claims Anthropic's funding mechanics and FUD drove Dario's position on open source more than belief
“In many ways, Anthropic’s funding mechanics - claims made, FUD, post money valuations have dictated Dario’s position more than anything else. Even if he really believed this. https://t.co/tbBmvnCO0x”
Palihapitiya claims modern harness plus open model crushes token consumption while maintaining performance
“A modern harness + open model will crush your token consumption but keep your performance. https://t.co/pcHU8rZY35”
Palihapitiya confirms Claude wrapped in Software Factory is 1.4x cheaper and 1.5x faster, open models 16.4x cheaper
“This is accurate. That said, we are currently working through a rigorous experiment testing closed and open models with and without Software Factory. Early data is super fascinating and backs up the experiment below. https://t.co/vqWV7ISaeX”
Palihapitiya predicts AGI-level capabilities will be matched by open source alternatives within three to four months.
“I also think that these capabilities will be matched or close to matched by a handful of closed source alternatives and open source alternatives probably within the next three or four months.”