Gurley cites rumors of thirty billion dollar Nvidia investment into OpenAI, calls modern venture capital sport of kings.
“And so, there's rumors today of a $30,000,000,000 investment from Nvidia into OpenAi on top of everything they've already already raised and spent.”
Gurley cites rumors of thirty billion dollar Nvidia investment into OpenAI, calling it sport of kings venture capital.
“there's rumors today of a $30,000,000,000 investment from Nvidia into OpenAi on top of everything they've already already raised and spent.”
Gurley argues circular deals explain why Nvidia's multiple won't go higher despite strong growth.
“People wanna understand why the Nvidia multiple won't go higher. I think it's the circular deals. Like if they're not material, don't do them.”
Bg2 Pod
“with Blackwell, not only is it way, way, way faster, anywhere from 10 to 15 times on really large models for inference because they've optimized it for very large language models.”
Patel says Blackwell delivers five times performance TCO improvement in single year, accelerating LLM cost decline.
“At least that's what Blackwell is, and we'll see what Ruben does. But, you know, five x plus in a single year for performance TCO is an insane pace.”
Gurley notes NVIDIA's highest cost of goods sold is HBM memory, not TSMC silicon, which people don't realize.
“Their highest cost of goods sold is not TSMC, which is a thing that people don't realize. It's actually HBM memory, primarily SK for now also.”
Gurley warns 2026 is when the reckoning comes on whether AI infrastructure spending continues at current pace.
“It's gonna bring so many people with them. But 2026 is like where the reckoning comes. Right? But, you know, will will people keep spending like this?”
Gurley says NVIDIA differentiation is greatest at largest cluster size for LLM pre-training.
“One, the NVIDIA differentiation as we've talked about is greatest at the largest cluster size. So if pre training, once again, I only equate this to LLMs, you know, I don't think of FSD problem.”
Gurley explains NVIDIA's networking, NVLink, and CUDA advantages emerge specifically in the largest system deployments.
“That's when the networking piece thrives. That's where NVLink thrives. That's where CUDA really comes alive in the biggest systems that are out there.”
Gurley observes Elon Musk obtained roughly 10% of NVIDIA's quarterly availability for x.ai despite massive demand.
“And he walks in and takes what equate sounds looks like about 10% of the quarter's availability.”
Gurley reports Nvidia alone accounts for 5% of S&P 500 returns while 493 other companies contribute only 4%.
“The other mag six are responsible for 5%. And then the other 493 companies in the S and P 500 are responsible for 4% of the 14% year to date returns.”