Gurley states South Korea builds nuclear fission plants for one-fourth the US cost.
“South Korea, not China, South Korea can build a nuclear fission plant for one fourth the price that we can in The US.”
Gurley credits Pinker and others with shifting public perception on nuclear energy from negative to positive.
“Like like, the the the world has vilified this technology. It's amazing technology. It's clean technology.”
Gurley credits Pinker, Musk, and others for shifting nuclear energy perception from vilified to positive five years ago.
“Like like, the the the world has vilified this technology. It's amazing technology. It's clean technology. What Germany is doing is bad.”
Gurley says hyperscalers as nuclear customers may be 10x better than utilities, bringing more risk-tolerant innovators to SMR market.
“if the hyperscalers become part of the customer set for the nuclear startups that may be like 10x better than selling just to utilities alone.”
Gurley says U.S. nuclear plants cost $13 billion per gigawatt versus China's $2.5 billion for equivalent technology.
“We recently brought on two new plants in The U. S. Vogtle three and four in And the total cost of that was about 30,000,000,000 for 2.2 gigawatts. It turns out over $13,000,000,000 per gigawatt.”
Gurley says the most surprising finding is that nuclear industry insiders are not shocked by the 5X cost differential.
“So 13 to 2.5. Right, right. And that's a shocking Delta. Yes. And one of, I would say the single most surprising thing to me of all the discussions I've had in the past two weeks with everyone that's in this industry is how few people are shocked by that.”
Gurley notes South Korea achieves the same low nuclear costs as China while being a democracy and U.S. ally.
“South Korea is a democracy, a friend of The United States, they're at the same delivered price point as And they're doing it at scale and they're starting to export their technology.”
Gurley explains U.S. nuclear permitting takes ten years and the NRC charges hourly fees to regulate plants.
“So the separate federal and state environmental permitting processes in The US is onerous, lengthy, probably ten years for a nuclear power plant, expensive.”
Gurley explains the NRC charges fees per hour for regulation, making nuclear development expensive in the US.
“Most people don't know this, you have no reason to know this, but the NRC is a fee based regulatory. So you literally pay per hour to have them come regulate you.”
Gurley says SMR startups face $60 million in NRC fees just to get approval, citing NuScale's failure as example.
“NuScale had to start laying people off it's just tough. And the other tough part, the NRC, which we haven't talked much about, but the regulatory commission here in The U.”
Gurley argues nuclear regulation must be rewritten from scratch and major projects protected from litigation.
“if you want to go build this next generation level three plant, I think you've got to rewrite the regulation from zero ground up, like make it thinner and tighter and two, I think we've gotten to the point where we got to say, this is so important, you can't sue these people.”
Gurley argues eliminating lawsuit rights is necessary for important nuclear infrastructure projects to succeed.
“I think we've gotten to the point where we got to say, this is so important, you can't sue these people.”
Gurley proposes Manhattan Project approach with IP-free solutions borrowing from Navy nuclear experience to catch up with China and Korea.
“And then two, consider some type of Manhattan project like approach where you get out of the current environment, you get a lot of smart people thinking from first principles, you may be borrowed from what the Navy's done and consider open source or IP free solutions to get everybody on the same page.”
Gurley says China builds nuclear plants at $2.5B per gigawatt versus $13B in the US.
“The plants in China that are the equivalent level three fission plants right now are coming on board at 2,500,000,000 per gigawatt. Right. So 13 to 2.5.”
Gurley argues South Korea achieves China's nuclear costs as a democracy, making the comparison more relevant.
“South Korea is a democracy, a friend of The United they're at the same delivered price point as And they're doing it at scale and they're starting to export their technology.”
Gurley explains the NRC is fee-based and environmental litigation prevents nuclear development in the US.
“And so those costs are extremely high. The second thing is litigation. So multiple special interest groups, particularly environmental groups will sue to stop any development whatsoever.”
Gurley calls nuclear investment a sport of emperors requiring multi-billions to first revenue.
“If that's a sport of Kings, this is a sport of emperors. Like you may be multi billions to first revenue.”
Gurley proposes rewriting nuclear regulation from scratch and eliminating lawsuit rights for important projects.
“And if you want to go build this next generation level three plant, I think you've got to rewrite the regulation from zero ground up, like make it thinner and tighter and two, I think we've gotten to the point where we got to say, this is so important, you can't sue these people.”
Gurley suggests leveraging Navy SMR technology with hyperscaler backing as a mini Manhattan Project approach.
“Or for the SMR one by leveraging what's been done in the Navy, maybe getting these hyperscalers behind it. And maybe that's a mini version of a Manhattan project.”
Gurley says China has 300 nuclear plants in development versus zero in US, with 7-10 year build cycles.
“They have over 300 plants currently either being built or in development. We have zero, zero plants being built, I think 13 plants that are proposed, according to this data that we have here.”