Gurley says all investors must hold strong opinions loosely because variables constantly change.
“And Yes. I think I think all investors have to work within that framework because things change.”
Gurley developed a mental exercise asking if he saw himself in his job thirty years from now.
“I had this I developed this mental exercise that I didn't realize I was doing, but at the time, but I said to myself well, a couple years in, we started a third project, looked like the second project, looked like the first project.”
Gurley argues older investors build cynical mental models that make them miss next disruptive thing.
“Two, I think, and this all goes back to the asymmetric optimism thing, as you get older, you build more mental models and you become more cynical.”
Gurley says Wall Street is the buyer of the product venture capitalists create through M&A or IPO.
“You know, I've always thought of Wall Street as the buyer of the product that venture capitalists create.”
Gurley defines complex systems as multi-variable non-linear systems that can behave unpredictably when one variable switches.
“And multi variable non linear systems are very hard to predict. They can behave one way for a long time, and then one variable can switch and they can behave another way.”