Palihapitiya cites Rogo eval showing top frontier models now indistinguishable within three-tenths of a percentage point.
“At the top of the leaderboard, Opus four seven, GPT five five, Sonnet four six appear almost indistinguishable, separated by less than, in this case, you know, three tenths of a percentage point overall.”
Palihapitiya agrees OpenAI and Anthropic cannibalizing customers is natural as models commoditize
“@itsolelehmann I agree and it’s the natural resting place as the models themselves get commoditized.”
Palihapitiya expects hyperscalers to monetize services like KYC around models not tokens, holding 6GW through 2029
“@seagoat73 Hyperscalers want 1000 models to exist and thrive. They will make money from various services around models (like KYC) not just serving tokens energized land will always be valuable.”
Palihapitiya confirms Claude wrapped in Software Factory is 1.4x cheaper and 1.5x faster, open models 16.4x cheaper
“This is accurate. That said, we are currently working through a rigorous experiment testing closed and open models with and without Software Factory. Early data is super fascinating and backs up the experiment below. https://t.co/vqWV7ISaeX”
Palihapitiya says opposite of Roose, model capability gains fully priced in and cost going to zero
“@kevinroose Opposite. It’s all priced in. The cost is going to zero. All powers will be unlocked.”
Palihapitiya says opposite of Roose, model capability gains fully priced in and cost going to zero
“@kevinroose Opposite. It’s all priced in. The cost is going to zero. All powers will be unlocked.”
Palihapitiya argues SpaceX generates $30-50M annual revenue per active megawatt, power is binding constraint
“Power is THE binding constraint. Data centers are being shut down, GPUs are sold out, models are being commoditized and spot rates are rising all leads to power being critical. Not fanciful plans for power, future forecasts of BTM or distributed batteries blah blah blah but https://t.co/h0zPeqXtcO”
Palihapitiya argues SpaceX generates $30-50M annual revenue per active megawatt, power is binding constraint
“Power is THE binding constraint. Data centers are being shut down, GPUs are sold out, models are being commoditized and spot rates are rising all leads to power being critical. Not fanciful plans for power, future forecasts of BTM or distributed batteries blah blah blah but https://t.co/h0zPeqXtcO”
Palihapitiya notes Zuck never mentions advertising because great engineers want space, search or AI company
“Zuck never mentions it because he knows the great engineers want to work at a space/search/ai company… Not an advertising company. https://t.co/ELf6QSgIFk”
Palihapitiya notes Anthropic's Fable model only 11% of revenue, sees long J-curve to positive ROI
“Interesting development. The latest models are also the most expensive. One can see a long J curve building, then, to get to positive ROI for these models if folks don’t want to pay for the latest/greatest. On top of that, if most enterprises are realizing that previous https://t.co/ANKAC2zGm1”
Palihapitiya notes Salesforce stock up 41% since he called SaaS bottom in May on All-In
“As I mentioned in mid May on @theallinpod, the bottom was in in SaaS. Stock is up 41% since… Their financial results keep delivering and now valuations will snap back in turn. Models and harnesses will need tight integration with systems of record to deliver the next phase https://t.co/EbEvLApG7q”
Palihapitiya notes Salesforce stock up 41% since he called SaaS bottom in May on All-In
“As I mentioned in mid May on @theallinpod, the bottom was in in SaaS. Stock is up 41% since… Their financial results keep delivering and now valuations will snap back in turn. Models and harnesses will need tight integration with systems of record to deliver the next phase https://t.co/EbEvLApG7q”