Sacks cites Yale Budget Lab finding no discernible labor market disruption in first three years after ChatGPT launch.
“Yale Budget Lab did a study and they said that there was no discernible disruption, I mean, that's like a quote, to the labor market in the first three years after the launch of ChatGPT.”
Sacks questions AI CEOs predicting developer obsolescence while Anthropic recruits developers at $500,000 annually.
“I saw that I think Anthropix got numerous open job recs for software developers at $500,000 a year, which seems like a lot to pay someone whose job is going to be obsolete and not needed anymore in just a few months.”
Sacks says less than 5% of layoffs last year were attributable to AI according to Challenger Gray report.
“Less than 5% of the layoffs last year were attributable to AI. It was actually just a very small category.”
Sacks says AI infrastructure boom caused blue collar trade wages to increase 25-30% due to worker shortage.
“Wall Street Journal had a really good article about this. The construction industry is seeing a ton of demand.”
Sacks cites Yale Budget Lab finding no discernible AI labor market disruption three years after ChatGPT launch.
“There's a study by Yale, the Yale Budget Lab, which concluded no discernible disruption to the labor market in the first three years after the launch of SHAT GPT.”
Sacks claims vindication as AI job narrative shifted from loss to gains, matching his January prediction.
“And over the past week, you've now seen the narrative shift, I would say almost completely, towards that position.”
Sacks says Claude proficiency gives new grads a massive advantage similar to being the only one who knows spreadsheets.
“The advantage would be enormous. Now I think that that's probably a short term arbitrage because eventually everyone's gonna have to figure out how to use these tools.”
Sacks notes coding has near-complete AI automation yet software developers aren't being laid off as expected.
“We have almost complete automation of code writing. You would think that if you could look at this in a simple Malthusian way, all the software developers would be getting laid off right now.”