Dearlove argues the UK is Europe's leading intelligence power and led support for Ukraine.
“The UK is Europe's leading intelligence and security power, and of course we also are one of Europe's leading defense powers, and I think you just have to see what's happened in Ukraine and the way that we would have been able, as it were, to lead on the support for the Ukrainians.”
Dearlove predicts Russians are currently offering intelligence services to the West over Ukraine disagreements.
“There will be, for sure, Russians who will be offering their services to the Americans or to other Western nations because they so fundamentally disagree with Russian policy.”
Dearlove argues Brexit gave UK flexibility to lead on Ukraine support without EU defense policy constraints.
“I think the fact that we're not constrained by European community membership, by common foreign and defense policy which the EU tries to promote, made a huge difference because we have much more flexibility.”
Dearlove describes Ukraine as putty in American hands, militarily dependent on support no other nation can replicate.
“Militarily at the moment they are heavily dependent on American support and it can't really be replicated. What they're being given can't be replicated by any other nation.”
Dearlove says US switched off intelligence for eight days, during which Ukraine lost the Kursk salient.
“if you want to force Zelensky to accept a ceasefire, if you switch off the intelligence for eight days I think it was and during those eight days they pretty much lost the Kursk salient so you can see immediately the detrimental effect it had militarily on the Ukrainians.”
Dearlove says chemistry between Trump and Zelensky is terrible and US can force ceasefire by cutting intelligence.
“It's quite clear you know that the chemistry between Trump and Zelensky is terrible. They don't like each other, they don't get on with each other and that's been clear for some time but if you want to force Zelensky to accept a ceasefire, if you switch off the intelligence”
Dearlove states the UK is in a state of grey warfare with Russia over Ukraine targeting critical infrastructure.
“You know as far as the Russians are concerned because of Ukraine we're in a state of grey warfare with them and they are using all sorts of means which are beneath the level of open conflict to cause, well, mayhem in aspects of the West's daily critical infrastructure,”
Dearlove says the UK is in a state of grey warfare with Russia over Ukraine.
“I mean if you just take one player, maybe it's a more clear cut example than one we're talking about which is Russia.”
Dearlove links Trump's eight-day intelligence cutoff to Russian gains at Kharkiv Salient.
“Trump did cut it off briefly at one point for eight days, and that is when the Kharkiv Salient Yeah. Was basically regained by the Russians.”
Dearlove estimates Russian casualties at 1.2 million with over 200,000 fatalities in Ukraine war.
“we reckon the Russian figures now are one point one, 1,200,000. I don't know what the fatalities are within that figure, over two hundred thousand probably, maybe even more than that.”
Dearlove identifies proposed military size limits as a major sticking point in Ukraine peace negotiations.
“the idea that a sovereign nation should agree because of the threat from another nation that its army shouldn't be bigger than a certain size is also of profound difficulty for Ukraine.”
Dearlove questions vague article-five-like guarantees and says only practical guarantee is air cover for Ukraine.
“What the hell does that mean? Article five like security guarantees. I mean, I think the only practical security guarantee personally is a guarantee of air cover”
Dearlove says Russians want a Manchurian candidate in Ukraine who appears loyal but will make concessions.
“what the Russians want is a Manchurian candidate who does not appear to be a Manchurian candidate at all, who looks like a loyal Ukrainian, but after the election, will make the concessions that Zelensky may not have made or probably won't have made already.”
Dearlove estimates Russian casualties at 1.2 million with over 200,000 fatalities in Ukraine war.
“the we reckon the Russian figures now are one point one, 1,200,000. I don't know what the fatalities are within that figure, over two hundred thousand probably, maybe even more than that.”
Dearlove argues air cover is the only practical security guarantee Ukraine would accept.
“I think the only practical security guarantee personally is a guarantee of air cover because the Ukrainians will not accept, I think, boots on the ground and neither will the Russians.”
Dearlove cites Korean DMZ as precedent for Ukraine ceasefire but notes the situation differs.
“There are precedents for this, which is the DMZ between North And South Korea, but that's, you know, an internationally evacuated ban between the two countries,”
Dearlove says policing a Ukraine ceasefire line would require 200,000 to 300,000 troops.
“And the idea that you're gonna have, you know, 30,000 it would take 200 to 300,000 troops to please the ceasefire line. Look.”
Dearlove says Ukraine-Russia ceasefire line is nowhere near the DMZ precedent between North and South Korea.
“Look. There are precedents for this, which is the DMZ between North And South Korea, but that's, you know, an internationally evacuated ban between the two countries, and that's not you know, it's been there for years, but we're nowhere near that situation in terms of doing a deal with Russia over Ukraine.”
Putin would be a drone target for Ukraine if they could determine his exact location quickly enough.
“ he said. But while it's not impossible that someone within Russia may wish to assassinate Putin, there is also one country in particular which could stand to benefit greatly from his assassination - Ukraine. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is continuing to grind on, and on multiple occasions Ukraine has shown that it has the capability to successfully strike targets deep inside Russia, so any occasion where Putin is outdoors particularly could place him at risk falling foul of a drone or missile strike, if Ukrainian intelligence were able to pinpoint where Putin was quickly and precisely enough. “He would be a drone target for the Ukrainians as well, if they could know exactly where he was when,”