Palihapitiya previews upcoming AI efficiency gains that will cut token consumption by 50 to 75 percent for identical tasks.
“What I would tell you is that there are some incredible efficiencies that I think are about to be demonstrated, which effectively cut token consumption by about 50 to 75% for the same task.”
Palihapitiya expects hyperscalers to monetize services like KYC around models not tokens, holding 6GW through 2029
“@seagoat73 Hyperscalers want 1000 models to exist and thrive. They will make money from various services around models (like KYC) not just serving tokens energized land will always be valuable.”
Palihapitiya notes identical prompts produce vastly different token consumption, questions per-token pricing
“Imagine if you priced by the token…hey! Wait a minute!! https://t.co/JPxLEL0yod”
Palihapitiya lists questions for Anthropic and OpenAI S-1s on token efficiency and steady state usage
“I’m very excited to see the Ant and OAI S-1s. Here are some of the questions I am very interested in: 1. What is the best guess of the steady state number of tokens to accomplish a fixed benchmark task that actually represents real work in a company. To understand what is https://t.co/xesW9MGG3c”
Palihapitiya predicts leaders will commoditize features then drive token consumption as Databricks does
“Step 1. Everyone experiments. Step 2. The leaders start commoditizing features and make them much better for themselves. Step 3. Turn the crank on costs and make each capability high margin. As goes Databricks, others will follow. As a result, token consumption will explode https://t.co/8uOYCqwCLi”
Palihapitiya questions where token volume doubling every 11 weeks goes if not to high-value tasks
“Yet, high value tasks don’t seem to be increasing…so where are all these tokens going?? https://t.co/pvlby1K0io”
Palihapitiya questions where token volume doubling every 11 weeks goes if not to high-value tasks
“Yet, high value tasks don’t seem to be increasing…so where are all these tokens going?? https://t.co/pvlby1K0io”
Palihapitiya says Global 2000 earnings growth has zero to do with AI despite token consumption
“@JTLonsdale Not saying there aren’t exceptions but I’m talking about the existing, largest companies. Those that comprise the Global 2000. They are the source of most of these tokens and revenues to the labs. Their earnings growth has literally zero to do with AI or anything remotely close…”
Palihapitiya says Global 2000 earnings growth has zero to do with AI despite token consumption
“@JTLonsdale Not saying there aren’t exceptions but I’m talking about the existing, largest companies. Those that comprise the Global 2000. They are the source of most of these tokens and revenues to the labs. Their earnings growth has literally zero to do with AI or anything remotely close…”
Palihapitiya questions where AI tokens are being consumed given that high-value tasks don't appear to be increasing.
“Yet, high value tasks don’t seem to be increasing…so where are all these tokens going??”
Palihapitiya says AI productivity boom not yet visible, still first inning with shape undetermined
“It’s not in there yet. All that has happened thus far is the breathless burning of tokens and prematurely declared winners and losers. The graph below explains better than any other that we are still in the first inning and the final shape of AI is still very much TBD. https://t.co/nzRWcbgAqi”