Gurley argues scaling law slowdown represents a surprise shift from Sam and Dario's expectations twelve months ago.
“The first thing that comes to my mind, and once again, I'm not asking you to agree with this, it's just like what's in my head, is that this is not the expectation that Sam and Dario had twelve months ago.”
Gurley says OpenAI and Anthropic promised linear or better scaling with 10x then 100x spending increases.
“there was a argument being made by, you know, OpenAI and Anthropic that, oh, you're just gonna see the next number drop and the next number's gonna be way better than the last number.”
Gurley identifies parameter count ceiling as key scaling law constraint where adding variables stops adding value.
“But when you take the variables up to a certain level, they they they it stops adding value. You just get too close to the fit.”